Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.

Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:

• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.

The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.

• Bob Brown’s announcement he will exit parliament at the end of June creates a plum parliamentary vacancy for the robust Tasmanian Greens. Speculation first fell upon the party’s current leader in state parliament, Nick McKim, who if interested could have followed the path from state leadership to the Senate previously trodden by Bob Brown and Christine Milne. He immediately ruled himself out though, which has left Bernard Keane of Crikey, Sid Maher of The Australian and Gemma Daley of the Financial Review identifying Peter Whish-Wilson as the front-runner. Maher’s report describes Whish-Wilson as a “wine-growing, surf-riding economist”, while Daley offers that he “worked in equity capital markets for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne and for Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney”, before moving to Tasmania in 2004 and making a name for himself as the operator of Three Wishes Winery and a Gunns pulp mill opponent. Daley reports former state leader Peg Putt is “understood to have ruled herself out”, as has former Greenpeace International chief executive Paul Gilding. An ABC report also mentions Hobart deputy lord mayor Helen Burnet as a possible starter, while Sid Maher offers “Wilderness Society campaigner Geoff Law and Geoff Couser, candidate in the federal seat of Denison”.

• A fiercely contested battle over the order of the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket has ended with Scott Ryan taking second place at the expense of Helen Kroger, who is demoted to third, with Mitch Fifield as expected secure in first. Fifield won on the first round with 251 votes to 92 for Ryan and 71 for Kroger, before Ryan achieved a surprisingly strong 276 to 139 victory over Kroger on the second round. VexNews offers a revealing account from a no doubt interested party who says Ryan took advantage of new preselection rules introduced under the “Kemp reforms” to empower the party membership. These provide for one third of the vote to be determined by the members, but the system allocates six delegates to each federal division – rather an odd way of going about it, given that Liberal members appear to number only in the dozens across northern and western Melbourne. Ryan, it is said, has assiduously cultivated support in these “rotten boroughs” to turn the tables on the Kroger camp, which has its power base at higher levels of the party organisation.

• Nick Butterly of The West Australian reports some WA Liberals are “frustrated at the calibre of candidates coming forward” to fill its looming federal parliamentary vacancies: retiring Judi Moylan and Mal Washer in Pearce and Moore, and now, sadly, Senator Judith Adams, who succumbed to cancer on March 31. A further addition to the list is Senator Alan Eggleston, who has announced he will not seek re-election next year. The current form guide is evaluated as follows:

Among the most promising candidates being considered for either a Senate or Lower House spot are State Liberal Party treasurer Dean Smith and aerobatic pilot Drew Searle. Wanneroo councillor Ian Goodenough is so far the only declared candidate for Dr Washer’s seat, while Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and former Liberal staffer Alex Butterworth are also being touted in some corners as options for Senate spots. One Liberal said yesterday they would push for retiring WA Mines Minister Norman Moore to sit in the Senate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,913 comments on “Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Diogenes,

    [ The only characteristic Gillard beat Abbott on was being less arrogant. Imagine if the Libs had a decent leader. ]

    She’d probably hold her own there against Turnbull though! 😉

  2. dio
    There are no decent leaders in the Liberal Party. There is hardly anyone decent left in the Liberal Party. Abbott is all they have.

    As I pointed out before, the electorate has been taught to hate. It says a lot about us and none of it good.

  4. If the Labor-plus-Greens vote falls below 40% in Queensland and WA, and particularly if it does so in NSW as well, there will be no call for any double dissolution in the first term of a Coalition government, is what I was saying. The polls being where they are, this doesn’t seem inconceivable right now. Who knows though – maybe they’ll get better for Labor. Or worse.

  5. Tricot

    I think the horror of Qld (and NSW) is why people are starting to question the senate vote. It is quite reasonable and it is more than possible it could happen or worse. My personal nightmare in Qld is 3 Libs, 1 Katter, Green 1 Labor. Unlikely sure but possible (also tragic as Claire Moore is one of our best performers). However if the vote from last election in Qld carried through that outcome is conceivable.

  6. [Trust is a major factor in the polls. 54pc of people trust Abbott (hard to believe I know but there it is) as compared to 44pc for Gillard who’s trust has fallen 17pc since June 2010. It’s looking likely the die is cast.]

    This and many other similar comments sound more like the commenters trying to convince themselves than convince others.

    If you’re so sure, then why bother coming here and sounding like Nervous Nellies? Sit back, relax.

    Everything Labor has done will be repealed and Tony Abbot will be one of the greatest Prime Ministers we’ve ever had.

    The Coaliton Budget will balance, taxes will be cut, spending increased, confidence restored and unemployment will all but disappear as manufacturers come out of hiding and start producing again. Pretty-well overnight, too, if your hero Ray Hadley is to be believed.

    Suddenly Surpluses will be back in fashion, and not concocted, unnecessary accountancy tricks done only for base political purposes with no regard for the battling Australian people.

    All the other policies the Coalition has been cleverly keeping under wraps in case the government stole them will be revealed.

    Generous full pay PPL schemes will be introduced, and subsidized nannies will be provided at no cost to the Budget, while pointedly not introducing a Nanny State. Even though the Coalition will be looking after its better off citizens from the cradle to the grave, it will NOT be looking after its better off citizens from the cradle to the grave. It’s a miracle of truly Roman Catholic complexity. But there you go. Subsidized Nannies are proof that the Coalition won’t tolerate a Nanny State.

    Labor will be out of power all over the country, for 20 years, occupying mere spare shelf space in the various parliaments.

    Indonesia will toe the line, becoming a meek servant at the feet of Tony Abbott and the mighty Australian navy. The brown buggers just need a bit of stick and they’ll do the right thing.

    Cabinet meetings will be held regularly in indigenous camps across the Northern reaches. At the same time blacks will be put in their places by a freed-up media after the Racial Vilification laws are repealed.

    Work Choices will return. Maybe the name will be different, perhaps the Workers’ Paradise Flexibility Act?

    Tens of thousands of public servants will be sacked. This will result in no noticeable detriment to services or unemployment statistics. Only Budget savings will occur. It’s win-win when the axe is wielded.

    Our carbon emissions will dwindle to almost nothing as thousands of happy pensioners get to work planting trees. At the same time it will be revealed that carbon science really is crap, as global temperatures drop, just like Andrew Bolt told us they would.

    Superannuation can be rolled back. Minimum tax thresholds can be wound back to where they were in 2007. Company tax will be increased. Pensions reduced. Family benefits ditto. All as a result of the repeal of the hated Carbon Tax legislation. Business and the voters will LOVE Abbott even more for all this cost cutting.

    Teenagers will once again be free to booze themselves up on alcopops and will exercise their free will by being able to select which attractively-packaged cigarettes they choose to start smoking in their first step towards addiction and death by respiratory disease.

    Welcome to Paradise, Abbott-style. I don’t know why you guys sound so worried.

  7. William

    I agree. I also think it has a bearing on election timing. if the polls stay as bad (or worse for Labor in the new year, I think they may want an election in June. Better chance with a half senate I suspect

    What do you think?

  8. Milne is another bit of bad news for Gillard. Whenever she appeared jointly with either Brown, Rudd or Carr she always seemed the junior partner, overshadowed by those. If you didn’t know better you would have assumed those others were PM.

    Milne is going to make that look even worse. She will make gillard look even more weak and waffling.

    [#Newspoll Gillard: Approve 28 (-3) Disapprove 62 (+4) #auspol]

    No forgive and forget among the Australian population. They have marked her for the glue factory. How can she continue to maintain such abysmal personal ratings (and to make it worse, against a LOTO who is also marked down).

    And of course if they put Rudd in that poll you would see numbers that would make all in Labor cringe.

    Gillard isn’t needed, she has been putting in mostly Rudd’s agenda in any case. But they made their bed when Swan went into 3 year old tantrum mode in slagging Rudd, now they will have to lie in it. I suspect a mannequin would have better personal ratings, and improve Labor’s TPP.

    If they give Turnbull a more prominent role, such as shadow Treasurer thus improving their credibility ( such is public perception), then Labor’s primary will be fighting it out with the Greens.

    So strange, and so self destructive are the power brokers in their singled minded desire to protect their power within the party that it becomes before winning elections.

    Gillard has had a more calm run lately, I don’t expect that to last. And closer to election those set to lose their seats will be panicking, and their will be intense speculation just months from an election if Labor should dump her (aka Costello/Howard), which will just sink the ship a bit more at that time.

    Not much too look forward to for NSW/Fed/Qld Labor.

  9. DTT, the earliest a House plus half-Senate election can be held is in August. Since there’s no prospect for a double dissolution, the only prospect for an election earlier than that is if the government falls and there’s one for the House only.

  10. TP

    Labor steered full pelt onto the iceberg in February. Now it is just deck chairs and quartets as we wait for the ship to sink. Which faction will commandeer the lifeboats.

  11. William reminds me of an astronomer who observes an unstoppable Everest-sized asteroid heading for Earth in 12 months time and writes interesting peer-reviewed papers on whether its made of 4,000 gigatonnes of iron, or merely 2,500 gigatonnes of ice.

  12. William

    Sorry I meant June 2013. My point is if the polls look awful wise heads (if there are any) may feel it safer to call a HoR election in June 2013 and then hope that voter remorse will set in so that there is a bett outcome in the half senate election which I suppose would be may or June 2014.

  13. That hadn’t occurred to me, DTT. The usual expectation is that new governments get honeymoons rather than “buyers remorse”, so I’d doubt it’s occurred to the government either.

  14. Zoidlord , the Liberal trolls must be worried about Labor and the Greens ? its the same tripe poll after poll. Its 18 months to go and the rabbit has bolted out of the blocks , while Labor / Greens do all the heavy lifting , fixing all of Howard’s mess , GFC etc etc. I think they are worried about when to change the rabbit and the front bench and who with ? Heard that Newman wants in for Abbott’s job , now that he has fixed qld and the trains are running on time. Give him another 12 months, and he will be tapping on Abbott’s shoulder with a cane knife . When the Liberals lose the next election , the blood letting will be bad. It will be like a zombie movie. After that , the Greens will push the Liberal corpse in the history bin and be the opposition party to Labor .After the next election Christine Milne will be the 2nd Female PM. Only time will tell ?

  16. Lord Barry Bonkton’s subtle wit
    __________________
    The polls are”tripe”
    Newman wants Abbott’s job
    what a clown
    He must exist in another universe….reality is too painful to bear

  20. The pro coaliton media and supporters are disappointed again the polls are showing the coalition are not increasing ,
    they been dying for the laughable opinion polls to get to 60-40

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    More from the do-nothing government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/troops-out-next-year-pm-to-pledge-20120416-1x3t6.html
    Abbott must regret replacing the wisdom of Barnaby with Robb.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/swan-leaps-on-robbs-raterise-defence-20120416-1x2gs.html
    Well worth reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/lesson-for-parents-in-public-schools-20120415-1x1bq.html
    Alan Moir doesn’t think much of Swan’s surplus chances.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    The US has pink slime in its burgers, we have green permeate in our milk.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/waste-product-becomes-cream-of-the-crop-in-milk-wars-20120416-1x3ta.html#poll
    Trouble in the Collingwood camp? Pity.http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/what-becomes-of-the-broken-hearted-20120416-1x3so.html
    David Rowe’s imagery sometimes is beyond description.
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  23. So, we get an announcement of $27 million for the AWM followed by an announcement of a troop withdrawal.

    As noted previously, the AWM is a political institution.

  25. Good morning Bludgers.

    USA finally waking up to the reality of China today … sort of … more or less … the who dominates the Pacific Region bit; though apparently not the China owns a massive chunk of our horrendous national debt bit; with more than a hint of what the PM can/should do next G20 meeting: US wakes in fright as Asian bedfellow goes to hog the blanket

    [The difference between this language and Obama’s Canberra speech just six months ago could not be more stark, or more important. And tellingly, Clinton did not mention Obama’s speech once in her remarks. In the highly choreographed world of Washington speech-making, that is very significant. Either the administration as a whole is moving away from what Obama said, or Clinton herself is.

    And that gives Australia a great opportunity. Until now our leaders have been reluctant to talk seriously to Washington about all this. Now that they have started their own debate, our leaders may pluck up the courage to join in. No one can say its not our business – after all Obama delivered his big China speech in our Parliament.]

  26. OPT @ 125

    Prof White writes in his usual style but as always pragmatic, reasoned and fact based.

    Despite the criticism and largely being pointedly ignored on China over almost a decade he is not going anywhere or changing his mind.

  27. rummel @ 124

    [Re gillard pulling the troops out early.]

    Tony will, no doubt, let ‘slip’ he would have done it last year.

    On the overall aspect of it one ugly Nixon word comes to mind – ‘Vietnamization’.

  28. Meanwhile, in the UK, things regarding US v China in the Leader of the World stakes are interpreted differently.

    In the Brave New “real” IT World, The Guardian’s Battle for the Internet joins those old Cold War chestnuts Fail Safe , Dr Strangelove and Reagan’s Star Wars as the latest variations on a Stopping Armageddon Failsafe system: US and China engage in cyber war games: Exclusive: US and Chinese officials take part in war games in bid to prevent military escalation from cyber attacks.

    [The US and China have been discreetly engaging in “war games” amid rising anger in Washington over the scale and audacity of Beijing-co-ordinated cyber attacks on western governments and big business, the Guardian has learned.

    State department and Pentagon officials, along with their Chinese counterparts, were involved in two war games last year that were designed to help prevent a sudden military escalation between the sides if either felt they were being targeted. Another session is planned for May.

    Though the exercises have given the US a chance to vent its frustration at what appears to be state-sponsored espionage and theft on an industrial scale, China has been belligerent.

    “China has come to the conclusion that the power relationship has changed, and it has changed in a way that favours them,” said Jim Lewis, a senior fellow and director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) thinktank in Washington]

    [Lord, what fools these mortals be!]

    Puck: A Midsummer Nights Dream III ii

  29. BK

    I don’t the milk permeate is anywhere near the same league as “pink slime” .

    [Permeate is produced when milk is passed through a sieve (ultrafiltration) to separate the milk-sugar (lactose), vitamins and minerals components from milk protein.
    Dairy Manufacturers may adjust these components to produce a variety of different types of milk (e.g. low fat, high calcium, no fat) to meet customer demands, consistent with the food regulations. ]
    http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/Standard-Items/News/Dairy-News/Milk-a-natural-product.aspx

  30. CTar1

    [Tony will, no doubt, let ‘slip’ he would have done it last year]
    More likely Tones will speak of “abandoning” and of “not staying the course” or even a “cut and run”. Vietnamization is an excellent analogy and it will have the same result in Afghanistan. The only question being whether Karzai can avoid Najibullah’s fate.

  31. [As noted previously, the AWM is a political institution.]

    Repeating your opinion over and over and over doesn’t make it any more factual than Tones’ “STOP THE BOATS”.

    You need to take tips from Peta and Arthur – minimum number of words and all monosyllables.

  32. CTar1
    [Prof White writes in his usual style but as always pragmatic, reasoned and fact based.]

    I agree. That’s why I posted it before I posted The Guardian’s (presumably also preG20) interpretation of a different facet of the USA’s having to get its head around the multi-headed Hydra now confronting it. This small sample, way down the page, is more indicative of the current way Republicans see USA v China:

    [Frank Cilluffo, who was George Bush’s special assistant on homeland security, said the time had come to confront China.

    “We need to talk about offensive capabilities to deter bad actors. You cannot expect companies to defend against foreign intelligence services. There are certain things we should do if someone is doing the cyber equivalent of intelligence preparation of the battlefield of our energy infrastructure.

    “To me that’s off grounds. That demands a response. What other incentive could there be to map our infrastructure in the event of a crisis?

    “We have a stronger hand in conventional military and diplomatic means. We need to show them our cards. All instruments on the table. I think we do have to start talking active defence.”

    He said the US had to be proactive or, in time, people would start losing confidence in the integrity of the internet and computer systems.

    “If I don’t invest because I am afraid, if I don’t use the web because I am afraid, if you lose trust and confidence in those systems, the bad guys have won. Checkmate.”]

    Scarily, that US Good Guys, Others Bad Guys. It’s OUR game and only WE can play it. They have no right to do what we do, because it’s only Good if Good Guys do it. They are Bad Guys thinking could be the way the US goes after November elections.

  33. CTar1

    Do you really think there is no relationship between the timing of the $27 million for the AWM announcement and the troop withdrawal announcement?

    Making that link is not repeating an opinion. It is using new information that reinforces my position.

    OTOH, ignoring new information stagnates the thinking.

  35. BTW

    Labor has had four years to withdraw from Afghanistan. This decision is not about taking the troops out early at all. It is about taking them out late.

  36. OPT – Hiliary made another speech at the US Naval Academy early last week that gives some indications of their current thoughts on the US military.

    What she said there seems a little inconsistent with Hugh Whites proposition at first glance but not necessarily so in the context of a much increased ability of the Chinese to make life very difficult for the USN close to the Chinese coast. Probably not comforting ‘thoughts’ for Taiwan and a little difficult for the Administration in domestic politics.

  37. Ian Verrender’s talking about the banks:

    [How about this for a lark? ”We have decided to raise interest rates because no one is borrowing much these days and we need to notch up another record profit this year. The only way we can do that is to charge existing customers more while we sack a few thousand staff.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/banks-at-risk-of-believing-own-myths-20120416-1x3ul.html#ixzz1sF36YcUw

    But he could easily be talking about another industry:

    [How about this for a lark? ”We have decided to raise interest rates power prices because no one is borrowing much using a lot of electricity these days and we need to notch up another record profit pay a large dollar dividend to the state governments this year. The only way we can do that is to charge existing customers more while we sack a few thousand staff. blame the Carbon Tax for everything.”]

    It’s the “Two Birds With One Stone” theory: rack up power prices to support the dividends that financially stressed state governments (most of whom profess to not believe in publicly owned utilities) demand, and at the same time get rid of the federal government by blaming it all on the relatively tiny proportion of the increase represented by the Carbon Tax.

    Oh, and we get some new infrastructure too, but not nearly as much as the punters think they’re paying for. There’s always the “We Don’t Get Enough GST To Do Anything” whinge too, if we need it.

    Why spend the extra billions collected on real poles and wires when, for $20 million, chump change really, we can buy an advertising campaign that convinces people we’ve done the job… when we haven’t? Get the Shock Jocks to rave and rant, mobilise the chronically angry, start up a couple of astroturf organizations and you can do anything. Organize demos outside Parliament. Why not? Anything’s possible when it’s cheap.

    You can even convince the nation that it’s broke, going into recession, permanently in despair. The lame and the halt will be lamer and halter. No-one will be happy. There’s always someone we can put on the front page, whingeing about too little or too much… and with luck we can probably find a chancer who’ll whinge that although it’s it’s just right, the feds can’t possibly have had anything to do with it.

    All for $20 million, OK… say $40 million, tops.

    Bargain!

  38. [Labor has had four years to withdraw from Afghanistan. This decision is not about taking the troops out early at all. It is about taking them out late.]

    I wonder, BW, what you’re going to say when the next terrorist disaster comes out of Afghanistan?

  39. BB

    [I wonder, BW, what you’re going to say when the next terrorist disaster comes out of Afghanistan?]

    I would say that 10 years of war by christian countries against a muslim country, countless drone attacks with no accountability, night attacks by special forces with collateral damage, burning korans, corruption on a mega scale, the return of the opium crop big time, pissing on dead men, mass murder by a soldier, innumerable deals with local and regional mediaeval drug lords to paper over cracks for long enough to pull out of a lost war with faces ‘saved’ have guaranteed the development of a generation of wannabe terrorists. As you rightly point out, the question is not if. It is when.

  40. [Making that link is not repeating an opinion. It is using new information that reinforces my position.]

    Making a possible political decision ‘link’ between an increase for the AWM and the expected announcement on Afghanistan doesn’t change what ‘normal’ Australians think about war or military service.

    All it suggests is politicians sometimes make decisions for political purposes – That’ll be news to everyone.

  41. BTW, our army generals are worried, apparently: that the Government will reduce spending on the army once the army is out of the war in Afghanistan.

  43. CTar1

    [Making a possible political decision ‘link’ between an increase for the AWM and the expected announcement on Afghanistan doesn’t change what ‘normal’ Australians think about war or military service.

    All it suggests is politicians sometimes make decisions for political purposes – That’ll be news to everyone.]

    I see that you are now implicitly agreeing with the only point I was making in the post to which you were responding: that the AWM is a political institution.

  45. [As you rightly point out, the question is not if. It is when.]

    So, we should have done… what?

    (a) Sit back and take it?

    (b) ?

  46. China as a nation & civilsation has been in existence & survived for over 5000 years ago. USA is just a mere 300 years.

    Its biggest historical failure was the failure to embrace modern science & technology, whereas many of the basic science & technology were invented by the Chinese.

    Its failure to learn, copy and adapt from other nations. (The Japanese were the master of this)

    It’s failure to modernise its feudal social systems.

    China has finally woken from its historical amnesia and this is only a beginning.

  47. [The world’s largest tobacco companies will take on the Federal Government in the High Court today in a bid to overturn the Commonwealth’s new plain packaging laws.

    The Federal Parliament passed the new laws, which will require cigarettes to be sold in plain olive green packs, in November.]

    I’m no lawyer, but it does seem a ridiculous argument when you consider that the current packaging laws impinge on companies’ marketing abilities – the shock warnings etc.

    Any lawyers out there with a view on what the High Court might rule?

  49. [No mention that I can see of Newspoll on ABC news online. That would have to be a first, surely?]

    Maybe it’s getting boring?

    Dennis was on ABC Radio (Delroy) last night talking down the idea of a Surplus.

    It would be:

    (a) Phoney

    (b) Harsh

    (c) Unnecessary

    (d) Cynically political

    (e) Destructive

    (f) No use at all, a smoke-and-mirrors trick.

    Expect more of this.

  50. [I’m no lawyer, but it does seem a ridiculous argument when you consider that the current packaging laws impinge on companies’ marketing abilities – the shock warnings etc. ]

    Trade marks are still not obscured with all the warnings.

    The tobacco companies say they own the trade marks, so should be entitled to use them.

    The government says, yes, they own the trademarks, but this only entitles them to stop others from using them.

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