GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
• Bob Brown’s announcement he will exit parliament at the end of June creates a plum parliamentary vacancy for the robust Tasmanian Greens. Speculation first fell upon the party’s current leader in state parliament, Nick McKim, who if interested could have followed the path from state leadership to the Senate previously trodden by Bob Brown and Christine Milne. He immediately ruled himself out though, which has left Bernard Keane of Crikey, Sid Maher of The Australian and Gemma Daley of the Financial Review identifying Peter Whish-Wilson as the front-runner. Maher’s report describes Whish-Wilson as a “wine-growing, surf-riding economist”, while Daley offers that he “worked in equity capital markets for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne and for Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney”, before moving to Tasmania in 2004 and making a name for himself as the operator of Three Wishes Winery and a Gunns pulp mill opponent. Daley reports former state leader Peg Putt is “understood to have ruled herself out”, as has former Greenpeace International chief executive Paul Gilding. An ABC report also mentions Hobart deputy lord mayor Helen Burnet as a possible starter, while Sid Maher offers “Wilderness Society campaigner Geoff Law and Geoff Couser, candidate in the federal seat of Denison”.
• A fiercely contested battle over the order of the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket has ended with Scott Ryan taking second place at the expense of Helen Kroger, who is demoted to third, with Mitch Fifield as expected secure in first. Fifield won on the first round with 251 votes to 92 for Ryan and 71 for Kroger, before Ryan achieved a surprisingly strong 276 to 139 victory over Kroger on the second round. VexNews offers a revealing account from a no doubt interested party who says Ryan took advantage of new preselection rules introduced under the “Kemp reforms” to empower the party membership. These provide for one third of the vote to be determined by the members, but the system allocates six delegates to each federal division – rather an odd way of going about it, given that Liberal members appear to number only in the dozens across northern and western Melbourne. Ryan, it is said, has assiduously cultivated support in these “rotten boroughs” to turn the tables on the Kroger camp, which has its power base at higher levels of the party organisation.
• Nick Butterly of The West Australian reports some WA Liberals are “frustrated at the calibre of candidates coming forward” to fill its looming federal parliamentary vacancies: retiring Judi Moylan and Mal Washer in Pearce and Moore, and now, sadly, Senator Judith Adams, who succumbed to cancer on March 31. A further addition to the list is Senator Alan Eggleston, who has announced he will not seek re-election next year. The current form guide is evaluated as follows:
Among the most promising candidates being considered for either a Senate or Lower House spot are State Liberal Party treasurer Dean Smith and aerobatic pilot Drew Searle. Wanneroo councillor Ian Goodenough is so far the only declared candidate for Dr Washer’s seat, while Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and former Liberal staffer Alex Butterworth are also being touted in some corners as options for Senate spots. One Liberal said yesterday they would push for retiring WA Mines Minister Norman Moore to sit in the Senate.
[Mr Newman has argued his appointees are well-qualified for their roles.
Mr Costello served as treasurer in the Howard Government from 1996 to 2007, is currently on the Board of Guardians of the federal government’s Future Fund and is a columnist for Fairfax Media, publisher of brisbanetimes.com.au.]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/costello-to-earn-140000-in-taxpayerfunded-role-20120416-1x3u6.html#ixzz1sFEaiLGo
And we know Fairfax only employs the very best.
Fess
The Government will win although Geoffrey Robertson SC tried to put the kiss of death on it last night.
In a matter like this the states and territories can join in with submissions in the High Court. Qld apparently are doing that which I assume was a decision made by the ALP Attorney-General. I am surprised the new lot did not try and save some money and pull the pin on appearing.
[I see that you are now implicitly agreeing with the only point I was making in the post to which you were responding: that the AWM is a political institution.]
No more or less than the High Court, Medicare, the G-G, or any number of publicly funded bodies or institutions.
I do not agree with your opinion of the meaning of the AWM / other memorials / war graves to ordinary Australians.
Dont you find it insulting that interests are falling all over the world (some places like zero) but our Banks are increasing it
The new Queensland government has lost its first minister after two weeks in the job.
Campbell Newman dumps Police Minister David Gibson over claims he drove while suspended
POLICE Minister David Gibson has been forced to resign by Queensland Premier Campbell Newman over allegations he drove a motor vehicle while his licence was suspended.
The shock decision to remove Mr Gibson, who also held the community safety portfolio, followed a brief meeting with Mr Newman in his Executive Building office.
[The government says, yes, they own the trademarks, but this only entitles them to stop others from using them.]
Okay, I get it now. Thanks for that.
shellbell:
Thank you, I did not see Geoffrey Robertson last night. What did he say?
Obi is travelling OK:
Is likeable: Applies more to Obama 56% / Applies more to Romney 27% (CNN/ORC Poll)
In touch with problems facing middle class Americans: Applies more to Obama 51% / Applies more to Romney 33% (CNN/ORC)
Is in touch with the problems facing women today: Applies more to Obama 55% / Applies more to Romney 27% (CNN/ORC Poll)
Sydney living up to it’s reputation as the drive-by shooting capital with another 4 last evening.
[The Federal Government argues the claimed rights to packaging and marketing of tobacco products have always been subject to Commonwealth, state and territory laws.]
It’s similar with alcohol.
Abbott now on 774, for all those who want to rush to their radios or online streams.
If Canberra is the 2nd airport to Sydney. The world would laugh its head off for the sheer stupidity, which i call BOFness
zoomster – No doubt with first class flights, accommodation and generous out-of-pocket allowances, support for them during their ‘audit’ it will cost a lot more than the nominal $140,000 for the sneerer.
Morning
Not sure if already linked
[THE Labor MP Craig Thomson might not have spoken to NSW Police but he insists Fair Work Australia hand its report to the law so a credible and thorough investigation of the allegations against him can be conducted.]
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/political-news/thomson-confident-fair-work-australia-report-clears-him-20120416-1x3sy.html#ixzz1sFJ8ejPD
Have you ever heard our Banks say: “We are reducing the interest rate because the funding costs have come down”. Pigs will fly
The Finnigans
What will the banks do if the RBA reduces the cash rate by .5% in two weeks?
Vic, they will pass on 0.2 and pocket the rest. easy peasy
The personal ratings for the PM are getting worse and improving for Abbott. Obviously the voters like the sound of funding nannies
The Finns
I think you are right
victoria:
Abbott’s polling appears to improve when he is absent from the daily news cycle.
Oh dear, While Spain is on the brink of disaster King Juan Carlos went on a elephant hunt in Botswana – http://www.smh.com.au/world/spaniards-livid-over-king-juan-carloss-elephant-hunt-20120417-1x49w.html#ixzz1sFLhDrew
victoria, in the absence of any new alarming data I think for the RBA to reduce rates by 500 points would require a big turnaround in their thinking, since people would ask why they didn’t reduce them by 250 points in the past few months and another 250 in May instead. It would look like an admission of error and also that they’d caved in to recent criticism. If they come down by 250 I wouldn’t be surprised if ANZ, at least, passes on the full cut. Their rise last week might have been in anticipation of doing just that.
Abbott getting favourable comments from 774 listeners for talking about policy rather than bagging the government.
I am pleased with the results of this poll. Why? No downward movement on 2PP in the margin of error territory. Remember the polls we are looking out for are still to come. As pensioners get their $250.00 and others get their increases and tax cuts you know that approvals will go up and it will not be margin of error territory. This process will continue and in November we will know it the govern well and the rest will follow strategy has worked.
[No doubt with first class flights, accommodation and generous out-of-pocket allowances, support for them during their ‘audit’ it will cost a lot more than the nominal $140,000 for the sneerer.]
Add on hammock allowance and tip.
Scrolling through last night, see Mick 77 and Mod Lib in full cry, Debonay and BlueGreen should start really supporting ALP now that they will be withdrawing the troops earlier than anticipated ?? Good comments Puff
BTW I have an invitation to apply to go the Climate Debate of Q&A on 26th April, as I live 500 km away and have visitors a bit hard, has anyone else had this and can apply to attend?
Visitors leave on Thursday then almost a week break before next lot, so hope to do a bit of posting
I tweeted Paul B last night asking him where the report on Robb supporting banks disappeared to he replied that it was on Adelaide Brisbane and Perth where he reports? Interesting not on Sydney or Melbourne???
Fess
Geoffrey Robertson qc said he had read the papers (he must have some spare time in his hands) and that government would win.
He has a habit of backing the odd unsuccessful cause in his time (assange) but does do so very eloquently.
BB
[So, we should have done… what?
(a) Sit back and take it?
(b) ?]
That is, rightly, the $64 question.
Essentially the problem could be defined as the west finding unacceptable an organisation that wages terrorist attacks against civilian centres and the west finding unnaceptable a government that shelters such organisations. (The west would naturally have to start the narrative at 9/11 because what the west has done to the muslim world over the past century cannot possibly be taken into account…unless you think that history matters.)
One answer to this question is that the west spends a decade at war, around a trillion dollars, and the blood of several tens of thousands of people and psychological damage to hundreds of thousands of western troops and several tens of millions of Afghanistanis, to achieve what, exactly? I assume that no-one seriously contemplates that the ISI, the Taliban and their evil spawn won’t be running Afghanistan within a year or two. I assume no-one seriously contemplates that the opium crop will drop from its current record levels. I assume that no-one seriously contemplates that women will have achieved their rightful place…. etc, etc, etc.
The original motivation for the US was revenge for 9/11. This revenge targetted Al Qaeda. Since Al Quaeda trained openly in Afghanistan with the support of the then Taliban government, a decision was made to invade Afghanistan. I won’t go into the murky US role in the development and evolution of the some of the top people in both Al Quaeda and elements of the Taliban (see the US role in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, for example) because this would ruin a ‘good’ story.
Within a matter of months of the invasion of Afghanistan Al Qaueda had largely removed itself to Pakistan, and the Taliban Government was destroyed, with most of its surviving leadership also removing itself to Pakistan. Pakistan’s governance is chaotic. The ISI essentially runs a government within a government. As does the military, with a substantial cross over between the ISI and the military. So Al Quaeda and the Taliban, found succour, support and resources from an ostensible ally while Afghanistan itself was an unholy mess. Further, there are over 10,000 madrassahs in Pakistan where the youngsters get fed daily horror stories about what the west is doing in Afghanistan. So it is no just Afghanistan we are talking about now. It is Pakistan as well.
Most of the leadership of Al Quaeda has been killed. Its organisationl structures and funding arrangements have been weakened. Younger leaders are in place doing jihad, dreaming of the big kill, etc, etc. but their capacity to do so is severely compromised, compared with ten years ago. But there is a rub. Even if Al Qaeda were to be destroyed completely, the factors that give rise to Al Qaeda are still there, only stronger because of the Afghanistan War. As for the Taliban, it will win the war in Afghanistan.
So, what were the choices following 9/11?
(1) do nothing – probably not tenable, poltically domestically. Outcome: domestic opinion assuaged but with growing antipathy to the war in both the US and Australia which is forcing both countries out of Afghanistan.
(2) continue to ignore causative factors – causative factors reinforced. There is plenty of evidence to demonstrate that the overall situation is worse rather than better.
(3) invade Afghanistan for 10 years, fail, radicalise muslims in Pakistan for ten years and then leave with the overal situation worse than when it started, less Al Qaeda revenged. The trillion dollars would come in handy in the US right now as well. Afghanistan (and Iraq) have been massive economic defeats.
(4) revenge Al Qaeda by targetted hit and run attacks, payments to warlords, include drones, cruise missiles, price on heads etc, etc. This to be combined with a major strategy to alter the basic relationships with the muslim world. (Essentially this is what did the trick on Al Qaeda in the end). It is just that the west got itself mightily confused in the process by conflating Afghanistan with Al Qaeda.
In terms of whether Labor made a late rather than an early decision to withdraw the troops – a no brainer, really. As soon as the west pulls out of Afghanistan, whenever it does, the ISI, the Taliban and its offshoot and a motley collection of mediaeval warlords will get back to running Afghanistan. Whether Labor had pulled the troops out four years ago or in two years time will not make a skerrick of difference to this outcome.
But then, it is often the fate of Australia to fight wars where it does not make any difference. We tell ourselves all sorts of stories to make the waste palatable, when we should really be saying to ourselves: it is time we kicked the war habit.
triton
What policies is Abbott talking about?
[Boerwar
Posted Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 8:11 am | Permalink
BTW, our army generals are worried, apparently: that the Government will reduce spending on the army onc ]
Well, that’s a positive if true. It also suggests that the pressure to produce a budget surplus may not be a bad thing if it leads to considering these options.
mari
Good to hear from you. Can you give the invitation to someone else?
Here in Melbourne the big news is the rift in the Collingwood FC. Maybe that is why Robb’s comments on interest rates did not make it on channel 10 here. i would not know though, as I do not watch commercial news
[BTW, our army generals are worried, apparently: that the Government will reduce spending on the army]
Yep, they worried about the same thing in USA.
Once the Russians are coming , the Russians are coming (they even made a movie of this)
Now, it’s the Chinese are coming , the Chinese are coming
Abbott not playing politics on troop withdrawal.
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 8:13 am | Permalink
Good morning all.
No mention that I can see of Newspoll on ABC news online. That would have to be a first, surely? ]
Maybe Gillard is learning to ‘scoop’ the sideshow story leads. The prelude about ending the Afghanistan troop commitment may have stole all the thunder.
Morning All
Another ordinary poll – I can’t see anything changing without a trigger. I’m getting sick of waiting for it to be an Abbott stuff up so hopefully it’s a post budget bounce – hard to see if they are going to cut as hard as it seems to achieve a budget surplus that will be described as “cooking the books”. Carbon tax compensation hitting not much after might help as well. Finally, the reality of the carbon tax needs to give them a genuine bounce – i.e. when the sky doesn’t fall in.
Overall though, if the polls aren’t better by Christmas Labor will need to do something drastic – i.e. Julia stepping down
As to interest rates – I can’t see the RBA cutting them days before the budget – they will want to see what’s there first.
[I wonder, BW, what you’re going to say when the next terrorist disaster comes out of Afghanistan?]
Blo^dy Alexander of Macedon! If he’d been content to stay at home, none of this would have happened. Maybe. Perhaps.
Meaning the area’s been a right pain in the ars^ ever since, and that Romans and all who came after them should have embraced the Great Fabian (aka Cunctator’s) warning to idiots with great generals & supposedly invincible armies inc heavy cavalry (even elephants) who invade a country far from their own: You can’t beat the locals who embrace my guerilla warfare strategies!
One would think, after C20’s experiences in Ireland, Leningrad, Stalingrad, Indonesia, Vietnam, Kenya, Rhodesia, etc etc etc, Australian governments would at least have learnt that.
guytaur
The polls are Still crap for Labor and the PM ratings are so bad now. Will they improve in the second half of the year? I hope so.
I forgot to mention that I did march against the Afghanistan War before it started. It was a lonely business. We were regarded as being pro-terrorist and pro- bin Laden. How easy things must have seemed then to the war mongers in our society!
There were not many of us at all.
I thought then that the Afghanistan War would certainly fail. This was not too difficult to figure out, actually. It required only a modicum of knowledge of Afghanistan’s history and some common sense.
I wonder whether the AWM will present as part of its exposition of the Afghanistan War the story of those of us who braved social disapproval, contumely and the risk of losing our jobs in order to try and stop Australia entering yet another foolish war?
I bet not.
The Finnigans @ 182
Yep – instead they’ll switch spending to the Navy. Actual overall Defense budget spending reduction unlikely.
Boerwar
Basically Oz do whatever the US tells us to. That is why we were in Iraq and Afghanistan, Vietnam and anywhere else. I am concerned about the future re Iran and Israel. All I can say is watch this space
victoria, I was only half listening. First was Afghanistan, which is pretty easy for him to deal with, since it’s bipartisan. He didn’t want to say much because he wants to wait for Gillard’s statement. Faine pushed him a bit on funding his promises and getting rid of the mining tax. I forget how he defended it, but the main thing that listeners picked up was that he talked about his own plans instead of sinking the boot into the government at every opportunity. It was a softish interview apart from Faine pressing him on funding promises three or four times in a row when he wasn’t satisfied with the answer.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-whispering-revolution-20120416-1x3nw.html
If China became a democracy would it become a better superpower for the world than the US?
Thanks triton
Looks like Abbott is changing his modus operandi somewhat. His personal ratings in the polls is improviing so it is working so far. Looks to me as if Abbott is going to remain LOTO into the future.
oops “are improving”
Re My earlier post about scrolling through earlier psts and the usual suspects with their anti ALP comments I see DTT and TP also joined in, what a wonderful night shift there is, are they afraid of daylight?
The context of our involvement in this Afghanistan war will not be mentioned in MSM as matters finally come to an end, for us. Mad decision by Howard Liberals now cleaned up by PM Gillard and it will go under the radar.
[Howard had first met US President George W. Bush in the days before the 11 September terrorist attacks and was in Washington the morning of the attacks.[66] In response to the attacks, Howard invoked the ANZUS Treaty and said that the invocation of the treaty “demonstrates Australia’s steadfast commitment to work with the United States.” In October, he committed Australian military personnel to the war in Afghanistan.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_howard
Well, in a bit of irony, I have just taken a nice hot batch of ANZACs out of the stove. I will munch an ANZAC with a cup of Billy Tea on the day…
I wonder if there is any nation in the world that takes a holiday named after an army corps and has biscuits named after same?
Or are these warlike cultural attributes peculiar to our country?
[a Senate-tacular review]
and so it is, William. A new word, Bludgers, for future goings on in the red room.
j2
You make an interesting point. I was trying to figure out how many of our wars were started by the Liberals/Nationals and their predecessors and cleaned up by Labor governments. There must be a few.
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 9:02 am | Permalink
mari
Good to hear from you. Can you give the invitation to someone else?
Here in Melbourne the big news is the rift in the Collingwood FC. Maybe that is why Robb’s comments on interest rates did not make it on channel 10 here. i would not know though, as I do not watch commercial news]
I was wondering that too, any Sydney PB interested it is at Ultimo studio