Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 71
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  1. Unfortunately Poss hasn’t updated Pollytrend in the last few months but I’m pretty sure there has been a trend to the Libs from the longstanding 54-46 polls.

    Perhaps William could offer a BludgyTrend graph.

  3. my say

    I would like to know how many mobile phones were rung by Morgan in this poll. That is have they found a mobile phone directory? If not we know that the respondents were at home at 6pm or so. Dinner time.
    I also think that 697 is not enough for a National Poll. I think it should be at least 2 000 to get enough in each State to account for geographic difference.

  5. [Unfortunately Poss hasn’t updated Pollytrend in the last few months but I’m pretty sure there has been a trend to the Libs from the longstanding 54-46 polls.]
    You are right re the trend, but why the change?

  8. [So, his verdict: pretty good, but Labor will ruin it because Labor ruins everything.]

    That is the line the fed member here runs so looks like it will run bigtime for the election. Labor will need to counteract it.

  9. [Bushfire
    I assume that is ironic or you may be sticking your feathers back in with superglue.]

    I only include smilies when posting on American blogs.

  10. my say,

    I’m as certain as can be that Tom Watson will put out “How Murdoch Lost His Marbles Empire.”

  11. Dio I did a rough trend over the past 10 polls and it came out 56/44 but I’m sure Poss will be more scientific. Incidently the primary vote averages out 47/30.

  12. Victor a commense would tell us, thst people see these polls and think that way
    Its just peer pressure, you think it your self, so do half the labor people here
    No different to the melbourne cup, for next year
    People have their favourite horse that is discussed in the media, so they a ll agree

    Its a stupid question. I think Australia will 15 gold medals in tbe olympics but i bet they dont

  13. [OzPol Tragic
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink
    mari – you’ll be able to keep us informed of how it is all seen from that side of the world among your rellies, friends, etc It will still be running full bore while you are in the UK.

    Going back mari. Lucky you. I think I’ve probably had my last OS trip. I’m almost uninsurable. Never mind. Had lots of great trips. Worth every cent. OH & I agreed that, if we had our time again, we’d go more often & to hell with “earnest” “sensible” things!

    Look forward to your impressions of changes since the last trip, though the Olympics may distort the picture. Enjoy street music, theatre, concerts etc. And don’t forget The City’s pub/ cafe gossip. It’s always seemed to me to be ahead of what’s happening. I almost did a Hi-5 when Spooks turned up as part of the On smart-card hacking! The City was on the money well ahead of the time as usual!]
    From other blog, thank you so much for your lovely thoughts, yes you are right about going O/s we travelled a lot and now it is me, memories are wonderful. My daughter is in Edinburgh with 3 boys, 1/2 Scottish and 1/2 Australian. Also see my relatives over there, I am Australian born but of English parentage

  14. Gary

    [You are right re the trend, but why the change?]

    Dunno.

    According to Nate Silver, the “win expectation” question is a very good predictor of who will win an election close to an election but this far out I don’t think it means much.

    Talking of Nate, here is an article he wrote on how important favorability ratings are in the US. Once again, they are very important but mainly when close to the actual vote.

    We probably can’t extrapolate the US to Oz in that area as they are directly voting for a POTUS and we vote for a party, so the leaders ratings don’t necessarily reflect what we are voting for.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/do-romneys-favorability-ratings-matter/#more-30362

  16. BH @ 58

    So, his verdict: pretty good, but Labor will ruin it because Labor ruins everything.

    That is the line the fed member here runs so looks like it will run bigtime for the election. Labor will need to counteract it.

    It is past time Labor spokespersons started calling him out for lying and just making stuff up. As bluntly as that.

  17. [Concera Vota ‏ @conceravota
    Channel 10 obviously didn’t tell these oldies what the policy actually IS. FMD our media is completely FUCKED! (And I don’t usually swear)]

    What did they say?

  19. Back again Bludgers. I had to duck out to get my cherubs and run some errands. Thanks for all the tips in the previous thread. Much appreciated. As always, Bludgers deliver a bundle of wisdom rarely found.

  20. [lizzie
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
    Concera Vota ‏ @conceravota
    Channel 10 obviously didn’t tell these oldies what the policy actually IS. FMD our media is completely FUCKED! (And I don’t usually swear)

    What did they say?]

    Hugh R of course managed to find some oldies who don’t like the package, wonder why Paul B isn’t on ch 10 Sydney or Melbourne very often anymore. One Guess I would think

  21. So how does that match the voting intention
    With a 10 different 5 out of 100 so i read here last week need to change their mind,
    And with a 4 percent error who knows

    10 points difference 18 months away doesnt worry me at all

    I rather it like this than in front frankly 10 points with a margin of error probably is 6 points
    , remember
    60/40 evaperated very quickly,
    If u are to far in front u have to keep pleasing people all the time
    No slip ups remember bats and halls

  22. Run Joe, Run is the chilling headline that will be giving Peta Credlin nightmares. The press love leadership stories, it is the lazy political journos golden goose.

    So now it is out of the bag, one journalist has opened the Lib leadership can of worms.

    Fun times for all.

  23. The poll was taken 13-15th

    which is nearly a week before what is happening with the liberal party now

    If polls were taken this weekend, 52-48 would be my pick

  24. mari – Enjoy your trip.

    The prime topic when I was there last year was declining real estate values or maybe the possibility that it would happen – that might have been local to where I was!

  25. Greens Party’s position on proposed superannuation cuts:
    http://christine-milne.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/government-right-tackle-super-tax-concessions-greens-offer-way-forward
    [The Greens are offering the Government full cooperation in reforming superannuation tax concessions, as speculated on in today’s press, as a matter of equity and as a revenue measure.

    Over half of the concessions on superannuation contributions go to the wealthiest 20% of income earners. To address this inequity the Greens have previously proposed taxing contributions at a person’s marginal rate minus 15%.

    “I am writing to the Treasurer today to offer the Greens’ full cooperation to work with the government to deliver reform on superannuation that restores fairness and frees up revenue for the benefit of the whole community, ” Australian Greens Leader, Senator Christine Milne, said.]

  28. mari

    Thanks for that. I didn’t realise Paul B was not universal. I’ve only recently watched Ch10 news headlines because I thought he was a bit objective, but I don’t think I’ll bother any more.

  29. [It is past time Labor spokespersons started calling him out for lying and just making stuff up. As bluntly as that.]

    We do, bemused. He has a direct link with editor of papers. We are lucky to get one to the editor printed in a blue moon so try to comment on the web but surprise, surprise .. difficult.

  32. I imagine that the average punter would not have a clue that Messers Hockey, Robb and Abbott have been busy contradicting each other.

  33. BH @ 3887 on previous thread

    [I think too many in the Libs lost their soul when they voted for Abbott]

    Yes – and the problem Talcum has is that the ‘large’ Liberal supporters/donators don’t believe that he is can be ‘controlled’.

    So they’re left with a rabble/rAbbott. 🙂

  34. Ducky,

    Uncle William and Uncle Poss are talking dirty on twitter about some obscure statistical argument about the poll.

  37. Given that some posters yesterday and in the past have complained that the Greens Party never attack the Coalition 😆 I am thinking of regurlarly posting items that put the lie to this claim.

    http://christine-milne.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/hockey%E2%80%99s-vision-dog-eat-dog-australia
    [The Greens will vigorously defend a vision for Australia that sees us properly and fairly support each other and provide universal public health and education against Joe Hockey’s vision of a dog-eat-dog world where short term profits are more important than people and planet.

    “Whilst we believe the budget needs to be in surplus over the economic cycle, this year is a political deadline, not an economic one, and surplus should not be achieved by driving families and our environment deep into debt.”]

  38. To lighten the atmosphere here…

    Polar bears are not an Arctic version of Brown bears, but both Polar and Brown are descended from a common ancestor (DNA proof). Polar have survived previous changes in climate and may not therefore be as vulnerable to AGW as was feared.

  39. Boerwar many would be aware of his original sentiments but few would be aware of how badly he handled the LL interview.

  41. What I wrote on twitter was spurred by the fact that it in no way reflected the actual policy or its aims.

    I am getting so frustrated with our appalling media I’m thinking of no longer being a pacifist.

    People wonder about the PMs message getting through when the media garbles it and then puts Abbott on to trash it (when he admitted he hadn’t read the policy yet). I don’t think CH 10 mentioned any of the actual detail except that means testing is involved and reallocation of monies.

    All the groups are grateful it is finally what they want and what productivity commission has recommended.

    I am barking madddddd!!!!!!!!!!

  42. Guytaur agree

    I think the person in the know his maguire bob i think he is an insider.

    I have been saying for a few years polls can not possibly be the same
    Since young ones moved out with mobile phones
    i googled it once , telstra are losing many many landlines per month
    And as for ess, u have to register to be polled ihave one in my in box from the company they use, i cannot be bothered. Going all through their non political questions till i get to the politics so i stopped filling them out some times 30 min.

  44. Boerwar @ 82

    A few coalition and neutral supporters have notice where i am, and they are very shocked the libs are self destructing

  45. I suppose the polls were taken before the announcement of an early troop withdrawal. But then would it have made a difference? People seem to be asleep.

  48. I see BOF is serious about fighting the bikie gangs. Not having their colours up in pubs will make a huge difference.

  49. Davidwh,

    The only problem is you can only talk dirty about it on sites like this. Definitely not good dinner party conversation unless you want them all to go home!

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