Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,189 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 38 of 44
1 37 38 39 44
  1. OPT

    [OTOH, it’s scathing about the whistleblower/s who launched the investigations into Craig Emerson – and were openly lauded and supported by Abbott & other Opposition members – the many millions they (esp Williamsons) paid their own companies for services & goods. ]

    I thought Williamson was on the same side as Thomson. And he certainly wasn’t the whistleblower.

  2. BK
    I do hope that you have your exit arrangements in order so that your offspring don’t have to go the civil litigation route to get your collection of cricket memorabilia, chewing gum cards and Phantom comics back from any old stray shrew that happens to have caught your eye.

  3. Aguirre:

    Believe me, I am not saying that Gillard going will lead to a magic recovery of support. I think the ALP are mightily screwed and I find it hard to see any pathway to recovery. Could be wrong, but my political instincts are usually not too bad!

    IMO If Gillard is put up again at the next election, as the best and brightest ALP person in the country, then you can get used to Liberal governments for the rest of this decade at least. That is the level of disaster awaiting the ALP.

    Steam ahead if you wish, hoping for things to be better once the ship passes x, y, or z island along the way- fine. We heard it all before: New Senate, Bills passing, New Year, Budget, July 1st etc etc etc. Things are only getting worse for the ALP not better as we steam ahead at full pace towards the inevitable iceberg….

  4. Bludgers I see so much criticism of the media here, which in one sense pleases me, since I view the commercial mass media as one of the chief architects of the problems we have as a democracy and a society. Sometimes your criticisms are just the inevitable delusional brainfartings of biased intellectually mediocre partisans, and that is less pleasing, but I am used to it now. I barely even mention it any more.

    But, my point is, so many of you here seem to loathe news limited (and fairfax too in many cases) and you want all sorts of things done to them, and I have no problem with this. But what I do have a problem with is you wanting all this and then saying that you’re going to vote Labor, when Labor has done and will do nothing about the media problem.

    Why do you all bother, seriously? Why do you bother with the Labor Party still, after all the huge moves it has made to the right, both in terms of its policies and its culture. They’re all friends you know. Your Labor heroes who you cheer on from behind your computer screens are actually friends with all these media and Coalition people you hate.

    The whole thing is a scam – all the conflict is manufactured and fake. And you all buy into it. You are the archetypal “useful idiots” upon which this sham of a political system depends. When you send your little emails or make your phone calls to Labor MPs offices they patronise you for a few minutes and then laugh at you after you hang up.

    So why do you bother? Because you think Labor are the lesser of the two evils? Is this really enough though? Is being the lesser of the two evils really enough for you to give so much commitment, emotionally and physically? To me the lesser of two evils is worthy of a grudging vote every three years, not all this passion. It is misplaced.

    I have more respect for people who back the greens. At least they would have the balls to actually do something about the things you all care so much about. Murdoch wouldn’t know what had hit him. He just laughs at Gillard and Labor, while his papers easily maneuver them out of office without them uttering hardly a peep.

  5. [You expect the media to tell the voters the truth of that?]

    Shock of the Day, Guytaur! The ABC did!

    [Whilst not mentioned in the report, allegations about the misuse of credit cards – including for the use of prostitutes – have been circling former Labor MP and former HSU boss Craig Thompson.

    Mr Thomson has repeatedly denied the allegations, but was nonetheless asked by Prime Minister Julia Gillard to quit the Labor Party and sit as an Independent MP over the weekend.

    Mr Thomson has been quick to point out his absence from the report.

    “I left the HSU in 2007 and I have never been a part of an organisation named ‘HSU East’,” he said in a statement.

    “I understand that Mr Williamson and Ms Jackson were responsible for the finances of HSU East at this time.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-30/interim-temby-report-into-hsu-east-branch-released/3981128?WT.svl=news0

    All that Liberal carrying on Abbott’s abusive slander, Brandis’s theatrics, sundry other threats, etc, and Craig Thompson doesn’t rate a mention!

    So how the hell can it be bad for Labor as the media keeps repeating, if CT isn’t even in the report?

    It’s the ones Abbott hailed as heroes that pillaged millions!

    Unbelievable. The insane world of Australian MSM and those who work in them! Madder & more twisted than Through the Looking Glass and 1985 put together; with Tony Abbott a twisted mutilation of the mad Red Queen!

  6. I have a suspicion that the reporter doing the Mormon 4 Corners story tonight is the same guy that has am memorable explosive meltdown when doing a similar story on Scientology.

  7. [I thought Williamson was on the same side as Thomson. And he certainly wasn’t the whistleblower.]

    I think one of the players claimed that, I’m not sure anything that comes out of the HSU is worth the paper it is written on, if they said tomorrow was Tuesday I’d be after a second opinion.

  8. [The downside of it is of course having you on the verge of orgasm for another year and a half. But it’s a small price to pay.]

    Na, Aguirre, they splurt and they splurt. More than a minute and a half is the best effort @Menzies House this year..

  9. OMG, Andrew Denton has gone down market and do a panel game show on #TheirABC with celebrities like @annabelcrabb , what a pity

  10. Boinzo @ 1839

    Bemused. I did shout at the tele while Bernie was talking. Does that count?

    I was gobsmacked.

    It was pretty damning, but I thought he certainly got it wrong on the intrinsic merits of HIP & BER.

  11. LSL,

    I see your post follows Mod Libs.

    I have difficulty deciding which of you is the evilller of the two lesses.

  12. Jackson was the whistleblower who Abbott lauded and she’s not mentioned.

    Williamson was National President of the ALP.

  13. [Fraser is clearly not in favour of a surplus and pointed out that it had government fiscal policy working in an opposite direction to the RBA if the RBA drops interest rates tomorrow as expected.]

    Which may be more about switching roles.

    Govt to accumulate surplus after previously concentrating on stimulus but not really having enough in the kitty to keep on with it for now.

    RBA to use interest rates to stimulate economy for a while since they have room to move after keeping them relatively high.

    Also, that role switch may have the effect of bringing the AUD down which is probably the most important thing.

    So not necessarily a bad thing?

  14. BK – don’t get too excited but Mirrabella is itching to get stuck into things tonight.

    Tony Jones – protecting Peter Reith re the telecard issue.

  15. One of the endearing things that I just love about our right-wing commentators is their complete and utter support for Julia Gillard. I don’t think enough of us here on PB have acknowledged or, indeed, thanked them for the sterling effort they have to date produced.

    Their supposed mission in life is to rid the land of the Labor Government. To, as they so eloquently put it at times, save ordinary Australians from the bad Government. A government that, according to their life values, is punishing the many, varied, downtrodden, witless and exploited signatories to revenue neutral family trusts. The pain they must feel. Chronic indeed when coupled with the added trauma of explaining to vociferous shareholders in Berne, Paris, New York, Houston, Gstaad, London, Johannesberg and many many others, that they’ll have to forego a small percentage of profit in order for the small businesses’ that supply their Australian operations to enjoy a modest tax cut. It really must cut them to the core.

    Without all the confected hoopla, newspapers may actually begin to print news. Perhaps the public, when walking past a newstand, may actually buy a newspaper with a positive headline….no…perhaps we should start with a truthful one. One that maybe says….

    [ Gerry Harvey..{ pictured} shows his emotion as all the chickens he once, in a fit of misguided and vindictive pique scattered to the winds, have returned tenfold. Mr Harvey remarked that he didn’t see it coming and, self evidently, it was Julia Gillards fault the chickens and associated feather dusters returned. En masse. Mr Harvey, visibly upset, cut short the interveiw in order to telephone a Mr Murdoch. Apparently his sole source of both inspiration and commiseration. Mr Harvey was heard muttering something about chaff bags, Jonesy, Tones, foreheads and kicking. We have been assured it was the stress talking. Mr Harvey has been under some pressure of late. ]

    That’s just a sample of the damage Julia Gillard has, apparently, wrought on the Australian nation. Not to mention PPL, NDIS, Plain Packaging of tobacco, Carbon trading, lower tax threshold for low income(me) earners and all the rest. So, to all of Julia Gillards right wing supporters I ask this….

    Why???

    By any measure of your life and societal values Julia Gillard is wreaking havoc. Surely it would be in your own best interests to ensure that she does lead Labor to the next election? I mean, let’s be real here. If, as you believe, that the next election is won….why bother strengthening the resolve of Julia Gillard, her supporters both in and out of caucus and Labor voters nationwide? Would it not be the better strategy to let us graze on the delusional green pick on the side of the road and then clean us up…leaving confused bloody roadkill in your victorious path?

    Why do you need to get rid of Julia Gillard in such a vehemently, desperately, cruelly and, being true to form, cowardly way? What is it about Julia Gillard that has turned your virility to mush and your sperm to loosely whipped eggwhite.

    But believe me when I say I do thank you for your support. You really do strengthen resolve….and ,when on the podium in 2013, I hope Julia Gillard, Prime Minister of Australia, gives warm thanks to you….because we couldn’t have done it without you.

    Thank You

  16. [Unbelievable. The insane world of Australian MSM and those who work in them!]

    But they can sniff the ‘smell’.

    Only trouble is, they continue to remain upwind of the Fibs and are oblivious to their own scent.

  17. Tony Jones and Mr Reith are interrupting Mr Dreyfus continually. Usualy MSM crappola. Mr Jones is supposed to chair this, not head the inquisition.

    Mr Dreyfus asks whether he can get a word in here.

  18. BH @ 1868

    bemused – Bernie Fraser gets no ticks from me. His interest rate calculations through the Keating years was not good.

    Yes, I got hit hard by high interest rates too. But nonetheless, he served Hawke and Keating for a long time and was seen as sympathetic to Labor. So much so he later became the face of the Union Super advertisements.

  19. Is this the Tony Jones Show?

    He should be defenestrated.

    Got that one in before someone says it about Julia.

  20. BK

    As your physician, I have to strongly warn you not to watch QANDA.

    If you do, I don’t feel I can be responsible for your future health care needs.

    There are levels of reckless indifference to your own well-being which I cannot countenance.

  21. Let me tell you a little secret Mod Lib, do you know something that you can put your money on?

    The polls will turn in favour of Labor at around Aug/Sep when people receive their compensation package and they discover the carbon tax is miniscule compared to the GST.

    So where can you put your money? Abbott to be tapped – Dopey Joe in Nov/Dec 😉

    It’s my judgement v Yours.

    Me v You

    U got fucklies, you know that don’t you Mod Lib 😎

  22. [BK

    As your physician, I have to strongly warn you not to watch QANDA.

    If you do, I don’t feel I can be responsible for your future health care needs.

    There are levels of reckless indifference to your own well-being which I cannot countenance.]
    Sage advice, diog, sage advice!

Comments Page 38 of 44
1 37 38 39 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *