Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,189 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. Due to what I take to be a technical error, the dullest episode ever of Australian Story (and thus by extension the dullest thing in the whole history of television) has been screening on the ABC in Perth in place of The 7:30 Report.

    Good thing, or bad thing?

  6. LSL @ 1855

    If I could try to distill your argument into a few words.

    You are alleging that the political system in this country is merely a Labor-Liberal-Media complex where all parties play good cop-bad cop with each other.

    Furthermore you allege political partisans are focused on the good cop/bad cop charade and not the substantive “complex”.

    Am I right?

  12. joe

    We can count this as a teleconsultation. I strongly recommend all PBers follow the prescription. I predict a hypertensive crisis otherwise.

  13. Rummel @ 1907

    The $900 in cash was in 2008. Rudd was dumped in 2010. I don’t think you can draw the two together.

  17. I though Australian Story was quite interesting. Certainly better then 7.30. Maybe more interesting than QandA. A very important issue of revitalising land. So definitely a good thing.

  18. [We can count this as a teleconsultation. I strongly recommend all PBers follow the prescription. I predict a hypertensive crisis otherwise.]

    Diog, i know you are cheap, but this telemarketing is ridiculous

  19. [Reithy, the speaker can choose not to be in the Chamber, you dickhead.]

    True, but what about all the other duties of the Speaker, such as running the Department of the House of Representstives and all the official entertaining of foreign guests, and maintaining the joint operations of the parliament in conjunction with the President of the Senate. Has Slipper officially delegated all of these matters to Burke?

  20. Julia Gillard made a bad tactical decision today by taking ‘ownership’ of suspending Craig Thomson’s ALP membership and Slipper standing down as Speaker.

    It would have been a lot smarter to have let Thomson make the decision to go to the cross bench and let Slipper make the decision to stand aside.

    By taking ownership of the decisions she immediately opened herself up to the question as to why she had not acted earlier as we have seen.

    BTW, I don’t know where it says in ALP rules that a PM can suspend anyone’s party membership. The ALP has internal process for doing that after a fair hearing. Rudd also had this stupid habit of getting into decisions best left to party processes and where he had no proper authority.

  29. Just caught the end of a Prof Brian Cox documentary on the potential technological revolution (and plausibility) of fusion technology. TBH, our governments should be investing in this stuff. Not finding new substances to burn and new ways to burn them.

  34. my say

    BK is correct. There has never been a Mormon president and it is not likely that there will be one.

    So far in the primaries, he’s won the following states/territories:

    Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, U.S. Virgin Islands, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

    Utah, where you would expect he’d win has not held it’s primary yet, is not contested till June 26. It’s the last primary for some reason.

    According to the Washington Post, he has 847 delegates with only another 297 to reach the magic “home and hosed” 1144, thereby making him by far the front runner for the GOP nomination.

    I can’t see him beating Obama, however, and sincerely hope he doesn’t come within a mile of doing so, him being a Republican, after all.

    There have been six Mormon candidates for the US presidency:

    Joseph Smith – 1844 – who, of course, created the Mormon church;
    George Romney – 1968 – Mitt’s father;
    Morris Udall – 1976 – from Arizona;
    Bo Gritz – 1992 – ran as Populist Party candidate and only got 4% of votes in Utah and 1% in Idaho;
    Orrin Hatch – 2000 – senator from Utah; and
    Mitt Romney – 2008 and 2012 – former Massachusetts Governor.

  35. [I strongly recommend all PBers follow the prescription.
    I predict a hypertensive crisis otherwise.]

    Yes, Sophie, seems to have that special knack with the seniors. Experience, I guess.

  36. Diogs,

    Is it true that you can dispense/receive prescription medicines through the FTTH NBN?

    I hear the Japanese have been working on innovative technology to revolutionise Pizza deliveries.

  38. ltep

    I heard Dastyari today saying he didn’t think Thomson would go for pre-selection as he expected this to drag on too long.

  42. Itep @ 1931

    Bemused, Thomson wrote to Dastyari to ask for his membership to be suspended didnt he?

    Perhaps he did.So even less reason for JG to act all macho about ‘her’ decision. Just stupid tactics and I think she must get appalling advice.

  43. Scrutineer @ 1855

    If I could try to distill your argument into a few words.

    You are alleging that the political system in this country is merely a Labor-Liberal-Media complex where all parties play good cop-bad cop with each other.

    Furthermore you allege political partisans are focused on the good cop/bad cop charade and not the substantive “complex”.

    Am I right?

    I guess so. But I was more specifically referring to the fact that the Labor Party is part of the problem, not part of the solution. And the genius of the rigged system is that it herds up a lot of genuinely progressive people and funnels all of their political energy into the Labor Party, which is not a threat to the system at all (despite the media noise machine trying to make it sound like it is).

    People shouldn’t be fooled. If you want change in this country you need to give up on the Labor Party and recognise that they are not going to deliver it. People should advocate for real change, not get sucked in to the sort of stuff that passes for analysis and political advocacy here on Poll Bludger. All the micro-analysis of press conferences and journalists tweets.

    All you end up being is like a bad tempered obnoxious yob at the football yelling abuse at the referees and thinking that the result of a football game actually matters to anything.

  45. 4 corners re Mormon Cult and Romney
    _______________
    If you missed it tonight try to catch a repeat of a splendid program exposing the quite sinister nature of the Mormons ands their wealthy and all pervasive cult
    So they use ex-CIA FBI members to spy on “apostates” who have woken up to the cultish nnsens who’se surprised ??

    There are similarities to the power of Scientology…and older cults like 7h Day Adventists and Jehovah’s Witness…and of course the endless cults spawned in the USA like Christian “Science” and recently the Christianb Zionists,who believe Christ will return when Israel become Christian
    We should be grateful that the Mormorns while running Salt Lake City ,don’t have their own with Nucleur weapons like as another and older religion-bassed state does/ have.

    and speaking of cults the former head of the Israeli domestic spy service said yesterday that Netanyahu is dangerous because he has “a messianic desire ” for a wider conflxct in the Middle East..and should be stopped

    Thank Dog that the at least Scientologists dont have the Bomb,,,and what do we know about Mormon under-garments??

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