Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,189 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  2. ML:

    Steam ahead if you wish, hoping for things to be better once the ship passes x, y, or z island along the way- fine. We heard it all before: New Senate, Bills passing, New Year, Budget, July 1st etc etc etc. Things are only getting worse for the ALP not better as we steam ahead at full pace towards the inevitable iceberg….

    You’re talking to the wrong person. I’ve said before that I’m not holding out much hope for the next election. It’s all about the policies for me. That places me diametrically opposed to you. You don’t even like the guy you’re so keen to get into the Lodge. And you’ve got some fanciful notion that the party will have a change of heart once they get there and go all moderate on us. It’s a little Pollyanna for my liking. I don’t know what on earth you’re basing it on.

    From all I’ve seen from you so far – and please, correct me if I’m wrong – you only care about getting them there, and you haven’t a clue – or a care – what’s likely to happen when they do.

    I’ve only heard about three policy directions from them:

    1. Rescind Everything: Not only a fearsomely difficult thing to negotiate through parliament, but likely to be impossible if they’re entrenched before next election. And probably unpopular in the cases of Mining Tax and NBN anyway. Mostly trash talk and not to be taken seriously.

    2. Pay Off the Debt: I’ve only heard brainfarts when it comes to how they plan to do that. Once they were put to the sword on it (mid last year) and they admittted there’s very little fat to trim. They offered no suggestions.

    3. Go to Indonesia and Tell Them What To Do: A stupid idea.

    But look if you care about what the Coalition intend to do when they’re in power, then let’s hear all about it. I’m getting nothing from you but poll figures so far.

  3. That’s debatable bemused, I think Gillard would’ve been portrayed as weak and indecisive if she didn’t take ownership of the events, and really you’d have to be a bit silly not to imagine both events weren’t largely matters of her own making.

  8. I should add that, until Romney this time, none of them won the nomination (except of course Bo Gritz – where DO they get these names?) who was not standing as a GOP candidate.

  13. William Bowe
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 9:52 pm

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/29/galaxy-56-44-to-coalition/comment-page-39/#comment-1237508

    [Due to what I take to be a technical error, the dullest episode ever of Australian Story (and thus by extension the dullest thing in the whole history of television) has been screening on the ABC in Perth in place of The 7:30 Report.

    Good thing, or bad thing?]

    How do I break this to you gently? The error is all yours, William, in watching #TheirABC in the first place.

    I hope this helps.

  15. Ltep, what are you saying;

    are you suggesting the PM had prior knowledge that the Speaker was going to face sexual harrassment charges?

  16. [All you end up being is like a bad tempered obnoxious yob at the football yelling abuse at the referees and thinking that the result of a football game actually matters to anything.]

    We’d look like Abbott then, if we were particularly dishonest, and didn’t bother to do any real work other than making up three word lies. And you seem extraordinarily fond of Mr Abbott.

  18. [Is it true that you can dispense/receive prescription medicines through the FTTH NBN?

    Certainly can.]

    Dio,

    will you be giving group discounts to PBers as per the Crikey subscription deal?

  19. Diogenes @ 1938

    ltep

    I heard Dastyari today saying he didn’t think Thomson would go for pre-selection as he expected this to drag on too long.

    Thomson may find it far more remunerative to focus on his numerous defamation cases. 😉

  20. Whoops! Comment 1959
    Correction Morris!

    [Paul Bongiorno ‏ @PaulBongiorno
    #qanda is it true Ms Mirabella has a civil action against her?]

  23. Modified Rapture to Aguirre @ 1952:

    But but but, that’s the whole POINT of it, dear chap. WE should be in the Lodge oops Kirribilli, not them lot. Policies be buggered – WE were born to rool, not those scags. So hand over the keys AT ONCE like good little fellas, and maybe we won’t send you off the the Gulag … THIS time….

  25. Centre, no. What I mean is that Gillard would’ve asked Thomson to suspend his membership and Slipper to stay out of the chair for longer and that it’d be pointless for her not to take political ownership for these decisions.

  27. Romney’s religious beliefs will not be his biggest problem. His biggest problem is his tendency to put his foot in his mouth and his inability to articulate why he should be president. One would assume that, now it’s become him v Obama, Romney will restructure his campaign and get better strategists to help him with his problems.

  32. Sorry sophie,it is liberals like abbott abetz and morrison who are the rascists,and could throw in brandis with his fascism

  35. middle man, I can’t remember hearing/seeing an apology from AJ yet, and we all know what Blood Oaf’s verbal utterances are worth.

  38. Newman is a massive tool!

    On Romney. My favourite line of his was when he was at the NASCAR races, trying to fit in with the ‘everyman’… and he says “i love NASCAR, i know lots of the team owners.”

  41. This is the comment from Dastyari.

    [This morning, Mr Dastyari told ABC radio that the issue would likely rule him out of the next election.

    “I can’t imagine it being resolved any time soon. It seems like it’s going to drag on for a few more years,” he said.

    It is understood that Mr Thomson is philosophical about the likelihood he will not be contesting the next election as Labor’s candidate in Dobell.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/thomsons-preselection-in-doubt-20120430-1xty2.html#ixzz1tWdluZNE

  43. I should also add that the current US Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid (D-NV) is also a Mormon (yes I know it’s not a nationally elected office but it’s still an interesting tidbit)

  44. [Seems SMH is targeting the Unions and Gillard, just like they did when Kevin was Leader.]

    And yet people are of the view that Ruddstoration would make everything ok.

  47. Itep @ 1953

    That’s debatable bemused, I think Gillard would’ve been portrayed as weak and indecisive if she didn’t take ownership of the events, and really you’d have to be a bit silly not to imagine both events weren’t largely matters of her own making.

    She was better off having the party officers take care of the Thomson matter and much earlier. I watched her on TV and she was just trying to appear hairy chested. Not a good look for a female PM!

  48. i posted here the other day about how newspapers with a strong proprietor become weathervanes… certainly the case at Fairfax. swinging well to the right. dont want to contradict Murdochs opinion lest they lose readers.

  50. LSL @ 1943

    People shouldn’t be fooled. If you want change in this country you need to give up on the Labor Party and recognise that they are not going to deliver it. People should advocate for real change

    Ok, lets say at the next election voters flee Labor and the Coalition for other parties and we have a new group of parties in parliament. Would anything change?

    I would suggest they would not. The new parties would still have to try to get their message out through the media, still have to deal with the key stakeholders in society, business, media and labour and the new parties would have to fight amongst themselves for political supremacy.

    Also the new parties would have to worry about the next election……

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