Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,189 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [Oh dear… what must Mrs Rummel look like is Sophie looks good to you? The poor woman! :evil:]

    Which may explain all the thousands of dollars Rummy had to spend getting his first kid on the road.

    Danger money.

  2. How do they work out Kelly O’Dwyer is a rising star? Based on her ability to shriek like a banshee and talk over the top of everyone else??

    Get the feeling Newspoll will be a shocker – some of the lib shills from News are doing some preemptive gloating. Brace yourself folks.

  3. [time to give the new one his 10.30pm bottle… such a lovely lovely moment in my day…]

    middleman – that warms the cockles of me ole heart Cheers

  4. This country was founded on a constitution that made sure it religion and state was separate. Actually, that is a good idea, a different prayer each time and a statement for atheist day.

  5. [Which may explain all the thousands of dollars Rummy had to spend getting his first kid on the road.

    Danger money.]

    BB

    lol 🙂

  6. rummel @ 2030

    Bemused

    I like her inner policy beauty.

    Ahh, you only redeeming feature comes to the fore again. 😆

    No intention to offend Mrs Rummel.

  7. On QandA tonight –

    1. Mirabella throws in the old “we’re a Judeo-Christian society” to conclude, when everyone else on the panel embraced the multicultural discussion. The when Nguyen spoke about the anniversary of the Fall of Saigon, and gets a huge applause, Mirabella sits there and doesn’t even bother with a clap. If you can watch the video, check it out. She then half pretends a hand clap at the end. A true disgrace, demonstrates the deeper feeling of most of the party.

    2. People like Dreyfuss and Butler are the best communicators Labor has, but rarely seen.

  8. [Get the feeling Newspoll will be a shocker ]

    True, but:

    The Govt still gets to deliver the Budget next week.

    Interest rates are likely to fall tomorrow.

    We all get to wait for :monkey: to finally deliver a Budget Reply speech. 🙂

  9. Good QandA. I particulartly liked how the manufacturing guy was not scared by the scare campaign. The target audience of the Coalition. It is small business they have been trying to scare into passing on costs.

  10. [Abbott will give nothing like a budget in reply speech.]

    True, he’ll probably do a hospital pass to JoHo after screaming Boats, Boats, Boats!

  11. guytaur – agree.

    Mirabella heard “small business owner” and said “carbon tax bad” about 14 times. He was then asked about whether the carbon tax would impact on his business, and he said not really.

    MirabellaFail.

  12. How do they work out Kelly O’Dwyer is a rising star? Based on her ability to shriek like a banshee and talk over the top of everyone else??

    That was my assumption. I moved recently and just got around to updating my electoral details. I’m in her electorate now. Joy.

  13. NewsPoll paid for by NewsLtd subsiduary of #NewsCorpse controlled by Murdoch whose leadership has led to a culture of bribing officials, hacking phones of widows, seeking to blackmail politicians….. to further his commercial interests.

    After todays ramping of 92% of #newscorpse’s tabloids online pollsters wanting a election now, I couldn’t give a rats arse about the tainted MurdochPoll

  14. [I suggest you get a sense of humour.]

    Great. So it’s now a source of amusement to the misogynists to apply different standards of leadership to women than to men?

    Thank you for clearing that up. It speaks volumes for your motivations.

  15. gloryconsequence @ 2062

    2. People like Dreyfuss and Butler are the best communicators Labor has, but rarely seen.

    Tragically, that is all too true.

    Why?

  16. [Saw that coming. Barrister Peter Slipper to take defamation action against T Abbott @Skynews #auspol]

    Abbott should step down immediately for the good of the parliament.

  17. That Mirabella Fail. I note Reith was too smart to parrot the lines. I think it is the first real sign we have seen that the carbon price even if called a tax is not the poison chalice the media and Oppn have been painting it. The judgement of progressive. Labor Green Independent has again been proved right.
    Abbott could really be going down.

  18. Dee@2065

    Saw that coming. Barrister Peter Slipper to take defamation action against T Abbott @Skynews #auspol

    Hope that has substance

  19. [Abbott should step down immediately for the good of the parliament.]

    I imagine there’ll be no pressure though. You know, presumption of innocence and all that. 😉

  20. Saw that coming. Barrister Peter Slipper to take defamation action against T Abbott @Skynews #auspol

    Lucky Abbott believes in the presumption of innocence then. Lucky for him also it’s not under the Fair Work act, or he may have had to pronounce himself guilty.

  21. [Good QandA. I particulartly liked how the manufacturing guy was not scared by the scare campaign. The target audience of the Coalition. It is small business they have been trying to scare into passing on costs.]

    The best type of small business man, guytaur. He is accepting his responsibility to cover the fixed price costs and doesn’t intend to lose any workers. That must have hurt Mirrabella but don’t expect this bloke to be asked to appear on any other program anywhere. He was too sensible about it and not negative enough about the Govt.

    At least Jones halted Mirrabella in her tracks for 10 seconds with saying the carbon tax hadn’t started yet. Unfortunately Mirrabella is like Abbott – wind them up and they can’t stop.

  22. [That Mirabella Fail. I note Reith was too smart to parrot the lines. I think it is the first real sign we have seen that the carbon price even if called a tax is not the poison chalice the media and Oppn have been painting it. The judgement of progressive. Labor Green Independent has again been proved right.
    Abbott could really be going down.]

    Well, that’s rubbish. Abbott isn’t going anywhere, and the carbon price is absolutely toxic in the community, regardless of what the actual outcome is, which will be negligible.

  23. [Abbott should step down immediately for the good of the parliament.]

    Be careful what you wish for! 🙂

    Things are bad enough for the ALP already, don’t wish an absolute wipe out on them (which is what would happen with a non-Abbott leading the Liberal Party).

  24. Schnappi @ 2090

    Actually, without bias ,do believe slipper is ten times smarter than abbott.

    With heaps of bias… I think you set the bar very low… 👿

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