Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.

With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).

Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,724 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. davidwh

    If you for one minute think that Ashby meeting up with Pyne, Brough, Bishop and others is no big deal, you are sadly mistaken

  2. I see Vexnews have done some digging into Ashby’s financial situation as well, with regard to whether he can afford the legal fees.

  3. davidwh – I suspect its State level Lib vs Nat rivalry in the QLD LNP combined party. Correct me if wrong, but all the MP names thrown around as possible people Ashby may have contacted are Liberal Party people, not anyone from National party.

    Joyce may see where this is going and is disgusted at them (the Libs) fouling up unnecessarily, and also distancing the Nats.

  4. Wow!!!

    That Vex is a touch of dynamite. Bet the libs are sorry they touched it.

    Mr Ashby I think may be spending some time at Her majesty’s pleasure

  5. Vic, tell Davidwh that:

    [Timeline; Pyne met Ashby 19/3 then Ashby met Brough 3 times late March/Early April Lewis broke the story on 21April. Nice sequence #auspol]

  6. The finns

    It would appear that our resident coalition supporters do not see anything wrong with the Ashby matter at all

  10. So if Ashby’s character can readily be brought into dispute, what part of his claims are strongly verified by a third party? Any?

  12. [So if Ashby’s character can readily be brought into dispute, what part of his claims are strongly verified by a third party? Any?]

    Barnyard called it “dodgy” and that is enough for me.

  13. [So if Ashby’s character can readily be brought into dispute, what part of his claims are strongly verified by a third party? Any?]

    None, it seems. The only time a third person is present is when Ashby asserts Slipper wanted to kiss you both. Ashby and Slipper’s press sec were both present, although Ashby says they were alone.

  14. [My understanding is that Vex have held over their report until later this week. Their story was to focus a lot on Ashby’s personal history.]

    I must confess, this is one of the elements I have found baffling.

    We have a man making serious accusations against an MP who holds one of the highest offices in the land. Already some of his accusations appear not to hold up under scrutiny and now his motivations are being called into question.

    Normally, the media would do an online search and dredge up the person’s Facebook and Twitter accounts, but in this case they have been deleted. Why has this not, in and of itself, been an issue?

    Also, given what we DO know about his history – being aggressive with journos up to and including very public personal abuse and damaging property – if that is representative of the sort of person he is, why isn’t there anyone coming forward to volunteer their opinions of him?

    He works in POLITICS; surely he has enemies everywhere who are willing to tell a few home truths to any journo willing to publish. And, let’s face it, he’s made a least a couple of enemies amongst the journalistic fraternity.

    So why have we seen NOTHING? Not a skerrick. Not ONE person, anywhere, we are led to believe, who has a bad word to say about him.

    I suspect people ARE talking to journos, but they just aren’t publishing.

    I suspect also Vex is sitting on a whole lot of very interesting scuttlebut that might see the light of day very soon.

  17. [So we have seriously entered the twilight zone for political morality.]

    dont give me that kind of shits please. After what they have done to crucify PM Gillard’s character. Remember the latest: She should be kicked to death.

  19. Its actually Penny Wong who is the second respondent on behalf of the commonwealth. She must be busy.

  20. Aguirre – why not sent a message to NewsRadio telling them exactly that – you learnt nothing of fact from their bulletins so what are they doing towards earning taxpayers’ money.

    I might, BH. It’ll probably be more along the lines of “I used to listen to you regularly, just thought you’d like to know why I stopped…”

    I can tell when the news is being skewed one way or the other. Really, anyone can. What I most want from the national, taxpayer-funded broadcaster is news without the editorialising, and without ‘commentary’ from the interested parties. If Hockey has something to announce, then by all means report that. But if all he’s doing is running commentary on other events, that’s not news. I don’t know what it is.

    I’m a bit over commentators of all stripes, to be honest. ‘Experts’, ‘economists’, political junkie reporters. This constant message that people don’t just need to know what’s happening, they need to know what to think about it as well. It’s insidious.

    On here, at least I know which way everyone leans, so I can adjust my interpretation of what they’re saying (and ignore the ones who get repetitious – I won’t necessarily ignore those I disagree with, just the ones from either side who blab the same stuff).

    But with news services, especially government funded ones, you have an expectation that they’re impartial. Every bit of ‘commentary’ undermines that.

  21. [I suspect people ARE talking to journos, but they just aren’t publishing.

    I suspect also Vex is sitting on a whole lot of very interesting scuttlebut that might see the light of day very soon.]

    Danny, Gussie promised MOAR and there will be MOAR

  23. [So we have seriously entered the twilight zone for political morality.]

    No, Tony Abbott has dragged politics into the gutter, it is working for him at the moment. It worked for Nixon for a while as well.

  24. The interesting thing is that Ashby is alleging the Commonwealth knew about a pattern or harrassment from 2003 but in reality to 2003 Commonwealth is not really the 2012 Commonwealth.

    Very odd case.

    So Tony Nutt will have to take the stand, maybe even other Minister’s from 2003. This is so messy.

    Its going to create precedents.

  26. [Its actually Penny Wong who is the second respondent on behalf of the commonwealth. She must be busy.]

    No Slipper is the Second Respondent. The Respondent is The Commonwealth.

  27. bluegreen@65

    So we have seriously entered the twilight zone for political morality

    Yes if you mean the liberals.

  28. Who in the Commonwealth would have been responsible at the time for?

    [The Commonwealth thereafter failed to take reasonable and effective steps to prevent
    the Second Respondent from utilising his office to foster sexual relationships with young
    male staff members.]

    Nick Minchin was finance Minister from 01-07.

    Will he need to take the stand?

  34. Morality BG?

    The type of morality where the Liberal party relentlessly called for people to stand down or to resign not because they had been convicted of anything but because they have been accused?

    The type of morality which allows those same people to then call for the law to be allowed to take its course once the same issue starts to rebound on them?

    The type of morality that sees two men pursue a woman in her workplace abusing her like schoolboys then claim months later that people who report sexual harassment should be respected?

  35. [Its actually Penny Wong who is the second respondent on behalf of the commonwealth. She must be busy.]

    Another Labor’s Industrial (Union) Law (Solicitor & Barrister) with an interesting career. Another tough lady!

    [So Tony Nutt will have to take the stand, maybe even other Minister’s from 2003. This is so messy.]

    And Howard? He’s being accused of ensuring the 2003 complaint went nowhere & it was all hushed up.

    Now that I would like to see!

  36. [No Slipper is the Second Respondent. The Respondent is The Commonwealth]

    Yes you are quite right, but the Commonwealth is being involved via the Finance Minister.

  38. I keep thinking that Peter Slipper is either a complete idiot to have employed Ashby; or there is something more to it.

  39. So, looks like Vex are on the warpath??

    Having read their latest on the Ashby thing it reminds me of something out of Disk-World. Attributed to Mustrum Ridcully , Arch-Chancellor of the Unseen University.

    [Sue the University!! Please Do! We have a pond full of people who tried to sue the University!]

    All very grubby in classic Vex style. I would imagine that :monkey: went into a few minutes of Shuddering Brainlock on being informed of this latest. 🙂

  40. Vic

    From the Ashby Court papers

    [The First Respondent is the Commonwealth of Australia via the Minister for Finance andDeregulation. The Minister for Finance and Deregulation is the Minister administering the Members of Parliament (Staff) Act 1984, and pursuant to Schedule 6.3 of the
    Fair WorkRegulationsand Regulation 6.09 of those Regulations, is the relevant EmployingAuthority of persons employed under Part III of the Members of Parliament (Staff) ]

  41. [How long is it going to take before Ashby drops the case?]

    Unless he’s really gone to ground, there is probably a great deal of pressure of him to drop it before 2.00pm tomorrow.

    If you are one of the Opposition legal eagles, wouldn’t you be very stirked about how much Slipper & Labor know about Ashby’s past, his police record, his friends etc?

  42. [Yes you are quite right, but the Commonwealth is being involved via the Finance Minister.
    ]

    The Finance Minister normally responds if there is any risk of damages etc causing a liability for the Commonwealth.

  44. [Yes you are quite right, but the Commonwealth is being involved via the Finance Minister.]

    No Ashby is employed by the Dept of Finance as are all Politicians Staff. If you expect the Minister to appear I guess you wait for The Queen or Gov General to appear in cases involving The Crown. 😛

  45. victoria

    bg

    Why via the finance minister

    Maybe because of abbotts sleaze,there is a need for an ethics minister,

  46. Given this polling was taken Wednesday night to Sunday that 2 pt drop to 29% in Labor primary rather supports my contention that the senior ministers have made very bad error of judgement in encouraging the trashing of the character of complainant in a sexual harassment case – an issue that has long been a signature Labor value.
    The period poll was taken coincides with the Govt seizing on the conspiracy theory.

    Govt would be well advised to back off and let the Speaker’s defence team do the trashing.

  47. “How long is it going to take before Ashby drops the case?”

    About 10 seconds after he reads that Penny Wong might be handling it for the Commonwealth i’d think. 🙂

    I love Penny Wong and seriously wish she was hetero. However, i would not like to be on the wrong side of her in a serious argument.

  48. [Unless he’s really gone to ground, there is probably a great deal of pressure of him to drop it before 2.00pm tomorrow.

    If you are one of the Opposition legal eagles, wouldn’t you be very stirked about how much Slipper & Labor know about Ashby’s past, his police record, his friends etc?]

    And this all sounds terrible if you consider that the allegations may be true. It’s not good if people cannot come clean with allegations of sexual harassment without having their pasts trawled through and various smears ran against them.

  50. [victoria
    Posted Monday, May 7, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink
    mari

    The Oz is trying to deflect from the opposition.
    victoria
    Posted Monday, May 7, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink
    mari

    Fairfax have access to the sources. The Oz are doing harm minimisation]

    Sorry computer lost all favourites?? just reinstalled them
    I really think The Oz is trying to protect Abbott from any potential rivals from Qld, why I don’t know, why go Brough when Pyne is equally to blame, possibly Abbott promised Murdoch something I don’t know but all very strange

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