Blair has covered a highly variable area around Ipswich since its creation in 1998, having been substantially redrawn at three redistributions since. Originally covering areas inland of Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast, the redistributions of 2004 and 2007 saw it progressively take over central Ipswich from Oxley. Prior to the 2010 election it lost 28,000 voters in territory south of Ipswich to the new seat of Wright, in exchange for 13,200 voters in rural areas around Lake Wivenhoe to the north (previously in Dickson and Fisher) and 5500 in the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Collingwood Park and Springfield Central (from Oxley). As the areas lost were rural and conservative, Labor’s margin was boosted from 4.5% to 7.0%. The seat further recorded what by Queensland standards was a mild swing of 2.7%, the resulting Labor margin of 4.2% making it their fourth safest seat in the state.
Ipswich had been an area of strength for Labor since the early days of the party’s history owing to its now defunct coal mining industry, but it has more recently been prone to rebellion against the party’s efforts to appeal to new middle-class constituencies. The most famous such occasion occurred when Pauline Hanson won Oxley in 1996, scoring 48.6% of the primary vote as an independent after the Liberals disendorsed her for advocating the abolition of government assistance for Aborigines. The creation of Blair in the next redistribution did Hanson a poor turn, dividing her home turf between two electorates. Rather than recontest Oxley or (more sensibly) run for the Senate, Hanson chanced her arm at the new seat, but the major parties’ decision to direct preferences to each other may have sealed her doom. Hanson led the primary vote count with 36.0% against 25.3% for Labor and 21.7% for Liberal, but Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson pulled ahead of Labor on minor party preferences and defeated Hanson by 3.3% on Labor preferences.
Thompson went on to absorb most of the disappearing One Nation vote in 2001, more than doubling his primary vote without improving his two-party margin over Labor. A redistribution ahead of the 2004 election clipped this by 1.8%, but he went on to handsomely consolidate his position with a 4.5% swing. In 2007 the Liberals targeted Blair as part of its “firewall” strategy, a key element of which was a risky decision to fund a $2.3 billion Ipswich Motorway bypass at Goodna in the neighbouring electorate of Ryan. This proved of little use, with Labor picking up a decisive swing of 10.2% which typified the shift of blue-collar voters back to Labor on the back of WorkChoices.
Labor’s winning candidate was Shayne Neumann, a family lawyer and partner in the Brisbane firm Neumann & Turnour and member of the state party’s Labor Unity/Old Guard faction. His LNP opponent at the coming election will be Teresa Harding, who is “director of the F-111 Disposal and Aerial Targets Office” at the RAAF Base Amberley.
BK
George is a very cheeky boy!!
Carey
Basically there is so much stuff in the Bible and so much that is contradictory that you can make it say anything you want.
cud chewer
Appreciate your thoughtful post
lizzie
Sorry about that .Forgot to include a health warning. On the other hand it is quite funny watching Liberals continuing their futile efforts to convince people Tones = SNAG.
Syria has a population similar to Australia – 22,000,000 plus
Syria has a land mass less than Victora and greater than Tasmanina.
There are now 150,000 refugees in three bordering countries.
87% of the Syrian population is Muslim (in some shape or form).
If the Syrians fleeing Syria are, percentage-wise, a snapshot of Syria, then are these refugees asylum seekers? Or economic refugees????
Don’t forget, Muslims are free to travel to another Muslim country.
That country is Indonesia.
So, what’s 87% of 150,000 = another helluva lot of refugees landing in Indonesia.
I’m sorry, guytaur,
I told you a few months ago you were on a hiding to nothing regarding refugees.
This is just another face of it you are going to have to consider.
[1 Rudd cannot get the numbers to take on Gillard]
True.
[2 Therefore Rudd’s supporters in caucus now have to get behind Gillard, even if they don’t like it]
No, because Rudd is driven by megalomania not logic.
[3 The narrative from the Government will become more positive….Gillard is a proud Labor fighter, a true-believer, a good person who is becoming a great Labor PM….the Government has a genuinely good record of achievement and ….Abbott and the Liberals are untrustworthy and incompetent liars who have tried to trick their way into office]
True.
[4 Labor have a fight on their hands, but should not be written off at the next election.]
No-one can be written off a year before an election, but the chances of Labor getting back to a winning position are not very good.
[5 The Liberals have no policies other a few cliches and an unworthy, cringe-worthy populism]
True.
[6 The media do not really care much about the actual content of Government – only whether they can use politics to drum up stories and drive sales. Since the media cannot tear Gillard to pieces – no matter how much they try – they will tear Abbott to pieces instead. This will be entertaining, because he is such an easy target: he is angry, bungle-prone, thin-skinned, erratic and vain.]
Seriously wrong. The Murdoch press most definitely cares about the content of government. Murdoch wants Labor out, partly on general principles and partly because the NBN is a threat to his business. The ABC and Fairfax trail along behind Murdoch.
vic
Thanks.
I reckon we’re right, and the blokes are wrong, as usual
(this is regarding Katie Noonan, lest you blokes get your knackers in a knot).
kezza
See cud chewers good post. One that like yours does not seek to denigrate others opinions.
I have continually said I have an open mind on AS. All I have said is that no one should be fooled as to reality.
That reality is the Greens have a policy thal Labor finds bad politically for it.
That problem is a Labor not Green problem. Greens policy is crystal clear no matter how muh abuse is hurled.
So is Abbott’s so called policy.
Labor to get change has to either get Abbott to say yes or to go to onshore processing.
I am sure the Prime Minister has asolution in mind.
It will be interesting to see how things develop. Remember this is an expert committee that has not been listening to Howard appointed “experts”.
Removing it as a political issue, stopping people drowning and supporting refugees with education and training. If this means 100,000 refugees settle each year fair enough.
I wish this was true, it is not. Senator Hanson-Young’s submission to the Houston review proves it.
Psephos
Another reason Murdoch wants this government gone i hat it is serious about sensible regulation of the media to ensure democratic free speech is not swamped to suit the vested interests of a few.
[Regarding Asylum seeker policy, has anyone here actually sat down and worked it out what the end game should or could be? ]
Australia takes a large quota of refugees direct from refugee camps. No-one who comes to Australia by boat gets a visa. The term “asylum seeker” is abolished.
guytaur
I doubt Murdoch is concerned about media regulation. His foxtel pay tv will be rendered obsolete, once the NBN is in full swing.
Guytaur, yes that’s true too, although the hacking scandal has weakened Morgoth’s hand in that regard.
Have to say that The Conversation web site is a continuing source of excellent articles, relevant information and stimulating thought.
Much better than the Global Mail, which seems to be trying too hard too look sexy, without quite succeeding.
The Conversation has a much simpler layout, thus loads faster. It’s not as self-conscious as The Global Mail. It reads better and the articles are punchier, more waffle-free. More content-orientated than media-orientated.
ru
This just suggests you are not clear on the difference between submissions to committees and policies. The submission will be along policy lines, but it is not policy.
Murdoch also has cause to hate the NBN.
I’m late to this blog post, but to those of you with an interest in how the media works (especially shock jock style media of the Sydney variety), this is well worth reading.
http://mariekehardy.com/blog/post/circle-of-life/
[Circle of Life.
Posted by Marieke
Friday 03 August 2012
So as of today, Channel Ten will no longer be broadcasting The Circle.
And that is a pity, I think. The Circle was an engaging, warm, funny show hosted by intelligent, challenging, politically astute women. At the time of its ignominious death by axing it wasn’t necessarily setting the ratings world aflame, but it was never going to – not with its gentle mid-morning timeslot and cheerily awkward infomercials. It was what it was: a daytime television show with a passionate and devoted audience, and without warning it was yanked from air and replaced with overseas content.
Why?
The fault lies, more or less, with this gentleman.]
Psephos,
That dinner/lunch JG had with Rupert wouldn’t have been a ditch the NBN and we’ll go easy discussion with a polite thanks but no thanks from JG?
If I were you I’d be a little less condescending about that Guytaur …
[Guytaur, yes that’s true too, although the hacking scandal has weakened Morgoth’s hand in that regard.]
The Day Of Reckoning is coming for Murdoch sometime soon.
He’s in his 80’s and – no offence against octogenarians – he could slip off the perch any day now.
His company in the UK is in free-fall. The local branch is about to be put through the wringer with Ashby. They’ve already lost Australia TV and BSkyB. The gnomes of New York can’t be pleased that the newspaper division they cut off from the main company is still causing harm.
The tide is turning. Pity it’s taken 37 years since he nobbled Whitlam, but better late than never.
@sydney_greens: @GreensNSW run biggest council election campaigns ever http://t.co/4ygAuWB8 #cos12 #Greens4Sydney
[The Conversation has a much simpler layout, thus loads faster. It’s not as self-conscious as The Global Mail. It reads better and the articles are punchier, more waffle-free. More content-orientated than media-orientated.]
The Global Mail is crap. They ran a piece on an area of policy which was my responsibility in my former job, which was garbage from beginning to end, even though I patiently explained the facts to their writer several times. For all their pretension, they’re just tabloid smear-merchants. I gather they are failing, and the sooner the better.
BB
You know Murdoch’s mum is 103 years old!!
I said the policy is not clear, it is not clear, the submission of the 8 dot points makes it even more unclear. Can you tell me what the Greens policy on irregular immigration is?
Psephos,
I agree on Global Mail. It is dressed up to be 60 minutes (of former glory) but delivers like the Daily Terror.
[That dinner/lunch JG had with Rupert wouldn’t have been a ditch the NBN and we’ll go easy discussion with a polite thanks but no thanks from JG?]
The NBN is the single most popular big-ticket thing this government has done, so it’s not very likely that the PM would be willing to weaken it to try to appease Morgoth, who wouldn’t any case keep such a promise, being the evil old reptile he is.
victoria,
Statistically, women live longer than men. 👿
Yes, when it comes to billions and billions, Tony Abbott is very caring & feminine –
It was Frank Packer who nobbled Whitlam, Murdoch was just learning to be a media baron at the time.
mauler
You hink Senators routinely going around contradicting their own policy in submissions to committees do you?
Especially on such a politically charged topic?
[Seriously wrong. The Murdoch press most definitely cares about the content of government. Murdoch wants Labor out, partly on general principles and partly because the NBN is a threat to his business. The ABC and Fairfax trail along behind Murdoch.]
But is the NBN a threat to News Ltd.? Maybe not. Maybe it will provide a new delivery platform that is vastly cheaper than running presses and distributing acres and acres of newsprint. If I had the ability to produce content that people really wanted to access, and could find a cheaper way to reach an audience, I would want to use it. Murdoch was raised on ink, but is not opposed to saving money. It’s the best hope for his otherwise obsolete news business.
We know that Murdoch hates Labor. But he loves money more. He needs to try to revive revenue in news-based businesses that are dying much, much faster than they were ever created. His editorial policy is built on sensation. If there is no news, they create it themselves – always pursuing a sense of commotion…of the “breaking event”. Abbott is losing his curiosity value. He is, frankly, very boring, very predictable. Abbott is no longer even newsworthy at all other than when he is saying idiotic things that even Liberals reject.
While Rudd is ego-driven, in the last analysis, his supporters want to hold on to power. Since they cannot have Rudd, their one chance is to start to fight hard for Gillard. They probably lack enthusiasm, but they have no choice. It is Gillard or bust. They have to reconcile themselves to this, if only because the numbers say they cannot win any other way.
So….Rudd is off the agenda……Gillard is going to fight on……the Liberals are worse than useless, but are positively dangerous…..and Abbott is a whacko who can be turned into sales revenue while they destroy him.
Game on!!
Psehpos
.
Sorry, poss, I reckon you were kicked out of the ALP because of your right wing ratbaggery, rather than resigning, because JG didn’t like your recommendations.
And she got rid of you.
Good on her.
I laugh, like the Frenchman in ‘ Monty Python & the Holy Grail’ , at The Green’s asylum seeker ‘ policy’ of Regional Processing, because I think to myself, while x number of asylum seekers are going through the assessment process at The Green’s beloved Regional Processing Centres, y number of asylum seekers will be lining up outside the doors of the People Smugglers with the money in their pockets to Pay-As-You-Go on one of their boats, just like they ever did.
And a few of them will die. And Sarah will cry. And nothing will have changed for the better.
I too agree regarding the Global Mail. I was expecting a kind of New Yorker type publication.
Psephos,
[… who wouldn’t any case keep such a promise, being the evil old reptile he is}
Now tell us what you really think of Murdoch.
briefly
NBN is a threat to Foxtel. Already many programs are downloaded off the net. The main game for Rupert is what happens to live sport when the NBN is available to all and sundry?
[You know Murdoch’s mum is 103 years old!!]
But his Dad was only 67 when he shuffled off.
SK
True. Women do usually outlive men!
Psephos
[The Global Mail is crap. They ran a piece on an area of policy which was my responsibility in my former job, which was garbage from beginning to end, even though I patiently explained the facts to their writer several times. For all their pretension, they’re just tabloid smear-merchants. I gather they are failing, and the sooner the better.
The Global Mail doesn’t have an agenda.
Unlike you.
Your comments on here have been so far right, I am so glad you no longer have any influence.
You are scary. Cop that, young harry.
I was singing the nursery rhyme song, ‘The Grand Old Duke of York’ to one of my grandsons when I thought, hey… I remembered that there was Napoleonic wars battlefield marker a k or so from my father’s house in Tuitjenhorn.
A bit of googling later and:
The historical antecedants are not very clear, but there was a Duke of York who led a British/Russo invasion force during the Napoleonic Wars in the province of Holland against the Batavian (dutch) republicans and the french.
Eventually the Duke and his men were driven out by way of a sort of honourable draw but not before they had burned down houses in my parent’s villages. I have heard my father talk about the burned houses and also that his grandfather knew men from the district who had fought in the Napoleonic wars.
History does have long tentacles.
I shall enjoy singing the song to my grandson even more now.
Oh yes how about a visa on arrival, lets send them all to Adam Bandt’s place.
I wouldn’t say the Global Mail is crap, but it’s taken its direction from the MSM, only it tries to be better and fairer (good on it for that, not complaining).
It’s over-produced to the max, though, top the extent that the format tends to distract from the content.
You could never accuse The Conversation of doing that.
The Conversation also draws from a MUCH larger input base… basically all the academics of the nation, while The Global Mail seems to have the same writers doing columns, bottle washing and flipping the snags.
In the end, I find The Conversation much easier to navigate and much more diverse to read.
Psephos
Before you do write your own book (oooh, how did I know that?) on your inside info – examine your conscience, if you have the guts.
That should do it.
@perpetua: 10 Phrases Used in The New Yorker for the First Time Ever by @lenadunham http://t.co/qTeLPGyf
Briefly,
Like most legacy organisations they carry a shedload of investment in high ticket old technology that is rendered priceless, as in he can’t sell it because there is cheaper, more nimble technology available.
Kezza2
Are you the psychic Kerry Kulkens?!!
[Psehpos
Sorry, poss, I reckon you were kicked out of the ALP because of your right wing ratbaggery, rather than resigning, because JG didn’t like your recommendations.
And she got rid of you.
Good on her.]
I am card-carrying member of the ALP. I resigned my job in Canberra for various reasons which are none of your business. My job did not entail making recommendations to the PM, who I doubt has ever heard of me.
BB
You always castigate Michelle Grattan (old coke bottles), but your little tentative okay to the global mail is sick-making too, considering the Global Mail is much more truthful than anything we get from the msm..
Why didn’t you just say, I luv ya Psheph, and I’ll give you a positive eulogy regardless.
You guys are pathetic, quite frankly.
Are you ever going to get over the fact that JG is phenomenal.
kezza2 – why are you so aggro tonight?