Blair has covered a highly variable area around Ipswich since its creation in 1998, having been substantially redrawn at three redistributions since. Originally covering areas inland of Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast, the redistributions of 2004 and 2007 saw it progressively take over central Ipswich from Oxley. Prior to the 2010 election it lost 28,000 voters in territory south of Ipswich to the new seat of Wright, in exchange for 13,200 voters in rural areas around Lake Wivenhoe to the north (previously in Dickson and Fisher) and 5500 in the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Collingwood Park and Springfield Central (from Oxley). As the areas lost were rural and conservative, Labor’s margin was boosted from 4.5% to 7.0%. The seat further recorded what by Queensland standards was a mild swing of 2.7%, the resulting Labor margin of 4.2% making it their fourth safest seat in the state.
Ipswich had been an area of strength for Labor since the early days of the party’s history owing to its now defunct coal mining industry, but it has more recently been prone to rebellion against the party’s efforts to appeal to new middle-class constituencies. The most famous such occasion occurred when Pauline Hanson won Oxley in 1996, scoring 48.6% of the primary vote as an independent after the Liberals disendorsed her for advocating the abolition of government assistance for Aborigines. The creation of Blair in the next redistribution did Hanson a poor turn, dividing her home turf between two electorates. Rather than recontest Oxley or (more sensibly) run for the Senate, Hanson chanced her arm at the new seat, but the major parties’ decision to direct preferences to each other may have sealed her doom. Hanson led the primary vote count with 36.0% against 25.3% for Labor and 21.7% for Liberal, but Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson pulled ahead of Labor on minor party preferences and defeated Hanson by 3.3% on Labor preferences.
Thompson went on to absorb most of the disappearing One Nation vote in 2001, more than doubling his primary vote without improving his two-party margin over Labor. A redistribution ahead of the 2004 election clipped this by 1.8%, but he went on to handsomely consolidate his position with a 4.5% swing. In 2007 the Liberals targeted Blair as part of its “firewall” strategy, a key element of which was a risky decision to fund a $2.3 billion Ipswich Motorway bypass at Goodna in the neighbouring electorate of Ryan. This proved of little use, with Labor picking up a decisive swing of 10.2% which typified the shift of blue-collar voters back to Labor on the back of WorkChoices.
Labor’s winning candidate was Shayne Neumann, a family lawyer and partner in the Brisbane firm Neumann & Turnour and member of the state party’s Labor Unity/Old Guard faction. His LNP opponent at the coming election will be Teresa Harding, who is “director of the F-111 Disposal and Aerial Targets Office” at the RAAF Base Amberley.
vic and briefly
I haven’t really seen why Murdoch would hate the NBN so much. The newspaper angle doesn’t matter as it’s only a tiny % of their business.
What would happen with sports coverage when the NBN comes in? Someone would still pay royalties to broadcast it. The medium might be different but it would still be big business.
Reading about J.Bishop, seems history repeating it self.
As she has been deputy leader to 3 leaders,appears once again showing loyalty to the leader,as she did with the other 2.
Sort of indicates her article on abbotts femine side, is saying hey guys ,look Im always loyal, so no worries about me still being deputy , after abbott.
Pshephos
[I am card-carrying member of the ALP. I resigned my job in Canberra for various reasons which are none of your business. My job did not entail making recommendations to the PM, who I doubt has ever heard of me.]
Thank Christ for that.
If she’d had you on her team, considering your past advice, she’d be long gone.
‘
And with friends like you, who’d need enemies?
Get the point/s?
kezza
[Why didn’t you just say, I luv ya Psheph, and I’ll give you a positive eulogy regardless.]
I think you’ll find there is not a lot of love lost between BB and Psephos.
If BB did say “I luv ya Pseph”, it would be a touching moment for us all.
[487
victoria
Posted Saturday, August 11, 2012 at 7:40 pm | Permalink
briefly
NBN is a threat to Foxtel. Already many programs are downloaded off the net. The main game for Rupert is what happens to live sport when the NBN is available to all and sundry?]
I guess the question is whether “downloading” on/via the NBN will be treated the same way as “broadcasting” or “publishing” with respect to copyright. Who will own transmission rights in relation to NBN traffic? Will some kind of gate-keeping toll on sport and news be payable? To whom? By whom? How would tolls be collected? By the NBN itself? How will piracy be thwarted?
For some reason, the image of Br’er Abbott wearing a mankini flitted through my mind a moment ago.
Had to share with y’all – a trouble shared is a trouble doubled 😉
[Get the point/s?]
I get the point that you’re a loud-mouthed idiot troll who abuses people from the safety of anonymity.
[496
Space Kidette
Posted Saturday, August 11, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink
Briefly,
Like most legacy organisations they carry a shedload of investment in high ticket old technology that is rendered priceless, as in he can’t sell it because there is cheaper, more nimble technology available.]
News has just written off most of the value of their Australian print assets.
Briefly
Precisely the point. Initially foxtel, AFL, NRL etc may sue for breach of copyright. What are they going to do in future, sue everyone who can access it via the NBN?
Evening all.
Further to my meeting Mattias Corman and Dean Smith a couple of weeks ago, and their promise (threat?) to deliver Bronnie to this electorate because of her supposed sterling work with seniors, my boss texted me today to inform that “senior Liberals” have this electorate on their radar and are looking for media opportunities including community meet and greets for the next 12 mths.
I texted back that so long as he isn’t sick again, I”m happy with whatever they propose. 😀
AOC@AUSOlympicTeam
Men’s 50km walk: 25km-Deakes has gone to the front in 1:49:21, Tallent also in lead group (8th – 1:49:23) Adams just behind (9th – 1:49:27)
[506
fiona
For some reason, the image of Br’er Abbott wearing a mankini flitted through my mind a moment ago.
Had to share with y’all – a trouble shared is a trouble doubled ;)]
Yes….a troubling thought indeed: a reptile in lycra.
How are you, fiona? Better I hope.
[I haven’t really seen why Murdoch would hate the NBN so much. The newspaper angle doesn’t matter as it’s only a tiny % of their business. ]
NBN permits a Foxtel experience on your TV without having to pay for it.
briefly
At present, live games can be Video streamed a few minutes behind the live broadcast via Telstra etc., who have the rights to do so.
[Leroy
Posted Saturday, August 11, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink
kezza2 – why are you so aggro tonight?]
Leroy, leroy, leroy,
Heyl I’m not aggro,
I’m just sticking up for JG.
If you want to get in the road of that, then look out, I’m gunna take you down a peg or two too
A bit like the way I established my “Jiss on Julia” offensive, if you get my drift.
JG is dynamite. She’s the best PM we’ve ever had.
And I’ll go in to bat for her every time.
She’s winning big time.
We don’t need some wannabe behind-the-scene player bringing her down.
briefly,
That is just a tip of a very large iceberg of investments about to be rendered useless.
Psephos
[I get the point that you’re a loud-mouthed idiot troll who abuses people from the safety of anonymity.]
Ha ha
Says you from anonymity
What a joke.
[509
victoria
Briefly
Precisely the point. Initially foxtel, AFL, NRL etc may sue for breach of copyright. What are they going to do in future, sue everyone who can access it via the NBN?]
Well, I suppose the question is whether they can sue the NBN? If so, will the NBN be able to run exclusive subscription or pay-per-view channels? If not, why not? It’s their network? Is it technically possible?
(I am a tech-toddler…no tinkering skills whatsoever)
fess
[NBN permits a Foxtel experience on your TV without having to pay for it.]
For eg consider the AFL.
Who is going to broadcast it for free?
Why would the AFL let it be broadcast if it can be pirated off and viewed for free?
What will happen to the AFL if it loses hundereds of millions a year in TV rights?
I think psephos is one pber whose name and occupation is known to virtually every other pber
Think about this. With the NBN it will be possible to download/stream the latest Hollywood block buster on the day of its premiere directly to your tv. At a cheper ost than going to the cinema.
[Why didn’t you just say, I luv ya Psheph, and I’ll give you a positive eulogy regardless.]
Geez Kezza, you must be on the sauce again. Second night in a row!
Anyone here will tell you that I am one of Pseph’s greatest non-admirers, going back years.
Furthermore, I don’t see how you can turn an unsolicited (i.e. not in response to any other commenter) mini-critique by me favourably comparing The Conversation to the Global Mail – GIVING ARGUED REASONS, I might add – is some kind of fascist, truth-hating, bloke-thing.
If you hadn’t noticed, The Conversation is not part of the MSM either. I wonder if you aren’t confusing it with something else? It’s an on-line journal financed by universities and other educational institutions around Australia, with content provided by academics who are required to declare their interests and affiliations up front.
I was comparing two non-MSM on-line publications, one of which I find easy to read and informative on a variety of subjects, and the other which I find uncomfortable to navigate, before I even get to the actual columns.
Lady you are seriously sick, with a huge log on your shoulder for reasons I cannot understand. The targets of your bile seem to be random. Maybe that’s democracy in action, but you’d be better off seeking help than spewing your crap here. It’s off-putting and un-called for.
The NBN is a threat to Foxtel because bundling of subscriptions to Foxtel will come under pressure as will subscriptions in general.
Why pay for stuff you never watch when paying separately per channel for the stuff you want, at a nominal monthly rate will become available if not within Australia then from elsewhere. A lot more will be available free on the internet as well.
No wonder why the government will not object to murdoch buying packers share in foxtel – it won’t be worth much in 5 – 8 years time.
Dio:
See victoria @ 514. You can already semi livestream matches.
What happens to the AFL from hereon in is up to them. But technology is superceding them just as it is Rupe’s Foxtel broadcast.
Diog
[I think you’ll find there is not a lot of love lost between BB and Psephos.
If BB did say “I luv ya Pseph”, it would be a touching moment for us al]
That’s great, diogs.
But, in reality, BB couldn’t give a stuff whether I’m on his team of not.
I’m rooting for JG.
So I do it myself.
And, I’ll take down whomever I like in the process.
kezza2 – and who exactly is attacking JG at the moment? No one I can see.
[516
Space Kidette
briefly,
That is just a tip of a very large iceberg of investments about to be rendered useless.]
Well, Murdoch may like to own broadcast channels on cable and NBN….the point for him is to have wide reach, enabling him to spread his production costs over the greatest number of sales units….increasing his returns to scale. His capital costs are just a part of the equation. He needs scale and the ability to control his unit prices above all else. I don’t know anything about whether and how a technical monopoly – such as applies with cable – can be duplicated in a broadband environment.
kezza
Psephos was one of the factional staffers who helped install Gillard as leader so he’s probably not a great target to “take down”
Well i wish. The. N n was here now. So we could. Watch the.walkers, our son use to walk with
Deaks. Oh is a walk judge
And would love to wstchi g the walks. All the time
[That is just a tip of a very large iceberg of investments about to be rendered useless.]
I have an old mate who’s pretty high up in the Foxtel technical department. He does serious stuff with their data and transmission capabilities.
You’d normally think such a (literally) switched on guy would be right on to the NBN, praising it to the skies.
Yet,in every conversation we have he’s dead against it. Reckons Foxtel’s not under any threat at all. All you have to do is buy their set top box, their recorder, and sign up for a subscription to their service and you can see and just about do whatever you want to.
When I told him, “Yeah, maybe, but I loathe Rupert Murdoch,” he looked at me quizically and said, “Why?”
True story.
I’m going to make a nice cup of tea. (english breakfast)
Tea anyone?.
(it’s bullsh!t, but I thought it might help)
Dio – I always thought of you as a green ?
Cannot see see you voting Tory and you don’t seem keen on Labor either.
Do you vote informal ?
BB
You know what is seriously sick?
You not accepting a woman who disagrees with you.
Both of us have told fellow posters about our lives.
We’ve both asked for advice.
Or we’ve both just let it all out there.
To let fellow posters know what;s going on.
Suddenly,that’s okay for you, but
Suddenly you make out that it wrong for me to do the same thing.
If you screw up with what you have to say, it’s allright.
If I screw up, I’m accused of all sort of things, from over imbibing to having a psychiatric moment.
So, piss off BB
Piss of Psephos.
You are both tarred with the same brush as far as I’m concerned.
Dio
I am sure it will hurt SeweRoo and Foxtel/Austar etc by way of Major sports like AFL, Rugby League, Rugby Union etc will ditch his sponsorships for the rights to live coverage and peeps will be able to NBN straight to the live stream owned by that sport and buy/watch a game of their choice.
Much like Major League Baseball in the US as an example
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/subscriptions/index.jsp?&c_id=mlb&affiliateId=mlbMENU
grey
[I’m going to make a nice cup of tea. (english breakfast)]
Would have thought a cup of Earl Grey
[Leroy
Posted Saturday, August 11, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink
kezza2 – and who exactly is attacking JG at the moment? No one I can see.]
Leroy,
I didn’t say anyone was attacking JG,
I said, I was rooting for JG.
I am determined to keep putting positives out there about JG.
Cool?
briefly @ 512,
Thank you for asking – unfortunately no. Still seedy, poorly, insert adverb of choice.
Just now I think TS Eliot had it wrong: August is the cruellest month. It has been a long, damp, cold winter in Melbourne and I think that I’m suffering from a nasty case of the SADs.
Eh bien, time to play some Bach, I think.
dave
Last time I voted for the Secular Party of Australia.
I voted Liberal once (I have been friends with the local Lib member for 32 years) but I couldn’t do it a second time.
AOC@AUSOlympicTeam
Men’s 50km walk: Si of China has broken away with 15km to go. Deakes on the chase – 8 seconds behind. Tallent 21 secs behind leader.
[Suddenly,that’s okay for you, but
Suddenly you make out that it wrong for me to do the same thing.]
You are a seriously screwed up person. I haven’t got a clue what you’re on about, and I don’t think anyone else here has, either. Take a chill pill for your own good.
Dio – Fair enough.
Never heard or noticed them before.
Gaffy
So the AFL would organise its own broadcast and we’d pay per game over the NBN?
Did it work for the MLB?
dave
[Never heard or noticed them before.]
Neither had 99.91% of the population (literally). They only got 0.09% of the vote.
I fully expect the AFL to become its own ISP. Then all profits of sales will ome from sales of access to the game. Ditto for other organisations and events.
Hamis Hill
No, I am not good at getting out of bed early on Sunday mornings.
The point about the internet, broadband, and streaming content is not about the content suppliers or consumers.
It’s the pipes in between those two.
The AFL or whoever is the content “creator”/”owner” will be able to charge for the content – per view or subscription etc. The internet is not going to make it “free” (ignoring piracy).
The threat between the old media/entertainment model and the emerging one is to the guys who used to deliver the content – the cable companies, the F2A channels, DVD stores (already almost extinct).
Murdoch/Foxtel/everyone in the business can see the writing on the wall, but understanding what is coming has never stopped the big investors from trying to (King Canute style) hold back the structural change being enforced upon them by technological change.
If they can hold it off for 5 years, through lobbying regulators or nobbling the new competition, then it’s pushed beyond the horizon for all their investment benchmarks – and their bonuses – and the gravy train, for them, carries on that little bit longer.
kezza2
You are really too much to endure. Why don’t you seek some assistance? Why do you have this enormous chip on your shoulder? Your personal abuse is tiring. Grow up!!
Dio
[Did it work for the MLB?]
That was a link to their website i put for you to check out, where you sign up for their direct broadcasts, so i guess it works for them and it is still working for them.
On a lighter note…
[So this chap is at the Olympic village and he sees this bloke carrying a 15 foot fibre-glass pole walking by.
“Excuse me, are you a pole vaulter?” asks the chap.
“Yes, but how did you know my name was Walter?” says the athlete.]
South Korea effectively has a NBN (although it’s private and public).
What has happened to Foxtel etc over there?