Seat of the week: Blair

Blair has covered a highly variable area around Ipswich since its creation in 1998, having been substantially redrawn at three redistributions since. Originally covering areas inland of Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast, the redistributions of 2004 and 2007 saw it progressively take over central Ipswich from Oxley. Prior to the 2010 election it lost 28,000 voters in territory south of Ipswich to the new seat of Wright, in exchange for 13,200 voters in rural areas around Lake Wivenhoe to the north (previously in Dickson and Fisher) and 5500 in the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Collingwood Park and Springfield Central (from Oxley). As the areas lost were rural and conservative, Labor’s margin was boosted from 4.5% to 7.0%. The seat further recorded what by Queensland standards was a mild swing of 2.7%, the resulting Labor margin of 4.2% making it their fourth safest seat in the state.

Ipswich had been an area of strength for Labor since the early days of the party’s history owing to its now defunct coal mining industry, but it has more recently been prone to rebellion against the party’s efforts to appeal to new middle-class constituencies. The most famous such occasion occurred when Pauline Hanson won Oxley in 1996, scoring 48.6% of the primary vote as an independent after the Liberals disendorsed her for advocating the abolition of government assistance for Aborigines. The creation of Blair in the next redistribution did Hanson a poor turn, dividing her home turf between two electorates. Rather than recontest Oxley or (more sensibly) run for the Senate, Hanson chanced her arm at the new seat, but the major parties’ decision to direct preferences to each other may have sealed her doom. Hanson led the primary vote count with 36.0% against 25.3% for Labor and 21.7% for Liberal, but Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson pulled ahead of Labor on minor party preferences and defeated Hanson by 3.3% on Labor preferences.

Thompson went on to absorb most of the disappearing One Nation vote in 2001, more than doubling his primary vote without improving his two-party margin over Labor. A redistribution ahead of the 2004 election clipped this by 1.8%, but he went on to handsomely consolidate his position with a 4.5% swing. In 2007 the Liberals targeted Blair as part of its “firewall” strategy, a key element of which was a risky decision to fund a $2.3 billion Ipswich Motorway bypass at Goodna in the neighbouring electorate of Ryan. This proved of little use, with Labor picking up a decisive swing of 10.2% which typified the shift of blue-collar voters back to Labor on the back of WorkChoices.

Labor’s winning candidate was Shayne Neumann, a family lawyer and partner in the Brisbane firm Neumann & Turnour and member of the state party’s Labor Unity/Old Guard faction. His LNP opponent at the coming election will be Teresa Harding, who is “director of the F-111 Disposal and Aerial Targets Office” at the RAAF Base Amberley.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,255 comments on “Seat of the week: Blair”

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  5. Diogs,

    I’ll bet you Zac and the RATM boys aren’t Paul Ryan fans.

    (but then they wouldn’t be Obama fans either – they’re right off the US mainstream political map)

  7. gg

    He was the best person for the job when he was appointed through a natonallly advertised and transparent process.

    I will take your word for it, as I wouldn’t know.

  12. [ Do Labor supporters here care what happens to those we send to Malaysia if it goes ahead??? ]

    Do I care that they lose the thousands of $US, paid over in their country of origin, to obviate the laws of a sovereign country half a planet away?…….no, I do not.

  15. lizzie @ 61

    bemused
    With reference to Psephos’ statements on Howard/Lib policy, it contains:

    Liberal climate denialism comes directly from the US, and is in sharp contrast with Cameron’s science-based response.

    We have all commented on the tactics and attitudes of the Coalition being so similar to the Repubs on may subjects. On the AGW denial, we have evidence for this via Cory Bernardi, who went over to USA and returned with all their strategies in hand to create the Menzies House, web, which is a vehicle for anyone who want to contribute to a coalition of climate denial and general bastardry, a la Tea Party.

    Yes, I know that, but I was not aware of a formal switch in international affiliations.

    I see that as quite significant and worth publicising. It needs to be hammered home to conservative voters that the Libs have actually switched away from being affiliated with sensible conservatism to a radical right wing organisation. That will give many pause for thought.

  18. [You don’t think Palin will be around?]

    Nope. They’ll go with a conservative, and they’ll go with the one who already established rapport with many of the GOP voters in 2012, Rick Santorum.

    RS fits the criteria of being a hard conservative but one who doesn’t upset the party establishment. As long as he doesn’t do anything self-destructive in the next four years, assuming Romney doesn’t win of course, Santorum will probably be the nominee in 2016.

  19. [As much as Green flame wars are tedious and boring, I’d much prefer them to Ruddstoration hysteria.]

    Fess, i know. But i really enjoy seeing them pavvy doggys in pain 👿

  22. @mfullilove: RT @fivethirtyeight: I think Ryan pick (if true) indicates bearish view from Romney campaign. Not a pick you make if you think you’re ahead.

  24. The Greens Party will be put in a very interesting dilemma this week in regards to the panel’s recommendations on asylum seeker policy

  25. CM:

    I regard Santorum as just a vacuous as Palin! I remember last year he had a series of major stumbles around pretty simple issues, really.

  26. Btw is Obama going to stick with Biden?

    Without a doubt.

    Why? Because Biden makes whomever he is running with look good by comparison?

  28. http://delimiter.com.au/2012/08/10/roxon-has-paused-data-retention-plans-says-smh/

    [Blog, Internet – Written by Renai LeMay on Friday, August 10, 2012 16:10
    Roxon has paused data retention plans, says SMH

    It’s not often you hear words of common sense emanating from Federal Attorneys-General with relation to technological issues — normally they’re far more interested in holding secret Internet piracy meetings without consumer representation, developing plans to monitor all Australian communications, avoiding pesky Freedom of Information requests; you know, the usual humdrum day to day stuff.

    But according to the Sydney Morning Herald, the current AG Nicola Roxon may have come to see the light on the unpopularity of her department’s current wide-reaching surveillance package currently before the Federal Parliament’s Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security. The newspaper reports (we recommend you click here for the full article): ]
    worth a read, both the blog post & original article

  29. grey

    Why, hello sadness. I used to be a Port supporter but I was too new and couldn’t hold the position. Now I’m a nothing supporter.

  30. Finns:

    Enjoy the peace while it lasts. I’m predicting Rudd and his coterie will ramp up the destabilising next week as the Olympics concludes, parliament resumes and a Newspoll weekend approaches.

  32. [Why? Because Biden makes whomever he is running with look good by comparison?]

    Because he’s the incumbent Vice President and it’s not a good look for an incumbent President to drop their VP at re-election, as it demonstrates a lack of confidence in the President’s team and decisions. Only if Biden had done something really terrible should Obama consider dropping him.

  35. bemused
    [It needs to be hammered home to conservative voters that the Libs have actually switched away from being affiliated with sensible conservatism to a radical right wing organisation. That will give many pause for thought.]
    I don’t think they’ve got a clear picture of what they’re supporting. It requires a bit of research and info such as we get via PB and I doubt that Coal voters care too much. They just hate Labor, Unions, Gillard, whatevah!

  39. @ckanal: In case anyone had doubts RT @ethanklapper AP CONFIRMS: WASHINGTON (AP) – Republican official: Romney chooses Paul Ryan for running mate.

  40. Victoria
    I didn’t sense the usual degree of anti- “governmentalism” in PVO’s article. Over the past 4 or 5 days there have been quite a few articles by the usual JG antagonists in the MSM.

    Personally, I think a number of them are sniffing the breeze and contemplating their options. Only the maddest (Pies, Bolt, Albrechtsen, Devine, Sava, Lewis, Kenny, Sheridan et al) will continue to forcefully promote Abbott.

    The rest are thinking they might have backed the wrong horse and are stepping back a bit. What journo really wants to be seen in retrospect to have backed the loser?

  41. And Santorum, even from a different party, looks nothing like his fellow religionist Jack Kennedy.
    Saw his candidacy as an ugly case of Right Wing RC entitlement mixed with resentment against a Mormon Presidency. WE WERE HERE FIRST!

  43. GG, they need 240 volts through the lot of them.
    Get rid of the prima donnas and get the ilk of Josh Carr and Francou back.
    Pretty, never won anything.

  44. Because he’s the incumbent Vice President and it’s not a good look for an incumbent President to drop their VP at re-election, as it demonstrates a lack of confidence in the President’s team and decisions.

    I think this is another of those political rules-of-thumb that shouldn’t have as much weight placed on it as it may do.

    It would factor larger if the president was running heavily on their first term record. I’m not so sure that applies to Obama.

    Additionally, not to even hint at starting up the Hillary wars again, but Hillary has already said she’s out of the State Department; I could see a political argument that bringing Hillary in as VP could be a way of motivating the Dem base if Obama’s fortunes have flagged to the extent that he is not able to to the extent required…

    It would also make the Repugs absolutely rabid, and given that that whole “consensus” thing died in the arse in the first term might be an entertaining political move.

    From an outsider’s point of view, when Joe Biden is an automatic punch line for the Jon Stewarts and Stephen Colberts of the world, then you know there is a problem.

  45. As is the fashion these days, I could not resist correcting this statement …

    “womble
    Posted Saturday, August 11, 2012 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    Will be interesting to see what Houston comes up with – the Greens won’t, and shouldn’t, back off-shore processing.

    By adding …
    No matter how many lives it takes.

  47. JG
    You confirm my suspicions, it wouldn’t have been a Howie era appointment by any chance, He made such good ones. The cup of gratitude overflows.

  49. grey,

    Carr is a bit old these days and Francou’s in jail (I believe).

    Maybe bring back Choco from his successful stint at GWS.

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