Blair has covered a highly variable area around Ipswich since its creation in 1998, having been substantially redrawn at three redistributions since. Originally covering areas inland of Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast, the redistributions of 2004 and 2007 saw it progressively take over central Ipswich from Oxley. Prior to the 2010 election it lost 28,000 voters in territory south of Ipswich to the new seat of Wright, in exchange for 13,200 voters in rural areas around Lake Wivenhoe to the north (previously in Dickson and Fisher) and 5500 in the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Collingwood Park and Springfield Central (from Oxley). As the areas lost were rural and conservative, Labor’s margin was boosted from 4.5% to 7.0%. The seat further recorded what by Queensland standards was a mild swing of 2.7%, the resulting Labor margin of 4.2% making it their fourth safest seat in the state.
Ipswich had been an area of strength for Labor since the early days of the party’s history owing to its now defunct coal mining industry, but it has more recently been prone to rebellion against the party’s efforts to appeal to new middle-class constituencies. The most famous such occasion occurred when Pauline Hanson won Oxley in 1996, scoring 48.6% of the primary vote as an independent after the Liberals disendorsed her for advocating the abolition of government assistance for Aborigines. The creation of Blair in the next redistribution did Hanson a poor turn, dividing her home turf between two electorates. Rather than recontest Oxley or (more sensibly) run for the Senate, Hanson chanced her arm at the new seat, but the major parties’ decision to direct preferences to each other may have sealed her doom. Hanson led the primary vote count with 36.0% against 25.3% for Labor and 21.7% for Liberal, but Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson pulled ahead of Labor on minor party preferences and defeated Hanson by 3.3% on Labor preferences.
Thompson went on to absorb most of the disappearing One Nation vote in 2001, more than doubling his primary vote without improving his two-party margin over Labor. A redistribution ahead of the 2004 election clipped this by 1.8%, but he went on to handsomely consolidate his position with a 4.5% swing. In 2007 the Liberals targeted Blair as part of its “firewall” strategy, a key element of which was a risky decision to fund a $2.3 billion Ipswich Motorway bypass at Goodna in the neighbouring electorate of Ryan. This proved of little use, with Labor picking up a decisive swing of 10.2% which typified the shift of blue-collar voters back to Labor on the back of WorkChoices.
Labor’s winning candidate was Shayne Neumann, a family lawyer and partner in the Brisbane firm Neumann & Turnour and member of the state party’s Labor Unity/Old Guard faction. His LNP opponent at the coming election will be Teresa Harding, who is “director of the F-111 Disposal and Aerial Targets Office” at the RAAF Base Amberley.
FF
Francou’s not in jail. That’s Fabian Francis.
Here’s the last time Ryan appeared in public. He was at a memorial for the Sikh victims. This also looks like a good sign. I’m warming to him.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew/status/234134017727938561/photo/1
@243 Lizzie,
Yes, they might be.
@249
GG, Francou coaches North Adelaide.
@AlexGreenwich: #MARRIAGEEQAULITY RALLIES SEND MESSAGE “STATES TO LEAD IF FEDS FAIL” / SA GOV’T BACKS #MARRIAGEEQUALITY http://t.co/ckHJiWfo
Diogs,
Thanks.
Those old PA players all look the same to me.
Diogenes
[Paul Ryan is a Rage Against The Machine fan ]
As he’s a Repugnant it is probably only because their song “Killing in the Name” is a fave in Guantanamo and Bagram. Played continuously at high volume it is used for psychological torture, oops as an ” enhanced interrogation technique” 🙁
I disagree.
I don’t think we’ll be hearing too much from the Ruddistas.
The monkey
is on the ropes with electricity prices and blaming the carbon tax. We have the NBN and soon the Houston Report.
Rudd and his few supporters should provide Julia with CLEAR running and ZIP…
@kevingchristy: Paul Ryan was born in Kenya.
That would mean he can’t be President.
Actually, according to his wikipedia page, Paul Ryan was born in Wisconsin.
For what it’s worth, I think Gillard did a superb job this week. The real question however is what happens this week.
As I wrote earlier, the Greens Party have a major dilemma on their hands
Re US VP choice
__________
Murdoch clearly would like Ryan….he is for savage cuts in Social Security and medicare for the elderly..all of which fits Murdoch’s hard-right agenda.
In recent tweets Murdoch said the Brits have too many holidays and he is against “welfare: as he calls all social security programs of any kinds…and he likes the idea of tax cuts…for the rich
Ryan’s a right-wing catholic too and his social agenda would also suit Murdoch’s neanderthal views
views
The born in Kenya tweet was humour. By an American.
🙂
Centre
[Rudd and his few supporters should provide Julia with CLEAR running and ZIP… ]
I love your optimism but suspect the very reasons you cite as being advantageous for the PM atm will also encourage some destabilisation.
It seems that whenever it looks like Rabbott is on the ropes the manchurian candidate and his entourage engage in strategic leaks.
psyclaw
I may have read PVO with my biased glasses on!
Spur 202…Dilemmas
____________
Speaking of Dilemmas..the ALP has a bigger one…the voters still hate Giilard’s guts
deblonay,
I suspect it’s only old misogynists like you that would agree with that.
@guytaur
Ah, I see. Geez, jokes go over my head on the internet sometimes.
Dee
As I have said countless times, Labor’s biggest obstacle is Within its own ranks. JG has managed it so far. Let’s see what she comes up with in the next few weeks
Dunno why the Republicans would put up a candidate who doesn’t know where he was born.
deblonay
I agree with you on that point although that shouldn’t overcloud the fact that the PM had a good week
I’m not one for “tests”, but if ever there was a “test” for Julia Gillard it will be the coming week and the Houston report.
I think the ALP has some clear momentum and positive energy at the moment, but not getting a good outcome while casting the spotlight back onto asylum seekers could easily stop that positivity dead in its tracks.
Julia Gillard set up the Houston review, so here’s crossed fingers that there’s a good plan to tie it all together into a (seemingly improbable) win.
Jackol
Agreed
260
spur212
Posted Saturday, August 11, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink
[For what it’s worth, I think Gillard did a superb job this week.]
There is hope for you spur212
spur12,
Kindly point to the survey that includes the question “Do you hate Julia Gillard guts”.
My guess is Julia has asked Houston to rule out Malaysia in the short term, rule in Nauru and PNG rule in TPVs and rule out tow backs
Funny! Some in the Coalition might consider this to be a bit of a low blow to Tony
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/julie-bishop-spruiks-feminine-and-caring-tony-abbott-20120811-240yk.html
South Australia joining Marriage push really does put pressure on the Feds. Most particularly one Mr Abbott.
I hope there a few dixers on the subject of freedom and concsience votes. Then we will see the Coalition squirm. They split on this issue.
People seem to have missed the terms of reference of the Houston review.
It will be a political document to bash Abbott and Scoot around the ears with. No boat towing back etc.
It will solve nothing in the long term.
Melb Museum and the ancient Iraq Exhibition
____________________
If you’re able to get to see it…the curent exhibition at the Melb Museum is splendid
It deals with the ancient civilizations in the land we know know as Iraq
The material from major European collections is splendidly presented as was the Tutankhamam material last year
It also includes the history of the 19th and early 29th century men and women who did so much to seek and to find the lost treasures of the ancient world
One of these Sir Max Mallowan,was the 2nd husband of Agatha Christie…who worked alongside her husband on many experditions and from whose travels came several,of her whodunits..like “Death on the Nile” and “Murder in Mesopotamia”
Speaking of lost treasures I bought there a new US book called”The Rape of Iraq” which looks at the way the great Museum of Baghdad was looted by well oprganised gangs in the first days of the US invasion in 2003
Oddly.Saddam Hussein was quite liberal with funds for the museum,but the US-UK vandals made NO plans for the protection of the great museum in the chaos which followed the US invasion
The frantic staff did wonders to save some of the material …in one case hiding much material in a flooded basement
But over 28.000 items were looted…some by US personal..many being sold on ther world markets to wealthy collectors
The Museum is now closed in view of the chaos that still prevals in Iraq almost a decade after Bush brought “US democracy” to that shattered land
It says much that in The White House among Bush and the Neo-cons there was no thought to such problems…only the Oil Ministery building was secured !!!
‘Blair ,Howard the rest of Bush accomplices in these crimes have never been brought too book either
North of Baghdad ,at Babylon the US Army used the restored ruins of the ancient capital as a base to store materials and as a tank-park…thereby destroying many ancient roads and structures…and making no effort to stop robber groups actually excavating other sites and untouched mounds from ancient times
No wonder that Iraqis compare the US and it’s allies with Genghis Khan and the Mongols in the 13th century who destroyed old Bagdad and killed vast numbers of it’s citizens
spur212 @ 270
I agree with you too.
But objectivity is not valued on this site.
[For what it’s worth, I think Gillard did a superb job this week. The real question however is what happens this week.]
Oh really!
Why is the real question what happens this week?
Just acknowledge that Julia has had a good week and your bloke the monkey
has had a shocker.
Voters are starting to discover what many here, and most in his party, already know.
Abbott is not fit to be PM!
Victoria
Don’t mind me!
I’ve become very jaded with the routine antics of some within the ALP.
The PM has not asked the three panel members to rule anything in or out.
You just have to look at the quality of the three persons involved to know that they would not still be part of the process in the PM had asked them for anything.
The greenw will have to take a hard look at themselves this week.
They may wish and wish all they like but the panel will support Malaysia as part of its recommended option or options.
Dee, the Party is starting to gain traction on some big issues.
If Ear Wax even fantasizes about having a leak, he will lose more of the very supporters he has left.
I’m calling it!
Rudd is GONE 😎
Guytaur post 90 Offshore processing IS NOT a more practical approach. Regional processing is.
————————————————————————————————
For regional processing to occur, it needs to happen within the region and when I last checked Australia was an island therefore for us to support a regional processing center then it has to be off-shore or here and that would be classed as on-shore.
The Greens need to remember who the real winner of their current policy is, yes the smugglers that don’t care for these people but are happy to fleece them for a nice profit.
The Liberals on the other hand are just being stubborn and pig-headed when they know that the Government policy will at least change the nature of this debate both in this parliament and in the next one.
RU –
Perhaps so. From a political perspective, of course, if all that is achieved is a neutralization of the Coalition’s lines up to the next election then I think that could be considered a “win” for Julia Gillard.
I would take that over another momentum-killing political stalemate; presumably in practice it would mean status quo for the next year and a bit.
I’m a little skeptical that it is possible to dodge-and-weave on this one without some action from the government while keeping the public on-side. A legislative win might defuse the issue for now, although that looks largely impossible at the moment of course, or alternatively (I guess as womble is suggesting) a covered take up of the Coalition’s position to be able to deflect their attacks …
If the ALP win the next election then it is obviously still a festering issue for them, but at this point anything phrased as “after an election win” is not really top of anyone’s mind.
Deblonay at 265
WRONG!
Do you know how much repect and admiration Julia will win from the people for her strength and courage to withstand all the negativity thrown at her?
HEAPS!
There is only 1 women on the nose… Christine Milne.
The Greens – Peak Pewny R.I.P.
Yes any marriage contract is for the protection of the children of that marriage.
Since gay couples have children then the deserve the same protections enjoyed by the children of all marriages.
And once that is out of the way the protection of the child victims of pervert priests might
become the new “cause celebre”.
A private member’s bill bringing in The Capital Punishment that Jesus advocated wouid get the support of Abbott and his front bench surely. Protecting children as in supporting the children with gay parents?
Mexi
The problem for Labor is NOT what Green AS is. It is getting Abbott to say yes. Nothing to do with Greens. Time you all realised that simple relity. Those outside Labor know it.
Yet here is yet more time wasted attacking the Greens giving Abbott the excuse o continue to say no.
JG’s an absolute champion.
She’s had everything, including the kitchen sink, thrown at her.
And, still she comes out getting the job done, and smiling to boot.
It will be Australia’s loss to vote out such a supremely capable prime minister.
GG re Gillard
_______
You’ve gone very quiet on your wild predictions of earlier in the year that Gillard’s stocks would rocket up after the “MAGIC Date of July One”..when the voters would be dancing in the streets over their handouts
….but it hasn’t happened has it,,,and the current arguments over power prices show how little the Govts stock have improved
Your predictions have fallen flat on their arse to put it politely. Try your hand at horoscopes perhaps
…so we hear little about your predicitons now… so .what the next date …Xmas ?
As for misogny…I merely stated the all too obvious facts of history that woman leaders generally Don’t WIN elections in this country ,,,
facts are stubbon things !!
just ask Kirner/Lawrence /Kennelly and others …and I suspect that a male leader would poll better among the many male chauvinist voters in rural Australia today …can anyone prove otherwise ?
Ah. I see now. Hill is a certified signed up member of the Te Party. Even using self same arguments they do to argue agaist equalty.
Well Mr Hill suffer because you are indeed on the wrong side of history as our society does all it can to ensure true freeom and equality. From the mining tax to SSM.
No Guytaur
Like I have already strongly suggested, the Greens had a somewhat minor victory politically by rejecting the CPRS. They better quit while they’re ahead.
If the Houston Report recommends the Malaysian Solution – oh your mob are going to accept it, believe me. 😯
guytaur’
I think that the Greens would like to see regional processing in say Malaysia and or Indonesia funded by Australia and with oversight of the UNHCR. That is to say we only accept refugees who have been through the regional processes. Correct?
Kezza, just how strong is Julia?
WOW!
[289
guytaur
The problem for Labor is NOT what Green AS is. It is getting Abbott to say yes. Nothing to do with Greens. Time you all realised that simple relity. Those outside Labor know it.
Yet here is yet more time wasted attacking the Greens giving Abbott the excuse o continue to say no.]
The G’s can jabber on as much as they like, but foot-stomping and fist-shaking won’t make Green guilt evaporate. Their squawking over-reaction merely confirms they seek to evade responsibility for their errors of judgment.
Guytaur
The Greens wanted the review, whereas Rabbott scoffed at it which discounts Rabbott and the Coalition from the equation.
If the Greens disagree with the outcome, how do you think they will look in the eyes of the public?
guytaur – So the Greens don’t have the balance of power in the Senate.
Then why is anyone listening to them if they are so unimportant.
Either the Greens want to be serious policy makers or show ponies
makers = markers
deb
[As for misogny…I merely stated the all too obvious facts of history that woman leaders generally Don’t WIN elections in this country ,,,
facts are stubbon things !!]
But JG did win, on votes and in negotiation.
And she’s proved her mettle – against everything the Oppo (hand in hand with the msm) could and have thrown at her.
Don’t worry, deb, the electorate will turn in JG’s favour – at the election.