Newspoll: 50-50; Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

James J reports a somewhat interesting result from Newspoll, with the two parties locked together at 50-50, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (up three on a fortnight ago), 41% for the Coalition (down five) and 12% for the Greens (up four from an anomalous and over-hyped result last time). The Labor two-party and Coalition primary and two-party figures were all last seen at this level in the poll of 18-20 February 2011, while Labor was last at 36% on the primary vote in the poll of 18-20 March 2011. Julia Gillard has shot to a resounding 46-32 lead as preferred prime minister, up from 39-38, and she is also up five on approval to 36% and down five on disapproval to 52%. This 10-point improvement in her net rating follows a 7% improvement in the previous poll. Tony Abbott meanwhile is down one on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 60%.

UPDATE: Troy Bramston on Twitter reports Nielsen has the Coalition leading 53-47 (down from 54-46 last month), from primary votes of 34% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is in the unfamiliar position of having a personal approval rating with a four in front of it, although this is partly to do with the unusually low uncommitted results Nielsen gets on its personal ratings. Her approval is at 42%, up three, and her disapproval is at 53%, down four. Tony Abbott meanwhile is down three to 36% and up two to 59%, which is five points worse than what was previously his weakest net rating from Nielsen. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 46-45 to 47-44.

UPDATE 2: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. In brief:

• The poll finds 44% saying they would vote Labor against 41% for the Coalition if Kevin Rudd was leader, for a two-party lead to Labor of 53-47, though I personally take these sorts of questions with a grain of salt.

• Kevin Rudd continues to lead Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader, but his lead is down from 60-31 to 55-37. Gillard leads 52-47 among Labor supporters.

• Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand has a commanding 63-30 lead over Tony Abbott, including a 53-45 lead among Coalition supporters.

• On the state breakdowns, Labor’s two-party vote is at 47% in New South Wales (up two), 49% in Victoria (down one), 42% in Queensland (up one), 44% in Western Australia (down two) and 54% in South Australia/Northern Territory (up seven), remembering the sample sizes on the smaller states in particular are extremely small.

• Support for the carbon price is essentially unchanged on a month ago, with support up one to 37% and opposition steady at 59%, and 3% thinking themselves better off (steady), 38% worse off (down two) and 54% unchanged (steady).

UPDATES 3 & 4: It’s Monday madness in polldom, with Roy Morgan also bringing its publication forward a day to join with the regular Essential Research. The latter deflates the Labor balloon a little, showing two-party preferred steady at 55-45 and the Coalition actually gaining a point on the primary vote, to 48%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 34% and 9%. However, Julia Gillard is found to have done a lot better on leader attribute measures than when the questions were posed in the April 2 poll, which was also a 55-45 result.

The biggest movers for Gillard are “out of touch with ordinary people”, down nine to 56%, and “superficial”, down eight to 46%, while her smallest improvement is on “understands the problems facing Australia”, which is up two to 43%. Tony Abbott meanwhile rates over 50% on every negative measure, ranging for 51% for erratic to 63% for arrogant. On positive attributes, both leaders score strongest on “hard-working” (Gillard 69%, Abbott 67%) and “intelligent” (68% and 62%), and weakest on “trustworthy” (30% each), “visionary” (31% and 29%) and “more honest than other politicians” (31% and 27%).

Essential offers further interesting reading in the shape of an exercise on drug laws, in which propositions about policy responses were worded slightly differently for two separate sub-samples. The results were found to be all but identical, with across-the-board support for the hardest available line. The most liberal finding was of 38% support for cannabis decriminalisation, with 49% opposed. Elsewhere, a startling 83% said they were willing to sign on for “government legislation to prevent people from using social media to attack and bully individuals”, against 9% opposed.

The Morgan face-to-face poll combines results for the last two weekend’s surveying, and nudges further in favour of Labor to give them another best-result-since-March. On the primary vote, Labor is up a point to 35%, the Coalition is down one to 40.5%, and the Greens are up half a point to 12%. That comes out as a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition if allocating preferences as per the previous election result, as is done by all the pollsters measured above, or at 53.5-46.5 according to the curiously pro-Coalition preference allocations nominated by its respondents.

Other news:

• The Queensland Greens have selected Adam Stone, who ran in Mount Coot-tha at the state election and was touted during the campaign as the party’s “senior candidate”, to lead their Senate ticket at the next election. Stone has “worked in policy roles within the State and Commonwealth public services and as an advisor in the Federal Parliament”. Other candidates for the preselection were Libby Connors, a history lecturer at the University of Southern Queensland, and Jim McDonald, a former union official and industrial relations lecturer, who respectively ran in Yeerongpilly and Noosa at the state election.

• Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports on polling for an unspecified party showing underwhelming support for the Nationals in Hume, where they were said to be running by the Greens on a voting intention question that didn’t specify candidates. The Nationals are hoping to gain the seat from the Liberals with the retirement of Alby Schultz, with Senator Fiona Nash and state MPs Katrina Hodgkinson and Niall Blair discussed as possible candidates to run against the Liberals’ Angus Taylor.

• Katherine Feeney of Fairfax reports Jane Prentice, the LNP member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, has seen off preselection challenges from Jonathon Flegg, son of state government minister Bruce Flegg, and pharmacist John Caris.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,767 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. davidwh

    I did not recognise the name Libby Riddles but looking it up I do remember the huge publicity she got winning that race .
    I looked at a bit more stuff about Helen and crikey she is one tough lady. Take this effort at aged 60. SFA men of any age would be able to do it.

    [1997…Helen walked alone for 625 miles in Antarctica, pulling her own 260 pound sled, unresupplied. During the expedition she celebrated her 60th birthday alone on the polar ice cap with a frozen cup cake and one candle. She had no radio or voice contact with the outside world. She was the only living being in the area she traveled. She said, “It was like living on the moon.”]
    http://www.helenthayer.com/achievements.htm

  3. Last night whilst sitting down and flicking with the remote whilst waiting for evening meal I was disturbed to hear Jerrys’ voice as usual whining about business’s closing due to the failure of the govt. to put a GST on internet sales. His slightly higher than usual pitched whine was explained when he stated that ” even some of his relatives were using the internet to shop.”…….. The bastards.
    The wife then said that it was obvious that they were not using a HN computer as she didn’t think that they were capable of being used for the internet.

  4. “@ABCNews24: The Fed Court will announce if Australian investors in Lehman Brothers will be compensated. Live shortly on #ABCNews24”

  6. Didn’t take long for the libs to bite after the speech by Me Swan this morning.

    Abbott and Hockey are locked in defending the Tea party. I would bot be surprised if the Democrats and labor are enjoying good non offical communications leading up to the US elections.

    I am now even more sure that Mr Swan is very very confident about the budget.

  8. [I understand that you can see Russia from the North Shore]

    You can see Strathfield from the North Shore and that’s pretty much the same thing…

  10. zoidlord MsLaurie and poroti – so many answers to Boswell’s comments but mostly SK hits it on the LNP nail.

    [We wimmun just sit at home in our crinolines and kiss curls waiting helplessly until a man deigns to assist us frail females!]

    Aaaarrgghhh!!

  12. POLICE have arrested two people who were circulating an anti-LNP petition on a university campus, in an action described as “insane” by fellow activists.

    Student and activist Kat Henderson said she witnessed the arrest this morning, in which police handcuffed protestors at the Queensland University of Technology Kelvin Grove campus and took them away in a police van after they refused to identify themselves to security and leave campus voluntarily.

    The days of Joh and the Special Branch appear to be back …

    h­ttp://www.couriermail.com.au/news/activists-circulating-anti-lnp-petition-arrested-by-police-at-queensland-university-of-technology/story-e6freon6-1226478858499

  15. I have to inform Ron Boswell that as a single mum I managed to take my two sons to soccer, martial arts, swimming club and a whole stack of other blokey activities. They didn’t want to go camping and they most emphatically didn’t want to be Scouts. Actually they did more of the bloke stuff than many of their friends who came from two parent families. So nyah nyah nyah to you Mr B. You can take your mediaeval attitude towards women and parenting with you when you leave the senate.

  16. [1997…Helen walked alone for 625 miles in Antarctica, pulling her own 260 pound sled, unresupplied. During the expedition she celebrated her 60th birthday alone on the polar ice cap with a frozen cup cake and one candle. She had no radio or voice contact with the outside world. She was the only living being in the area she traveled. She said, “It was like living on the moon.”]

    Yeah! but could she handle a boy kid playing footy 🙂 🙂

    poroti – that is one awesome lady to go with many others. Perhaps Boswell doesn’t read anything but LNP stuff.

  20. Hockey getting some ground work in for either refusing to submit his costings to treasury or claiming they are biased in assessing it.

    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2012/09/21/1226478/783842-hockey-letter.pdf

    I’m sure labor could dig up an mountain of PS coin being spent on much more partisan actions during the howard years if this becomes an issue – hopefully directly from hockey. The liberal PR HQ (The Australian) picked up and published hockey’s media release within minutes and no doubt will try to marry it with the campaign justifying sacking public servants. Labor could reply with “It is hardly up there with making up stuff about children overboard for your minister – it is simply tracking how the opposition voted. Public servants routinely keep track of opposition’s positions and policies, so they can consider them in planning and making decisions”.

  21. sustainable future:

    yes, I’ve noticed over the past week, the Noalition has repeatedly talked about their ‘positive agenda’ and prissy had the audacity to say ‘we will continue to promote our positive agenda’ and ‘we always put forward a positive agenda’. their polling must be telling them why people are sick of abbott, and they know his wall punching is the tip of the ice berg for negative stuff to come out about Mr ‘no specific knowledge’. Labor – which can run a positive agenda/message, but doesn’t do it well – should do so.

    I do very much like the Coalition reaction to voters walking away from their negative agenda. Just tell them, “No, it’s a positive agenda.”

    Problem solved, let’s get back to bashing the ALP.

  22. [I do very much like the Coalition reaction to voters walking away from their negative agenda. Just tell them, “No, it’s a positive agenda.”]

    yes Aguirre – it is audacious newspeak. I await to hear them all spouting “It is a positive agenda. It has always been a positive agenda, and only The Worst Government in History would say that it isn’t a positive agenda – this is is a Toxic Tack taken by the Worst Government in History. They need to Stop the Gloats about our positive agenda”

  25. While watching Tone’s Today interview I noticed that he has adopted a weird new hairstyle, a comb-over at the front and a sort of comb forward at the top. He had combed some fluff forward to try to hide his rapidly growing baldness. Shots taken yesterday do not show this odd attempt at camouflage. It’s getting to the stage where Tone won’t be able to go outside without a hairnet to keep his few, carefully arranged hairs in place.

  26. leone – very well done. If it’s not Brady Bunch stuff then nothing else is good enough for the LNP.

    I see shades of JohBP in Qld today with anti-newman people being arrested. I can see OPT’s days back again with protests breaking out everywhere against the Qld Govt. They deserve it. I’m still trying to get over Newman taking money off worthy causes to build an LNP monolith.

  27. Abbott said Handbag hit squad was a witty line used by a backbencher – is Julie Bishop on the backbench after using it during QT yesterday?

  28. [yes, I’ve noticed over the past week, the Noalition has repeatedly talked about their ‘positive agenda’ and prissy had the audacity to say ‘we will continue to promote our positive agenda’]

    War is peace
    Freedom is slavery
    Ignorance is Strength

  29. http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/if-you-like-sarah-palin-youll-absolutely-love-cory-bernardi/390/

    [By Mike Seccombe
    POLITICS | September 21, 2012
    IF YOU LIKE SARAH PALIN, YOU’LL ABSOLUTELY LOVE CORY BERNARDI

    He’s not just a homophobic, Islamophobic, climate-change denying South Australian senator, he’s an ideological entrepreneur, importing the Tea Party’s ‘astroturf’ techniques and now training others in the faux-grassroots campaigns first cultivated by the American far right.

    Gee, it’s been a big week for the Tea Party. And not just in America, where the wingnuts who infiltrated the party of Lincoln now look set to lose what should be an unlosable election.

    It’s been a big week, too, for Cory Bernardi, the Antipodean standard-bearer for the values and tactics of the American far right.]

  30. leone – yes, it is looking more like howard’s comb over by the day. all that money on a face lift and botox (or is he on beta blockers to try to stop him hitting someone) and now he’ll need Hair Fusion.

    note – too much testosterone causes balding and excess body hair. I’m surprised he wasn’t bald at 20.

  31. [Perhaps Boswell can’t read.]

    Real men, real National Party men, don’t need to read, except for the important stuff like ‘Shut the Gate’. Reading is for poofter, nancy-boy sissy city types. Real men have women to read things to them. It gives the poor silly things something to do when they aren’t making scones or doing the ironing and leaves the men time for important stuff like …er…ahhh…stuff.

  38. The Libs have no hope of convincing the punters that they have a positive approach simply by saying that they do and I’m amazed at their naievity if they think they can.

    Peta may not be the genius she thinks she is if that is the best she can do.

  40. leone@5631 – just luv it. Silly statements from men like Boswell deserve that response.

    Only consolation is that many younger males are being taught by good women that the world has changed since Boswell came into it.

  43. BH
    I hate to think what my sons – now in their thirties – would do or say if Ron Boswell said those things about single mums to them.

  47. Rua – the report said that the 2 people arrested wouldn’t leave when asked but what constitutes trespassing on University grounds. I thought it was open to all of us regardless of whether you studied there or not.

    Was it LNP people who objected to them being there?

  50. [Abbott said Handbag hit squad was a witty line used by a backbencher – is Julie Bishop on the backbench after using it during QT yesterday?]
    Pyne used the line yesterday too

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