James J reports a somewhat interesting result from Newspoll, with the two parties locked together at 50-50, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (up three on a fortnight ago), 41% for the Coalition (down five) and 12% for the Greens (up four from an anomalous and over-hyped result last time). The Labor two-party and Coalition primary and two-party figures were all last seen at this level in the poll of 18-20 February 2011, while Labor was last at 36% on the primary vote in the poll of 18-20 March 2011. Julia Gillard has shot to a resounding 46-32 lead as preferred prime minister, up from 39-38, and she is also up five on approval to 36% and down five on disapproval to 52%. This 10-point improvement in her net rating follows a 7% improvement in the previous poll. Tony Abbott meanwhile is down one on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 60%.
UPDATE: Troy Bramston on Twitter reports Nielsen has the Coalition leading 53-47 (down from 54-46 last month), from primary votes of 34% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is in the unfamiliar position of having a personal approval rating with a four in front of it, although this is partly to do with the unusually low uncommitted results Nielsen gets on its personal ratings. Her approval is at 42%, up three, and her disapproval is at 53%, down four. Tony Abbott meanwhile is down three to 36% and up two to 59%, which is five points worse than what was previously his weakest net rating from Nielsen. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 46-45 to 47-44.
UPDATE 2: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. In brief:
• The poll finds 44% saying they would vote Labor against 41% for the Coalition if Kevin Rudd was leader, for a two-party lead to Labor of 53-47, though I personally take these sorts of questions with a grain of salt.
• Kevin Rudd continues to lead Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader, but his lead is down from 60-31 to 55-37. Gillard leads 52-47 among Labor supporters.
• Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand has a commanding 63-30 lead over Tony Abbott, including a 53-45 lead among Coalition supporters.
• On the state breakdowns, Labor’s two-party vote is at 47% in New South Wales (up two), 49% in Victoria (down one), 42% in Queensland (up one), 44% in Western Australia (down two) and 54% in South Australia/Northern Territory (up seven), remembering the sample sizes on the smaller states in particular are extremely small.
• Support for the carbon price is essentially unchanged on a month ago, with support up one to 37% and opposition steady at 59%, and 3% thinking themselves better off (steady), 38% worse off (down two) and 54% unchanged (steady).
UPDATES 3 & 4: It’s Monday madness in polldom, with Roy Morgan also bringing its publication forward a day to join with the regular Essential Research. The latter deflates the Labor balloon a little, showing two-party preferred steady at 55-45 and the Coalition actually gaining a point on the primary vote, to 48%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 34% and 9%. However, Julia Gillard is found to have done a lot better on leader attribute measures than when the questions were posed in the April 2 poll, which was also a 55-45 result.
The biggest movers for Gillard are “out of touch with ordinary people”, down nine to 56%, and “superficial”, down eight to 46%, while her smallest improvement is on “understands the problems facing Australia”, which is up two to 43%. Tony Abbott meanwhile rates over 50% on every negative measure, ranging for 51% for erratic to 63% for arrogant. On positive attributes, both leaders score strongest on “hard-working” (Gillard 69%, Abbott 67%) and “intelligent” (68% and 62%), and weakest on “trustworthy” (30% each), “visionary” (31% and 29%) and “more honest than other politicians” (31% and 27%).
Essential offers further interesting reading in the shape of an exercise on drug laws, in which propositions about policy responses were worded slightly differently for two separate sub-samples. The results were found to be all but identical, with across-the-board support for the hardest available line. The most liberal finding was of 38% support for cannabis decriminalisation, with 49% opposed. Elsewhere, a startling 83% said they were willing to sign on for “government legislation to prevent people from using social media to attack and bully individuals”, against 9% opposed.
The Morgan face-to-face poll combines results for the last two weekend’s surveying, and nudges further in favour of Labor to give them another best-result-since-March. On the primary vote, Labor is up a point to 35%, the Coalition is down one to 40.5%, and the Greens are up half a point to 12%. That comes out as a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition if allocating preferences as per the previous election result, as is done by all the pollsters measured above, or at 53.5-46.5 according to the curiously pro-Coalition preference allocations nominated by its respondents.
Other news:
• The Queensland Greens have selected Adam Stone, who ran in Mount Coot-tha at the state election and was touted during the campaign as the party’s “senior candidate”, to lead their Senate ticket at the next election. Stone has “worked in policy roles within the State and Commonwealth public services and as an advisor in the Federal Parliament”. Other candidates for the preselection were Libby Connors, a history lecturer at the University of Southern Queensland, and Jim McDonald, a former union official and industrial relations lecturer, who respectively ran in Yeerongpilly and Noosa at the state election.
• Leslie White of the Weekly Times reports on polling for an unspecified party showing underwhelming support for the Nationals in Hume, where they were said to be running by the Greens on a voting intention question that didn’t specify candidates. The Nationals are hoping to gain the seat from the Liberals with the retirement of Alby Schultz, with Senator Fiona Nash and state MPs Katrina Hodgkinson and Niall Blair discussed as possible candidates to run against the Liberals’ Angus Taylor.
• Katherine Feeney of Fairfax reports Jane Prentice, the LNP member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, has seen off preselection challenges from Jonathon Flegg, son of state government minister Bruce Flegg, and pharmacist John Caris.
Lery
The last sentence re the piece on Berardi is interesting indeed.
[He has now gone rogue]
I know it sounds silly in this day and age (because it is), but police have move on powers which if ignored can be the basis for arrest. Sounds more likely than trespass
[News JConference re court case]
Note to Tony Abbott and his front bench.
A ‘witty’ remark may be amusing the first time you hear it,mildy amusing the second time and after that it’s just boring repetition. As Voltaire said ‘A witty saying proves nothing’.
Voltaire on bores
______________
Voltaire said..” the secret to be a complete bore is to tell everybody everything “
so boswell expresses his confidence in the noalition, sniffs the wind and jumps ship, not ready to face the hard grind of another 3 years in opposition.
From what I read it was the Uni Security staff who asked the couple to identify themselves. Do they have the right to ask this question?
More on Obama’s poll position
Obama Takes Lead Over Romney in Three More Swing-State Polls
[The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll gave Obama identical five-percentage point leads, 50 percent to 45 percent, in Colorado and Wisconsin, and an eight-point advantage in Iowa, 50 percent to 42 percent.
An NBC/Journal poll of likely voters released last week put Obama ahead of Romney 49 percent to 44 percent in Florida and Virginia, and leading with 50 percent to 43 percent in Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without carrying Ohio.
Obama has opened a lead in many national and state polls since the Democratic National Convention earlier this month in Charlotte, North Carolina. ]
Based on comments on Abbott’s unusual hair styling he may well be on the way to being Australia’s Donald Trump.
Boswell is over 70 years of age. In all fairness you can’t blame him for wanting to retire. It’s just a shame he didn’t do it years ago. I’m sure the Nats could have found some sort of Bananaby clone to replace him.
[I hate to think what my sons – now in their thirties – would do or say if Ron Boswell said those things about single mums to them.]
leone – my daughter too. On her own for 9.5 years and coached AusKick/Jnr AFL fantastically. Like you, she took kids bushwalking, camping, train to the SCG to watch the Swannies, surfing, etc. It was hard work at the time but it’s paid huge dividends as they are awesome young adults now. She has female friends who did the same and that’s why I have absolutely no respect for Boswell and his fusty old mindset.
Way to lose the female vote LNP.
Having great fun on Twitter with Nancy Cato and another tweeter re Cory B flying to UK “Cattle” class
ruawake
Assuming the Uni is private land, then all persons entering for a lawful purpose are licenced to remain on the land. The licence can be revoked by an authorised person. Part of the revoking process may be ascertaining why the persons are present on the land.
The whole thing sounds like bullshit, nevertheless.
From memory he wanted to retire in 2007 but was worried about Joyce gaining a higher place on the L-NP ticket with him gone. How things change.
[From what I read it was the Uni Security staff who asked the couple to identify themselves. Do they have the right to ask this question?]
Rua – That’s the question I would like answered. The report I read said that they refused to give their names but is that reason to arrest them? We probably need a better report.
On the NSW thread, shellbell posted crikey rumour of no ALP candidate in Sydney by-election.
From local newspaper coverage, looks like this might be true:
[Members of inner-Sydney Labor branches have branded NSW Labor head office “gutless” for refusing to run a candidate in the upcoming Sydney by-election.
The ALP Sydney State Electorate Council unanimously voted to condemn the decision by NSW Labor, with the council’s president Dr Sacha Blumen describing the decision as a sign of contempt for ALP members and supporters.
“Not running is a gutless no-show by John Robertson and Sussex St,” Dr Blumen said.
“Not running vacates the field to Labor’s electoral opponents in inner Sydney. Local ALP branches called for a preselection months ago. Three talented members were willing to stand for preselection.”
“This is the shameful victory of empty Sussex St tactics over substance.”
Dr Blumen, who ran in the 2008 local government election and 2011 state election, said the decision may have implications for the 2013 federal election and future state and local elections.
Independent candidate Alex Greenwich welcomed the decision by NSW Labor yesterday after being endorsed by outgoing MP and Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore.
The decision by NSW Labor is viewed as a strategic move to to not split the progressive vote, giving Liberal candidate Shayne Mallard less chance of securing the seat.
At this stage the battle for Sydney is set to be contested by Alex Greenwich (Independent), Shayne Mallard (Liberal) and Chris Harris (Greens).]
http://wentworth-courier.whereilive.com.au/news/story/sydney-labor-members-slam-gutless-head-office/
Is there any truth in the rumour that Mr Boswell has offered his body for science and is to be turned into a float device to measure sea level change?
[Boswell is over 70 years of age. In all fairness you can’t blame him for wanting to retire. It’s just a shame he didn’t do it years ago.]
ruddock must be twice his age leonne, but i agree he should have retired years ago his views belong to a long past bygone era
Is alcohol heavier or lighter than water?
[Having great fun on Twitter with Nancy Cato and another tweeter re Cory B flying to UK “Cattle” class]
will he seek a ban on the donkey vote at the next election
davidwh
Alcohol has an SG of 0.86 as I recall so is lighter than water.
davidwh,
Yes.
Shellbell
Hardly private land.
Will Bernardi let sleeping dogs lie?
[Is alcohol heavier or lighter than water?]
Throw Boswell in a pond and see if he floats 🙂
Here comes the Handbag Hit Squad to your neighbourhood –
… (btw: thanks to @GeorgeBludger for the miracle of Penny Wong)
Some really bizarre things go on in this world we live in:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-21/amish-sect-found-guilty-of-hate-crimes-in-beard-cutting/4273766
‘Mullet’?
BK,
Maybe the cat’s giving him tongue!
davidwh
I just checked and ethyl alcohol’s SG is 0.785.
According the the CM report on the uni incident the person arrested was banned from the university from a previous incident which may explain why security took the action they did.
[castle
Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink
Having great fun on Twitter with Nancy Cato and another tweeter re Cory B flying to UK “Cattle” class]
Means he has lost all his votes then, must be donkeys to vote for him, no unfair to donkeys and asses
will he seek a ban on the donkey vote at the next election
‘The Australian’ plays it straight:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/arctic-sea-ice-cover-smallest-on-record/story-e6frg8y6-1226477914672
depends on temperature of each.
Thanks BK in that case Boerwar’s rumour may have legs.
How can they ban someone from the Village?
thanks shellbell – sounds like trespass then.
Part of the story in the Economist, the other part for me is summarised by the Global Mail article from a little while ago.
http://www.economist.com/node/21563311?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ragebutalsoselfcriticism
[Islam and the protests
Rage, but also self-criticism
Though most Muslims felt insulted by a film trailer that disparaged the Prophet Muhammad, many were embarrassed by the excesses of protesters and preachers
Sep 22nd 2012 | CAIRO | from the print edition]
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/blame-the-sheikhs/384/
[By Jess Hill
POLITICS | September 17, 2012
BLAME THE SHEIKHS
As American symbols burn, whether embassies or fast-food joints, it’s hardline religious leaders far afield fomenting the false outrage.]
Very clever of Labor to start aligning themselves with the Democrats. Obama features Julia prominently in a video clip on YouTube – his ratings here are extremely high and with an Obama win likely this is very good politics. We will see more of it I think.
rua mot sure about any village as the article mentioned the university campus.
[Thanks BK in that case Boerwar’s rumour may have legs.]davidwh
What rumour is that?
An excellent result from the Federal Court with Lehman Brthers being found guilty on the sale of CDOs to Councils and charities in Australia. This is a test case with wide implications, as well as being worth up to $250 million in itself:
[A group of Australian councils, charities and churches has won a Federal Court case against defunct investment bank Lehman Brothers in a case which could have global ramifications.
The judgment is considered a test case as it is the first in the world to look at the conduct of an investment bank, on both legal and ethical grounds, in the lead-up the global financial crisis and how they behaved in the aftermath.
The class action involved 72 councils, churches and charities who sued Lehman Brothers for around $250 million, claiming it breached contracts and engaged in misleading and negligent conduct.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-21/lehmann-brothers-test-case/4273896
So good for our justice system; it appears to have worked. The real embarrassement is that, five years on, no judgement has yet been handed down on this by the SEC or a US court. The products originated in USA, and the losses there extended into the many hundreds of billions. At this point the US Justice Department, and the SEC, have far less credibility as regulators than the Austalian financial system.
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink
Is there any truth in the rumour that Mr Boswell has offered his body for science and is to be turned into a float device to measure sea level change?]
The Australian arm of Lehman Bros has about 230 million dollars. It appears that the class action is seeking damages of around 700 million. Claimants may be lucky to get back 33 cents in the dollar?
This is way too simple but any thing which is not crown land or council land etc is private land.
An authorised Westfield officer could eject me from a Westfield shopping centre especially if I was in a common area. Might be more difficult if I was in a shop as the lessor of the shop has rights as well.
Socrates
My post at 5693 summarises some of the comments made by the Legal eagles at the Presser about 20 minutes ago. I am awaiting some further reporting on the presser
BK
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink
Is there any truth in the rumour that Mr Boswell has offered his body for science and is to be turned into a float device to measure sea level change?]
poroti
NOW I get it!
🙂
poroti
Did you see my reply to your comment last night? Want to know how many we have” to go and get” before we reach and catch Big Dadda himself
Roy Morgan, sample of 668:
Preferred Labor leader: Rudd 34 (+1 since Jan), Gillard 22 (+3), Smith 9 (-1), Swan 7 (-1), Combet 4 (-), Shorten 4 (-4).
Preferred Liberal leader: Turnbull 42 (+5), Abbott 19 (-3), Hockey 18 (-1), Bishop 7 (+1).
Shouldn’t be too hard on Senator Ron. I met him a few times and he is OK really for a member of the dark side. The meetings were business related rather than political related.