Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin has been held by Labor without interruption since its creation, but like all the party’s Queensland seats has looked precarious during the worst of its polling during the current term. The seat came into being with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, at which time it extended far beyond the bounds of the metropolitan area to the south-west, encompassing Warwick and a stretch of the New South Wales border. It is now located wholly in the outer south of suburban Brisbane, covering the northern part of Logan City from Woodridge and Kingston north to Priestdale and west to Hillcrest. The redistribution before the 2010 election drew it further into the metropolitan area, adding Algester, Calamvale and Drewvale north of the Logan-Brisbane municipal boundary. This territory accounts for much of Brisbane’s mortgage belt, and furnishes the seat with the equal lowest median age of any electorate in Australia. The Logan area is the source of Labor’s strength, but it is balanced by naturally marginal territory around Calamvale to the west and Springwood to the east.
Prior to the 1996 election, the seat was a highly marginal combination of Labor-voting outer suburbia and conservative rural areas, which Labor held by margins of between 0.6% and 5.5%. It was then transformed with the transfer of the rural areas to Forde and the compensating gain of low-income Brisbane suburbs, which boosted the margin by 9.8%. In the event Labor needed every bit of it to survive the Queensland backlash of 1996, which in Rankin manifested in an 11.1% swing. An unfavourable redistribution ahead of the 2004 election cut the margin by 5.3%, but there followed a 0.8% swing against the statewide trend at that election, followed by a 8.8% swing when the Rudd government came to power. The backlash of 2010 produced a swing to the LNP of 6.3%, cutting the margin to 5.4%.
Rankin has had only two members since its creation: Craig Emerson since 1998, and David Beddall beforehand. Emerson emerged through the Labor Forum/Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Queensland Right, working over the years as an adviser to Hawke government ministers and then to Hawke himself, before taking on senior state public service positions in Queensland under the Goss government. After one term in parliament he rose to the shadow ministry, serving in the workplace relations portfolio in the lead-up to the 2004 election. He was then contentiously dropped after losing the support of his faction, a legacy of his defiance of powerbroker Bill Ludwig in supporting Mark Latham’s successful leadership bid in December 2003 (which by no stretch of the imagination spared him the lash of The Latham Diaries).
Emerson’s career returned to the ascendant after Labor came to power in 2007. spent the first term in the junior small business portfolio and further acquired competition policy and consumer affairs in June 2009, before winning promotion to cabinet as Trade Minister after the 2010 election. On the morning of the July 2010 leadership coup he announced he would support Kevin Rudd if it came to a ballot, but he took a very different tack during Rudd’s February 2012 challenge, accusing him of having undermined the government ever since the election campaign. Emerson achieved, for better or worse, considerable penetration of the soft media in July 2012, with his semi-musical critique of the Coalition’s campaign against the carbon tax.
An LNP preselection in July 2012 attracted six candidates and was won by David Lin, a 39-year-old Taiwanese-born solicitor who founded the Sushi Station restaurant chain at the age of 22.
I presume given Essentials rolling averages, that last week was better for Labor than the week before?
victoria
Possum may be working on something re increasing the randomness (i.e. deviation either way from the overall trend over time) of Newspoll & other phone polls. See his timeline from last night. He had some graphs. So for if example Newspoll is around LNP 52 – ALP 48, and we get a 50-50 then a 54-46, each poll will produce silly horserace articles reading false significance into the last fornights events.
https://twitter.com/Pollytics
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
That’s probably all a bit obscure – will write an article covering it fully. Meanwhile, here’s a graph http://twitpic.com/b42afg
9:58 PM – 14 Oct 12
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
This is an example of why we have pathetic political analysis – commentary based on polls based on randomness http://twitpic.com/b428cd
9:54 PM – 14 Oct 12]
The coalition has lost the election by default with abbott
I believe the theory is that the events of the last week, and ‘the speech’ in particular, will be polarizing – people who sat on the fence will come out strongly for Gillard or Abbott depending on their perspective.
Perhaps that has been borne out by these results.
Von Kirsdarke@1840
This has been my long-held view. If more needs to be learned in a day, the school days should be longer and summer holdidays shorter. After all the school calender was originally set up to not interfere with child labour in homes and farms and to free kids to help with the summer harvests. Not many kids go home to feed the livestock anymore.
Leroy
Will be interesting to see what Possum comes up with because Newspoll is rather curious of late
Andrew – I’ve given up trying to guess Essential’s latest weeks. Aguirre seemed to get it right last time, so be interested to know what he thinks.
Maybe it is just me, but I was also surprised that the “piece of work” comment did not rate much of a mention – in all my days I have never heard “piece of work” applied to a male. And most times I hear it, its preceded by “nasty”.
leone@1817
Mr Seselja is doing himself no favours:
[Canberra Liberals Leader Zed Seselja says he is not aware of the incident.
He says he does not support harassing behaviour but has accused Ms Gallagher of over-reacting.
“I think calling the police appears to be an act of intimidation against them,” he said.
“I think it seems to be a gross over reaction from Katy Gallagher.”]
The Libs have never led Labor by 32%. Also if the most extreme result was 60-40 to libs in the past and the sample taken when 55-45 then they must have had to create a bias to achieve 60% to Libs. Seems flawed to me.
Puff
There is a lot to be said in Australia for two shifts for teaching students in a day. This way you can avoid the peak heat in the afternoon and reduce air con costs and make better use of resources available for teaching.
Tony is being so successful in Indonesia.
First he shows the impeccable manners that only an expensive private school education can give by planting his foot on a table where small children are eating.
https://twitter.com/mulgabob/status/257660368044830720/photo/1/large
Sensitive Tony hasn’t noticed that the adults are looking at his foot.
Then he tells one lie to the Indonesians which is at odds with the lies he tells us.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/abbott-sends-mixed-messages-clare/story-e6frfku9-1226496130962?from=public_rss
And still the polls insist his approval rate is on the up. Who do they ask? Pond scum?
It seems that Gillard and Labor are helping each other to improve in this poll.
Julia’s personal improvement bodes well. Up 6 points.
Her speech seems to have polarized the electorate, because Abbott is up 5 also.
But coming off a lower PV base, plus-6 for Gillard is much more impressive than Abbott’s plus-5.
It’s taking time. It’s slow. It’s frustrating. There don’t seem to be any tectonic movements. But Labor is demonstrably improving and Gillard’s personal approval can’t hurt that at all… in fact may aid it.
Despite the blanket “context” push from the OM, it seems enough people have made up their own minds to outweigh it.
It could have been a terrible couple of weeks for Labor. Slipper forced to resign. Labor voting for him to stay. The Bali 10th anniversary reminding everyone who’s “strong” on National Security, and who’s not (at least not supposed to be). Unemployment up a bit. The banks not passing on the full interest rate reduction. The CFMEU joke that is so horrible we’re not allowed by the gatekeepers to hear it. The whole “context” thing. Even the bad weather in the Eastern States would have put a dampener on things.
But all of these have been somewhat ignored.
Labor has held its own and seems to be solidifying gains, both in leadership and voting intention.
Another few months of this and Labor is demonstrably competitive. As the Carbon Tax bogey sinks into the sunset, and the summer takes over with brighter prospects for all things are likely to improve ((except if you’re a Queensland public servant, or a farmer witnessing the start of an el Nino drought).
Being behind is never as relaxing as being in front, of course. But gaining ground from behind is the next best thing. Essential has finally broken into the high 40s for Labor, pretty significantly.
Perhaps the Abbott plus 5 is a lingering result of the “my darling husband ” blitz from his wife still washing through.
It would have been interesting to see approval stats last week after his wife went public so we could compare with this weeks figures.
53/47 seems disappointing, but it is a significant comeback, and not too bad a place to be even going into an election campaign.
The problem for Abbott is, how does he improve his position from here; he wont change tack, so he has no where to go but down? The PM has a a record and now improved personal standings (approval and PPM) to build on
donb
[in all my days I have never heard “piece of work” applied to a male. And most times I hear it, its preceded by “nasty”.]
Recalling my childhood, “nasty piece of work” was a regular refrain from my Anglo grandmother, and it was almost always a male she was referring to.
There’s also a song by Deep Purple with exactly that phrase as the title. Ah, the memories …
I’ll be expecting stories popping up in the Murdoch rags about how Abbott is the descendant of an Aztec Sun God who will bring limitless wealth and happiness to Australia if elected as prime minister.
After all, he has to be kept in the leadership and win in order to implement Rupert Murdoch’s neoconservative agenda as far as they’re concerned.
*in the lead up to the polls this weekend I should add.
How long until someone from the OM tells us the PM’s speech has FAILED because of this Essential? 15 minutes?
Shellbell posted this earlier. It would make anyone’s day (except Tony’s)
http://tonyandponies.tumblr.com/
[in all my days I have never heard “piece of work” applied to a male. And most times I hear it, its preceded by “nasty”.]
When I saw that I wondered why he said it. Gillard hadn’t done anything particularly “piece of work-ey” to my mind. Just the usual cut and thrust. Made me wonder how often he sledges her like this.
Andrew
How is it a fail? Her numbers have improved
[Did Senator Milne say it was wrong to defend the Office of Speaker.? The DT article leaves the impression that Senator Milne did.]
guytaur – late answering, sorry. Had people drop in. Milne did say that it was wrong to defend Slipper. Quick as a flash Simon Benson said ‘well why did Adam Bandt support the Govt. in the motion’. Milne was a bit abashed at that but fumbled around to justify Bandt’s vote.
[GMegalogenis So male journos say @JuliaGillard shouldn’t have called @TonyAbbottMHR a misogynist because suburban blokes don’t like her. Funny that.]
good poll for Julia – highest approval rating for 18 months, if I read it right
BH
Defending Mr Slipper is different to defending the Office os Speaker.
It does sound like Senator Milne fumbled her response on Sky for whatever reason. However the Party got it right. They voted with Labor to defend the Office in the person of Mr Bandt.
You see here more spin. Journo implying defending one means defending the other.
Jackol@1836
From what I’ve been reading, the press gallery are suggesting the Government move on. Well, they’re demanding it, to be accurate. They’re also demanding the Government explain itself, denounce Slipper for misogyny, exonerate Abbott from misogyny, root out misogyny in its own party, rise above the issue, engage with it, STOP ATTACKING TONY!, be consistent, break away from current thinking, honour parliamentary convention, do something parliament hasn’t done in 100 years, just put up with whatever Abbott says lest they be accused of hypocrisy, understand the ‘context’, and for Gillard to admit she was lying all that time when she said Abbott’s words didn’t affect her because they clearly did, that lying liar.
I read Katharine Murphy’s article earlier, and I was going to take issue with this:
[ It’s equally pointless for a remote audience selecting its own facts, and its preferred interpretation of them, to smash up reporters and commentators on the spot who want to deliver the banquet – all the elements of the event – not just the morsel the audience likes best. ]
At first thought I considered the idea of political reporters serving a ‘banquet’ to be utterly ridiculous. We’re certainly getting an elaborately prepared meal, but it’s the same one being served up by all of them – the different names don’t fool us.
But I had to reconsider thanks to Jackol’s post. There is a lot of variety in there. I wouldn’t have thought Gillard could be attacked from so many different directions, some of them completely contradictory to each other.
“@davidbewart: I call on @tonyjones to start #qanda with an apology to @KateEllisMP and an undertaking not to let it happen,again to anyone. @qanda #auspol”
Bushfire Bill
I think its fairly well known amongst the journos and politics watchers that Abbott sledges the PM during Parliament while the mikes are off him. I’ve seen it referred to a few times, but never as a main point.
victoria
[Andrew
How is it a fail? Her numbers have improved]
In the world of the OO “It just is”.
Essential is good, IMHO. The PM continues to pull away from the the LOTO.
1865
Andrew
[53/47 seems disappointing, but it is a significant comeback, and not too bad a place to be even going into an election campaign.]
Doesn’t Essential use a two poll rolling average?
Meaning this is actually a pretty good result for Labor?
And I agree, nicely on trend for the government.
This is the full context (that word again) of the “piece of work” interjection.
Gillard was commenting on the bill presented earlier on, and misrepresented as being an $800 increase due to the CT, when it fact it was the consumption figure that had doubled.:
[ JULIA GILLARD: … Let us for once have the opposition try to have a mature debate about the facts. Let us see an end to the reckless negativity and to the false fear campaign. The track record so far today is one bill referred to and misrepresented in this parliament—it actually showed a 9.13 per cent increase because of carbon pricing. The nature of the misrepresentation of this bill I cannot judge because the documents are being covered up.
Mr Abbott: You are a piece of work.
Mrs Markus: I am not covering up the documents. I seek leave to table—
Ms Gillard: On a point of order, Madam Speaker: the Leader of the Opposition just referred to me as a ‘piece of work’. I require that to be withdrawn.
The SPEAKER: I ask the Leader of the Opposition to withdraw.
Mr Abbott: I am happy to withdraw.
Mrs Markus: In the interests of transparency, I am more than happy to seek leave to table the document. ]
victoria the PV is down a point and the 2PP unchanged. This will be used to justify their negative spin on the speech.
French schools have longer hours and a bigger lunch break.
They used to open on Saturday mornings.
I have yet to see any member of the MSM to pick up on the disjunct between Mr Abbott promising no policy surprises when the official trip by Mr Abbott and his cohorts was a last minute arrangement, presumably designed to steal oxygen from Ms Gillard’s visit to Afghanistan and India, the latter to stitch up some good news for uraniaum investors in Western Australia.
[How is it a fail? Her numbers have improved]
It will only be a success when Abbott resigns in shame and the Coalition all join the Labor Party as a way of saying sorry for all the personal sledging.
Other than that: GILLARD FAIL.
Andrew
I agree Shanahan, Bolt and Akerman will try it on. However Lenore Taylore, Mega and the like will not. They have been blasted by too many people for the whole context thing.
The utterly stupid part of the OM buy-in to the LNP line on this is the concept that Tony Abbott, or anyone else, can just move a “popularity contest” stunt vote at any time and we are supposed to take it seriously.
Sometimes votes are defeated because it’s not the right time, or because it’s a stunt. It’s not a matter of naively just saying you voted for/against X, therefore you believe/don’t believe in X. Context, what context OM?
Tony Abbott could move a motion that said that the HoR should henceforth refuse to accept petitions that include signatures from paedophiles. It would be a stupid, meaningless motion, which should be defeated as unworkable and an assault on the democratic rights of all citizens to provide input to the parliament, but a vote against such a motion would likely be reported as “supporting paedophiles” by this OM.
Not to compare the Greens with the Tony Abbott led LNP, but the Greens frequently put motions/bills in to the Senate which are routinely voted down regardless of the headline merits or otherwise of the motion/bill in question. We don’t see the OM reporting each and every one of those defeats as the government (or opposition, who always joins them) voting against conservation or voting against transparency or whatever it might be.
It’s just Tony Abbott’s stunts that get reported as being a crucial moral test. Bias much? Lack of context much?
Bushfire Bill@1871
If comments are to be believed, every day. I think it is what PMJG meant when she said sexism ‘every day’.
I see that old man Murdoch has again endeared himself to the British public
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-15/murdoch-labels-hacking-victims-scumbag-celebrities/4313292
A +6 in Gillard’s personal rating has to be looked at in context (there I go again!).
There are many more Coalition voters, yet Abbott could still only score a +5 in his own rating.
I saw the interview of Ms Milne.
Summary: Greens good; Labor bad; Coalition bad.
Ms Milne indulged in the usual sky fairy/magic pudding Greens populism.
We can have it all and it will cost nothing.
No journalist asked Ms Milne about the Greens policy to give everyone an extra weeks holiday. Nor did they bother to ask what Ms Milne thought would be the impact of closing down Olympic Dam Mine, which is also Greens policy.
They were more interested in whether Ms Milne thought Mr Feeny’s joke was sexist. Ms Milne thought so. It was definitely a personal jibe at Ms Milne but I found it difficult to find any sexism per se in it.
I forgot to mention that the hard copy of the Herald sun had a full page story by Bolt. Subject matter appeared to be that PMJG needs to answer further questions re S&G snd Union
A matter re the PB Blog_
________________
William
The pale green lettering used on PB is harder to read(for my old eyes anyway) than a bolder colour would be
The Black lettering is fine…but any chance of a change in colour
Thanks for all your work too
[If comments are to be believed, every day. I think it is what PMJG meant when she said sexism ‘every day’.]
“Piece of work” isn’t sexist. It’s just nasty. Contrary to others here I’ve heard many males referred to as a “piece of work”.
[How long until someone from the OM tells us the PM’s speech has FAILED because of this Essential? 15 minutes?]
Did it take that long? I reckon we’ll ll hear ABC news bulletins all over it this arvo. After all, Tony Abbott’ Indonesian trip was headline news this morning on the early ABC radio bulletins and the PM’s trip was about 4th. Abbott got at least 4 sentences, the PM 1.
To cap that off I then saw that Eric Campbell has given up tweeting because of NewsLtd. Time for big questions to be asked.
If the quarterly info from Newspoll a few weeks back is reliable, the Federal voting intention in News South Wales and Qld is still the ceiling which needs to be smashed through for competitiveness to translate to victory.
victoria
Sounds like Mr Bolt’s Tinfoil hat has fallen off.
I have heard ‘piece of work, including ‘nasty or ‘right’ against males and females. It wasn’t sexist but the PM wanted it withdrawn, and it was.