Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

• Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 79
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  1. @ShowsOn/43

    I disagree, the fact that the polls have turned around are putting the pressure on Abbott and key figures in the Party.

    It’s not all about being in-front.

  4. AB

    Actually my work doesn’t celebrate Christmas either. We have and End of Year party instead of Xmas Party as we’ve got a few Jehovah’s Witnsses and they don’t celebrate Xmas.

  6. [Worst disapproval for an Opposition Leader since Downer.]

    I doubt that the Shamahan piece later tonight will mention that little gem

  11. [Diogenes
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 10:41 pm | PERMALINK
    AB

    Actually my work doesn’t celebrate Christmas either. We have and End of Year party instead of Xmas Party as we’ve got a few Jehovah’s Witnsses and they don’t celebrate Xmas.]

    Oh really? That’s interesting. But I suppose, need to try cater for other religions and cultures in the workplace.

  14. [Worst disapproval for an Opposition Leader since Downer.]

    I’m still in two minds about him being replaced. Who will he be replaced with (ie better the devil you know), vs the most divisive LOTO we’ve seen in a while (ie, get rid of it now!).

  15. Tom Hawkins,

    Lord (“Fishnets”) Downer of Baghdad had at least one thing going for him: he was and is good for a laugh.

    Mr Abbott? Going for him? Laugh?

    In the business, I think that once upon a time it was known as pancaking.

  16. confesssions

    Labor has the Coalition on the ropes on policy. Changing leader means burning two leaders with the Coalition losing to PMJG.

    I say BRING IT ON!!!!!

  18. The funniest part about Abbott’s approval figures is that he’s really been working on his image lately. He’s been softening his approach, speaking out against gutter politics, getting happy snaps with the wife and daughters, scaling back the SSOs, tweaking the negative language. And it’s only made things worse!

    Surely they’ve figured out that he’s damaged goods. Haven’t they?

  20. fiona@29


    but i bet all of you celebrate christmas


    I have always understood that the most important event of the Christian year is Easter.

    But then, I’m just a little ignorant non-Catholic, aren’t I?

    You mean the Easter Bunny takes precedence over the birthday of Santa Claus?
    (apologies to The Simpsons)

  22. Apple Blossom@31


    Centre,

    Have you got some evidence to provide those figures, or are they simply your own prediction on polls?

    I don’t think it’s fair to say undecides fall more to Labor, you cannot know because they did not give their say.

    On another note, there is still a while to go before the election. Polls are still subjected to change then and maybe more undecides will choose Labor.

    It is centre adopting Karl Rove methodologies.

  23. [The good thing about these numbers is that they aren’t quite bad enough yet for Abbott to get the axe.]
    Yeah I see that as a plus too.

    I worry that if a moderate like Turnbull or Hockey replaces Abbott, the Coalition will win.

    Abbott is keeping Labor in the game because he is border-line un-electable.

  26. Going back to the inception of Newspoll in 1985, Tony Abbott’s net approval rating as Opposition Leader is better than:

    – Alexander Downer’s last seven results before he was axed in January 1995;
    – Two of John Hewson’s final results before he was axed in May 1994;
    – Six of Andrew Peacock’s going into the 1990 election.

    That’s it though.

  29. @GreensJamieP: Wow what a bombshell. Father Brennan says the man standing next to the Pope would be in gaol if he wasn’t in Rome. #lateline #royalcomm

  33. [@William/76

    So are you thinking that Abbott will be gone by say May/June 2013 ?]
    But if Abbott is knocked off doesn’t that mean two shadow ministers will lose their extra pay?

    😀

  34. mm

    i hit on raw nerve i think with that one

    people dont like being reminded why they celerbrate
    christmas

    ah but i dont see any one asking people to stop critising the catholic church do i

    but it would be nice to see the morning news items
    with no links about catholic church

  35. [fiona
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 10:56 pm | PERMALINK
    William Bowe,

    I am sure that Mr Abbott is finding those stats a source of comfort.]

    More importantly the LNP heavyweights would be finding these stats a “great” deal of comfort too as they sharpen up the knives

  36. Not terribly worried about Abbott being replaced.
    Turnbull’s resurrection would split the party and drive the Nats insane
    Jo just doesn’t have the ticker (one of JWH’s most effective vote winners.

  39. [Centre
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:00 pm | PERMALINK
    BH @ 28

    Apple Blossom @ 31, the figures have been adjusted in accordance with my expertise ]

    Right….

  41. [Centre
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:00 pm | PERMALINK
    BH @ 28

    Apple Blossom @ 31, the figures have been adjusted in accordance with my expertise]
    And your expertise is world renowned especially when you come up with figures I like

  42. Pegasus@71


    Seems that the Greens Party vote hasn’t tanked as some were predicting would occur after Bob Brown’s retirement.

    No, but they are struggling. I put a piece up about this on my site at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/leadership-transition-polling-and-greens.html (for anyone who missed my spam the first time around.)

    Not struggling as much as Abbott though – his worst ever Newspoll and his worst ever Essential on the same day!

  43. I am loving Abbott’s numbers, not enough to boot him, but enough to make him panic, and then do what he always does, go harder! 👿 😀

  44. Pegasus@71


    Seems that the Greens Party vote hasn’t tanked as some were predicting would occur after Bob Brown’s retirement.

    Depends how you want to define it. I’m looking at graphs over at Pollytics, and it looks like the Greens PV was oscillating between 11 and 12 up until about May this year, and has since dropped down below 10. That’s lower than it’s been since the start of 2010.

    It’s certainly fallen away a bit. It’s probably going to float between 9 and 10 now.

  46. my say@84


    mm

    i hit on raw nerve i think with that one

    people dont like being reminded why they celerbrate
    christmas

    ah but i dont see any one asking people to stop critising the catholic church do i

    but it would be nice to see the morning news items
    with no links about catholic church

    Bart Simpson explained it – the birthday of Santa Claus.

    Anyway, Catholics don’t have a monopoly on it.

  47. [And your expertise is world renowned especially when you come up with figures I like]
    And isn’t that enough to make them true? Do you also believe in fairies?

  49. [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:03 pm | PERMALINK
    I am loving Abbott’s numbers, not enough to boot him, but enough to make him panic, and then do what he always does, go harder!]

    Beautifully put and the unhinging will become more and more apparent, as he realises, or at least Peta realises he is finished

  50. Kevin Bonham@92


    Pegasus@71

    Thanks for the link. I will check it out later.
    Seems that the Greens Party vote hasn’t tanked as some were predicting would occur after Bob Brown’s retirement.


    No, but they are struggling. I put a piece up about this on my site at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/leadership-transition-polling-and-greens.html (for anyone who missed my spam the first time around.)

    Not struggling as much as Abbott though – his worst ever Newspoll and his worst ever Essential on the same day!

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