Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

Comments Page 2 of 13
1 2 3 … 13

  3. Happy New Year all.

    William:

    If you want help with moderation, joe6pak, Bushfire Bill and fiona would be wonderful. They ran a great ship while PB was shut down and would make your job easier in your absence here.

  4. Henry 46
    ___Re Hegel

    He did vote for the attack on Irag,but later changed his view as the war developedd and became a voice for withdrawal…likewise Afghanistan

    This will be great news for the Palestinians especially if he talks with Hamas
    The old PLO and Hamas have just this week announced talks for unity in Gaza and on the West Bank
    meanwhile Isreal will move further to the religious right at the elections in two weeks…and have less clout in the USA than it has ever done before.

  5. confessions@53


    Happy New Year all.

    William:

    If you want help with moderation, joe6pak, Bushfire Bill and fiona would be wonderful. They ran a great ship while PB was shut down and would make your job easier in your absence here.

    You are revealing your previously undisclosed sense of irony.

  6. Happy New Year Bludgers, trust you all had a good break and managed to avoid the fires. Best to Tassie – thinking of you.

  7. Kevin

    That’s exactly what I’m using. I’ve no idea why the “www” doesnt allow access. All I can suggest is delete that from the address bar and see what happens.

    The bitly links are set to the non-www address so there shouldn’t be a problem on that score.

    I’ll have to get back to you on that one.

  9. Dan Gulberry@57


    Kevin

    That’s exactly what I’m using. I’ve no idea why the “www” doesnt allow access. All I can suggest is delete that from the address bar and see what happens.

    Yes if I manually delete it it works fine.

    To clarify, in #35 you give two links, one to the site and one to the Credlin post. The link to the Credlin post works fine for me, it is only the first one that does not work unless I delete the www.

  11. I’m not sure how the www is getting in there in the first place. It doesn’t do that for me, and no-one else has mentioned that problem.

    As i said, I’ll have to check into it and get back to you.

  13. Dan Gulberry@61

    As i said, I’ll have to check into it and get back to you.

    No need to get back to me since I know what it is and can avoid it. Just thought you should know in case you are missing hits from others.

  15. Gecko@56


    Happy New Year Bludgers, trust you all had a good break and managed to avoid the fires. Best to Tassie – thinking of you.

    My concern is that what has happened down here in the last few days may turn out to be minor compared to events elsewhere in the country in the coming week as the heatwave continues.

    Bushfires are scary and spectacular but heat often kills a lot more people without getting anything like the media attention.

    That’s not to say what is going on here is by any stretch minor, but there is some exaggeration going on with the reporting of up to 100 missing. Those are just the people the authorities don’t have confirmed contacts with, many of whom probably aren’t even aware attempts to contact them are being made. There is just no way a fire that destroys “only” c.100 houses is going to claim anything near 100 lives. Nor is there any kind of feeling on social media to support that anywhere near that many people are feared missing by loved ones etc. But police do have more serious concerns about a “handful” of people who are missing.

    The inconvenience to the communities of the two peninsulas is vast and the fire is probably going to keep going down there for quite a while in the absence of rain.

  17. Hello Bludgers One & All. HNY. I have done some homework over the break and have started a wee blog. Modestly, I invite you to have a look, though it is not yet decorated and has no furnishings to speak of.

    Today I offer the furphy, “The Entrails of A Goat” for your pleasure:

    http://furphycrat.com/

  20. Welcome back, William.

    Please do not take the advice of confessions and allow people like BB etc to act as moderators. It was appalling.

    The site resembled a mutual admiration society – no serious discussion of important issues, just the usual bagging of people who may have wanted to contribute.

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers!
    Never mind the quality – feel the width!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/1m-claim-for-defects-at-world-square-site-20130106-2cb67.html
    Obeid’s tentacles seem to be everywhere.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/obeid-link-to-tigers-under-the-spotlight-20130106-2cb6k.html
    Apple still in strife with its Map app.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/apple-map-directions-on-the-road-to-nowhere-20130106-2cb68.html
    Alan Moir reckons the festive season is over.

    I tell you what! Fairfax websites are really skinny after all the cuts.

    Another Labor government fail, eh Joe?
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/money/food-prices-in-australia-go-down-across-the-board/story-e6fredkc-1226548530083
    And Mesma and Tone, how about some disparaging statements on this.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/australia-heads-un-sanctions-strategy-with-action-on-iran-taliban/story-fn59nm2j-1226548582671
    Looks like the Lib orchestra is warming up!
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/health/tony-abbott-backed-pynes-during-ivf-trauma/story-fn59nokw-1226548580723

  22. And from the Land of the Free –

    A good section on Climate Change.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/06/climate-change-wont-wait-its-a-fight-between-human-beings-and-physics-the-less-you-do-the-worse-it-gets/
    A good cartoon about FoxNews.

    Stand by for the neocon meltdown as Chuck Hagel’s nomination for Secretary of Defense progresses.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/michael-moore-my-friendly-offer-bill-krist
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/06/chuck-hagel-defense-secretary_n_2420582.html
    And some more meltdown material here on gun control.
    http://crooksandliars.com/nicole-belle/obama-administration-floats-gun-safet
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/05/1176636/-White-House-developing-comprehensive-gun-violence-proposals
    Ouch! This puts the underlying US budget dynamics into sharp perspective.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/06/1176226/-You-want-to-compare-the-U-S-budget-to-a-family-budget-Let-s-be-real-about-it
    And to think Wallmart is put on such a pedestal in the US.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/02/1175706/-Walmart-s-CEO-says-we-will-not-buy-from-an-unsafe-factory-Walmart-s-CEO-lies
    Some interesting FoxNews stats.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/101790246

  23. Just went to the previous thread by mistake, it was the e-version of going into a big room with echoes of a few lost souls calling out ” any one home?”

  24. Felicitations for the New Year

    Thinking about the lie in the Credlin-uses-Abbott’s-fridge article: “abortion as an ‘easy way out’ (he didn’t actually say that, as it turns out)”.

    On that very phrase, Gillard in her speech (THAT speech) said at 2:57:
    [You said that in March 2004; I suggest you check the records]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihd7ofrwQX0

    This suggests to me that whoever wrote that bit of the article:
    – did not hear Gillard’s speech;
    – did not do adequate background research, despite the implication of “as it turns out”; or
    – is a brazen liar.

    I know which option my money is on.

  25. Good morning everyone.. hope all survived the Christmas NY break.

    Head down bottoms up, we have a crusade to attend to.

  26. Happy New Year William, Happy New Year Bludgerians.
    2013 an election year, time to get the gloves off!
    Time to put the lying Fiberal shrills in their place (Sam Maiden, I’m looking at you)
    Time to make a stand

  27. Morning All

    Happy New Year to William and those who didn’t visit the temporary hangout which was greatly appreciated.

    Cograts to us on the committee job with the UN – wheat for weapons must be forgotten. Although maybe an apology before we take on the role is called for 🙂

    Peta’s participation seems to have fallen pretty flat which is good to see – I’m hoping that 2013 will be a year all about policy and not personality both politically and here on PB. I know that’s not what Tony wants though so it won’t be easy.

    Anyways, great to be back

  29. Good morning all and happy new year, especially to William, whose absence reminded us how much we rely on him for a reality based view of psephological matters. William I hope you had a good break and 2013 is good to you. PB won’t be getting any less active, I dare say.

    BK thanks for the links. The ongoing Obeid’s saga explains why Labor’s vote has recovered in Victoria but not NSW. Perhaps it could be laughed off with another Craig Emmerson hit, “Obeid Gangland Style”?

    I also noticed the Credlin article and it’s clumsy attempt to remake Tony Abbotts image to female voters. Presumably internal liberal party polling is also telling them they still have a major problem here. In fact, I think the strategy could be counterproductive. The more Abbott uses various female figures, including his own wife and daughters, to soften his image, the more it proves he just regards women as pawns. Gillard should always ask Abbott for responses on gender issues out of his own mouth.

  30. Seweroo hasn’t lost his sense of humour.

    [Rupert Murdoch ‏@rupertmurdoch
    World growing greener with increased carbon. Thirty years of satellite evidence. Forests growing faster and thicker.]

  31. welcome back all

    great news re australia chairing a sanctions commitee at the UN. reported straight by ABC radio, with comment from Bob Carr. And no opposition response. I will be lodging a complaint- I want my ABC stories to start with, “the opposition says”

  33. Happy New Year all. May this be a year in which the earnest efforts of bludgers in their many fields of endeavour are rewarded with agreeable happenstance and more insight into their own strengths, scope for enlightenment and community with others.

    I found this article interesting:

    After Years in Solitary, an Austere Life as Uruguay’s President

    It’s hard not to gasp in admiration, and I’m known as a hard marker. Perhaps he and Jenny Macklin need to have a word … 😉

  34. Good morning everyone, happy New Year, quick one before I go and pick up a grandson off the plane, may 2013 be everything you could hope for, cumulating in a great win for the ALP towards the end of the year. By the Way even Peter VO is questioning TA, “Who is next the cleaner as long as female” Never mind I see from BK Oz link he now has Pyne batting for him, almost as good :devil:

  37. briefly@67


    Hello Bludgers One & All. HNY. I have done some homework over the break and have started a wee blog. Modestly, I invite you to have a look, though it is not yet decorated and has no furnishings to speak of.

    Today I offer the furphy, “The Entrails of A Goat” for your pleasure:

    http://furphycrat.com/

    Briefly

    I read your blog with relish, I do like your style.

  38. Laocoon@74


    Felicitations for the New Year

    Thinking about the lie in the Credlin-uses-Abbott’s-fridge article: “abortion as an ‘easy way out’ (he didn’t actually say that, as it turns out)”.

    On that very phrase, Gillard in her speech (THAT speech) said at 2:57:

    You said that in March 2004; I suggest you check the records


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihd7ofrwQX0

    This suggests to me that whoever wrote that bit of the article:
    – did not hear Gillard’s speech;
    – did not do adequate background research, despite the implication of “as it turns out”; or
    – is a brazen liar.

    I know which option my money is on.

    Or……… are desperately hoping that the public has forgotten it.

  39. Laocoon, twitted the author of the puff piece yesterday, stating that it was on his own website in a speech from March 2004, where he uses those exact words in regards to abortion. Didn’t get a reply though.

  40. Socrates@79


    Good morning all and happy new year, especially to William, whose absence reminded us how much we rely on him for a reality based view of psephological matters. William I hope you had a good break and 2013 is good to you. PB won’t be getting any less active, I dare say.

    BK thanks for the links. The ongoing Obeid’s saga explains why Labor’s vote has recovered in Victoria but not NSW. Perhaps it could be laughed off with another Craig Emmerson hit, “Obeid Gangland Style”?

    I also noticed the Credlin article and it’s clumsy attempt to remake Tony Abbotts image to female voters. Presumably internal liberal party polling is also telling them they still have a major problem here. In fact, I think the strategy could be counterproductive. The more Abbott uses various female figures, including his own wife and daughters, to soften his image, the more it proves he just regards women as pawns. Gillard should always ask Abbott for responses on gender issues out of his own mouth.

    Good morning Socrates.

    You certainly didn’t miss much elsewhere and it is good to see you posting again.

    I weep for the ALP in NSW and the decent people in it who get tainted by association with the corrupt elements in it. I say again, there needs to be prompt and thorough Federal intervention to clean up the NSW branch top to bottom if the ALP is going to have any serious chance in NSW at the Federal Election.

    For too long the electoral success of the NSW ALP served as a shield to protect it from a much needed cleaning out of corrupt elements. Now that electoral success is gone, they stand naked. Strike now.

  43. Happy New Year!

    Who would have thought that the next ‘woman’ to barrack for ‘I’m Just a Big Girly Softy’ Tony would be….Chrissie Pyne. What a hoot! Somehow I don’t think Pyne’s announcement about Tony’s ‘support’ for Mr and Mrs Pyne during their struggle to reproduce will have the desired effect. It just gave me a fit of the giggles to imagine Tony and Chris discussing IVF side effects over a ‘supportive’ coffee in Tony’s office.

    Why stop now boys? Why not let your feminine side run rampant? What about writing a few articles for Mamamia. Something like ‘Choosing tampons for your wife and daughters’ or maybe ‘What to say when your daughter calls you a lame, gay, churchy loser’ from Tony. And from Chrissie why not ‘How I tamed my frizzy hair with mashed avocado’ or maybe ‘Breastfeeding twins, the agony and the ecstacy.’

  44. Happy New Year everyone.
    [Good morning all and welcome back. Time to put the Little Elf out to pasture until next Christmas.]
    That’s a strange name for it David!

  45. From BK’s Dawn Patrol links “Tony Abbott backed Pyne during IVF trauma”. I look forward with gleeful expectation to seeing how far they will go to convince people that Mr Wall Puncher is actually Mr SNAG.

  48. poroti @ 95
    I am left wondering what George Pell is thinking about all the reports of the stances Abbott supposedly adopts on birth control, abortion and IVF. The tensions must be building up and should at some point explode in a denunciation of the libertarian Abbott by Pell, the guardian of the faith.

    Or is it all a put up job with a wink and a nod from George?

Comments Page 2 of 13
1 2 3 … 13

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *