A Westpoll survey of 400 respondents in The West Australian today corroborates the bad news for Labor in this week’s Newspoll, showing the Liberal-National government leading 59-41 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 50% for the Liberals, 5% for the Nationals, 30% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Colin Barnett leads Mark McGowan 51-35 as preferred premier. GhostWhoVotes has full tables, including responses on most important issue. The sample size being what it is, the margin of error on the poll is about 5%.
Whilst the Liberals are obviously favoured to win the coming election, anyone who thinks the 2pp margin will be anything like 59-41 is kidding themselves.
Barnett and his cronies aren’t that popular.
True Fulvio, the election result is unlikely to be this great a margin. But I still think the Liberals will hold a lower house majority in their own right.
People here spent two years saying about the NSW and Qld elections: “It won’t be as bad as these polls suggest.” But it was, in both cases. Why should WA be different?
If only the punters knew of the huge debt the LNP are clocking up , was about $3 Billion in 2007 , now heading past $23 Billion in a boom state ???? When will they learn that the Fiberals are no good with money.
Psephos, my instinct is that Labor will have a much more amenable campaign environment in WA than they did in NSW or Queensland, and that they should indeed be able to claw a bit back. The campaign will not be about the record of a tired old Labor government, as it was in the other states. McGowan is a presentable leader with good personal ratings and he’ll get substantial publicity in the campaign period for the first time. The media here would like there to be a contest, and should give Labor a pretty good run for the first time in recent memory. Winning is out of the question, but my guess is that it won’t quite be the bloodbath suggested by the latest polls.
P@3
You know full well that NSW and Qld had old and tired Labor governments, well beyond their use-by date.
The electorate and the pollies knew when it was time.
The current Liberal-National set up in WA came it due largely to the stupidity of Carpenter (inexperience) and a poor, very poor election campaign.
The Liberals thought they were ‘gone’ too, as Barnett was on the verge of retirement – so much I suppose for ‘conventional wisdom’.
This time around, and you are well-informed in Labor circles, it is a matter of where seats are and who holds them.
The West had it about right two weeks ago concentrating on 10 marginal seats – 6 held by Labor and 4 by the Liberals/conservatives.
The state of play in my view is that despite the poll (based on 400 people for goodness sake) is that Labor stands to win back Morely and Freo with an outside chance in Mt Lawley. So, on the surface of it, and Labor can hold what it already has, that takes them to near to 28 seats.
However, the reality is there are some country seats held by Labor in peril and, if the swing is uniform, then of course if it is anything beyond 3% then those 6 marginals mentioned above could well go into the Liberal ledger.
Those of us who would like to see a Labor victory sense it is not this time around. The current government is not old enough and tired enough to be thrown out and as yet, Labor just can’t offer enough to make the change a possibility.
It is likely, my guess that the Liberals will win quite well, and, if they can nullify Grylls so much the better.
I think the story for Labor is for the next cycle in 2017.
There are no surprises in store.
Interestingly the media is not giving Barnett an easy ride.
P@3
Our esteemed moderator has either echoed my thoughts or I his.
One major difference between NSW Qld and WA is that here it is the government that leads in the polls. The last thing Colin Barnett needs is the perception he is a shoo in. I expect him to claim underdog status any day now. People in other states might not be aware that Labor has more seats in the Parliament already and there are lot of marginal liberal seats which would go Labor at the slightest hint of a “protest” vote. They dont call Barnett the emperor for nothing, he is not universally liked. In may ways he reminds me of old style Tories like Bolte and Court who set on their path, stared down their criticvs and said see you on polling day. Major difference is that he is not nearly as clever The idea that the Libs can govern in their own right is a bit fanciful
Tricot beat me to it and explained it so much better
We are of the one mind rossmcg.
As you say, Barnett hates the nickname “The Emperor” and the last thing he wants is to be seen as some high-handed leader as he knows this might cost.
Whether we would get a Kennett outcome is another matter. I think not at this stage.
I hate to admit this, but I have met and been in the company of Barnett a couple of times, and he comes across as a man with some kind of reasonableness and common sense.
That does not mean I agree at all with many of his policies, but the hard facts are that Joe Public is in a gripe mood but not so much they are heaping on the Liberals – yet.
My hope is, in fact, the Liberals do have a majority in their own right as the National’s blatant pork barrel in the Royalties for Regions gig is an absolute scam.
What really peed me off was when the debate on extended trading hours was going full tilt, Grylls said he did not support such a policy in the Perth metro area and killed it stone dead – while allowing extended hours in some country areas.
Talk about the tail wagging the dog. I don’t think the Liberals are all that happy with the arrangement and the fact that Grylls was prepared to get into bed with Labor at the time about sums up the harlot nature of the rural socialists.
They benefited for years from the gerrymander which Labor fixed but this has served to tighten their vote – as it does in the Eastern States.
Now, as the Liberals stuggle to gain an outright majority, they are up against a National outfit ready to squeeze the Liberals for all they are worth.
[Winning is out of the question, but my guess is that it won’t quite be the bloodbath suggested by the latest polls.]
I suspect and dearly hope you are right.
Listening to Buswell on the news the other evening, saying
among other things,
“It is absolutely not true for Labor to suggest that any changes to the status of the Tier Three rail line will have any impact on truck movements through the metropolitan area, because CBH have told us that it won’t.”
I wondered what he’d been sniffing lately!
[Listening to Buswell ]
I think the more people have to listen to Buswell the bigger Labors chance of saving seats. The finance record isn’t all that great, putting up all possible fees and charges, putting money away for the future but failing the present badly.
There is no need for the public transport to be inadequate during a boom. It is a just a lib fail.
In the Eastern corridor the libs have just neglected it. In opposition the complained that Labor should duplicate the Reid Highway between Beechboro and West Swan Rd, in government they’ve just this last week or so put up a sign saying they will install traffic lights at the Reid / Lord intersection.
then there is the Ellenbrook train promise, the lies about the promise, the reneging on the promise and the laughable promise about ‘fast bus’ maybe next time we wouldn’t lie to you again would we? How is a bus going to get from Ellenbrook to Bassendean, or anywhere else for that matter ‘fast’ when the traffic conditions are going to be woefully slow. Unless they are gonna do a dedicated no stop lane North and South of Reid and grade separation at Reid the fast bus might be a couple of minutes faster than the current inadequate bus service but it isn’t going to be ‘fast’.
Barnett and Libs have been a lot like Howard, liars and very very poor economic managers wasting the boom.
I think describing NSW labor 2007-2011 as old and tired is a little euphemistic
Shellbell @ 14,
Fair enough. Would you be happy with putrid?
[I think describing NSW labor 2007-2011 as old and tired is a little euphemistic]
Compared to the clowns that have followed them they look fresh and effective.
[ “It is absolutely not true for Labor to suggest that any changes to the status of the Tier Three rail line will have any impact on truck movements through the metropolitan area, because CBH have told us that it won’t.” ]
Through the metro area? That won’t be where the effect is (and I hope no muppet from Labor has suggested otherwise). The main thing about the tier 3 closure that annoys so many people in the wheatbelt is the increased truck traffic through little towns, which don’t have freight highways or bypasses – they all rumble through the middle of town.
Example: wheat coming in from Quairading goes via Northam, and that wheat will end up on a train into the city so it doesn’t change the truck/train balance anywhere near Perth. It’s the 100 km Quairading-York-Northam route that’s affected. One train gets replaced by 50 trucks, so the roads have increased wear and tear that has to be paid for mostly by the York and Quairading shires. (The Great Southern Hwy is state funded, that’s what those blue “Route 120” signs mean – that’s the only exception.) The maintenance costs of the wheat transport route would be largely transferred from state to local government… you can imagine how that goes down in the affected areas. It’s past the point of just annoying farmers, it’s annoying people in towns as well.
So, I reckon Max Trenorden has an OK chance at getting a seat in Agricultural Region if he works at it. 8-10% vote taken about equally from Nats and Libs, with bits from Labor and the god-botherers, would see him in pretty easily. It’ll be interesting to watch, one of those under-the-radar stories Perth media don’t bother to report.
BoP wrote: “(and I hope no muppet from Labor has suggested otherwise)”
Candidate Ian Radisich in The Echo was recently quoted as: “The increased truck traffic will have a significant impact on already congested metropolitan roads including Great Eastern Highway and Roe Highway”
*headdesk*