The News Limited tabloids bring a Galaxy poll, conducted between Tuesday to Thursday from 1000 respondents, which has the Coalition’s leading 55-45 from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. On the question of the Labor leadership, 32% believed the party should stick with Julia Gillard, 26% believed she should be replaced with Kevin Rudd, and 33% opted for “a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet”. Worryingly for the goverment, 59% nominated that the Coalition “would be ready” to govern against 36% who thought otherwise.
UPDATE (11/3): Essential Research provides further evidence that Labor’s slump has bottomed out and perhaps even reversed slightly. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 34% with both the Coalition and the Greens down a point, to 48% and 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead back to 55-45 after two weeks at 56-44. Monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard essentially unchanged after copping a hit last month, her approval steady at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 37% and down two to 51%. Abbott has pulled level on preferred prime minister, which is at 39-39, after trailing 39-37 last time.
Essential has also performed one of its occasional experiments where it divides its sample in two and asks each differently worded questions, in this case relating to immigration. The money finding here is that 38% deem boat arrivals most important from a list of issues against 20% who nominate 457 visa, but this changes to 33% and 31% if the numbers involved (15,000 boat arrivals and 150,000 457 visas) are provided. Further questions find 22% broadly in favour of privatisation and 58% broadly against, with respondents also given a list of services and asked which should be run by the government and which privately. The evenly divided “Telecommunications (including broadband services)” was the only one for which being run by the government wasn’t heavily favoured.
An example of younger people’s values. Please Like Me by Josh Thomas has apparently been doing well in the ratings.
Also there are now programs like Modern Family to the point it has entered the language lexicon.
PMJG is seen as a hypocrite on marriage equality given her choices. This is fact like it or not.
This is why marriage equality has become totemic to people of PMJG’s personal progressiveness. Voting no to marriage equality is costing PMJG dearly and Labor along with it.
This is why most voting yes does not count. PMJG is seen as a roadblock not a solution on this issue.
Socrates
[Just quickly, in my time as a Labor party member, most of my friends, I.e. about 1/3 of the members of branches I was in, had zero interest in unions. They were academics and professionals, and no union did anything for hem in their work conditions. So the progressive, social democrat and moderate policies were the reasons they voted Labor, in spite of the union links. Most, like me, have since left the party. Labor is throwing their votes away. Professionals in Australia now easily outnumber manufacturing workers. Yet Labor massively over-focuses on the latter, then wonders why it’s voter base is shrinking. Must go.]
This is just nonsense. Anybody with no interest in Unions has no place in Labor… Unionism is fundamental to democracy and to Labor. To infer that the labour movement is somehow disconnected with progressive ideals is to admit to no understanding at all.
…. ole Soc, he’s one smart shit-kicker, beratin’ others about spurious double negs. Too clever Socrates, with your nice vindictiveness
[actuly to be honest i dont read bowes gloom and doom]
my sy, there aint no doom & gloom here – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/
vindictiveness’, even………
Guytaur
[This is why most voting yes does not count. PMJG is seen as a roadblock not a solution on this issue.]
More of a roadblock than Abbott? Is he not the alternative destination of lost Labor votes to which you elude? Somehow I don’t think so.
[Gecko
Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 8:40 am | Permalink
Socrates
…
This is just nonsense. Anybody with no interest in Unions has no place in Labor… Unionism is fundamental to democracy and to Labor. To infer that the labour movement is somehow disconnected with progressive ideals is to admit to no understanding at all.]
Onjoy being in opposition.
Gecko
Abbott has the advantage of not being seen as a hypocrite on the issue.
People believe PMJG has caved on her beliefs to appease factions to stay in power.
Abbott does not suffer this judgement because people know he is retrograde so no hypocrisy.
Amazing perception given the hypocrisy of the man, but this is the pubic voting against PMJG for being a roadblock at a time of hope.
gloryconsequence
opinion polls are not reality
gullibility of the media is the only thing which is saving the coalition
glory
you are the most negative person on the blogg besides
bemused
you always pop up on poll days
bob read the wikki link to galaxy
it tells you all you want to know
as i have ask mr bowe to list the polling companies
and their links to other other companies
but i am ways met with total silence
i have been asking the same qustion for 4 years
i will keep persisting
one would think he would have this at his finger tips
as he is a professor
http://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-gets-in-touch-with-her-feminine-side-20130308-2fr2h.html
Don’t know if this has been linked have tweeted SMH congratulating them plus the story on Hadley. Got to give them a bit of encouragement 😉
Insiders talking up influence of Federal Labor on WA vote.
This immediately following the sentence of WA Voters not wanting to throw out a first term government. No mention of minority government becoming majority government.
Acknowledged the campaign by McGowan was good.
I see there is more talk of a Rudd takeover.
I hope Gillard is PM until the election, or if she stands down for Rudd, Rudd says no lol.
“@kimmaree_tweet: my goodness I agree with something he said “if Federal Labor is such a big issue, why isn’t Victoria Liberals doing better” #insiders”
“@InsidersABC: Up next on #Insiders – drama on #springst this week”
Interesting, when a little pressure comes on the doubt comes out. We knew Labor was never going to win in WA. We knew, but like any half decent optimist, we smilingly hoped for an embarrasment for the LNP. ….Oh well!…back on with the fight.
As for the carping LNP. supporters, one of those old Popes said it best..: “A pentinent praises and prays longer and harder to God the longer and harder is he on his knees!”…your average LNP. supporter LIVES on his knees, his face gazing to the heavens, mouth agape waiting for the promised “trickle-down” effect…..and they really give it to him!
457 is a new outsourcing in disguise. Comp entered into a Partnership with OS Comp. Then OSC brings in 457 with much less pay eg IT, i know
….. har ….. ev’ry other odd day, rummel finds the energy to jump over here and cartwheel or springstand, then fall over for the ruddiots ….. marvelousments !
“@ABCnewsIntern: Gerard Henderson is looking at something “objectively” and, surprisingly, seeing exactly what he wants to see. #Insiders”
Mysay If you want to see who is tied up with polling companies you can find the info through googling it. It’s all there
But the strongest response to the defeat came from Ms MacTiernan, a former WA Labor infrastructure minister, who called on the federal party to dump Ms Gillard.
“There’s no doubt that the voters in WA do not see Julia Gillard as a leader … and it’s the Labor people telling you this.” Ms MacTiernan said she believed Ms Gillard was a decent person but it was time for her party to face the truth.
“I don’t want to be horrible … (but) you can’t be a leader when people don’t want you as their
leader.
“It may be very unfair.”
Asked directly if she believed the ALP must replace Ms Gillard as leader, Ms MacTiernan replied: “Absolutely, I’m sorry it is very clear”.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/elections/colin-barnett-heading-for-second-term-in-western-australia-amid-strong-swings-to-libs/story-fnhk4aej-1226593945763
look folks nothing changed in wa
so dont feel sad, about the result,
just had an email from a freind who has children
in wa
the big money took them there, he tells me they are over
mortagaed to the hilt,
think places like us on the east coast are dumb people
the west is the best and
we live off them, and libs will alwasy look after them
sorry to offend any labor voter from wa,
but itis my friend telling what he hears from his family
he says they have changed that their values are totally different now
they donnt care about the enviroment he tells me
so that would explain the opp, leaders comments over there
pandering to the people in his area.
they will never move back here he told me as they think
we dont here even deserve a crust of bread from the taxes gathered in wa
needless to say this poor freind of our family he is just about estranged from his children as he says the values are not there.
there is of course a person story of some one I know
doesnt mean its every one
but it bought tears to my eyes
they take holidays everywhere in the world, and think nothing of owing a a few homes
but on the other hand are terrifed the int. rates will go up
so nothing has changed in wa
dont expect it to till they run out of dirt inthe hills
and that willnot be in our life time
sadly i refuse to visit the place from the stuff my friend tells me.
now want go to qld either, what the hell will i do when libs come here
macquare is. awaits me
becauce here
the greens are NOW seen as the ones who are slowing down our growth, so the people think they must vote lib to get rid of the greens.
labor should of last time let hodgeman have them but
he didnt want them
so i am expecting it but lara is doing a wonderful
job caring about the ordinary people
i am hoping it want be as bad as predicted
“@tim_chr: “We’ve picked Denis for Premier.” / “Shit. Is this real?” / “Yes.” #insiders”
Big Ted’s ego (as far as I can tell) is no where near the size of Lu KeWen’s
Now Brendan O Connor.
457 time
Meguire Bob
Opinion Polls in isolation are useless. Opinion Polls in a trend are not useless and do reflect reality.
A 32 primary vote with 6 months to go cannot be ignored. I’m not preaching Ruddstoration, I’m not ‘secretly in the Abbott camp’. I am a realist.
To simply ignore polls, therefore, is ignoring reality.
If polls were irrelevant, we wouldn’t discuss them, and the parties themselves wouldn’t respond to them.
rummell
you read my tale of the west
i doubt plumbers will make the big money needed
to survive under tony abbott
but you dream on,, , imagine what ever you imagine
life will be
‘you would of been in short pants when howard was in
you have no idea’ young man
what would a wait you
lets hope you dont get unemployed as you are under 50
tone will send you to the salt mines.
i am not joking read his policy on the DOLE
people
dole as in boring NO dole as in your an out of work so your scum
thats the liberal way rummell
but no one can get through to you
of course you will laugh when you read this”’
and say like a teenager
‘ what ever’
“@kimmaree_tweet: @daveyk317 luckily even pensioners are complaining the media are the PR arm of the Lib’s, so major consequence is loss of media credability”
Mysay
I’m looking forward to a fed liberal government and years of labor blood letting.
as in saying scum
i dont mean you personally of course
o mean PEOPLE WHO ARE UNEMPLOYED
that the way the mind works in liberal circlesl
i do know a couple of people unemployed at the moment
and of course they are NOT scum they are salt of the earth
and i am sure you are to,,, you have just never lived what we older people have.
give me a ring some time i dont mind i tell you about how we lost out house with int, 17 ‘percent
howard of course
my dh ( darling husband} came home one day and said i ve been covering the morg. by not paying all our bills but now is caught up with me, i cannot do that i have to pay the bills so the house goes.
that was 7pm in the evening,,, he had been doing his best as we just had a new baby boy,
i laid on the kitchen floor and cried to 4 am in the morning
every one else slept, i stil remember it like yesterday
we moved to our dream home 79. the int, at 7.5
percent, by 82 they where around 12. and climbing
we had a very small mort, and my dh earned good money
but here we are to day,, in my dream home again took 20 years to get here and so much hard work we lost that home
then , in the lib years,
get a job a sentator here said to me, no child care then
no stay at home payment no baby bonus,
no nothing
i still cry and get tearly and it was around 30 plus years ago,
then of course we had him off to national service becauce his birthday was on a certain date
so dont even mention the word liberal to me
O’Connor on Insiderscdoing a good job explaining changes to 457s.
O’Connor not doing himself any favours on Insiders….I guess one has to eat the xxxx sandwich handed to you from the genius PM!!!
Morning all.
Brendon O’Connor doing well on Insiders.
And how wonderful to wake up to the gorgeous Andrew Probyn! :kiss:
Just listening to Brendan O Connor on Insiders.
Finally, the real issue starts to get a mention.
Approx 127,000 457 visas in the last few years.
Jobs growth from the ABS Labour force figures is approximately 125,000 per year.
It appears our entire economy is being run for the benefit of immigrants
If the ALP keep this up, I’m going to vote for them
do i hate them as more than any one here
relate your story under liberals
it helps to hear
then there was my cousins son who went to IRaq
and will never be the same again,
dont lest us for get them either
did you all read the report here yesterday of the
the money it cost
for finding NO weappons of mass desturction
[It appears our entire economy is being run for the benefit of immigrants]
…or are the immigrants growing the economy for the rest of us?
“@kimmaree_tweet: Minister naming media as “hysterical” on 457’s for amplifying the Lib’s PR narrative rather than reporting both sides of debate #insiders”
Mr S:
Yes, at last someone from the govt is pointing out the Liberals wanting to hide behind 457s in order to avoid talking about IR.
“@LizzieA01: #insiders a huge number of 457’s are in trades. TAFEs are being decimated by state governments…”
Mod Lib@83
Hang on ML, there is nothing wrong with cracking down on 457’s. 457’s, iirc, were brought in as a measure to fill a certain shortage of a skill in a workplace, until people locally can be trained in those skills.
457’s should only be used where people locally do not have the skills required t
Excellent interview by O Connor
that should be 457’s should only be used where people locally do not have the skills required to fill any given position.
I have no problems with cracking down on 457 visas if there is a problem to crack down on.
This is clearly a cheap political trick, clearly evident by BOs strident tone and the support of Pauline Hanson.
If Howard had used the exact words Gillard used to discuss this you guys would be howling at the moon.
“@guytaur: Probyn. O Connor just made the case again. Media have to report its your job. #Insiders”
frednk@44
Never fear, frednk – Ruddstoration is bound to resume once the trilobites log back in. You can expect the usual “we’ll all be rooooned if we don’t change leader right now!” crap.
However, I am beginning to understand why this coming week is “it” as far Ruddstoration! is concerned.
The WA election result was fairly predictable, and Rudd no doubt has also had access to the polling that shows his popularity as an alternative is beginning to wane. Mostly, I suspect, out of sheer “Rudd fatigue” on the part of the electorate.
If he can’t convince a substantial number of caucus votes to switch in the next few days, then his entire strategy is now dead in the water. And what kind of moronic caucus member would agree to switch back to a leader who is now less popular than Gillard?
Personally, I think we can call Ruddstoration! as over right now. However, since I was informed it will happen this week, I am still prepared to wait and see. Rudd is nothing if not driven, so there will no doubt be a twist or two in this tale yet to play out before the end of the week.
But of course, the trilobites will disagree.
Sorry Leonore, the only people being disingenuous, are you lot in the Media.
Just saw and heard Brendan O’connor on Insiders.
Now, if the ALP could just find a few more like him and wheel them out as often as possible. That would be good.
@TheKouk: Henderson has still not put out a correction on his factual errors from last year http://t.co/SAqnpoOiR7 #insiders
[“@guytaur: Probyn. O Connor just made the case again. Media have to report its your job. #Insiders”]
They’ve just heard the minister, and yet they STILL persist with their inaccurate commentary.