BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Coalition

The Poll Bludger’s federal poll aggregate has recorded little change since the previous result a week ago. Also featured: preselection argybargy, changes to electoral legislation, a new Chief Minister for the Northern Territory, and a by-election result.

In recognition of the quickening tempo as the federal election draws nearer (let’s continue to presume it will indeed be on September 14), my mid-week update to the BludgerTrack 2013 poll aggregate will henceforth get its own thread. This means that in the normal course of things there will be three more-or-less evenly spaced federal politics post a week: one hanging off the main poll release on Sunday or Monday, the regular “Seat of the Week” on Friday or Saturday, and the BludgerTrack update in between.

The latest update throws the latest results from Nielsen and Essential Research into the mix, producing little change after the slight recovery for Labor last week. However, the state relativities have changed slightly with the addition of data from Nielsen, one of only two pollsters which provides state breakdowns with any consistency. The swing recorded for New South Wales is now higher than for Victoria, as most commentary suggests it should be. As noted in the previous post, the weekly Morgan result is being excluded from the calculation for the time being until there is enough data from its new “multi-mode” methodology to allow for a credible bias measure to be determined with reference to the overall polling trend.

Other news:

• Four nominees have emerged for the Labor preselection in the Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated upon the retirement of former Attorney-General Robert McClelland. They do not include former NSW Premier Morris Iemma, who may have had his factional association with Eddie Obeid to consider, together with the extreme difficulty any Labor candidate will face defending the seat. Paul Osborne of The Australian reports the contest is effectively between Shane O’Brien, Rockdale mayor and NSW Public Service Association assisant secretary; Kirsten Andrews, “former state and federal ministerial adviser”; and Steve McMahon, former Hurstville mayor who “made a name for himself when he sold the mayoral car to build a children’s playground”. O’Brien is “widely seen as the frontrunner”; Another nominee, state upper house MP and former Rockdale mayor Shaoquett Moselmane, withdrew his nomination after two days, choosing instead to make headlines with a parliamentary attack on Israel. Murray Trembath of the St George & Sutherland Shire Leader earlier reported that Moselmane’s run was thought to be “a lever to seek a more secure position on Labor’s upper house ticket for the next election”. The Liberals have endorsed Nick Varvaris, accountant and mayor of Kogarah.

• A day after the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from Eddie Obeid as he sought to enter parliament in 1999, independent state MP Richard Torbay has dropped a bombshell by announcing his withdrawal as Nationals candidate for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England. The Nationals’ state chairman, Niall Blair, confirmed Torbay was asked to stand aside after the party received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. Barnaby Joyce has expressed interest in the past in using the seat for a long-desired move to the lower house, and there were immediate suggestions he might take Torbay’s place.

Troy Bramston of The Australian reports Tim Watts, Telstra executive and former adviser to Communications Minister Stephen Conroy and former Victorian Premier John Brumby, is the front-runner to succeed Nicola Roxon as Labor candidate for the safe western Melbourne seat of Gellibrand.

• With John Forrest bowing out at as member at the next election, the Nationals preselection for Mallee has attracted 10 candidates. Those named in an ABC report are Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, Buloke Shire mayor Reid Mather and Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank. Liberal party sources quoted by Terry Sim of the Weekly Times said the Liberals were “unlikely to field a candidate”. Labor has endorsed Lydia Senior, chief executive of the Lower Murray Medicare Local.

Megan Gorrey of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Laurie Ferguson effortlessly saw off a preselection challenge from Damian Ogden, by a margin of 132 to 11.

• Legislation which completed its passage through federal parliament earlier in the month has raised the bar for prospective election candidates by increasing nomination deposits (from $500 to $1000 for the House of Representatives and $1000 to $2000 for the Senate) and requiring of independent candidates more supporting signatures on nomination forms.

Top End corner:

• The Northern Territory had a change of Chief Minister last week, with Adam Giles emerging as the first indigenous leader of an Australian government. Terry Mills, whom Giles ousted as leader just seven months after he led the Country Liberal Party to victory at the polls, was informed of his ill fortune by text message while on government business in Japan.

The present leadership crisis began a fortnight ago when deputy leader Robyn Lambley stood aside for Giles with a view to healing a long-standing rift, only for Giles to up the ante by indicating he would move to replace Mills as leader unless further conditions were met. In this he had hoped for support from Alison Anderson, the most senior of the CLP’s complement of indigenous MPs, but she instead publicly blasted Giles for refusal to accept the deputy leadership and threatened to take her “bush coalition” of four MPs (the cohesiveness of which is disputed) to the cross-benches or even into coalition with Labor. The turmoil coincided with the period of a Newspoll survey for the Northern Territory News targeting 437 respondents in the CLP-held seats of Sanderson, Blain and Brennan, which showed a 22% against the CLP on the primary vote and 14% on two-party preferred. Mills’s personal ratings were at 26% approval and 67% disapproval, compared with 39% and 38% for Opposition Leader Delia Lawrie (whom Mills nonetheless led 38-37 as preferred Chief Minister).

The situation was transformed the following week when Anderson and the bush MPs were persuaded to put the previous week’s acrimony behind them and throw their support behind Giles, with Anderson telling Amos Aikman of The Australian the decision was made to forestall a rival challenger she declined to identify. The victory for the Giles camp was confirmed when his key supporter, Fong Lim MP and former federal Solomon MP David Tollner, was installed as deputy leader and Treasurer. Mills meanwhile is widely expected to head for the exit in fairly short order, promising to initiate a challenging by-election in his seat of Blain.

• All of which nicely leads into my belated results summary for last month’s Wanguri by-election, which delivered a bloody nose for the CLP and a morale-boosting result for Labor, which had suffered a 7.7% swing in the seat when Paul Henderson contested it as Chief Minister at the election on August 25.

WANGURI BY-ELECTION, NORTHERN TERRITORY
February 16, 2013

				Votes 	% 	Swing 	2PP 	%	Swing
Nicole Manison (ALP) 		2,428 	65.2% 	+8.2% 	2,585 	69.4%	+12.4%
Rhianna Harker (CLP)		1,059 	28.4% 	-14.6% 	1,139 	30.6%	-12.4%
Peter Rudge (Independent) 	237 	6.4% 			

Formal 				3,724 	96.4% 	-1.6% 		
Informal 			86 	3.6% 	+1.6% 		
Enrolment/Turnout 		4,984 	77.5% 	-11.6%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,394 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Coalition”

Comments Page 125 of 128
1 124 125 126 128
  1. I find it hilarious that Rudds failure to keep his caucus under control and onside is entirely his fault and Gillards failure to keep her caucus under control and appropriately onside is entirely the fault of a backbencher who is so disgusting a person no one could ever like him – yet still they do.

    After we get destroyed in Sept if not earlier I think my third candidate hopes will be realized.

  2. It’s pretty obvious that Bob Carr would’ve voted for Rudd if he was here and if their was a ballot.

    I trust the political instincts of a bloke who was Premier of NSW for 10 years more than the political instincts of Shorten, Conroy, and Swan who are just propping up their own careers.

  3. “@Colvinius: So many kind wishes – hundreds, too many to count. Thank you all. The new kidney’s a success so far as they can tell.”

  4. Mumble states that Gillard will not lead the party to the election.

    If it is not Rudd, as Rudd states, it will be a third party.

    Dear oh dear oh dear!

  5. So, the joyous news from the Fiberal trenches seems to be that instead of pointless SSO’s, we can look forward to pointless No Confidence Motions. How uplifting. 🙁

    Good to see Rudd finally made the statement he should have made 6 months ago. Interesting the ones that have pulled the plug and gone to the back bench. Marn, Crean, K Carr. You know, i’m not sure that people will miss them that much, and it really does rule a line under Rudd’s destabilisation.

    Anyway, killed off Election date speculation, Ruddstoration. What will the press pack talk about now?

  6. “@mpbowers: Barnaby calls Tony “Burkey” and is muttering “Oh Gosh” also opens the door to the Sinidinos question, score that round to Burkey #lateline”

  7. [Mumble states that Gillard will not lead the party to the election.

    If it is not Rudd, as Rudd states, it will be a third party.

    Dear oh dear oh dear!]

    If there is a change from Gillard then it will be Rudd for certain, otherwise a change risks more damage than the annihilation she will bring.

  8. TP:

    I am afraid any hope you had of Rudd returning was probably eradicated by Rudd saying that there were no circumstances in which he could return to the ALP leadership.

    If he did return now, he would be slaughtered by more than just his own side!

  9. [Anyway, killed off Election date speculation, Ruddstoration.]

    You would be naive to think that. It just reverts to what Rudd stated at first. He will not challenge or lead the part…unless of course they all come to him and ask….AND that will depend on Gillard’s polls.

    So Gillard and her camp no that a failure in the polls will bring Rudd back at the last.

  10. I like Albaricci, she does her research. I was very impressed with the breadth of her knowledge of media reform really impressed me (and I need to correct something, I called it the Leveson Inquiry, it is the Finklestein, mea culpa).

    WeWantPaul,

    No, culling a sitting leader is rarely a good idea. My criticisms of the actions recently by the Rudd camp could be applied to 2010, despite my support for Gillard since before then. The only exception was they were far more efficient at it, there was no leaking or undermining publically. Anyone is ultimately responsible for their own behaviour in my view, though, and I don’t think those blaming it on JG are really endearing anyone to them.

    Feeney,

    Mumble believes that the ALP is stupid enough to go through what happened yesterday. He may be right, but I hope they have the common sense to do their jobs now. The time to focus on themselves has well and truly passed. (That said, Mumble also said there would be no more 50-50 Newspolls, only to get another one a month later, followed by results almost identical to that for the next 2-3 months).

  11. Barnaby Joyce is not coherent. He is thought disordered, in that his thoughts do not logically connect to one another. That is usually a sign of psychosis, or intoxication, or disturbed mental processes. Just sayin…

  12. [If there is a change from Gillard then it will be Rudd for certain, otherwise a change risks more damage than the annihilation she will bring.]

    Now i have seen everything. He has been humiliated 3 times, yes 3 times, total utter humiliation and still looking for MOAR? What a joke

  13. [I am afraid any hope you had of Rudd returning was probably eradicated by Rudd saying that there were no circumstances in which he could return to the ALP leadership.

    If he did return now, he would be slaughtered by more than just his own side!]
    John Howard said a very similar thing once in the 1980s.

    It didn’t stop him becoming becoming party leader for 12 years

  14. TP, come on for the sake of Labor, can you just give us a few pointers of what the current leader and team can do to increase their chances of winning? We know you want Rudd, but the caucus and Rudd has said no, so how about some constructive feedback

  15. [Mr Rudd has done his dash. He will not return to leadership before the election. Get used to it.]
    So that means you are proposing that he may become leader after an election.

    Which means you accept that the statement he made today wasn’t actually definitive.

  16. [TP, come on for the sake of Labor, can you just give us a few pointers of what the current leader and team can do to increase their chances of winning?]
    Resign.

  17. [I am afraid any hope you had of Rudd returning was probably eradicated by Rudd saying that there were no circumstances in which he could return to the ALP leadership.]

    ML If Labor is 56 or 57/43 six weeks from an election and the clear majority of the party come to him and say…take over…or if Gillard gets tapped and they implore Rudd to take over that he wont?

    Basically the game hasn’t changed despite what Rudd has asserted…it just requires to Gillard to get worse and remain bad getting closer to an election.

    Sorry guys, you think maths doesn’t matter to a whole bunch of MPs who will lose their jobs…or to the clear prospect of a Abbott HOR and Senate.

    Reality bites, and will be biting very hard after the budget if Gillard is still failing to win over the public.

    Quite simple, and how reality works.

  18. Henry
    I think you’ll find the term in Obeid’s and McDonald’s case and also Thommo’s is ‘suspended’ membership. Like with maternity leave. Wonder if that terrible retribution has happended to one of the many others facing ICAC like Tony Kelly yet?

  19. Shows On

    The Howard example is touted because it is an exception to the rule. Even then the leadership fights kept Labor in power for years.

  20. [Reality bites, and will be biting very hard after the budget if Gillard is still failing to win over the public.]
    Gillard has about a month after the budget.

    The budget will be her last chance to shift the polls in any meaningful way.

    If the polls 4 weeks after the budget are 55/45s then she will be told to go.

    So I think that means mid-June or something.

  21. [TP, come on for the sake of Labor, can you just give us a few pointers of what the current leader and team can do to increase their chances of winning?]

    There are two things that are good for the sake of Labor (and Australian politics) and they are Labor get a thrashing at the election (but somehow Abbott doesn’t get the Senate) and the factional control gets damaged, the party moves back to the centre left, and the party rebuilds some integrity…and sundry right wing scum lose their control….OR Rudd comes back and squashes said factional power and pushes hard for reform.

    And…frankly they are the only two possible options anyway.

    Gillard has tried everything, and up against a LOTO whom they public don’t even like, and is still getting thrashed. Labor’s major problem IS maybe not so much Gillard…but there not being Rudd in the job. As changing to another person would make no difference.

  22. 6201
    WeWantPaul
    [I find it hilarious that Rudds failure to keep his caucus under control and onside is entirely his fault and Gillards failure to keep her caucus under control and appropriately onside is entirely the fault of a backbencher…]

    Ever so slightly different circumstances. One had a comfortable majority, one had a hung parliament.

  23. MARLES GOES…WHAT DOES THAT SAY RE CORIO
    ________________
    Marles had gone as Parl. Secretary over the Rudd affair
    I understand that he, like other Vic members in the provincial seats ,is worried about Corio

    A lack-lustre Right-wing “plant” in Corio last time…Marles may have got polling evidence in Geelong to suggest he has worries in what has always been a Labor seat since Gordon Scholes won it in a late 1960ies by-election in Whitlam’s early days as LOTO

    Scholes held on in the 1975 landslide by less than a hundred votes…but since 1940 Labor has held Corio …except for the Oppermann era after 1949

    Now the three Vic Labor regional seats…Corio/Bendigo/Ballarat must all be in doubt..given that the Melb marginals like Deakin and laTrobe.. and Geelong’s Corangamite and others… must be seen as gone…and safer seats like Macklin’s in Jaga Jaga…and even seats like Holt must be in peril

    Marles may have acted out a feeling of desperation

  24. Eric (i am the minister for roads, I don’t have to register my car) Roozendahl is suspended.
    Kelly is expelled
    I think John Maitland is still an active member – Albo will be appearing in his part of ICAC this week or next.

  25. [TP,
    So are you saying Rudd is lying?]

    Yeh…lying as he knows he would come back if Labor in dire straights and a clear majority requests it.

    Just like Gillard plotting for a whole year to stab Rudd…saying she had no intention to challenge for the job.

  26. [Gillard has about a month after the budget.]

    showy, you really have to try harder to get into my PM GORN’s Hall of Shame. You are too lite weight

  27. TP
    “(but somehow Abbott doesn’t get the Senate)”
    Please Universe, prevent this. The best defence is to vote Green in the Senate. That’s now the very most important thing.

  28. I suppose ij the Rudd crowd here are running around singing Tomorrow Tomorrow, Just You Wait and See, then Rudd and his backers are doing the same thing. Sigh.

  29. Labor’s major problem was Rudd and his destablisers.
    Now they are out of the picture the govt gets clear and can focus on policy; where they win every time.
    Then watch the polls slowly but surely rise.

  30. [John Howard said a very similar thing once in the 1980s.]

    😆

    In 10 year’s time Rudd will still be a force, having hung around in parliament for all that time?

    In 10 year’s time Rudd and his wife will be sipping cocktails in the company of Jamie Packer and Lachlan Murdoch, probably on a yacht moored off the south of France somewhere.

Comments Page 125 of 128
1 124 125 126 128

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *