The latest weekly BludgerTrack update has been added to the sidebar, adding results from Newspoll, Galaxy and Essential Research. I have replaced my ad hoc rolling average calculation with LOESS, the polling wonk’s smoothing method of choice. As well as making my graphs look prettier, this makes for smoother trendlines and should reduce volatility from one week to the next. I’ll be applying some further methodological tinkering next week, including updating the Newspoll bias measures to account for the Western Australian election result – on which more below.
First though, it should be noted that the Financial Review has published results from a JWS Research automated phone poll of 4070 respondents in 54 marginal seats, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday. This records an aggregate swing of Labor of 9.3%, compared with a quite bad enough result of 4.8% when the exercise was last conducted in mid-January. In the aftermath of last week’s leadership chaos, it may well be significant that the shift was heavily concentrated in Queensland.
Preselection news:
• A general meeting of the ACT Liberals has voted down a motion to overturn Senator Gary Humphries’ preselection defeat at the hands of former ACT Opposition Leader Zed Seselja by a margin of 168 to 138. There had been compaints from Humphries supporters that many party members had been wrongly excluded from the February preselection vote, which Seselja won 114 to 84.
• The plot has thickened in the preselection to choose a successor to Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand, with three credibly rated candidates in the field. Unidentified sources quoted by John Ferguson in The Australian suggest opposition to Tim Watts, Telstra executive and former staffer to Stephen Conroy, amounts to a test of Conroy’s influence, which is said to be “starting to wane”. Josh Gordon of The Age reports a 2008 factional realignment reserved the seat for the Shorten-Conroy Right sub-faction, but Roxon has entered the fray by sending a letter to local party members urging for them to support her former adviser Katie Hall. There is another prospective candidate in Kimberley Kitching, a former Melbourne councillor, current acting general manager tasked with restoring order to Health Services Union No. 1 branch, and wife of VexNews provocateur Andrew Landeryou. Gordon reports the Turkish community is emerging as a source of support for Kitching, as Conroy has roused its opposition by refusing to offer up the state seat of Footscray to the “so-called Turkish bloc”.
• The preselection to replace Richard Torbay as Nationals candidate for New England will be held in Tamworth on April 13. Barnaby Joyce will certainly be a starter, but there have been suggestions he will or should face opposition from Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie, including from Calare MP John Cobb.
• With the state election out of the way, WA Labor is now proceeding with federal election preselection processes, chief among which is determining its Senate election ticket and filling the casual vacancy caused by the retirement of Chris Evans. Suggestions Labor might be reduced to one Senate seat in Western Australia mean that more than prestige is at stake in ordering the top two positions on the election ticket. The two incumbents are Louise Pratt of the AMWU Left and Mark Bishop of the SDA Right, with the latter generally expected to be deposed by Joe Bullock, who succeeded him as the SDA’s state secretary. Other nominees are former state Bassendean MP Martin Whitely, a critic of party preselection processes generally and the Joe Bullock ascendancy in particular; Brett Treby, a Wanneroo councillor who ran for the state seat of Wanneroo; John Welch, secretary of the Western Australian Prison Officers’ Union; Kelly Shay, assistant state secretary of United Voice; and Sue Lines, assistant national secretary of United Voice.
• Sue Lines is getting more attention for her parallel nomination to succeed Chris Evans, a position claimed by the powerful United Voice sub-faction of the Left. Lines is rated as one of two-front runners along with Sharryn Jackson, who won the lower house seat of Hasluck in 2001 and 2007 and lost it in 2004 and 2010. The aforementioned Martin Whitely, John Welch and Kelly Shea have also nominated for the Evans vacancy, together with Linda Morich and Ashburton councillor Peter Foster. Both matters are scheduled to be determined at a state executive meeting on April 15.
Finally, a review of Newspoll’s performance at the WA election and some related musings on the two-party preferred measure. The scorecard for Newspoll reads thus:
2PP ALP L-NP GRN Result 57.5? 33.1 53.2 8.4 Newspoll 59.5 32 54 8 Difference +2.0? -1.1 +0.8 -0.4
This is a very sound result, with all primary votes well within the margin of error. However, it’s worth noting that it’s the eighth pre-election Newspoll out of the last nine to shoot low on the Labor primary vote, and the seventh to do so by more than a percentage point – remembering that in most cases two-party preferred ended up near the mark because support for the Greens had been overstated (although this hasn’t been evident on the two most recent occasions).
Keeping in mind that my two-party result is based on incomplete data, Newspoll’s two-party preferred result proved less accurate than the primary votes, which is largely down to an issue with two-party preferred calculations involving the Liberals and Nationals. Newspoll looks to have followed the usual method of simply combining the two and then distributing minor party preferences between the two major parties, but this doesn’t account for the fact that in three-cornered contests some Liberal and Nationals votes end up in the Labor pile when the contest is boiled down to Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals for two-party purposes. This is of little concern at federal elections, where competitive Nationals-versus-Liberal contests are uncommon. However, the WA election had no fewer than 17 three-cornered contests out of 59 seats, with both Liberal and Nationals polling strongly in most cases.
It should be noted that it makes a difference whether a Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals count is used, because Nationals voters are more likely to preference against their coalition partners than Liberal voters. This seems to be especially pronounced in those regional corners of the state where the Nationals have won a new constituency of former Labor voters who are still not keen on the Liberals. The precise result of the final two-party result will thus be influenced by the WAEC’s ruling on whether it conducts Labor-versus-Nationals or Labor-versus-Liberal counts in the eight seats where such counts remain to be published. In 2008 they went Labor-versus-Liberal in each case, which meant the Nationals were only used in seats where the final count had been between them and Labor (I believe this only applied to Pilbara, where only 7517 formal votes were cast, and that this will again be the case this time). The results were thus more favourable to Labor than they might have been if the WAEC had employed an alternative rationale, such as conducting Nationals-versus-Labor counts where the seat was won by the Nationals, as was the case in six of the eight seats with counts still outstanding.
Mod Lib takes a bow….”My mediocrity knows no bounds”.
Self deprecation or self evaluation?
Breaking news: Rupert Murdoch arrested for multiple violations of civil rights
Nah not really.
But should be.
ICCPR 1: right of self determination to start with – peoples NOT billionaire media oligarchs freely determine their development
Well now we know where ShowsOn has been all day.
[90 Year Olds Battle it Out
Play of the day: 90-year-olds sprint off]
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10874488
From the Andrew Elder blog I linked to aat 2348
This paragraph is why I think Labor people still have lots of hope despite the gloom and doom told to everyone and how its time to hand the keys of the lodge to Abbott.
[More broadly, the fact that the government’s policies are popular should give pause to fatalists who believe it is doomed. Doomed governments either have no policies to speak of, like the last Labor government in NSW, or have policies that are unpopular and from which there is no getting away, like the last Labor government in Queensland. Neither of those situations apply to the current federal government.]
Diogenes…Most “internal threats” are conjured fears.
I like Gibbon’s description of the fearful nation..wtte..: “A nation of slaves will view as magnanimous, the tyrant, who in withdrawing his hand from total brutality, will dispense cruelty in small, measured portions.”
Mod Lib
A government has a job to do. It is called Governing, it does things, in a dynamic nation things change quickly.
You are the one implying Abbott will do nothing, and if you look at his to do list (apart from the claw back) it appears he has no agenda.
When I talk of doing something, I mean doing something positive for the Country. Something the Liberal Party has difficulty counting its achievements on one hand.
Q: What did Howard Do?
A: Gun buyback
And….
Oh the GST.
The GST of course is the cause of our multispeed economy cos Costello had to have s decimal system so he could count.
Variable sales and consumption tax rates would be invaluable now as a policy tool. Dumb Costello Again.
Mod Lib @2260
Are you so shameless that you regard PPL as a coalition initiative. What breathtaking gall!
1) There is already a PPL scheme conceived, legislated and implemented by this Labor government.
2) Abbott: “there will be a PPL scheme over the dead body of this (JWH) government”
3) The scheme he has devised is widely ridiculed. It taxes Corporations extra to fund it. It is middle class welfare gone mad. It adds to the problems Carnegie referred to, not solve them.
You would have to have a hide as thick as Jessie the elephants to even mention Abbott’s PPL.
Mod Lib, you lack honesty. I can now see that your PB writings are a game. Try some genuine discussion on the matter. No honest person would claim to support Abbott and then be able to list but one (inappropriate) positive thing, yes one o-n-e only, he has to offer.
Give us a break!
@algore: Australia’s carbon tax is proving highly successful-but their reliance on coal exports presents a challenging paradox http://t.co/KO49k7rzYu
oh dear. GWS are in front of Sydney Swans
Bonus. Basically they just want anyone to sue so they can make money (the lawyers not the patients).
The fact they tried to sue someone else but pulled out because they weren’t going to get much money from them indicates they didn’t consider the TGA or the surgeons liable until they found the person responsible didn’t have as much money as they wanted.
[Tindall Gask Bentley, lawyers for 1300 Australian women with PIP implants, said they were looking at who else might be accountable. This could include surgeons and the Therapeutic Goods Administration, which approved the implants for sale.
About 6000 Australian women received implants with industrial-grade silicone – instead of medical-grade silicone – made by collapsed French company Poly Implant Prothese (PIP).
TGA and international tests have not shown the presence of any toxic chemicals. The TGA has not recommended removal of the implants.]
I should add I have never used the product.
After the federal , tassie and sa elections who will be the most second most senior alp officeholder after the alp chief minister in the act ? Would it be the former alp chief minister Stanhope whose running Christmas Island ?
Compact Crank@2349
There’s more than one way to destroy the NBN, and some of them involve doing whatever Turnbull has cooked up as an alternative just to be different to Labor.
BB said
[There is still time for these bills, probably in more robust form, to be passed. My opinion is that time should be found to negotiate and debate them. The Independents who have suffered so badly from the untrammelled freedom to lie that the media covets so tenaciously should be ready and willing to reconsider]
All well and good but it was the Government that refused to strengthen the bills – the Indies wanted that!
Also, I thought Conroy has said the Bills wouldn’t be presented to Parliament again – and also would not be taken to the election.
I have yet to hear a plausible excuse for the massive cock-up over media reform.
hairy nose
Yes, Conroy said the bills were not coming back. They have gone the way of the dodo.
[“The government sees this as a conclusion to the parliamentary debate on media reform,” he said in a statement on Thursday.
]
[I have yet to hear a plausible excuse for the massive cock-up over media reform.]
Look at what was passed.
Changes to the editorial charter of the ABC and SBS.
Changes to local content rules.
Enough of the serious. In the UK there is a program about to begin teaching London “Bobbies” other languages in polyglot London. Somehow I do not think The Independent took it entirely seriously . 🙂
[Italian
No, don’t worry, there is no mafia in London, we have very few drive-by shootings. Non ti preoccupare; non esiste la Mafia a Londra. Ci sono pochi sparatorie da macchina in corsa
‘Ello, ‘ello, ‘ello. Salve, salve, salve
.
Russian
Yes, I agree, London in the snow doesn’t look that different from Moscow. Da, soglasen, pod snegom london ne tak otlichaetsya ot moskvy]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ello-hola-salve–london-police-officers-given-courses-in-dealing-with-public-in-spanish-polish-russian-arabic-8554814.html
ru
The TV licence fee was cut as well.
Joe Carli @2355
“I like Gibbon’s description of the fearful nation..wtte..: “A nation of slaves will view as magnanimous, the tyrant, who in withdrawing his hand from total brutality, will dispense cruelty in small, measured portions.” “
This is a parallel irony to of the “eye for an eye” parable that hang-em-high rednecks promote.
In the parable, the norm was for an infringement by a neighbouring village was always extreme. You steal my goat (yes merely steal ….. none of the other stuff!!!) and my mob’ll trash your village, rape and murder the females, pillage everything, kill anyone in sight, then burn it to the ground.
In an attempt to reduce the mayhem, Christ says “if they steal (no other verbs allowed) your goat, you can only steal one back” ( ie an eye for an eye).
He was not advocating this as a literal or a satisfactory way to exact justice. He was not advocating this as a measure of fairness. He was just suggesting that it’d be more reasonable than the extreme of obliterating the neighbouring tribe, ie a step in the right direction.
When Newman was the highest ranking Liberal in office, as Brisbane Lord Mayor, the stories were about how the Libs would struggle to get back into the game. How many years ago was that again? I wouldn’t be too concerned about Labor’s future. Swings and slides my friends. That’s politics.
CC
[The ADF is recognised globally as one of the best Forces in the world because of the propensity to question authority, think outside the box and provide unique solutions.
2240
]
Then how come you are voting Liberal, and TA in particular?
guytaur@2339
Their focus groups must still be telling them that Abbott has serious problems with women.
No surprises there!
Yes, Conroy said the bills were not coming back. They have gone the way of the dodo.
We shall see what we shall see:
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/alive-as-a-dodo-20130328-2gxag.html
[The TV licence fee was cut as well.]
Yep. Oh and spectrum for Community TV.
Do nothing Govt. 😛
Hairy Nose
“I have yet to hear a plausible excuse for the massive cock-up over media reform.”
Really!
Best you go back and read Bushfire Bills’s explanation about 9.30 am today.
Breaking news: Rupert Murdoch indictment on conspiracy to suppress civil rights , point 2: ICCPR art.2, right to an effective remedy. Multiple counts. Includes campaign against remedies for unlawful media invasions of privacy
Hairy Nose @2363
Gillard has also said the Bills are dead and won’t even be taken to the election as policy.
Not that you can take what she says to be the truth.
I know its a long weekend but ABC lift your game.
[The Private Health Insurance Administration Council says 60 per cent of people took out cover with exclusions in 2011, up from 60 per cent in 2006.
The private health insurance ombudsman says that figure dropped slightly in the last quarter.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-30/consumers-warned-about-health-insurance-exclusions/4602128
Sky News. What a meeting of the queens of the stone age. Richo and Alan Jones doing mutual foot lavage. Probably more off camera.
Puff @2370
I don’t get to vote for Abbot being in WA.
I strongly believe that the Coalition is the best party to lead Australia into the future from a socioeconomic view point. They are more likely to bring about the economic and social conditions to enable more Australians to become economically independent of our welfare system.
Ruawake @2373
You left off negative wrecking Noalition.
Crank
Your comment is straight out of the GOP hanbook.
Australlia DOES NOT want the US lack of welfare for the poor to pay for corporate welfare.
That way lies wrack and ruin as the GOP in goverment have proved
CC
And why is it so important to cut people off the welfare system?
[They are more likely to bring about the economic and social conditions to enable more Australians to become economically independent of our welfare system.]
How would you measure this? Would the percentage of the population working or looking for work do it?
Or maybe the unemployment rate?
Or a percentage of people claiming child benefit A or maybe B.
How?
Mauler,
Was that a joke post, or for real?
ModLib:
[Newspoll Feb 3rd Better Economic managers:
Coalition 50%
ALP 28%]
Priam fancied evidence of at least one of the circumstances below:
a) Polling was incompetently done
b) Large numbers of people lack the insight/discipline to give a meaningful and properly informed answer to the question
psyclaw@2374
Yes – I have heard his proposed explanation elsewhere, and it seems likely. I can’t respond in more detail without breaking “The Pledge” – but you can read BB’s post at 1955 and judge for yourselves.
I know, the party that indexes military superannuation to the same rate as the old age pension.
Im right eh Cranky?
Was that a joke post, or for real?
Puff,
are you referring to:
[Breaking news: Rupert Murdoch indictment on conspiracy to suppress civil rights , point 2: ICCPR art.2, right to an effective remedy. Multiple counts. Includes campaign against remedies for unlawful media invasions of privacy]
or
[I strongly believe that the Coalition is the best party to lead Australia into the future from a socioeconomic view point. They are more likely to bring about the economic and social conditions to enable more Australians to become economically independent of our welfare system.]
It would be great if the pension (not just old age) was linked to that of politicians.
Politicians would be forced to cut back or bankrupt the country.
Gary, The Truth is Gillard and Rudd are both equally to blame for what has come to pass but Gillard slightly more given the 2010knifing. The ALP will have ample time to contemplate doctrinal error given the average length of time for ALP federal governments to be elected say hello to Prime Minister Rishworth in December 2027.
Adam however is magnificent.
Crank the biggest expense in the welfare budget is not the pensions but the system that lives of the disadvantaged but no where does the Government or the alternative seem to have a plan to bring it into line unless the NDIS is fully implemented as purposed by the productivity commission.
CC
I can see nothing in the LNP policies which would transition people on welfare to economic independence. It would be the opposite, actually. They will put people onto welfare and cut the ones, such as the NDIS, which would have addressed peoples requirements to maximise their participation in society, including the workforce.
It would be interesting to see whether ALP or LNP are more successful in getting people off welfare into work or with enough superannuation to retire on their own money. However the measure would not be simple because some policies show results after a gov’t has changed. The free tertiary education era of Whitlam paid dividends across over decades even if it was not sustainable to continue and was replaced by HECS.
Puff @2382 Welfare should be a transitional assistance measure. It should not be for unlimited periods. You shouldn’t be able to finish school and go straight on to the dole. I support a tiered system that is based on time in paid work.
And the minimum wage system should be scrapped. It stops the unemoyed getting paid work.
Scarpat,
Both. 😆
CC nice theory the real world is somewhat different. Unemployment is a soul destroying experience for most folk.
puff
Crank is advocating for the US concept of Welfare. That is give money to the rich and kick the poor and disadvanted onto the street.
Ah, we get to it CC.
You want cheap labour and people with no alternatives. Very LNP.
CC
Do you run a business of your own?
Crank
There is no evidence to support the theory that abolishing the minimum wage reduces unemployment.
It may be the case that if the minimum is set too high that it may limit employment growth but it is also well known that if wages are too low then good workers will not stick around.
[Welfare should be a transitional assistance measure. It should not be for unlimited periods.]
Tell that to the old age pensioners Cranky. They will throw cans of dog food at you.
[And the minimum wage system should be scrapped. It stops the unemoyed getting paid work.]
You want food stamps as well?