UPDATE (8/4/2013): Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.
Known prior to the 2010 election as Prospect, the western Sydney electorate of McMahon covers two distinct suburban areas separated by Prospect Reservoir and semi-rural areas immediately to the west. Closer to the city are the suburbs of Greystanes and Fairfield approximately 30 kilometres from the CBD, together with Bossley Park and the Wetherill Park industrial area immediately to the west. These areas collectively account for about 80% of the electorate’s population. In the north-west of the electorate are the City of Penrith suburbs of St Clair and Erskine Park. There is a wide variability in ethnic diversity among the electorate’s suburbs, with English speakers accounting for over three-quarters of the population in St Clair and Erskine Park compared with barely a fifth in and around Fairfield, home to large Arabic and Vietnamese populations. This is broadly reflected in income levels, with family income in the former areas roughly double those of the latter.
Prospect was created at the 1969 election, at which time it covered Liverpool some distance to the south. It was drawn closer to the city with the expansion of parliament in 1984, which saw Liverpool accommodated by the new seat of Fowler. Labor has held the seat at all times, but a weakening trend has been evident since a 5.8% swing in 2004 reduced the margin to 7.1%. This was doubled by the swing to Labor in 2007, but a 6.0% swing in 2010 brought it back down to 7.8%. The area covered by the electorate turned from red to blue in the 2011 state election landslide, the only holdout being Fairfield (the majority of which is in McMahon’s eastern neighbour Blaxland) where the margin was reduced from 20.4% to 1.7%. The swings in Mulgoa, which covers St Clair and Erskine Park, and Smithfield, including Bossley Park and surrounding suburbs, were over 20%.
Prospect/McMahon has been held since 2004 by Chris Bowen, the previous members having been Richard Klugman until 1990 and Janice Crosio thereafter. A member of the New South Wales Right, Bowen served his political apprenticeship as chief-of-staff to state government minister Carl Scully. He was promoted to the front bench in 2006, and on the election of the Rudd government became Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs. His elevation to cabinet came when he filled the vacancy created by the resignation of factional colleague Joel Fitzgibbon in June 2009. He at first assumed the human services, financial services, superannuation and corporate law portfolios, before being delivered the hospital pass of immigration and citizenship after the 2010 election.
Chris Bowen emerged during the current term as one of the principal agitators for Kevin Rudd to return to the leadership, and he was discussed as a possible contender for Treasury and/or the deputy leadership if Rudd’s challenge in February 2012 had succeeded. He emerged unscathed from the reshuffle that followed, and was reassigned to Chris Evans’ portfolios of tertiary education, skills, science and research when Evans bowed out in February 2013. After the collapse of a second bid to draft Kevin Rudd the following month, Bowen forestalled imminent dismissal by joining fellow Rudd backers Martin Ferguson and Kim Carr in an exodus from cabinet.
The preselected Liberal candidate is Ray King, police superintendent for the Liverpool area who served in the same capacity in Fairfield from 2005 to 2008. Fairfield councillor Frank Oliveri had initially been considered the front-runner, but he withdrew amid an Independent Commission Against Corruption inquiry into non-disclosure of election fundraising ahead of the 2007 election. Other contenders for the preselection were Casula real estate agent Joe Romeo and the candidate from 2010, Iraqi immigrant and Fairfield grocery store owner Jamal Elishe.
A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 630 respondents in the electorate, conducted in early March to coincide with five days of campaigning in western Sydney by the Prime Minister, found Bowen to be heading for a heavy defeat with 31.8% of the primary vote against 52.5% for the Liberal Party, panning out to a 62-38 Liberal lead after preferences. A further question on how respondents would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the Labor Party had the Liberal lead at 53-47.
Nemspy..: “The Liberal supporters here, outnumbered as they are, are simply stating their views.”
What views!!?…most are just trying to be smartarses!…with little or no input to the discussion.
[What views!!?…most are just trying to be smartarses!…with little or no input to the discussion.]
Joe, i have not seen one post of yours without a copy and paste quote.
[rummel
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 9:51 pm | PERMALINK
So am i the only one watching QandA?]
I am
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 9:55 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 9:51 pm | PERMALINK
So am i the only one watching QandA?
I am]
Amazing, only two of us.
No. On delay I am looking at Media Watch.
Tom Waterhouse and gambling rules.
PPPPPSHAW!
Margaret Thatcher has reportedly died.
Why would one watch this QANDA? —
And this week, we bring you vacuity from a female perspective …
Perhaps next week they can have the ethnic perspective on stupidity, the youth perspective, the aged, people with disabilities, gays, (they’ve done religion) …
Gosh …
Re future rainfall patterns: there is no doubt that the southern part of Western Australia has been getting hotter and drier in recent decades: the direct cause is thought to be changes in weather patterns in Antarctica. Underpinning this is some sort of global pattern, presumably CO2 driven.
The general scientific consensus is that the north of Australia will become hotter and wetter as global warming progresses.
Until recently, a lot of scientists were saying that global warming will cause the south-east to become drier. But more recently some reputable scientists have cast doubt on this prediction. Which makes sense, as it was a bit counter-intuitive: evidence of past climate patterns has shown the south-east as getting drier as the earth cools and wetter as the earth warms.
I’m a keen reader of this sort of stuff and this is what I’ve gleaned.
BTW I’m certainly convinced that global warming is real.
fess
Yes, she died of a stroke.
Confessions:
[Margaret Thatcher has reportedly died.]
Really? So the ‘iron lady’ finally oxidised … No loss there …
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22067155
QandA beat the bbc by about four minutes lol
That comment lacks a touch of class, Fran.
Thatcher.
Well. I offer condolences to any family member who has taken a different path.
[2310
Fran Barlow
Confessions:
Margaret Thatcher has reportedly died.
Really? So the ‘iron lady’ finally oxidised … No loss there]
no longer rusted on.
Q&A ? I be watching QI .
[No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend’s or of thine own were: any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee.]
So the cursed AEC has tracked me down at my new address, intent on forcing me to turn up on election day, even though I have no interest in voting for anyone running.
Nothing says “freedom” and “rights” to me like a letter that signs off with a threat to “toe the line or else you’ll be fined”.
Nempsy:
Just tag along, smile and write “None of the above” on the ballot.
Thats what I will probably do….
rummel@2300
No
Good.
[Margaret Thatcher dies: Politics blog]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2013/apr/08/miliband-clegg-local-elections-cameron-madrid
rummel@2304
TV, what’s that?
Mod Lib: That’s what I’ll do. I honestly wish there was an actual “none of the above” option on the ballots so the disaffected could voice their disgust without being lumped in with the knuckle-draggers who couldn’t fill out the ballot correctly.
I thought QandA was an African American celebration just before Christmas…..
RIP Maggie T.
Fran
[Really? So the ‘iron lady’ finally oxidised … No loss there …]
Disgusting comment. I always find it intriguing how the Loonie Lefties’ compassion and bleeding heart is so selective.
Nempsy Give a scrutineer a thrill and do what modlib suggested or else Vote1 Labor 🙂
Baroness Thatcher has passed away.
A truely great woman.
So terribly sad.
Nemspy
Vote 1 “None of the above”. I have no probs with compulsory voting but believe that option should be available.
Richard Willingham of The Age with results of the vote of local ALP members for the Gellibrand preselection: Tim Watts 126, Kimberley Kitching 105, Katie Hall 87, and some people called McKinnon and Mason on 42 and 4. The party’s Public Office Selection Committee will, I believe, determine the other half of the vote tomorrow.
Mick77:
One has to remember that they run on hate.
Just look at Rudd vs. Gillard
Fran. I am almost afraid to watch QnoA.
I have not seen last week’s episode, either.
Germaine Greer I fear for. What stupid thing she may say.
As a role model, in formative years, she has lately severely disappointed me.
Rummel..; “Joe, i have not seen one post of yours without a copy and paste quote.”
What a disingenuous dickhead statement!…With the enormous turnover of posts here one has to supply identification of to whom and what one is replying to!
Mug!
briefly@2314
I remember when Menzies died there was a rather witty letter to the editor in some publication I used to read, probably not the MSM.
[Ashes to ashes,
Dust to dust.
Pig Iron Bob
Has turned to rust.]
[Nempsy Give a scrutineer a thrill and do what modlib suggested or else Vote1 Labor ]
OR better still. Write in “Turnbull”!!!!!
Perhaps we can win a write-in election?
[Mick77
Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
Fran
Really? So the ‘iron lady’ finally oxidised … No loss there …
Disgusting comment. I always find it intriguing how the Loonie Lefties’ compassion and bleeding heart is so selective.]
Dont bother Mick, she is not Gillard.
William Was Tim Watts the choice of Conroy or Shorten?
[2329
William Bowe
Richard Willingham of The Age with results of the vote of local ALP members for the Gellibrand preselection:]
Do you know what this means for the factional power balance?
The Left really do enjoy their hating.
Is it genetic or learnt behaviour?
[Do you know what this means for the factional power balance?]
Shorten rules!
[Dont bother Mick, she is not Gillard.]
Can you imagine if someone had posted something along those lines when Gillard’s father died?
[One has to remember that they run on hate.
Just look at Rudd vs. Gillard]
Hilarious. So speaks today’s Right.
One of your historic icons dies and all you can do is handwring about your opponents and what they say about her.
It’s no wonder Malcolm Fraser deserted you lot for the centre and sanity.
He is, BH. Despite that he’s also a bit of a favourite in the blogosphere – I believe he used to be a contributor to Larvatus Prodeo (which is back, for those who haven’t noticed).
I’m watching Australian story…Bob Hawke – such a nose for glory
I knew Thatcher would die one day.
Mick77
Maggie T was a Rupert puppet and as such deserves no respect.
[Do you know what this means for the factional power balance?]
Not yet. These aren’t the final results – the “Public Office Selection Committee” (which presumably reflects the factional balance at state conference) will determine the other 50% of the vote tomorrow.
Agreed Briefly. Watching Hawkie on Oz Story you would think he was there on the boat, skippering it.
William Bowe@2342
Subtle hint?
[One of your historic icons dies and all you can do is handwring about your opponents and what they say about her.
]
Are you saying no one should complain if the same thing happens when Gough dies?
bemused… 🙂