Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll is unchanged at 55-45, although the Coalition is down two on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Gillard is up two on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 60%, while Abbott is up one and down one to 36% and 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is up slightly, from 40-37 to 40-35.

Also out today:

• The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.

• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,239 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 25
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  2. Rummel @ 89 – then what reason did the Liberals have for blocking the Malaysia solution? It could well have been a circuit breaker – no one would want to risk being in the first 800, although in its current form it probably wouldn’t work now. Still, a solution would be in the form of some sort of regional agreement of which an expanded Malaysia solution would be a start. A cynic might say the Liberals don’t want the boats to stop coming before the election

    I might accept that Joe Hockey, for example, genuinely cares about drownings at sea. He also claims to be concerned about the welfare of asylum seekers sent back to Malaysia with protections, although he is apparently happy for asylum seekers on unseaworthy boats to be turned back on the high seas to a very uncertain future in Indonesia if they make it back far. Certainly the callers to talkback radio and commenters on Murdoch tabloids don’t care about the asylum seekers’ welfare.

  3. [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 10:08 am | PERMALINK
    rummwl

    The point is that “Stopping the Boats” is a lie. One Labor has not said. Labor has said stop the people smugglers model. A different thing.]

    What a laugh.. So Labor are going to stop the people smugglers and not stop the boats? thats some fine policy right there lol.

  4. rummel

    It might be possible to stop the people smugglers with help from Indonesia.

    The only way to stop the boats is to stop the reason people become refugees in the first place.

    Abbott “stop the boats” policy is King Canute holding back the tide.

  5. “@AlanKohler: RT @jeffgilling: @turnbullmalcolm “It’s a fine line between pleasure and pain, You’ve done it once, you can do it again.” #Leadership”

    😆

  6. I will cause some joy among the lesser minds on PB by reporting from my ALP branch meeting that there will be no change in ALP leadership prior to the election.

    Rudd is not willing to take it on at this stage and who else would want it?

    Reading between the lines, it appears caucus is resigned to defeat on a serious scale with losses even in Victoria.

    I missed the previous branch meeting but there was a motion passed deploring the spill that wasn’t and this got sent to the State Secretary, Federal Secretary and all of Caucus. A few replies came in from MPs but that was all.

    So folks, brace yourselves to follow Julia over the cliff. Your wishes will be fulfilled!

  7. [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 10:16 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    It might be possible to stop the people smugglers with help from Indonesia.

    The only way to stop the boats is to stop the reason people become refugees in the first place.]

    guytaur

    They are economic refugees who have fled half way around the world using planes, trains and automobiles. I am totally against the que jumpers who jump on boats because they have used monetary advantage to get infront of the poor people. These poor refugees who cant afford a meal yet alone a plane ticket halfway around the world then thousands of dollars to pay a people smuggler.

  8. rummel

    There is no proof to your claims of economic refugees.

    If there was proof Scott Morrison would be out there every day telling people about it.

    He does not.

    The old fallback when your argument is failing making an unfounded label to dismiss the credibility of the person you are arguing against.

  9. [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 10:26 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    There is no proof to your claims of economic refugees.]

    What more proof do you need then the People smugglers charging thousands of dollars for a one way trip………. Im sure a poor African camp refugee would love to have a few thousand dollars spare to fly to Indo and then pay thousands of dollars to the people smugglers… but they dont, one meal a day is there issue.

    And whats more disgusting is Labor are striping the aid budget to pay for these que jumpers.

  10. rummel

    Yeah yeah. Its the victims fault they are exploited and have to well their worldly possessions and come penniless to another country.

    More blame the victim. Anything to suggest they are people with rights we should respect.

    Bad as Labor is at least they are not doing the dog whistling your mob is.

  11. I for one welcome our new Liberal overlords and could be useful in rounding up others to work under workchoices conditions.

  12. [http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parramatta-pushing-for-17b-tram-routes-20130422-2iaq1.html#ixzz2REHn7Fj5]

    I don’t see why constructing light rail is so expensive. Its not like you are ripping up the whole street.

  13. [http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/not-happy-barry-premier-loses-crucial-nile-vote-20130423-2ibij.html]

    Hi five Barry, upsetting fred nile is a very good thing. Supporting SSM is worth the pain.

  15. rummel

    [they have used monetary advantage to get infront of the poor people]
    Strange that you object to that. Ensuring the wealthy continue to “get in front of the poor people” is a core mission of your side of politics.

  17. rummel

    Your argument on “economic refugees” does not change the fact that “stop the boats” is a lie.

    Abbott will find just like King Canute you cannot hold back the tide.

  18. [Rudd is not willing to take it on at this stage and who else would want it?
    Reading between the lines, it appears caucus is resigned to defeat on a serious scale with losses even in Victoria.]

    Bemused

    This is just what Gillard and supporters have been fighting Rudd for….. they have achieved there goal.

  20. Rummel:

    [I am totally against the queue jumpers who jump on boats because they have used monetary advantage to get infront of the poor people. These poor refugees who cant afford a meal yet alone a plane ticket halfway around the world then thousands of dollars to pay a people smuggler.]

    So really, on your account, it is not sad that some drown. They have, in your view, acted selfishly and at the expense of those you regard as more “deserving” than they are. Your concern for drownings is cant — and merely raised to troll the regime and to cover the ethnic animus your party is channelling on this issue.

    I wonder what your attitude would be if the boats supplied by those facilitating irregular maritime passage didn’t capsize or sink? What if 100% made it to Xmas Island?

    Coversely, what if some “white knight” (Bill Gates?) began conveying those you have disingenuously described as “poor refugees who cant afford a meal yet alone a plane ticket halfway around the world then thousands of dollars to pay a people smuggler” to Australia on chartered aircraft. How long would it be before you and your kind began calling them “queue jumpers” who “just want a better life” and comparing them unfavourably with people in some other setting?

    About ten minutes, I’d say.

  21. [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 10:41 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    Your argument on “economic refugees” does not change the fact that “stop the boats” is a lie.]

    Ok guytaur, Lib “Stop the Boats” is a Lie and Labor “stoping the people smugglers and not the boats” is great policy.

  23. rummel

    I told you. I am with the Greens on AS policy.

    However at least Labor is targeting people smugglers business model and not the impossible stop the boats the LNP loves to promote.

  24. ST
    “”Looking at the breakdown of women and men voters it appears Gillard has a problem with MEN.””

    Some men do not like a women in CHARGE, the get enough of that at home!.

  25. I am totally against the que jumpers who jump on boats because they have used monetary advantage to get infront of the poor people.

    That does not normally bother the political right.

  27. [So really, on your account, it is not sad that some drown.]

    I have not said that at all Fran.

    In fact i cant wait for the Greens and Labor to stick another memorial up by the lake in Canberra to remember all those that have died under Labor policy…… you know! like what they did for the ones that died under JWH watch noting that more have now died under Labor’s watch.

  28. Lynchpin@116

    Bemused, I am heartened by the motion your branch sent. The spill was deplorable.

    It was a wonderfully ambiguous motion that you could have supported with any of these positions:
    1. Gillard loyalist against any change.
    2. Angry at Crean or any other party for promoting it.
    3. Disappointed it did not succeed.

    In other words ‘all things to all men’. I am of course in the third category.

  30. rummel@118

    Rudd is not willing to take it on at this stage and who else would want it?
    Reading between the lines, it appears caucus is resigned to defeat on a serious scale with losses even in Victoria.


    Bemused

    This is just what Gillard and supporters have been fighting Rudd for….. they have achieved there goal.

    Planet PB will be an interesting but hostile environment on 15th September.

  32. [Coversely, what if some “white knight” (Bill Gates?) began conveying those you have disingenuously described as “poor refugees who cant afford a meal yet alone a plane ticket halfway around the world then thousands of dollars to pay a people smuggler” to Australia on chartered aircraft. ]

    Fran

    there is no need for that. If our poor camp sitter manages to get a free refugee spot thats not taken by a Boat person paying thousands to get infront of said camp sitter, the Government of Australian will pick up the tab.

  33. [except for the small matter that he needs Nile’s vote to pass legislation…]

    I am sure Barry can find the odd thing the Shooters and Greens agree upon

  36. Shellbell

    Well we know Labor supports a conscience vote along with Greens and LNP.

    Basically means its all conscience vote.

    The question for Mr O Farrell will be what price he pays with Nile for doing so when future legislation comes up.

  38. I’m amazed that people who think in terms of economics, opportunity cost and cost/benefit analyses, etc. can’t apply those to the issue of refugees.

    Australia receives an insignificant number of refugees and an even more insignificant fraction of those come by boat.

    Whatever time, resources and energy we spend worrying about them would be better spent worrying about something else.

  39. [“”Looking at the breakdown of women and men voters it appears Gillard has a problem with MEN.””]

    I think that statement should be amended to include the words “more of” between “has” and “a”.

  40. 1934PC @ 124

    No, some men don’t like Gillard in charge.
    Also, many women don’t like Gillard in charge. How does that compute ?
    Turning the negative polling on Gillard’s popularity as some sort of sexism is just the putrid tired excuse the leftards use when they have nothing else.

  42. Labor really is in the doldrums in SA, with BHP and now Arafura Resources pulling back investment and GMH shedding workers.

    Don’t be surprised if Port Adelaide is the state’s only Labor seat after September 14. How wonderful it will be to see Prissy Pyne waging culture war,

    Incidentally, Arafura chairman Ian Kowalick (who served both Labor and Liberal governments as head of the Premier’s Department) blamed increasing costs but not specifically SA’s tax regime for the decision not to proceed with investment at Whyalla. Our ABC last night did not quote Kowalick had gave Opposition leader Steven Marshall a decent free kick with his rant on taxes.

  48. [morpheus
    Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 11:07 am | PERMALINK
    Toorak Toff @ 142

    So, do we expect any more dancing and singing from that retard Emerson ]

    Dear morpheus,

    As a Lib i request that you do not call Labor members of parliament names such as retard. We leave name calling on PB to the left.

  49. Perhaps we could get Emerson to do a special version of “It’s a fine line between pleasure and pain” around 11pm on Saturday 14 September 2013. Chrissy can’t sue him now.

  50. TT

    There definitely has been a paucity of good news in SA. Weatherill isn’t cutting through. He’s decent enough but doesn’t have much impact.

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