Seat of the week: Aston

Redistribution has given Labor a boost in an eastern Melbourne seat that has remained outside their grasp for over two decades, though perhaps not enough of one in the current environment.

The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully. The redistribution has effected an eastwards shift at the northern end by moving 16,000 voters in Liberal-leaning Vermont to Deakin and adding a similar number in marginal Boronia from La Trobe, reducing the Liberal margin from 1.8% to 0.7%.

Aston was held for its first two terms by Labor’s John Saunderson, who had won the neighbouring seat of Deakin for Labor in 1983. Saunderson inherited a notional Labor margin of 4.1%, which rose to 6.5% in 1987. Saunderson then copped the full force of Labor’s statewide battering in 1990, when it was one of three Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to the Coalition and one of nine to be gained by them. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Peter Nugent, a noted moderate who at times bucked his party’s line on indigenous issues. Nugent’s sudden death in April 2001 resulted in a by-election three months later which delivered the Howard government a morale-boosting win that predated the game-changing Tampa episode by a month, Labor managing a swing of only 3.7% swing in the face of a 4.2% Liberal margin.

The member for the next two terms was Chris Pearce, a Knox councillor and managing director of an IT company. Pearce picked up a 7.1% swing at the 2004 election, the biggest in the state in the context of what was a strong performance by the Liberals throughout suburban Melbourne. It was widely noted that this left the seat with a bigger Liberal margin than the famously blue-ribbon Kooyong, which was seen to typify the hold the Howard government had secured in middle-class outer suburbs. However, it equally joined many such seats in swinging heavily to Labor at the 2007 election, when an 8.1% swing reduced Pearce’s margin to 5.1%. Pearce meanwhile became closely associated with Peter Costello, and his announcement he would bow out at the 2010 election came hard on the heels of Costello’s.

The hotly contested preselection to choose Pearce’s successor was won by Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, ahead of Neil Angus, a chartered accountant who would go on to win Forest Hill for the Liberals at the November 2010 state election. Labor was vaguely hopeful that Pearce’s retirement would help add Aston to a list of Victorian gains compensating for expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but the 3.3% swing fell short of the 5.1% margin. Labor has again endorsed its candidate from the 2010 election, Rupert Evans, deputy secretary of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,002 comments on “Seat of the week: Aston”

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  1. [Didn’t Johns play for NSW when they used to win the SOO occaisionally?

    Can’t remember it was so long ago.]

    Bob Carr was premier back then!

    I’m sure the Blues just need to have a book club meeting.

  2. A reminder re qanda for those interested

    Clive Palmer – Mining Magnate
    Ged Kearney – President of the Australian Council of Trade Unions
    Tim Nicholls – Queensland Treasurer
    Larissa Waters – Queensland Greens Senator
    Bob Katter – Political maverick and Leader of the Australian Party

  5. How many times have the Liberal Party said bulk billing will be rooned by the Govt? I remember every change came with anyone but Dutton wailing about how Medicare was on the brink.

    [
    THE latest Medicare figures show bulk billing rates for GP services at historic highs of 82.4 per cent, Federal Health Minister Tanya Plibersek says.

    Ms Plibersek on Monday released the March quarter Medicare statistics, attributing the record GP bulk billing rates to the “concerted effort” of the Labor government.

    “We see 82.4 per cent of all GP visits being bulk-billed now – that compares very favourably with the time Tony Abbott was health minister, when it was down at 67 per cent of visits,” Ms Plibersek told reporters in Canberra.]

    Too bad, so sad.

  6. victoria

    A must watch as far as entertainment is concerned. It will be interesting to see how much Palmer and Katter agree

  11. victoria

    re: Q&A – Ged and Larissa must be wondering what they’ve got themselves into. Their agents should have heeded the WC Fields advice to never work with kids or animals. Even Larissa might shine in this low wattage affair. Ged will look like an absolute star/supernova.

  15. Tampa affair 2001 John Howard
    Children Overboard Affair 2001 John Howard
    Unlawful detention of Cornelia Rau 2005 Philip Ruddock
    Unlawful deportation of Vivian Solon 2005 Philip Ruddock
    AWB Oil-for-Wheat Scandal 2006 AWB Limited
    Muhamed Haneef affair 2007 Philip Ruddock, Kevin Andrews
    Lindsay pamphlet scandal 2007 Jackie Kelly
    Utegate or OzCar affair 2009 Malcolm Turnbull, Godwin Grech

    On 14 August 2010, just as the travel abuse allegations were gaining momentum, it was revealed that a move had been made to attempt to disendorse Slipper in favour of former MP Mal Brough for his seat of Fisher at the next election.

    This shows without any doubt that all the alleged corruption happened under Abbott as Leader of the Opposition and previously John Howard

    On 28 September 2010, Slipper accepted Labor’s nomination to serve as Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives

  16. Morgan Poll virtually unchanged from last week – 56/44.

    Other survey results not flattering for Swan. 54.5% of surveyed don’t believe Swan is doing a good job and consider the pre-release of bad news as a political ploy.

  17. fess

    Mining tycoon and would-be federal politician Clive Palmer feared former speaker Peter Slipper could wreck his United Australia Party if he remained a key member.
    Mr Palmer even worried that Mr Slipper could be a ”mole” planted by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to bring his party undone.
    Mr Slipper has dismissed Mr Palmer’s theory as fanciful, and says far from being expelled, he withdrew his application for membership because it was made public without his knowledge.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/palmer-had-fears-slipper-was-a-mole-for-abbott-20130512-2jg7r.html#ixzz2T9m2eZ45

  18. Former prime minister John Howard believes the Australian economy is in “good shape”, especially in comparison to the rest of the world.

    Speaking at the MFAA conference in Sydney on Friday, Mr Howard said that while many people believe the Australian economy is “running on empty at the moment”, it has actually shown an unexpected resilience.

    Mr Howard said he is optimistic and bullish about the future of the country.

    “When the current prime minister and the treasurer and others tell you that the Australian economy is doing better than most – they are right,” he said.

    “We are still fortunate that we have an unemployment rate with a five in front of it. I wouldn’t have thought that was going to be possible a couple of years ago, and I don’t think many people would have. Our unemployment has remained pleasingly quite low.

    “And our debt to GDP ratio, the amount of money we owe to the strength of our economy, is still a lot better than most other countries.”

  19. [“We see 82.4 per cent of all GP visits being bulk-billed now – that compares very favourably with the time Tony Abbott was health minister, when it was down at 67 per cent of visits,” Ms Plibersek told reporters in Canberra.]

    Damn those pesky facts and figures. 😆

  20. davidwh
    Posted Monday, May 13, 2013 at 5:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Morgan Poll virtually unchanged from last week – 56/44.

    ——-

    Where was morgan poll after abbott last week ?

    more evidence the opinion polls are nothing but media driven rubbish

  23. [Wayne Swan ‏@SwannyDPM 16m
    On Wed we’ll introduce legislation for a levy to fund DisabilityCare Australia.]

    Abbott snookered. He will try to run away from the Disability Care levy but he has to debate it. Oh and have his debate on confidence and his reply to the budget.

    Does he own a tardis?

  24. The Chris Hadfield Space Oddity youtube had 301 views when I linked it here this morning. It now has over 211,000 views. 🙂

  26. From John Howard

    “When the current prime minister and the treasurer and others tell you that the Australian economy is doing better than most – they are right,” he said.

    “We are still fortunate that we have an unemployment rate with a five in front of it. I wouldn’t have thought that was going to be possible a couple of years ago, and I don’t think many people would have. Our unemployment has remained pleasingly quite low.

    “And our debt to GDP ratio, the amount of money we owe to the strength of our economy, is still a lot better than most other countries.”

    That said, Mr Howard said it was important for Australia to be constantly striving for growth and betterment, so that our competitors don’t overtake us.

    “In an international environment, in a globalised world economy, you have people who are in that economic foot race who are trying to get past you. And the problem about slowing down in that footrace, even if you can’t ever get to the finishing line, is that if you slow down, other people are going to go past you,” he said.

    “And that is a bit like what’s happening at the present time. We’ve been doing well in that footrace for about 25 years, but we’re now starting to slow down.”

  27. The real Clive is a raving maniac billionaire standing under a freezing cold shower tearing up $100 bills.

  34. poroti:

    I don’t like the city shots as much as I do those ones where you see corners or coastlines of continents or striking mountain ranges. He posted one of Boston earlier, and I was like, ho hum.

  35. Confessions and Poroti
    I sent one of my followers the link on The Space Oddity, he said it is in the English papers and he watches it go over at night.

  37. davidwh
    Posted Monday, May 13, 2013 at 5:52 pm | PERMALINK
    MB there was a Morgan released last Monday which showed a 2% swing back to Labor.

    ——

    but still no poll after Abbott ir reform

    David wh
    there is no defence for these media driven polls anymore

  39. davidwh:

    I’ve always thought Barnaby fakes his cluelessness along with this accent in order to appeal to Qlders. Perhaps Clive is faking his bumblingness for the same reason?

  40. confessions

    [

    The Chris Hadfield Space Oddity youtube ]
    Wow. That was fantastic and from a real “spaceman” ! Here is the original. I dare say he will get a call from Bowie when he returns. First extraterrestrial hit song ?
    [David Bowie- Space Oddity Original Video (1969]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D67kmFzSh_o

  43. poroti:

    I got the feeling from the credits that Bowie helped out with it. Maybe it was just to acknowledge copyright though. Not sure.

  44. davidwh

    more evidence of how the opinion polls , only get made public when it inline with the media propaganda

    2 reachtel polls in northern tablelands in the last 3 weeks , about the by-election and federal election in new england

    No results are made public why

    1- they do not reflect the the media’s agenda

    2- they must reflect reality

    which means the coalition is in trouble

  45. victoria – I had hoped clive would join Katter for the Clatter Party, but if it splits the redneck vote from the LNP in Qld I say more power to them all. I fondly remember the Joh for PM campaign – kept Howard out.

  49. News flash from the Eden manaro fact checker…..

    The only figures in tomorrow’s budget that are correct…..

    2013/14

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