GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.
There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.
The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).
Abbott, soon to be PM
It sort of points to the possibility that KAP and PUP are taking more votes from Labor than LNP. A big qualification on this result is that it is inconsistent with the Nielsen state break-up although the Nielsen poll is a much smaller sample.
Gillard is the Gift that keeps Giving
From 28% primary vote, that’s 8% primary vote required between now and the election to get to the magic 36% number which is needed in order to win some seats …
Not going to happen with Gillard/Swan at the helm!
And if the ALP can’t win seats in Queensland, they’re for lack of a better word, screwed
From the last thread
William Bowe
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:02 pm | Permalink
I’m sure they’ll have Dame Edna on shortly.
Not entirely far-fetched. Dame Edna took her title from having it conferred on her by Gugh at Sydney Airport.
Philip Adams and whoever else was involved (Bruce Beresford?) had got Gough to agree to a brief cameo in their Bsrry McKenzie film. Meeting the McKenzie people (including Aunt Edna), along with a band and the Rooty Hill Marching Girls.
I think Gough, ever the ham, improvised the next bit and conferred a Damehood on Edna, She played along with it, with a very grateful bow and cutsey, and has ever since been Dame Edna.
We are likely to see the Rudd effect important in QLD right up to the election. Can’t see QLD saving Labor despite the problems caused by Katter and Palmer. NSW remains the key to the federal election.
davidwh
If the ALP doesn’t win seats in Queensland, what happens in NSW will be immaterial in realtion to the end result
Spur I just can’t see Labor winning many seats in QLD with their current leadership team. Rudd is still the injured party and the Newman effect has faded.
davidwh
Neither can I. It’s not so much that the Newman effect has faded. It’s more that Gillard is back in the spotlight in the state
Emails for the SA Chapter Queens Birthday Weekend Knees Up were just sent out. If you want to come and don’t get an email, contact me by email address ajaxstamp at hotmail dot com.
Queensland is a sad case. That is one place which could never govern itself. It should have been made a territory decades ago.
Having lived in SA and now live in Qld I’m not sure that
Saying qld is a sad case applys
[3
Sean Tisme
Gillard is the Gift that keeps Giving]
Not to worry, we know the LNP will completely wreck everything if they do win. For sure, at best a Pyrrhic victory lies ahead them.
We’ve seen it all before: slovenly incompetence, dim-witted waste, weakness and arrogance for all to enjoy.
The latest spluttering choke in the most drawn-out death rattle of any Australian government.
Labor appears to be getting smacked for the decline in the QLD economy, which so far has been relatively mild. Once the LNP get the chance to wreck the national economy too, the downturn in QLD will seem very mild indeed.
Increasingly hard to see where Labor is going to pick up LNP seats to get out of minority government. I wonder if announcing the election date so early was a good move or if it just meant more people than usual have made their choice early.
It’s seems for Labor to avoid defeat there is going to have to be a new game changer now NDIS, Gonski, IR and the budget have all done the rounds and havent put the ALP in the lead. Not sure what that could be?
[1
rummel
Abbott, soon to be PM]
A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.
Stop gloating, or whinging. This contest is far from over yet.
[briefly
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | PERMALINK
1
rummel
Abbott, soon to be PM
A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.]
Briefly,
I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.
[briefly
We’ve seen it all before: slovenly incompetence, dim-witted waste, weakness and arrogance for all to enjoy]
Indeed we have! 2007-present!
[briefly
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink
1
rummel
Abbott, soon to be PM
A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.]
Yep, he’s terrible. So bad that even I, as someone who has voted for the Coalition my entire life, am not going to vote at this election because I can’t stomach voting for Abbott.
And yet, barring some sort of miracle, Gillard is going to lose in a landslide.
What does that say about Gillard?
Zoomster and Puff
Excuse me. Sudden influx of visitors.
Thanks both. Ginger Up! Zoomster, book sounds excellent.
Zorica Sherrington
Fabulous names.
The downturn in the economy is not restricted to Qld.It is everywhere. The people experiencing the downturn will no doubt wonder why,after many years of growth why now. The GFC experience here may have been temporarily delayed or over time actually magnified. Only in a year or two will we know. It takes a long time to slow a competent economy(we weren’t Selling paper bag surprise mortgages) it also takes a long time and different direction to accelerate it again. Is what is being offered at the next election going to solve it? I think not.
Some new thinking is required. However this Govt will Go No Doubt.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ofarrell-out-to-trump-pm-on-sports-betting-20130526-2n5e4.html
Ofaty out swining
GD
I love your recollections.
In a statement released almost immediately after Ms Gillard’s statement, the country’s broadcasters announced that they had accepted her demands.
“These are unprecedented restrictions for broadcasters but we accept the government has acted in response to community concern,” Free TV chief executive Julie Flynn said.
The Australian Wagering Council also accepted the proposal, saying it understood there were “community concerns” and it did “not want children talking about gambling odds”.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ofarrell-out-to-trump-pm-on-sports-betting-20130526-2n5e4.html#ixzz2UPOfh9It
[And yet, barring some sort of miracle, Gillard is going to lose in a landslide.
What does that say about Gillard?]
Given the predictions of her doom “any day now” the punditocracy over three years – all of which have been completely wrong – I’d say she doesn’t need a miracle, just business as usual.
@bushfire bill
Business as usual… For the last 3 years JG Labor has been behind in the polls. Tests at the state and territory elections during this time don’t exactly give a lot of hope for the ALP cause either.
State by state or seat by seat, where are the extra four seats going to come from, plus whatever else is needed to offset any lost to the LNP?
I can see the LNP path to a majority, Fisher, Lyne and o’Conner, it looks a fair bit easier than Labors path. Where do you see the LNP vulnerability to lose seats to Labor?
http://www.news.com.au/national-news/labor-heads-are-in-the-sand/story-fncynjr2-1226650952880
[I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.]
Let us know when you’ve really thought about it.
[16
Zorica Sherrington
Increasingly hard to see where Labor is going to pick up LNP seats to get out of minority government. I wonder if announcing the election date so early was a good move or if it just meant more people than usual have made their choice early.
It’s seems for Labor to avoid defeat there is going to have to be a new game changer now NDIS, Gonski, IR and the budget have all done the rounds and havent put the ALP in the lead. Not sure what that could be?]
There’s probably nothing to be done. We should all prepare for chaos. The LNP are demonstrably incapable. This is our fate: to be subject to gross misrule by the abjectly unprepared.
In 2007, during Rudd’s ascendancy, it was pretty clear the US property bubble would break sometime in the following year or two. Sure enough, after property prices peaked in 2005 and then slipped a little for 3 years, the sub-prime crisis triggered a collapse in high-risk lending in 2008, which rapidly relayed contraction through US banking, leading to a decline in the property market of about 35% by 2009.
The US had a property bubble. But we have four bubbles: our own property market, bulk commodity incomes, the surge of capital into resources and energy and the balloon that is the AUD. The latter three are clearly now deflating. As this process starts to harm household incomes, we should expect the first bubble – property – to also succumb.
Realistically, unless we get very lucky, very clever or very determined, or all three, we are rooted.
They need to roll Gillard immediately and reinstate PM Rudd if only to save the furniture.
[19
rummel
briefly
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | PERMALINK
1
rummel
Abbott, soon to be PM
A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.
Briefly,
I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.]
Well, I have been pondering on it for some time. Perhaps that’s why I’m so bearish these days.
[33
Sean Tisme
They need to roll Gillard immediately and reinstate PM Rudd if only to save the furniture.]
From my point of view, Rudd is the old rocking chair. It can go on the fire too.
@briefly – you may well be correct in your view of the economy. It may perhaps be a good election for Labor to lose. Fiscal policy lever has already been pulled and the electorate has little appetite for increasing the debt. IR is a debate we can’t have due to political sensitivity. That pretty much leaves monetary policy, interest rates still have room to move downwards, which should also lower the dollar.
Looks like whoever wins will have tied hands and few options to handle the buffering of the world economy. I do sense that business and consumer confidence should come back a bit with a majority government, but they are both fickle things.
59-41
Fair enough… Labor should now recognise Qld’s propensity for idiotic policy and give it to them – FTTN – Eductaion funding as per normal – no green energy money – no flood plan – no super concessions – and all the Libs intended cuts with fewer Federal public servants in support… while their at it they can return the levy Labor took a hit on to save their arses. Labor can give all savings to NSW and Vic and walk the election in. Simple.
@Sean Tisme – Rudd would be a game changer. It would boost Labor in Qld, but I wonder what it would do to the sisterhood vote for JG? I guess it depends in how it goes down. Also the LNP would have a field day replaying all the clips of senior Labor ministers trashing Rudd and driving trucks through the gaps in unity within the party.
Case B, steady as she goes, in which case I feel if JG even looks like making it, KR and Crew will no doubt leak a few things to the press as before.
In his heart of hearts, I wonder if KR would be happier on 14 Sept seeing Gillard win or Abbott win? Loyalty to party versus personal feelings.
It would be better for Labor and politics in Australia if Labor gets a belting..but the Coalition not get control of the Senate.
How much further to the right would gillard and her backers drag Australia if they won…it would be unthinkable.
The factional scum that continues to spit on democracy and the party needs some heavy blood letting.
[Case B, steady as she goes, in which case I feel if JG even looks like making it, KR and Crew will no doubt leak a few things to the press as before.]
agree, still cant understand why team gillard have so much hope? Even if Gillard does well, the defeated Labor forces will still resist and leak as pay back. The whole Gillard take over was always going to end in tears.
[In his heart of hearts, I wonder if KR would be happier on 14 Sept seeing Gillard win or Abbott win? Loyalty to party versus personal feelings.]
i dare say he just wants Gillard removed as PM, be it at the hands of caucus or the voters.
good to see you back Thomas. Paine.
[36
Zorica Sherrington
I do sense that business and consumer confidence should come back a bit with a majority government, but they are both fickle things.]
Why should confidence improve? I don’t know anyone in business that thinks Abbott is up to the job. Literally – no-one. I have plenty of friends in business who are going to vote Labor because they hold grave fears about Abbott – many are die-hard LNP voters, but in Abbott they just see a hopeless misfit. It is households in the broad that have switched off Labor, and they’ve done so for hip pocket reasons: incomes are in trouble. The bubble in the terms of trade peaked two years ago and is deflating steadily.
Consumer confidence is related to incomes, jobs, interest rates. Incomes have been sagging because of developments in the private economy. Abbott cannot change these, even if, laughably, he says he can. Indeed, even though everyone expects him to win, consumer confidence has been falling very sharply.
[From my point of view, Rudd is the old rocking chair. It can go on the fire too.]
Well we know you already. You are one those who would rather have Abbott, Pol Pot… anybody but Rudd. And not for the good of the party, but out of spite.
@briefly – I didn’t say an Abbott Government, I said a majority Government, which to be fair may well be an Abbott lead Government or a Gillard Government. Minority Gov as we have it doesn’t seem to have filled either business or consumers with glee about the parliament.
[39…Thomas. Paine.]
Spoken like a medieval surgeon…bleed the patient till he faints!! And then bleed him some more!
Don’t worry TP, you will be able to dance in the streets in celebration of the victory you crave. Dance till you topple over, TP, because that’s what lies ahead for the country: a toppling.
The global economy has been walking a very high ledge for a few years. It is amazing how much you can pump a balloon before it bursts. But when it burst things will happen so fast you will shit yourself. Hence TPTB in Europe and the US will use, abuse and corrupt every financial mechanism they can to keep the game going…and to ensure their backers don’t lose out.
That the balloon is going to burst has been inevitable for a little while now. Get your shit in order now as you wont have time for it later.
TP, as you know, I was a Ruddocrat too. But he let us down. I’m entitled to my view, as are you.
Zorica…fair point, the fineness of which escaped me.
I really think events are outside the hands of politicians just at the moment, which is a scary thing to contemplate.
Was the RBA correct in raising the Int Rates Mid 07. I’ll always remember the Swan announcement of the inflation genie being out of the bottle. I had recently just started watching the world commodities and had seen that(wheat, cotton, rubber , oil, palm oil, coffee , cocoa , every thing required) was in a Pre GFC bubble. Was this an inflation genie of our making?. It became clear that we were raising rates and changing govts in economic terms that did not make sense. So when thinks don’t make sense you save and risk taking is gone. Risk taking sometimes creates revenue for Govt. I wonder if the Govt calculate both sides of the ledger when they try to raise revenue. So is there investment money sitting waiting to be deployed that may create Govt revenue,and maybe a Govt Surplus. I suspect that after sep 15 it will be revealed.
[49…silmaj]
This is the bet Hockey has made. He’s declared as much. But it won’t work. Business investment is falling (in all, very quickly); households cannot expand their risk because incomes are falling.
The really, really huge problem is the unreasonable fear people have of public sector debt. They are utterly phobic about it. This is just silly, and is a consequence of political rhetoric over many, many years. The LNP are going to find they will either have to accept higher debts or create a recession. They have talked themselves into an impossible position. Whatever happens, they will lose public support very quickly.