Little change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week (see the sidebar for details), though what’s there is enough to send the Greens to a new low and “others” to a new high for the current term. The only new additions are the latest numbers from the two weekly pollsters:
• Essential Research has moved in Labor’s favour, their primary vote up one to 36% with the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 8%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46. The monthly personal ratings record very little change, with Julia Gillard down one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 54%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 40% and down one to 49%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-39 to 40-39. Pleasingly, further questions concern campaign finance and find 29% support for public funding of political parties against 47% who think they should be funded only by donations; 65% support for donation caps against only 17% for unlimited donations; and only 5% opposed to public disclosure of donations (Institute of Public Affairs, take note). Thirty-six per cent supported the $1000 disclosure threshold originally proposed by the government, 26% favoured the $5000 agreed to under the doomed compromise with the Liberals, and only 17% supported the present $12,000 threshold. Other questions concerned tolerance (69% rating racism a large or moderate problem in Australian society) and Pauline Hanson (58% think it unlikely she would make a positive contribution to parliament against 30% for likely).
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor down half a point to 31%, the Coalition up half to 46% and the Greens steady on 9.5%. Both previous election and respondent-allocated preference measures of two-party preferred are at 56-44, compared with 55.5-44.5 and 55-45 last week.
Further polling:
• The Sunday Fairfax papers carried results from a ReachTEL automated phone of 3500 respondents in six Labor seats, which found Jason Clare on 48% of two-party preferred in Blaxland, Peter Garrett on 49% in Kingsford Smith, Bill Shorten and Wayne Swan on 53% in Maribyrnong and Lilley, and Jenny Macklin on 57% in Jagajaga. Also covered was Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin, but here we were told only that he was trailing. The poll also inquired as to how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership, which had Labor improving 4.5% in Kingsford Smith, 8.4% in Blaxland, 3.6% in Lilley, 11.8% in Rankin, 3.1% in Jagajaga and 8.6% in Maribyrnong.
• Roy Morgan also published a phone poll of 546 respondents on Friday which found 21%, 16% and 16% of respondents would respectively “consider” voting for Julian Assange’s Wikileaks Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party. The Australian Financial Review also reported that Labor pollsters UMR Research had found 26% of respondents “would be willing” to support Assange’s party. Personally, I don’t find questions on voting intention of much value unless respondents are required to choose from a limited range of options.
Preselection news:
• Martin Ferguson’s announcement that he will bow out at the coming election has unleashed a preselection struggle for possibly the safest Labor seat in the country, the inner Melbourne seat of Batman. The vacancy was immediately perceived by Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten as a chance to accommodate Senator David Feeney, a Right powerbroker and key Gillard ally who has been stranded with what looks to be the unwinnable third position on the Victorian Senate ticket. However, Feeney is meeting fierce opposition from the local Left and those who believe the seat should go to a woman after Tim Watts was chosen to succeed Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand. Penny Wong and Jenny Macklin are in the latter camp, while Julia Gillard’s intervention has been criticised by Brian Howe, the Keating-era Deputy Prime Minister who held the seat from 1977 to 1996. The early talk was that Feeney might be opposed by ACTU president Ged Kearney, but she soon scotched the idea saying she wished to remain in her current position. Support is instead coalescing behind local Left faction member Mary-Anne Thomas, executive manager of Plan International. Two early starters have withdrawn to give her a clear run: Tim Laurence, the mayor of Darebin, and Hutch Hussein, refugee advocate and former national convenor of Emily’s List. Brian Howe has come out in support for Thomas, while Martin Ferguson is backing Feeney despite his long association with the Left. Stephen Mayne and Andrew Crook of Crikey have an extremely detailed review of the situation in the local branches.
• Ed Gannon of the Weekly Times reports the Victorian Liberal Party has defied Tony Abbott and angered the Nationals by resolving to field a candidate in Mallee, which will be vacated by the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. The Nationals candidate, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, said any opponent fielded against him would be “another Liberal Party muppet run out of Melbourne”, which Liberal state director Damien Mantach said was a “shrill outburst … unbecoming of someone who is aspiring to be a local leader and elected to high office”.
• Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party have unveiled high-profile Senate candidates in country singer James Blundell and former Western Bulldogs AFL player Doug Hawkins, who will respectively run for the KAP in Queensland and the PUP in Victoria.
Thomas you summed it up perfectly, my question is this what will they say if they get thrashed in September. We wish we done something but we thought Julia was the answer.
Put simply they must act now if they do not Labor will be out for generation and the Unions will be stuffed totally.
guytaur
I apologise if I upset you (the Abbott apology 😉 ). I know you’re not against “women’s issues” being discussed.
BB
you did mean GOOD looking…not a racial slur
The PM bringing abortion into the election debate is yet more evidence of her total enslavement to the catholic right nutjobs in the ALP………oh, wait…….
I see a mirror on PB.
So I will log off for tonight.
Say goodbye to the ETS
Say goodbye to the NBN
Say goodbye to NDIS
they’ll all go once Tony gets in.
Ch10 news reports that 100 jobs will go at the West. It further reports that staff were informed of this decision by email.
Email!
lizzie
Not upset. Just pointing out a personal bugbear we all succumb to. Generalisations.
Rummel..; “Yes i did GG and i wont do so again.”
Yes you will, Rummel…and again and again and again and ag… till the day you die…you are that sort of dic….”person”.
[I will be around to tell that they supported Abbott 100%]
Sure you will and it will be the same broken record you’ve been playing for 2 years.
Shorten knows she will lose, he wants to be leader after the election but he will never win an election. He does not have the looks and personality. He is not a Prime Minister.
Shorten is trying to work out the best way he can take the helm with the least amount of casualties.
He can back Gillard… wait until she is dumped at the election then take over. He could back Rudd, but this is risky because he might win the election and then he’ll never get a chance to be leader.
Choices… choices…
“It is a little known phenomenon”
alias is using big words again. So little known that he’s the only one knows about it.
Tell us what Barrie said again – that was SOOO much fun!
More fantasy leader from the LNP types who have no policies they can defend
Yep be leader but like Beazley never win an election. Shorten is no leader.
[Shorten is trying to work out the best way he can take the helm with the least amount of casualties.
He can back Gillard… wait until she is dumped at the election then take over. He could back Rudd, but this is risky because he might win the election and then he’ll never get a chance to be leader.]
Sean, Border Control, Disk-4.
All the Coalition buzzwords coming out from these two
[Joe Hockey @JoeHockey 41m
Gillard’s comments on abortion and the Coalition are desperate and offensive. She has never deserved respect and will never receive it.]
[Julie Bishop @JulieBishopMP 15m
@JoeHockey A desperate PM leading a bitterly divided party resorting to base politics of fear and division seeking to distract from ALP woes]
marky marky@61
Shortens only chance to fulfill his ambitions is from opposition. He can never achieve that ambition whilst his party is in Government.
[and the Unions will be stuffed totally]
Tell the union leaders … oh, don’t bother as they support the PM whereas Rudd has no time for unions at all.
GG
From the other thread. Thank you for the compliment. 🙂
[More fantasy leader from the LNP types who have no policies they can defend]
They’re amazing aren’t they?
It drives them crazy that Labor supporters still support the PM, elected three times to Rudd’s one, in power for longer, defeating all comers.
They just can’t stand it!
[Gillard’s comments on abortion and the Coalition are desperate and offensive.]
I really don’t understand what is so offensive or desperate about what she said. While the transcript of the speech isn’t available yet, this is what OM is reporting:
[”We don’t want to live in an Australia where abortion again becomes the political plaything of men who think they know better”]
Do JBishop or Hockey not agree with this statement of the bleeding obvious? Or maybe they really would prefer to live in a country where women’s fertility does indeed become the plaything of men who think they know better?
[All the Coalition buzzwords coming out from these two …]
You can be sure that Hockey and Bishop have been given their News Ltd talking points to give the impression they are setting the agenda.
confessions
They don’t want you to understand their remarks. They just want their favourite words such as “desperate” to get another run around.
What does the blue tie signify? I understood Jesuits wear white shirts.
Here is some news fro you:
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans 4h
Oh dear, after the dodgy 58/42 #Newspoll on #NewsCorpse and #Leadershits – latest Essential has Labor’s PV +1 (to 36%) yes +1 not -10
On a completely different note. It is amazing how “small town” the USA is. Adelaide would rank No. 9 largest city in the US !! Adelaide has more people than Detroit and Las Vegas combined. Sydney , Melbourne , Brisvegas and Perth would rank No 2 , 3 , 4 and 5.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0763098.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Australia_by_population
Maybe this is why the LNP don’t want the debate
[Mr Abbott, who is an ardent Catholic, once described abortion as “the easy way out”.
“To a pregnant 14-year-old struggling to grasp what’s happening, for example, a senior student with a whole life mapped out or a mother already failing to cope under difficult circumstance, abortion is the easy way out,” he said in a speech in 2004 when he was the federal health minister.
He also said in the speech that the abortion rate was a “national tragedy” and abortion was an issue that was “morally black and white”.
However, Mr Abbott has recently distanced himself from his previous controversial stance.
“I didn’t express it as well as I could have or should have,” Mr Abbott told Channel Nine in March.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-11/gillard-says-coalition-will-banish-women-from-politics/4747138
[On a completely different note. It is amazing how “small town” the USA is. Adelaide would rank No. 9 largest city in the US !! Adelaide has more people than Detroit and Las Vegas combined. Sydney , Melbourne , Brisvegas and Perth would rank No 2 , 3 , 4 and 5.]
And we’re going up the list of gun ownership with bullet.
[Shortens only chance to fulfill his ambitions is from opposition. He can never achieve that ambition whilst his party is in Government.]
Hence why he needs Gillard to be in charge so they can lose the election. Then once she’s dumped the factions will need to back Shorten into power because most of Shortens opponents will be wiped out at the election.
OoO Labor Party is just like watching the Game of Thrones!
[Adelaide has more people than Detroit and Las Vegas combined. Sydney , Melbourne , Brisvegas and Perth would rank No 2 , 3 , 4 and 5.]
USA cities generally use a very narrow definition of their populations – i.e they don’t count the greater metropolitan area, only the inner city.
Where will the two women to accuse him of rape:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/opinion/brooks-the-solitary-leaker.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
Tom Hawkins
You’ve reminded me of T Jones being “smart” last night and accusing Craig Emmerson of using Fitzgibbon’s talking points. Craig furious.
I wish someone would take Jones aside, give him a good thumping, and then patiently explain that he’s supposed to be the facilitator of a panel, not the prosecuting attorney.
lizzie:
Ah yes, I forgot they believe we women aren’t capable of thinking for ourselves. 🙂
“Yessiree Bob”..: Nosirree Bob…Nursery Bob?
Abbott
[“I didn’t express it as well as I could have or should have,” Mr Abbott told Channel Nine in March.]
Well let’s see how well he expresses it if serious questioned today.
Cut and run big time is my bet.
Tony’s covered…
[“As they stand in the loungeroom thinking about household finances, while they’re doing the ironing…”]
poroti:
When Labor was elected in 2007 it set about reversing the aid funding clause which ruled out funds for terminations, which the Howard govt had introduced. Obama did the same when he was first elected.
I’m sure there would’ve been comments by Abbott back then about it all.
Tom Hawkins
“Seriously questioned”?
When/who?
who is shorten? who is howes? self interest or constituency? time for a paradigm shift
Will we see a Women for Abbott campaign? Or has that been left to his wife and daughters?
The abortion remarks today were rather stupid for several reasons:
Firstly, it looks desperate. I know some of you will think it’s a master stroke trying to wedge Abbott. It’s not. Everybody saw it for what it was and, unlike the misogyny speech, this has been received by the non-party hack community as pathetic, desperate and a little offensive.
Secondly, it does her no favour with the social conservative vote that she’s tried to court with her positions on issues like same sex marriage. To those social conservatives who vote based on issues, she’s just told them she’s the candidate for abortion. Now, if she had a reputation as a social progressive, that would be a fine wedge to play but people who vote based on social issues tend to be purists – the ship on her being portrayed as a social progressive has long passed.
Thirdly, and this is the part I hate, by bringing abortion into the debate, she’s turning an election that she will most probably lose into a referendum on the topic. She goes to the polls and gets thrashed, Abbott can say “I ran as the anti-abortion guy, therefore I have a mandate to limit it.”
Just desperate, stupid and myopic. I don’t care what the echo chamber here thinks. In the real world, she’s becoming increasingly isolated.
BK
I did say ‘if’
I think people here seriously believe that Tony Abbott having religion and values based on religion is some big negative for him and Julia Gillard’s atheist feminism some great strength for her.
You are all completely out of touch. Most voters are not like you are. You are elites, nerds and wankers. Real people don’t hold it against someone for being a christian and struggling with their conscience on issues of sexual morality. You all need to get out more and leave your protective bubbles.
Tom
We live in hope!
joe carli@85
The way I see it, only a complete idiot would rather see an Abbott government then see Rudd return as PM. How say you ?
Absolutely correct Carey Moore. You’re brave to call it for what it is around here.
[I think people here seriously believe that Tony Abbott having religion and values based on religion is some big negative for him and Julia Gillard’s atheist feminism some great strength for her.]
I think they can be. It’s just when it’s tacked on at the end like this it’s clear it’s a desperate attempt at a wedge.
[ I know some of you will think it’s a master stroke trying to wedge Abbott.]
No, it is a legitimate question that was of interest to the audience she was addressing today.
The ABC’s Emma Griffiths did admit that
[The launch was closed to the media]
but don’t let that enter into your argument as it might tip it to a more balanced position.
Should also add that those who actually let their position on abortion determine their vote have already made up their mind. Nobody to this point has been unclear on Abbott’s position on the topic.