The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south and pushing the Canberra electorate north of the lake to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement to slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000.
The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, serving as Lionel Murphy’s successor as Attorney-General in 1975. He was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.
Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was won easily for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 caused McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he secured in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career which began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, and held the seat safely thereafter.
In February 2010, both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not contest the election due later that year. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for both seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s win was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left would support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), and the Right would back the Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left, in Fraser. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Tom Sefton, a Commonwealth public servant who has served in Afghanistan as a commando officer. Sefton polled a respectable 4.2% as a candidate for Molonglo at the October 2012 Australian Capital Territory election.
Not noted above are the reports this morning that the Libs and Indies will not launch a No Confidence motion should Rudd be returned. That will allay any possible constitutional confusion.
blackburnpseph
Newsltd knows fully well that the election is september 14th
and Abbott was never ever going to get support
murdoch’s for rudd.
rudd, rudd, rudd.
every flamin’ where….
leadershit here. leadershit there.
acres of print. soundbites, soundbites…..
tell me something.
if rudd is the answer …..
if rudd is the one …. to save Labor
if rudd is the one …. to beat abbott
if rudd is the only one to do this.
why does murdoch give him so much space?
huh?
what’s murdoch pushing for rudd, when abbott is his boy.
cos, y’know …..
‘she won’t go away.’
‘she won’t go away ….. ‘
‘why won’t she just go away ?’
why won’t she just lie down …… ?’
….’and go away …. ?’
So.
rudd, rudd, rudd.
they CAN make HIM go away.
But.
Not.
Julia Gillard.
…. and you know.
Julia Gillard……
is going to debate
with Tony Abbott.
Tony’s eyes will bleed.
The only was the independents would likely swap sides, if there was an leadership change in the liberal party
If the liberal party was fully interested in governing for the country, they would have a new leader by now
[Being on a hit list is good for the bird because people will shoot them. Jeez, who the hell votes for these morons?!]
Remarkably few people do – the micro parties are a scourge on democracy – a minimum vote of say 5% would separate out the political sheep from goats.
The liberal party is not ready to government in the year 2013 or 2014,2015,2016
The liberal party is not ready for government in the year 2013 or 2014,2015,2016
WHAT can one say about The Age?
I heard about “The Editorial” first on the morning ABC news bulletin, which gave it top headline billing.
Who or what is “The Age”?
A tabloid newspaper, part of a once prosperous empire now going broke due to mismanagement, falling customer patronage, non-existent customer-support (when was the last time any Age journalist got involved in a debate, even on the rare occasions when they open up a column for reader comments?), tanking share price, an obsession with sackings, retrenchments and cutbacks, a prededlection to piss off half its readership by telling them they are fools and a slavish devotion to an outdated business model bound by an anachronistic means of production that they have confused with what might laughingly be termed a “mission statement”, were it possible to call making shit up, spreading gossip, bootstrapping stories, employing preening prima donnas to interview other preening prima donnas, laziness, an inflated sense of its own self-importance, a bemusing line in hypocrisy, a tendency to overpay its board while they send their company and shareholders’ funds on a one-way trip to perdition, a “mission”.
That Fairfax, or one of their impotent organs, should have the temerity to call anyone else’s business model, governance and leadership inept, simply because they, as a news organization, prefer to repeatedly and wrongly cover non-existent scuttlebutt time after time, calling it “news” is an egregious insult to anyone with half a brain.
There is only one thing to be thankful for: Fairfax have nailed their colors to the wall and are now fair game. They can never again claim impartiality (even in jest). Let them rot, cut them off, do the decent thing and take them out the back and shoot them, slit their throats, push them onto their own sword, kick them to death, paint targets on their heads, stuff them into a chaff bag, take them out to sea and drown them. Then sprinkle their dead body with old salami sandwiches. That should be worth a tittering op-ed or two.
The government would be doing them a favour.
No need to go into their arguments in detail, except to say that for a newspaper which refuses to print the very news they are accusing the Prime Minister of being unable to provide, in favour of innuendo, giggling “color” pieces (does anyone read Tony Wright or Jacquiline Maley’s rubbish?), endless and completely incorrect speculation, ersatz prediction of imminent doom that has never happened and pompous editorialization and opinionation, defies the word “irony”.
Once upon a time a thundering editorial from The Age might be an event in itself, but no longer. Their thunder will be certain to be drowned out by the raucous laughter of their few remaining readers combining to produce the biggest WTF? in Melbourne’s history.
Don’t let the door hit your arse on the way out, Fairfax.
[If the liberal party was fully interested in governing for the country, they would have a new leader by now]
Why would they need one? They are well ahead in the polls and unlike the rabble on the other side there have not been several “challenges” to leadership over the past three years. At present from Labor, we have the possibility that there might be a new leader by next weekend. Unless he actually dies, Tony Abbott is gaurunteed to be Liberal leader next weekend.
[the micro parties are a scourge on democracy]
I completely agree.
[55
Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 9:16 am | PERMALINK
If the liberal party was fully interested in governing for the country, they would have a new leader by now]
If labor was governing for the country, Kevin would not have been removed by Gillard because the poor old hacks found him hard to work with.
BB @ 59
It is some sort of inverted logic that they are supporting the Labor Party. It was probably road tested somewhere in Melbourne’s Inner North and they thought it sounded OK – but in the wider world it probably won’t carry much weight.
blackburnpseph
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 9:21 am | PERMALINK
If the liberal party was fully interested in governing for the country, they would have a new leader by now
Why would they need one? They are well ahead in the polls
———–
The pro coalition media polls are not reality ,
as state and federal oppositions found out no good leading the media opinon polls , when the public wakes up on the only day which counts election day
And decides if the alternative has more to offer then the incumbent
Abbott lost it in 2010, when any other liberal leader would have likely won
Abbott will lose it in 2013 , repeat of 2010
BK @19 – I think that the linked article describes the Abbott Coalition to a ‘T’. I think these paragraphs are especially apt:
“They seek to divide us, one from another. Their stock-in-trade is the promotion of “downward envy”, the perception that someone below you on the ladder of life is getting an unfair boost up.
Their message is never hope, but fear. They exaggerate the problems, but they are too shy to reveal their solutions. A cynic might think that’s because (a) they don’t have any, or more likely (b) they realise people would find their solutions unpalatable.
People who are thinking of voting Liberal because they don’t like Julia Gillard should have a think about point (b).
rummel
We are in 2013 , reason why newsltd/ abbott coalition is pushing to get rid of Gillard it seems the person who they want is like them , have not moved on and caught up with the present
[Abbott will lose it in 2013 , repeat of 2010]
Your prediction for the Northern Tablelands by election was …
ah yes, a Labor win.
What was their vote – under 10% …
Need I say more?
morning
Why is the msm so impaitent? In 84 days, the electorate will decide. Going by the current polls, PMJG and Labor will be kicked out of office.
Abbott will do better then Hewson in the history of Australian elections
Losing the unloseable election not once but twice
steve
Mike Seccombe is a very good journo.
Remember what they once were like?
blackburnpseph
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 9:29 am | PERMALINK
Abbott will lose it in 2013 , repeat of 2010
Your prediction for the Northern Tablelands by election was …
————
I was going on opinion polling, do i need to say more
how they compare to the actual thing
bbp
[Not noted above are the reports this morning that the Libs and Indies will not launch a No Confidence motion should Rudd be returned. That will allay any possible constitutional confusion.]
So the Libs support Rudd returning. Wow! That’s a strong message about who they think might beat them. 😆
[66
Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 9:29 am | PERMALINK
rummel
We are in 2013 , reason why newsltd/ abbott coalition is pushing to get rid of Gillard it seems the person who they want is like them , have not moved on and caught up with the present]
Stop peddling tosh. Libs don’t want to remove Gillard and why would they now? The voters are going to do the heavy lifting and remove Gillard and Labor in a huge clean out in two and a bit months. Lots of people are going to be upset if they don’t get to vote Gillard out and watch her concession speech.
[Malcolm Farr @farrm51 16m
the idea Tony Abbott had to give permission for a Labor leadership change is one of the most original political concepts I have come across.
WTF?]
This is from a Simon Benson “exclusive” in the Telegraph which claims
[TONY Abbott and several key independents, including the Greens, would not stand in the way of a Kevin Rudd comeback – with the Opposition Leader ruling out sponsoring a no-confidence motion in the government if the Labor leadership changes next week.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/labor-leadership-hurdle-gone-kevin-rudd-has-the-all-clear/story-fnii5s3x-1226667837843#ixzz2WtdqSPBY
This frenzied activity by Murdoch and Fairfax (Age editorial and Carlton) for leadership change is extraordinary. Murdoch’s position is well known but what does Fairfax have to gain from this – a smart Fairfax management would try to gain readership from those holding the opposite viewpoint to Murdoch but of course we know Fairfax is controlled by the pilot who is intent in crashing the plane full speed into the ground.
rummel
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 9:35 am | PERMALINK
66
Meguire Bob
Stop peddling tosh. Libs don’t want to remove Gillard and why would they now?
————
Why has news ltd/abbott coalition pushing for a change ever since after september 2010
I have a message for the MSM.
“DO YOUR F***ING JOB!!”
Mike Carlton reckons better for PMJG to quit than face the electorate and an unprecedented wipeout. Sigh……….
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/with-regret-gillard-must-go-for-nations-sake-20130621-2onnn.html
There is an adage in politics that governments win one term too many – and then go down in a massive heap at the next election – as Kenneally, Bligh and Keating all know to their cost.
Should Labor – by some miracle – win the next election, they will be in that category. Whoever wins in 2013 will most likely face some serious economic challenges in the next term. Should the Libs win, they will no doubt sheet some of the blame back to Labor but will also have to take some responsibility. Should Labor win, they will have nowhere to hide – and should Labor win in September – the votes given will be grudging at best – the polls of the last three years have shown the government to be unpopular at best – that unpopularity will return with a vengeance post election – and the polls now will look like a picnic compared to what Labor may face in 2016 should they be returned in September.
BK
The msm have not been doing their job for years, they are hardly going to start now.
Lizzie @ 72
It seems that at best, Rudd would save the furniture.
bbp
And since when are the msm concerned about Labor saving their furniture?
[Why has news ltd/abbott coalition pushing for a change ever since after september 2010]
Destabilisation of labor. Though you don’t want to destabilise to much and put in a popular leader like Kevin.
I like how journalist lie when they say people stopped listening to Gillard
every day people complain about what Gillard says or the sound of her voice , so if they stopped listening what are people doing complaining
the only people havent listen too is abbott
the media protects him
rummel
show me a true reality poll , not an media agenda opinion poll which gives the true indication
rummel
As the old saying in sport , do what the opposition doesnt want you to do.
Newsltd/abbott coalition wants a change
Labor keeps the current pm and labor will retain government on and after september 14th 2013
Mike Carlton is right.
Nothing will save the ALP from defeat but a more ‘popular’ or at least less loathed leader could save the senate from the Monkey grip.
Abbot as PM is bad enough but Abbott with a majority in both houses is not the sort of legacy Gillard wants to author.
[I was going on opinion polling, do i need to say more]
If you think that I would believe that, you are an even greater idiot than I took you for.
[84
Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 9:42 am | PERMALINK
rummel
show me a true reality poll , not an media agenda opinion poll which gives the true indication]
The NT bye election the other week that trounced you vibe and poll conspiracy issues lol. It’s the vibe 🙂
Given how much we hate the mainstream media here, and loath murdoch’s influence, it is very funny that the media sees what labor needs to do but some collective insanity is keeping the caucus from doing it.
[Labor keeps the current pm and labor will retain government on and after september 14th 2013]
Ok MB, I will trust your Vibe again:)
[at least less loathed leader]
Unfortunately that it what we have come down to in this country – the voters on September 14 will be voting for the leader they loathe least. Sad but true.
The pro coalition media is labor opposition also .
If labor is anywhere near losing the election , what have they got to lose by enforcing the acma do their job and take the license away form the lying pro coalition media tycoons
[The liberal party is not ready for government in the year 2013 or 2014,2015,2016
But yet they are almost certain to have control of both houses, something Labor hasn’t had since … wait I can’t remember that far back.
The pro coalition media are not obeying the media’s own code of ethics
So the acme should act and punish them
Wewantpaul
show me a reality poll, not an poll which is a fantasy poll
So after fighting Abbott as well as Rudd’s little band of white-anters for 3 years, JG is supposed to stand back and hand the baton to Rudd. I notice that none of the media is chastising Rudd and telling him to get behind her.
And the media cries “boohoo, we wish you’d let us talk about policy.”
Leigh Sales 7.30 i.v. is a prime example of media doublespeak.
Abbott, Gillard, Rudd
The least loathed is Rudd.
Go with that.
I got evidence of latest Australian federal election poll which is reality
Confessions drew my attention to:
[Washington: In perhaps the most startling example of the recent advances of the gay rights movement in America, one of the nation’s most prominent religious opponents of homosexuality has dissolved itself, issuing a long and detailed apology for the harm it caused during its 37 years of existence.]
As someone said in the article, no apology Exodus could make could be enough to wipe away the harm they did. That said, ceasing to harm others and seeking to subvert the efforts of others still harming others is an excellent first step in preventing future harm and probably as much as they could now do.
I liked his comment on gay marriage — that he wasn’t sure what to think but that nobody needed to have his opinion anyway and that people had a right to live their lives as they saw fit.
I’m not so churlish that I can’t acknowledge a belated attempt to step back from hypocrisy and homophobia. Better late than never.
Rosemore or less
Turnbull is more popular then abbott