The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south and pushing the Canberra electorate north of the lake to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement to slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000.
The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, serving as Lionel Murphy’s successor as Attorney-General in 1975. He was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.
Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was won easily for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 caused McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he secured in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career which began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, and held the seat safely thereafter.
In February 2010, both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not contest the election due later that year. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for both seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s win was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left would support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), and the Right would back the Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left, in Fraser. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Tom Sefton, a Commonwealth public servant who has served in Afghanistan as a commando officer. Sefton polled a respectable 4.2% as a candidate for Molonglo at the October 2012 Australian Capital Territory election.
[If Shorten has aspirations of leadership, he needs to show some backbone. He should come out publicly, tomorrow morning, and make it clear that Gillard needs to move aside in the interests of the party and the country. If he sees himself as a leader, he needs to show leadership in the crisis the party now finds itself in.]
I agree 100%.
If Shorten keeps supporting Gillard then he should get some of the blame for the election loss and that should disqualify him from being Opposition Leader.
[womble
Posted Sunday, June 23, 2013 at 9:54 pm | PERMALINK
PM Live saying Chris Kenny earlier said Newspoll will have Labor’s primary vote with a 2 in front of it]
these #NewsCorpse shills are milking every scintilla out of their commissioned poll. Murdoch must be beside himself that a smallish investment in an outfit which polls 1000 or so each fortnight has given his organs so much palava.
And it allows him to subborn our elected governments. Of all persuasions.
Disappointed that so many on this blog are blind to what they are allowing our nation to become.
[1745
This little black duck
Unless Labor can rebuild its PV, it will certainly lose by a very wide margin. I think that qualifies as a reason for defeat.
I think you just did a null sequitur. We were discussing reasons, not outcomes.]
Are suggesting tautology?
Then we should ask instead….how can Labor reclaim its PV, for this is the key to the election?
ON like Donky Kong.
I wonder how low it is?
26?
Kevin Bonham – thanks for the reply, it’s appreciated.
I will admit that I am basing some of my skepticism about Reachtel (and other polling) on the fact that they have pre-excluded me from their polling.
My landline is for internet only so that’s strike one, but if I did have a handset attached, or they were calling mobiles, I would hang up as soon as I worked out it was a robocall.
Now, of course that’s anecdotal, but I’m still suspicious whenever the system that a company uses means that any given member of the population is systematically excluded.
And I’m pretty sure I’m not so special as to be unique, and less and less unique as time goes by.
Anyway, I don’t doubt that the various polling organisations are watching developments in this space closely.
It just annoys me that Reachtel can show up and say “hey we can do this cheaply and quickly!” and get attention from MSM outlets with sensational headline numbers from (what I still consider) an untested method that I have reservations about. A bit more “ok, here’s some more data, but we need to take it with a large grain of salt” is in order as far as I’m concerned.
Kevin Bonham points out on twitter that if it is true that Labor’s primary is in the 20s, that would be the worst Newspoll primary vote for Labor since last July.
Well I’d be looking at 58-59/42-41 2PP in Newspoll.
But the real figures that I want to observe are the “if Rudd were leader” data 😎
[Joe Sheppard @JoShep40 11m
@TheStooge2 @independentaus I can see Simon Benson in Abbott’s Press Office, it was a very intimate affair
Details
Joe Sheppard @JoShep40 12m
@GrogsGamut I just saw Simon Benson, Peta Credlin & Tony Abbott having a cosy dinner and getting busted by Swan, Conroy, Feneey & Mitchell
Details]
this must be the weekly strategy meeting between #NewsCorpse and Abbott’s office. Now so blatant they are doing it out in the open.
Sprocket – correct me if I’m wrong but this a blog about polls???
Does Newspoll even do alternative leader polls?
briefly:
My own view is that the defeat will be significantly greater if the party changes again. It would simply compound the perception of instability, flakiness and desperation.
John Faulkner is the man that should tap Gillard in my view.
Is the ALP going for the Anna Bligh strategy or the KK strategy?
[1728
matt31
@briefly 1710
I think you make some fair points, but I also think you make the same mistake as many on here, and that is, underestimating the feelings of the electorate towards Gillard. The electorate’s opinion of Gillard is, imho, a far bigger part of Labor’s problem than many here want to admit.]
I do not underestimate this at all, sad to report. I admire JG and believe she did the country a great service. But she cannot possibly win from here, imho.
I think unity of purpose is absolutely essential to victory. And I think that credibility with the electorate is also essential…and Labor has very little of either right now. It is well past time to act.
[Does Newspoll even do alternative leader polls?]
Yes. I can remember being asked about alternate opposition leaders during the dying days of Brendan Nelson’s leadership.
Cheers Shows
[briefly:
My own view is that the defeat will be significantly greater if the party changes again. It would simply compound the perception of instability, flakiness and desperation.]
You are completely underestimating how unpopular Gillard is in the community. Get out and talk to more people.
“Tap”
Has so many connotations.
bluepill
then we agree entirely.
tom paine is wrong on this point – there will little gain or learnt in a loss.
do you think some senior figures dont entirely care – they can see a life beyond politics anyway. hate to say that
briefly,
I’m saying I asked for reasons.
Should / would /could is the lifeblood of PB but I don’t engage with that.
I’m happy to have insiders’ views of what is going on inside Labor caucus. Just don’t give me speculation: I hear, I see and I opine, to my self mostly.
gloryc
Given that Nielsen contained questions on if Rudd were leader, I’m sure Newspoll will follow suit, especially with leadership the only issue at present.
So we get a shit Newspoll which comes on the back of shit every other poll.
My view doesn’t change. Changing leaders like you’re changing underwear compounds the instability perception.
Will the ALP have to pay people to work on polling booths?
pb seems more agreeable and agrred than it has for a very long time
a red drop for victory
[Has so many connotations.]
Only to the crude and sexist.
confessions.
‘perception’???????
Instability: Real.
Flakiness: Constantly.
Desperation If there is anyone in the ALP not desperate now… then they shouldn’t be there.
No, these are real problems and no leadership solution is taking it away.
The ALP has as much unity as Ireland in the 70’s.
Maybe even that is an overstatement in the current climate.
[Will the ALP have to pay people to work on polling booths?]
No, only the Liberals need to do this at every election.
Normally they hire young women.
If we do have a leadership spill this week I hope that “Beware the Supermoon!” will enter the lexicon as the antipodean version of “Beware the Ides of March”.
Confessions – the ALP hasn’t changed leader for three years to the day.
[My view doesn’t change. Changing leaders like you’re changing underwear compounds the instability perception.]
You are completely underestimating how unpopular Gillard is in the community. Get out and talk to more people.
The Lib-Ruddite slobber on the ground here is palpable….need one of those wet floor signs for health n safety
No, if we have a leadership spill it’ll all be about Diogenes going on holidays to Europe.
[Kevin Bonham points out on twitter that if it is true that Labor’s primary is in the 20s, that would be the worst Newspoll primary vote for Labor since last July.]
But but we still have
two years to turn it around… six months to turn it around two and a half months… aww shit!It was just the media, Rudd or the minority government responsible for the failure of the Gillard pragmatists, but now it’s the polls that are wrong. The degree of self-delusion among the more agoraphobic tribalists never ceases to amaze.
Gah! Strike tag fail. Sorry everyone!
Confessions @1775
I was actually thinking metal work but now that you mention it thanks for nothing.
[1761
confessions
briefly:
My own view is that the defeat will be significantly greater if the party changes again. It would simply compound the perception of instability, flakiness and desperation.]
It depends entirely on the language that would be used. In any case, the Government has to lay very convincing claim to be in control of events…to be in touch, to be reasoned, cohesive, calm, capable, forceful, and to be able to inspire some sense of unity.
This is about power and its adroit use.
C C
They leave them on the mountain at Everest.
CC
[Will the ALP have to pay people to work on polling booths?]
What, the way Sophie Mirabella has had to for the last three elections?
[Confessions – the ALP hasn’t changed leader for three years to the day.]
And? What is your point?
Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence…
geoffrey
Yes, I take your points, all of them.
The ALP will learn much from this and needs to, otherwise that meeting outside under a tree at Barcaldan was a bit pointless, don’t you think?
I know Simon doesn’t care. Like many, he just sees it all as a bad dream but is pissed that he doesn’t seem to be waking up!
The flotsam corflute candy from 2007 won’t care. They had lives before politics and their families will be glad to have them back.
There are the ‘heads of the families’ that won’t even mind ‘draining the pool’, since this will give more seats to parachute into. Coalition blow ins will have no better a time of it that the class of Kev did. So there are plenty of safe ALP seats to retake and more than a few marginals that will bob, notwithstanding the sophomore surge that Peter likes to go on about (as if he discovered the phenomenon!!).
No, this is Australia. Bushfires and floods are painful, traumatic and necessary cycles on our land and in our politics. Both sides have had their fair share.
Its fun watching twitter updates on Snowden.
US media breakfast programmes starting soon. Expect a lot of reaction 👿
JV – I suspect the lure of the summit will override rational decision making especially in the low oxygen delusional mentality already existing.
Connie
If you hate Rudd so much you should let him take the hit.
If you love Julia so much you should want her to avoid the most humiliating of defeats.
Heavens above if Rudd, who can campaign and cut through, happened to win the thing. Or do you just want a
PM for at the very least 6 years?
briefly:
An election date has already been announced. What narrative (for want of a better word) can possibly be used to justify a leadership change other than poor polling? In which case, this makes my point for me: desperation and clinging to the last vestiges of a possible election win.
It won’t work.
Confessions – you made the comment about changing leaders like underwear – which implies regularly and often
[Will the ALP have to pay people to work on polling booths?]
My observation is that the ALP is getting a surge of volunteers, members and donations. That’s not necessarily a good sign, of course – the same thing happened in 1975. But it does suggest there will be no shortage of booth-workers.
Wonder how people would react if Labor booted Rudd out of the party??? – would definitely stop any future leadership speculation 🙂
Centre;
I have never hated anyone in my life.
I’m sorry, but you just don’t seem to understand what this is all about. Go back to my comment earlier about ‘so the party changes leaders, and now what?’
I’m yet to hear a convincing or plausible outcome from the leadership change now crowd.