The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south and pushing the Canberra electorate north of the lake to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement to slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000.
The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, serving as Lionel Murphy’s successor as Attorney-General in 1975. He was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.
Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was won easily for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 caused McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he secured in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career which began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, and held the seat safely thereafter.
In February 2010, both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not contest the election due later that year. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for both seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s win was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left would support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), and the Right would back the Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left, in Fraser. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Tom Sefton, a Commonwealth public servant who has served in Afghanistan as a commando officer. Sefton polled a respectable 4.2% as a candidate for Molonglo at the October 2012 Australian Capital Territory election.
Coalition supporters
This is the only correct poll which is reality and still stands
http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByPartyByVoteType-15508-NAT.htm
Note that the blowtorch is being applied to Shorten’s belly, not Gillards. This is consistent with where the actual power lies on one side of the split.
lol compact crank
posted similar thing
guytaur @147 Why?
Crank
It answers your question
Superannuation – For people earning less than $37,000 we’ll tax what they put into super at 15 per cent.
Catherine Deveny – a very good reason not to read the Guardian.
She is a disgusting piece of work.
The liberal party vote around Australia is a bit over 30%
This little black duck
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 10:46 am | Permalink
Superannuation – For people earning less than $37,000 we’ll tax what they put into super at 15 per cent.
———————————————————
even though this is a higher rate than the tax they pay on their weekly earnings
ducky @156 – like it always has been and then there has been a 15% rebate on withdrawal but now that superannuation pensions aren’t taxed that rebate is not needed.
blackburnpseph @ 78
As I’ve been saying, there are worse things than losing elections.
I’m struggling to work out the cognitive disconnection here amongst Rudd supporters – on one hand, he needs to come back to ‘save the furniture’, on the other, Labor needs to clean out the ‘dead wood’ and rejuvenate.
Surely – if party reform, lessening the grip of the unions, getting rid of dead wood, etc etc – are what those supporting Rudd want to see happen, an electoral rout is an easier way to achieve this than a Ruddstoration which sees the party scrape across the line?
I disagree, however, with the idea that a win by Gillard in September would lead to a loss at the next election. Howard won elections by the skin of his teeth, only to increase his majority at the subsequent one.
I personally believe a returned Gillard government is the best long term option for both the country and the party and will be working as hard as I can to ensure that.
j.v.
What logic do you base this comment on?
“@SummersAnne: @latikambourke Why is this a “gender inquiry”? Surely inquiry into rank discrimination against pregnant or on mat leave women? Long overdue”
Does Abbott really want to control the Senate?
Just how irresponsible and impractical would it be to abolish the carbon tax?
Abbott would be condemned by other nations around the world who are implementing carbon pricing.
No, Abbott needs opposition parties to stop him from pretending to abolish the carbon tax.
guytaur @155 – how does the Guardian answer the question about how many, if any, conservative opinion writers the Age has?
It doesn’t.
Next you’ll be saying Green Left Weekly is an answer to the question about the Guardian’s conservative political commentators.
Broede Carmody @BroedeCarmody 2m
RT @bkjabour: I don’t know what I’m more taken aback by. The Age’s editorial or that people seem to have actually read an editorial.
Peter Brent @mumbletwits 28m
ABC Radio reports Artie Sinodinos doesn’t think a Labor leadership change likely. Yes but what does Chris Pyne think?
[even though this is a higher rate than the tax they pay on their weekly earnings]
Which is around nine per cent.
Crank
Fairfax is a mirror of News Limited. Guardian is not.
That is the point.
Centre
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 10:51 am | Permalink
Does Abbott really want to control the Senate?
Just how irresponsible and impractical would it be to abolish the carbon tax?
Abbott would be condemned by other nations around the world who are implementing carbon pricing.
No, Abbott needs opposition parties to stop him from pretending to abolish the carbon tax.
—————————————————–
I don’t think he is that smart. If he doesn’t control the Senate and can’t get the legislation through he will call a Double Dissolution election
Zoomster
You are quite correct in identifying a dilemma
While I want a Rudd return in order to prevent Abbott getting control of the Senate, the downside is that the much needed clear out of party dead wood and rethink of the ALP, purpose, ideology and support base will not happen.
Yes I am conflicted.
Centre – “condemned by other nations” – what like China for suppression of human rights and invading Tibet?
All those non-signatory nations to a whole range of UN Conventions? Oh, how they suffer under the condemnation!
@167
I agree with Arthur.
Gillard says she wont quit and I believe her.
Rudd said he won’t challenge and knows if he does he’ll be lambasted from pillar to post for breaking his commitment – the adds write themselves.
Suck it up ALP – smoke ’em if you got ’em because this bird is going down.
Any chance a Messianic Third Way will rise from the ashes – Melissa Parke (Marketing 101 – the NSW Kenneally option)
The best outcome for the election, with the exception of a Gillard win which can’t happen, would be for a Rudd victory.
The second best is for a massacre delivering Abbott control of the Senate.
Abbott will then be forced to do what he pretends he will do which could result in the reinstatement of a Labor government sooner rather than later.
[If he doesn’t control the Senate and can’t get the legislation through he will call a Double Dissolution election]
People just love going to an election booth on a Saturday. Can’t get enough of it.
OK, I have just discovered there is a town in Victoria called Pimpinio.
Seriously, why wouldn’t you live there??
Thanks for making my morning Bob 🙂
Ducky @168 which is OK as a stand alone figure but one really should look at the total net tax and transfer payments that they receive and you’ll realise that at that level of income they are significantly net receivers of taxpayer money.
[guytaur
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 7:32 am | Permalink
Good Morning
Rummel
Thanks for proving the point we know Liberals have all those attack adverts lined up for Rudd]
Maybe so, But it will be child’s play in comparison with what they have got lined up for JG, starting with THE LIE (an accusation I have never agreed with BTW).
[150
Compact Crank
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 10:44 am | PERMALINK
Right
Just for Meguire Bob
I am commissioning a REALITY POLL.
I have instructed the Australian Electoral Commission to conduct a REALITY POLL on Saturday 14th September, 2013. (Although that may change with REALITY).
I’ll get back to you with the results.]
Lol lol
Will not satisfy bob because he will claim it is a news limited reality poll 🙂
[George Megalogenis @GMegalogenis 51s
“We are not saying Ms Gillard should stand aside because of Labor’s policies…” The Age may have written its own obituary right there.]
Crank
Other nations around the world will expect Australia to make their contribution.
Is that too unreasonable a request?
The world will think Abbott is world class fool for repealing carbon pricing.
guytaur @169 – “Mirror”
Absolute, utter and total crap.
The Age is campaigning against Abbott and the Coalition. That is why they are calling for Gillard to fall.
In no way does the political opinion published in the Age or Fairfax papers mirror the Australian or New Limited.
Darn
You have short memory. Start with DPM and Treasurer under Rudd and Gillard as PM statement
[Rudd does not have Labor values]
There are others. More damaging than what you are talkng about. Remember politicians are on bottom of trust list for a reason
[The Age is campaigning against Abbott and the Coalition. That is why they are calling for Gillard to fall.]
Thanks, I couldn’t have summed up the absurdity of their position any better than that.
ducky @175 – especially after they given a new government a mandate that the opposition, recently turfed out because they were hated, is blocking the will of the people.
Bring it on.
“@beneltham: BREAKING: Gillard to blame for disappointing lack of biscuits in The Age tea room”
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 11:00 am | PERMALINK
OK, I have just discovered there is a town in Victoria called Pimpinio.
Seriously, why wouldn’t you live there??]
When I drove through there a few years ago I turned to my wife and said “There is another town just down the road called Prostitutio”. 🙂
“@GMegalogenis: . @FrancisWebster Serious media should not be in the business of making poll-based leadership recommendations to any government in any day.”
Abbott on 24 now
Centre – I’m all for making reasonable contributions – at the moment it is not reasonable or fair.
guytaur
The switch to Rudd is gaining momentum 😉 it will be in full flight by Monday/Tuesday 😎
Are The Age really going to start doing their jobs properly if Rudd is PM?
centre dream on
None of the noise signifies anything. Despite what some thinks its up to caucus
Crank
They had an agreement. An agreement that was backed by Labor + 50% of the Coalition.
But that wasn’t good enough for the Lunatics which have cost the Labor Party two prime ministers 😡
deflationite
You had time to say something as you drove through it?>
It must be bigger than I thought.
“@GMegalogenis: . @FrancisWebster The Age thinks it is doing Labor a favour. That’s the problem right there — media assuming the role of player.”
Centre @192
Momentum – you need mass to have momentum. Rudd’s courage has about as much mass as a free electron. He doesn’t have the balls and has wedged himself – missed his opportunity that Crean set up for him.
Smartest Guy in the Room – apparently.
Abbott’s Parental Leave Plan will cost businesses more that the current carbon price. That cost will be passed on to consumers. Banks predict a 0.5% rise in interest rates. One major retailer has stated it will cost them $40 million a year. Inflation and cost of living will rise.
As inflation rises the RBA will look at increasing interest rates – so consumers will get a double hit
[RT @bkjabour: I don’t know what I’m more taken aback by. The Age’s editorial or that people seem to have actually read an editorial.]
The reading figures don’t matter as much as the laundering effect.