Rudd 57, Gillard 45

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.

UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,091 comments on “Rudd 57, Gillard 45”

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  3. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:15 pm | PERMALINK
    Weren’t you claiming it was sexist to not use the term “Prime Minister” when referring to Gillard

    No. Never.]

    You never complained about people not referring to Gillard as “Prime Minister”?

  4. [Treasurer Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Joe Ludwig and Stephen Conroy have resigned.]

    That alone should improve the ALP vote.

  6. samantha maiden ‏@samanthamaiden 24s

    Andrew Wilkie statement: I have written to Kevin Rudd confirming I will provide confidence in House in event GG commissions him as PM

  8. [As a woman, I have been betrayed.]

    What does your gender have to do with it? What about all the women who support Rudd or another political party?

    Don’t you think supporting a woman by default just because she’s a woman is, actually, rather sexist in itself?

  10. It’s time now for the ALP to unite, the real enemy is Abbott and the focus has to be on ensuring that he never becomes PM.
    The ALP need to do whatever it takes to ensure that such a scenario never happens.

  12. [65
    confessions

    So let’s hear from the Ratf*cker. He has to give a statement soon.]

    Soothing words of comfort and redemption, there, confessions 🙂

  13. swamprat
    Apart from Albo that means that virtually every senior cabinet minister has resigned at some stage or another during the last three years. It is the sort of stuff that happens when a sociopath is on the loose.

  14. [the little twisted psychopath even wore a blue tie.]

    Rudd is liberating blue ties every where from Gillards tie oppression.

    As to your woman comment, I believe women aren’t as dumb as some in Labor believe that the colour of someones tie has anything to do with being sexist or misogynists.

  16. [You never complained about people not referring to Gillard as “Prime Minister”?]

    I complained about people referring to her in diminishing fashion such as ‘Julia’, while referring to other MPs by the more authoritative surname.

  17. i will put my mark for alp on the ballot paper, but nothing more. I am not working for the boy’s club. they can feck off.

  20. [It’s time now for the ALP to unite, the real enemy is Abbott and the focus has to be on ensuring that he never becomes PM.
    The ALP need to do whatever it takes to ensure that such a scenario never happens.]

    Yes, now that I have got everything I want, now the responsibility is on the rest of you to unite.

  22. Bemused was right all along. I thought anyone but Rudd .. Smith or Fergo (Martin) or Combet .. but they’ve picked the only leader worse than Gillard, Krudd (ignoring Swan who is worse than both but not a leader). Gotta hand it to Labor. Can’t wait to see Swan support Rudd’s confidence vote in House. And also looking forward to next polls that show Gillard would be preferred leader of ALP.

  23. [ It’s time now for the ALP to unite, the real enemy is Abbott and the focus has to be on ensuring that he never becomes PM.
    The ALP need to do whatever it takes to ensure that such a scenario never happens. ]

    Good luck with that.

  25. two bob’s worth

    ‘We are back in business – at last!’

    Yep. The business of rewarding treachery, double dealing, destructive leaks during election campaigns, gross disloyalty and strategic campaigns of lying wherever and whenever while feeding the minions of Murdoch.

    Some business. You can have the sociopath. Just remember one thing: once a sociopath always a sociopath.

  27. I think the cross benches must have allow a SSO tomorrow to allow a no confidence motion. Windsor and Oakeshott have nothing to lose and will vote yes. Despite what he says Katter will follow his electorate’s wishes and will vote yes. The government will fall but it is unlikely to be a directive vote of no confidence.

  28. Amazing how the same people who called Kim Carr’s departure a Stalinist purge are now celebrating ministerial resignations.

  30. fess
    The ratf#cker is out looking for another woman to strangle. Him Abbott and nigella’s husband have a lot in common.

  32. OC

    If they are consistent they will allow the SSO but will probably back Rudd. This shows you how low we can go: cross benchers preferring Rudd in all his glory to Abbott in all his glory.

    Next, please.

  34. CREAN running for deputy?

    You can’t be serious.

    Rudd returning changes the ballgame.

    Paul Murray is slowly losing his shit on Sky.

  35. [88
    Boerwar

    briefly

    I would love to be Loughnane. The Rudd destruction ads write themselves.

    Does a citrus souffle rise twice?]

    We will see. People are very very sick of the tenor of politics – the personalisation of differences, the insults and the bile. Maybe attacks on KR will rebound on the Libs….we will soon see, because they will certainly try to destroy him.

  37. meher baba

    [ I think someone picked 56-46,]
    If they did I missed it. Any way top guess. Personally I expected a huge win one way or the other.

  40. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    fess
    The ratf#cker is out looking for another woman to strangle. Him Abbott and nigella’s husband have a lot in common.]

    Puff, if Sophie Mirabella becomes the leader of the Coalition will you be voting for her? After all, wouldn’t want to be “strangling a woman”.

  41. [35
    alias
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:59 pm | PERMALINK
    Been fairly sober here Bemused.

    A determination to unite, leave aside gloating, and get on with beating Abbott.]
    Agree generally and hope there is none in caucus.

    However, I will allow myself a little on PB directed at particularly deserving cases but not Gillard supporters generally as I respect many of them.

  44. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:18 pm | PERMALINK
    You never complained about people not referring to Gillard as “Prime Minister”?

    I complained about people referring to her in diminishing fashion such as ‘Julia’, while referring to other MPs by the more authoritative surname.]

    “authoratative” like the rat****** name you used in your earlier post?

    Haha 🙂 U R funny!

  47. briefly

    ‘We will see. People are very very sick of the tenor of politics – the personalisation of differences, the insults and the bile. Maybe attacks on KR will rebound on the Libs….we will soon see, because they will certainly try to destroy him.’

    I don’t care what the polls say and I don’t care whether Labor or Liberal get in. The horrible thing is that the Greens have been right but for the wrong reasons. Labor and Liberal policies are different. But their leadership is sociopath or narcissist – same same.

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