Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

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  8. I suspect the state-by-state breakdowns will show a similar result as other polls as well. i.e.,

    Notable swing to Labor in Queensland from 2010 with several seats gained.

    Slight gains in NSW and WA, with a couple of seats won.

    Swing against Labor in Victoria, SA, and the Territories but with few seats lost.

    Larger swings against Labor in Tasmania, but with few seats lost.

    With the big divergence in Preferred PM, there is still a lot of mileage for Rudd to pick up even more votes from the LNP.

  9. Not sure the delaying for lunch thing is a good idea actually….unless Anderson just needs some time for a massage and then he will bowl again.

    To come out after a nice lunch, perhaps a change of clothes, and a drink and pee, and you are told you just need to get 20 runs in the match…..thats all. Thats not a hard ask is it?

  11. “@Jude_Bolton: Stuart Broad – I’m glad it’s back to back Ashes series coz you will cop it at every sporting ground this summer in Australia.

    #Ashes”

  13. [Where has labor’s other 5 point gain in the primary come from William? Others?]

    Only place it can have. Pretty much all the polling has shown voters flocking back to Labor from “others” since the leadership change.

  15. How much support KAP and PUP are getting and where from (or more precisely where their preferences are going) is the really interesting question…

  17. Lev, my thoughts too…Perhaps, just perhaps, if TA does make any slips from now on, he will be punished in the polls. In the same way as the media were looking for JG to misstep, is it possible they will take a more critical approach to the LOTO?

  20. Larger swings against Labor in Tasmania, but with few seats lost

    ======================================================

    they will come back in to line

    I think they are worried about the situation here
    but the greens have caused a lot of worry , so they think
    but really nick mckim has been very good I think he should be in the labor party

    so I say any movement away at the moment is, saying we are not happy with our state gov,

    but last poll 30 percent undecided, state poll so the libs have not got it all their way in the state yet
    I am hoping the feds give us the one thing we want

    but I am not posting it ,, so liberal s don’t think of it

  21. @Lev/8

    Newspoll had gains for ALP.

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 10 Jul

    #Newspoll SA Federal Primary Votes: ALP 41 (+11 compared to Apr-Jun) L/NP 41 (-3) GRN 8 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 10 Jul

    #Newspoll WA Federal Primary Votes: ALP 32 (+7 compared to Apr-Jun) L/NP 46 (-9) GRN 10 (-1) #auspol

  23. [is it possible they will take a more critical approach to the LOTO?]

    JG was piled onto once the polls got bad for the govt, and she made a few mis-steps. There’s no reason they can’t, and shouldn’t do the same for Abbott.

  24. mmmm WOW…good game of cricket! And great game of AFL today with the Swannies winning big!

    and not too bad in the polls either…

  25. dick area there is heaps of new homes in the sorell area
    but he is very well liked, by the older residents,

    wonders down the road chats to all in sundry, the country folk really like him

    I know because I have family is a business in his electorate,

  26. [Marcus Westbury ‏@unsungsongs 9m
    I believe the coalition #NBN policy is actually #StuartBroadBand. Unnecessary delays, unacknowledged outages, painful to endure. #Ashes]

  27. confessions @ 23….Maybe Fairfax, and the free-to-air networks will take a more critical approach to TA, but it is hard to imagine that Murdoch and the ABC will put any pressure on him.

  28. [is it possible they will take a more critical approach to the LOTO?]

    For many in the media, politics is simply a blood-sport. What we take for bias is often just a pack of dogs running down the weakest in the herd. First Howard, then Rudd, then Gillard. Now Abbott is the weakest, and the pack will turn on him.

  30. Posters earlier today were calling Nielsen at 52/48. Must have been a late swing against Rudd’s Carbon Price announcement.

  32. The only time Murdoch will put pressure on Abbott is if Labor is leading in the polls and marginals and Abbott’s approvals dip.

    Then he will either put in his two bobs worth on a leadership change, or tap Rudd on the shoulder for a favour.

  36. Psephos@18

    Is Kevin B here? Are we seeing any signs of Kevinophilia in Tasmania? Can the ‘Bottom and Big Dick be saved?

    There’s no Rudd-return Tas polling I’d trust further than I could kick it yet (don’t trust Morgan’s Tas sampling, ReachTEL very small sample) but I reckon Labor should now be ahead in Lyons and behind in Braddon.

  37. Conservatives dismiss Lynton Crosby tobacco link ‘smears’:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23305924

    “Ministers had been thought keen to go ahead with the cigarette packaging proposal, designed to discourage young people from smoking by making the packets less attractive.”

    “But a decision was delayed last week, after a Department of Health consultation found views on whether this would be effective were “highly polarised”.”

    Tories don’t have balls.

  38. I’m now a third of the way through doing the detailed results of the Pakistani elections. With 272 seats, and about 20 candidates per seat, it’s a lot of tabulating.

  39. [28
    Psephos

    is it possible they will take a more critical approach to the LOTO?

    For many in the media, politics is simply a blood-sport. What we take for bias is often just a pack of dogs running down the weakest in the herd. First Howard, then Rudd, then Gillard. Now Abbott is the weakest, and the pack will turn on him.]

    Well he has had a long run with no real scrutiny, so this will be a revelation for all (if it happens).

  40. Good point Zoidlord, but are those swings in comparison to the last polls taken or compared to 2010 results?

    I believe it is the former, so Labor still has to make up some ground in SA to get to 2010 levels – and there are much richer pickings in Qld, WA, and NSW – if Labor gets 51% TPP in Qld they gain 10 seats, in WA 5, and in NSW 1. It’s not until 54% TPP in SA that they pick anything up.

  41. I like Elder’s disclaimer:

    “This is a blog about politics and the media commentary/coverage that encrusts it. This is not a “citizen journalist” blog.”

  43. [There’s no Rudd-return Tas polling I’d trust further than I could kick it yet (don’t trust Morgan’s Tas sampling, ReachTEL very small sample) but I reckon Labor should now be ahead in Lyons and behind in Braddon.]

    Thanks. I’ll be sad if Sid loses, he’s a very nice bloke.

  44. no one should watch cricket with first footprints on abc – but show a bit limited however visually splendid and valuable

    this nielsen discussion so funny. rudd has been there two weeks, polls now level, he has hardly warmed up, doing housekeeping, and soothsayers say the honeymoon over. so funny. the harvest has yet to begin o ye of little faith

  46. Hopefully the LNP are no so stupid and ignorant as to see that the election this year will be a personality contest and policy will take a very very distant back seat. Turnbull will probably reverse Kevins reign of terror but the question will be whether he would be will to step up again. Personally I hope he does, just to put a final nail in Kevin’s political ambition. I do wonder however if this has been the plan all along. Let the ALP self-implode, push them to beg Kevin to return, make them look smug and incompetent with old-Kevin ads and then bring Turbull back to finish them off.

  47. @Lev/40

    Yes it is the former.

    And yes, Labor still need abit more work to do.

    It was comparing results from April-June.

  48. Surely posters at PB would be entirely honest and trustworthy and adhere to the spirit of Bludgering that William is so keen to foster.

    The way you guys go on we are collectively more Stuart Broad than Stuart Broad

  49. 50/50 suits Labor very nicely at this point – still more work to do, and Abbott will not be dumped in favour of Turnball.
    Phoney is still Labor’s best weapon, even more so than Rudd

  50. gg
    what a sour grape comment

    u would know very well that the poll would of been at the end stage,

    why do u persist with your sour grapes u are nearly on your own with this now

    and such a well educated person and a labor member

    will you be turning in your member ship soon

    sour lemons don’t suit you or the occassion

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