Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 2 of 45
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  1. “People are dying on the seas and the Greens don’t give a shit.” – from what I have seen lately from the Greens I tend to agree with you, Sean.

  2. Well, you would say other get 10% which means the Greens must be polling 6%.

    It’s hilarious 😆

    Bunny on fire in the footy 😐

  5. AussieAchmed

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Sean – explain what is wrong with the Australian economy.

    Convince me, see if you can get me to agree and I’ll vote Liberal.
    ——————————————-

    Sean…SEAN…where are you?

    Avoiding answering?
    Unable to substantiate your claims?

    I deduce from your refusal to respond you were lying about the economy?

    Or, and this is the one that has me all upset and crying in my bundy…you don’t want my vote….:-(

  12. One of the reasons put forward by the Liar Monk Abbott was that Malaysia was not a signatory of the UN Convention.

    Yet Nauru, the country that Abbott was promoting and supported as an option for asylum seekers was not a signatory during the Pacific Solution period.

    They did not sign the UN convention until June 2011.

    Just another example of the Liberal lying and hypocricy

  13. ST @9:13pm People are dying on the seas and the Greens don’t give a shit. The Greens care, even if their solutions are misguided. It’s the Coalition who exploit the issue, dog whistling to racists. The ‘Pacific Solution’ started as a thought bubble when the Tampa arrived regarding how John Howard could bring One Nation voters back into the fold in time for a tricky 2001 election. Unlike the East Timor thought bubble, it worked. Since then, the Coalition has been demonising asylum seekers and from time to time issuing press releases on the diseases they supposedly carry. Lately they pretend to be greatly concerned by drownings. What, boats won’t capsize after they’re turned back? Meanwhile, Labor has been mostly reacting.

    No one comes out of this looking good, least of all the ‘Liberals’.

  17. Zoidlord

    WOW

    That is proof that homes connected with the NBN will add more value to the home than without 😡

    Labor should take out an ad with that Albo release!

  23. spur212@68

    I’m expecting a Rudd/Turnbull voting intention with this Galaxy that tells us what we already know

    Crikey yesterday referred to a 3-way Rudd/Turnbull/Abbott voting intention question being asked at least in Melbourne.

    Don’t know for sure if it’s the same poll since that one did have Melbourne-specific questions, but Galaxy has often asked multi-leader PPMs before.

    Abbott could perform very badly on such a question if asked nationwide.

  28. tisme/truthy or whoever you are. Assuming you are not a crikey plant, What exactly are you attempting to prove on a left leaning political blog? If I went to bolt’s blog and repeatedly stated that abbott was a douche, it would make absolutely no difference to the bolt followers. I respect your right to free speech totally 100% but in the interests of intellectual philosophical left/right arguments, please try and make an attempt to make a valid argument as to why abbott would be a better alternative regarding our long term future as a nation.

  32. Why on Earth did Rudd go on Bolt’s show? It’s the same as Gillard going on Sattler’s show. I can’t see how anything good can come out of it.

  33. The frog still sits in warmish water. That is a good thing, it should keep Abbott as LOTO, and he is hopeless. Rudd needs a weakened opponent.

  34. [79
    geoffrey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:52 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    we dont care we dont need you]

    Oh, carry on with your one hand clapping then!

  35. Re post #78 I think Sean works on the principle that a bad Liberal government will always be better than a good Labor government. Not that Rudd is likely to lead a good Labor government 😉

  41. 82

    Sattler lost his job after the Gillard interview. Would it not be good if Bolt also lost his job after interviewing Rudd? Although I think Bolt has more sense and tact than Sattler showed and is thus unlikely to make the same or similar mistake.

  43. rudd did not get where he is, in my opinion, without leaving at least a few iou’s floating around.

    Who in politics doesn’t have iou’s?

  44. PvO saying game changer must mean the primary boost came from the others and Liberal not at mostly Green expense.

    Only way that can be a game changer.

  46. 2PP
    Since their last poll Galaxy has shown a +1% swing to ALP.
    Since their last poll Essential has shown +1% swing to the ALP.
    Since their last poll ReachTel have shown a +1% swing to the ALP.
    Since their last poll Morgan has shown a swing of .5% to the ALP.
    Only Newspoll has not shown a swing to the ALP.

  50. “@mirandadevine: @vanOnselenP did not call Galaxy a “gamechanger”. @TroyBramston did. A Q on boats is “interesting”, as PVO said”

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