As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Swan (Liberal 2.5%)
The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.
Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.
Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.
Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.
Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)
Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.
The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.
Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.
CC 2139
So, you must hate George Pell then. Don’t let the boss find out though, or you will be taken off the PB shift at Liberal HQ.
In fact, history tends to be repeating itself from earlier days, and Rudd certainly looks and sounds like Howard lite.
In addition, Labor frequently led the conservatives something like 52-48 in the polls in the early weeks, and then the wheels dropped off and by the last week, the conservatives caught up and passed Labor by.
We might have the uncanny experience of Labor doing this to the conservatives this time around.
[ global warming religious brain washing.]
children being rogered by climate scientists now?
Kinkajou
[there’s a billy mcmahon moment…gear …fab…groovy…tony abbott…yeah!!!!]
Dad thinks the kids are celebrating but the kids see dad as
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBHKVAs85Ko
Lizzie
True and good idea. Night all. Look forward to Abbott releasing those policy costings now. Or has he jettisoned the charter of budget honesty Costello brought in?
I wonder how many right wingers on this blog right now are getting paid to “tell one for Tony”?
The West Australian tries to frame WA as relevant to this election.
[WA wasn’t going to be a key election battleground for Labor but it is now with the resignation of Stephen Smith and his blue-ribbon seat of Perth up for grabs.]
They say that every election, and it’s never the case. 🙂
Socrates
He was referring to belief in the facts of climate science as being religious in nature. This is a common claim amongst whackjobs on the right that everyone ignores. Including, hopefully, his kids.
He was not saying anything about religious brainwashing, in fact I bet he’s in favour of it.
.19 seconds)
Search Results
Kevin Rudd leads Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister: poll – ABC
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013…poll…preferred-prime-minister/4789860
Jun 30, 2013 – In today’s Galaxy poll published in News Limited papers, Mr Rudd leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 51 points to 34. However
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cent, according to the survey of 1400 voters taken from July 11 to 13.
Rudd up in polls and cabinet considers carbon changes – ABC …
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-09/rudd-up-in-polls-and…/4807902
Updated July 09, 2013 09:32:00. In Newspoll the prime minister leads Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister by 53 to 31. On a two party preferred basis labor …
========================================================
so reachtell tonight have 52 abbott 48 rud
my goodness what happened this week
come on
as I said William should for the sake of his profession ask questions
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-4august13
Tricot, nothing wrong with Reachtel (its not “in house”), as far as robopolling goes. Worthwhile and within the range of other pollsters, and should be part of any aggregate, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it.
On another note, check the tables. Note that Abbott’s PPM rating is always higher in Reachtel compared to live interviewer polls (Newspoll/Galaxy/Neilsen). Just something about the methodolgy? You have to make a choice, so you go for the one you gave the “vote” to. I think many questions might be influenced by a possible inability to give an ‘undecided” result. Either that or there is something different about doing a robopoll.
A dodgy ReachTEL figure and this place goes haywire!
come on if you phone polled with out a voice
and ask to press number one or two
on your phone pad
whose name did they ask first.
Leroy have they ever rang you.
it stressed me out as I could not hear them and I did press the wrong button that was weeks ago now
I thought I my goodness I just pressed the wrong button so , it was not used I hung up
Malcolm Farr has a good line:
Q. What do Rudd and Abbott have in common?
A. They have both removed two Labor leaders in order to compete in this election.
Compact Crank
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:35 pm | Permalink
AA @2069 – you are clutching at straws.
———————————————————-
stating a fact is not clutching at straws. A fact is a fact..a concept Liberals have trouble with comprehending
Thanks Leroy.
At the end of the day it is 52-48 though I note their MOE is skinnier than some of the other polls which suggests they think it is more accurate.
Re the PPM it is not so much that the gap is narrower for Reachtel, but compared with the other major polls looks intuitively off the beam.
With 16 points difference in one poll, reduced to next to nothing in another poll within days, makes things look very odd.
[Note that Abbott’s PPM rating is always higher in Reachtel compared to live interviewer polls (Newspoll/Galaxy/Neilsen). Just something about the methodolgy?]
Today was my first Reachtel, and they did not give much time at all after asking a question before they starting asking if you wanted a repeat of the question. Maybe 2 seconds, if that.
It felt very rushed and forced. (Don’t mean it was push polling. Just not the most reliable way to do it.)
no it annoys me that we see a poll that has abbott at 31
percent how he can suddenly be 58
as we know nothing has changed,
Reachtel poll could be right on TPP. But only if it’s backed up by others that I assume are coming out tonight.
In regards to PPM, I would be extremely sceptical. As would Reachtel, I imagine.
Nate Silver has a 2008 article on the inclusion (or otherwise) of mobile phones in phone polling.
He generally concludes that polls which do not include mobile numbers (the majority in the US) tend to give different results from polls that do.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/cellphone-problem-revisited.html
just me
I had the same experience, I was talking to a friend in the north of the state , she votes labot
she said she hangs up on them so does the computer
or what ever they use tell them people have hung up
or is counted as a call.,
these are the questions I would think people that have this game as a profession should ask
Is Reachtel part of Bludgertrack then?
[A fact is a fact..a concept Liberals have trouble with comprehending]
Oh they know full well what a fact is, which is why they run a mile from them, coz they know the facts are generally not so favourable to their ’cause’.
Like I said, i think the method forces a choice, so reluctant Tony supporters can’t/don’t say “undecided” on PPM. It’s not that big a deal people. Each polling method has its quirks. You just aggregate the lot.
I am wondering if some people just take it as joke
and press the number for abbott
Tricot @2162
Reachtel appears to have a house effect of around 1% (or maybe slightly more) to the Coalition compared to the regular phone polls (Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy), which would put the “real” situation at 51-49 (with the poll’s margin of error, of course).
With 16 points difference in one poll, reduced to next to nothing in another poll within days, makes things look very odd.
===============================================
yes and as u can see from above I posted a few of them
it makes me angry because people are bit like sheep
YB
[Don’t you think that Abbott looks tired ?]
I haven’t seen him or Rudd and won’t be watching them over next 34 days .. just counting the days to goodbye Fake Rudd. The only real thing he’s ever done, and is rightly proud of, is to eat his earwax in HoR for benefit of the viewing audience. Apparently he prefers the right-ear wax but that was out of view and he wanted to be “seen” as always.
Jesus Christ, calm the hell down. It’s one poll. Election is 5 weeks away. God knows what’s going to happen or how this is gonna turn out…
Bone Kevin September seven…
Obviously I am no make-up expert, as I cannot work out why chalk-white eyelids are supposed to improve Mr Abbott’s appearance.
The Reachtel looks more like 52.5 to 47.5 based on the last election preferences.
The KAP and PUP being distributed under “Others” 60% to the LNP, which I suspect is doing the LNP a disservice so its probably even better than 52.5.
The real change in this poll is economic management…..perhaps the mini budget showing the massive screw up in the ALP numbers didn’t go down too well with the punters?
@mod lib/2179
So why would the punters go toward the Coalition Party knowing they would be worse off?
2177
New2This
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 7:17 pm | PERMALINK
Bone Kevin September seven…
Your record appears to be stuck.
lizzie
[
Obviously I am no make-up expert, as I cannot work out why chalk-white eyelids are supposed to improve Mr Abbott’s appearance.]
Like having nodding donkeys behind the speaker it seems to be the in “thang” these days. Last year in live parly broadcasts Poodle Pyne was the uber champion of the reverse panda eyes.
For those supporting Abbott. three what should be easy questions
How much will Direct Action cost?
Where in the budget will the money come from?
After repealing the Carbon Price legislation and removing the revenue to pay the tax cuts and compensation that Abbott has stated will remain –
Where will he find the $4.5Billion a year in the budget to pay for those tax cuts etc?
BY my guesstimate Direct Action and the tax cuts etc will cost around $20+ billion over 3 years all UNFUNDED…
Mick 77
This Election is going to go down to whether Abbott looks PM material. Frankly he is not.
On the other hand, say what you like about Rudd, he at least looks like a PM.
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 7:20 pm | PERMALINK
@mod lib/2179
So why would the punters go toward the Coalition Party knowing they would be worse off?]
How would they be worse off?
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 7:20 pm | PERMALINK
@mod lib/2179
So why would the punters go toward the Coalition Party knowing they would be worse off?]
How would they be worse off?
[Jesus Christ, calm the hell down. It’s one poll. Election is 5 weeks away. God knows what’s going to happen or how this is gonna turn out…]
Exactly.
All this hysteria over PPM is Shanahanesque.
poroti
Omigod. The poodle too? Must have been a fascinating contrast to his red face!!
zoidlord
[So why would the punters go toward the Coalition Party knowing they would be worse off?]
For the same reason millions of turkey’s voted for Thanks Giving Day in 2 consecutive elections in the US, see GW Shrub.
Watched the 6.00pm channel 7 news tonight. Talk about the Liberal half hour. All they wanted to show was Abbott.
But Riley did at least corner him on one important question. Will he guarantee no new taxes if he wins. Three times the question was asked and three times he dodged it. Not a good look. My guess is he will be getting that question quite a bit more over the next five weeks.
lizzie:
It’s supposed to make your appearance seem more bright and alive.
I’m not sure if it’s working with Abbott though.
Doesn’t look like Mr Turnbull will ever be Prime Minister of Australia now…..pity!
So the first poll shows a 52-48
That is not a surprise, the polling numbers are closer than they were six weeks ago and as i noticed all Rudd has done is bring the ALP back to a narrow deficit.
[But Riley did at least corner him on one important question.]
Simpkin had an interview with Abbott on ABC. Seems like Team Abbott have spammed the nightly news tonight.
The only way people would be terribly disappointed right now is if:
A) they actually expect to WIN a majority.
B) they expected better than a 48ish/52ish position to start the campaign, which is in the margin of 50-50.
Just settle down. Rudd was reinstated to lift the primary to save a bucketload of seats, not to put a win beyond doubt.
I’m not saying we won’t win, or will. It is what it is.
Buckle up. We’re in for a weird and unprecedented campaign.
Six years of labor lies and crap. Australia is ready for a change, a change for the better.
confessions
Makes him look more tired and emotional, to me. But perhaps to his loving fans white eyelids are fascinating.
Good night. 🙂
[Yesiree Bob
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 7:23 pm | PERMALINK
Mick 77
This Election is going to go down to whether Abbott looks PM material. Frankly he is not.
On the other hand, say what you like about Rudd, he at least looks like a PM.]
So, I take it that you thought Howard looked like a PM when he was LOTO then?