Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. I did suggest in a survey that schools should extend hours to alleviate child care costs and help with work hours. Good to see they’ve taken the ball and run with it.

    IMO the answer to the debt question is “if we were taxing at the rate of the Howard Government we would already be in surplus but because of the GFC we would have lost x amount of jobs”.

  3. [“if we were taxing at the rate of the Howard Government we would already be in surplus “]

    Yes I agree, the ALP should say “If we were Howard, we would be delivering surplus budgets”

    …… but of course the ALP is not Howard and haven’t delivered on for about a quarter century”

  4. [But just checking it cant have been ether. Something they dripped on a gauze on your face.]

    Now I am curious to know what it was. Country SA at Minlaton in 1961… wonder what they were using. Putting a gauze frame over your mouth then dripping something from a bottle onto it.

  6. T.P

    I will ask around, tomorrow. The person who told me of his experience was Country SA, I think. Not Minlaton. But north, nevertheless. Then Cowandilla.

  9. Chloroform.

    Will never forget that day. Suffered a traumatic and rather painful injury, having my arm ripped to pieces in one those old washing machines.

    Followed up with something different a few years later.

  13. Thinking about some slogans:

    Bone Tone
    Abbottabad, for a public service jihad
    Obey Murdoch, vote Abbott!
    Surrender to the Mad Monk of Manly

    Kevin Sept 7
    Keep Australia sane, vote Labor

  14. There really are some idiots around cricket, as well:
    [Ben: “For me, all this simply underlines a key question – why didn’t Clarke declare earlier? If he had declared at Tea yesterday, Australia would have been 290 ahead, they wouldn’t have lost time to the light (because he would have been able to bowl two spinners – as the Umps requested) and England would have had a carrot to chase. Instead, he batted on (even when Starc fell!), gave England no incentive whatsoever to go for the win.” ]
    http://www.espncricinfo.com/the-ashes-2013/engine/current/match/566934.html

    Clarke did not reckon that idiocy would be part of the umpires’ arsenal. Mind you, Khawaja’s dismissal might have given him some grounds.

  15. The fact that Murdoch is so overtly commanding his media to achieve a change of government makes me a bit more pessimistic than I have been – 70% of the print media and 99% of the bogan media of the nation. I still think many swinging voters will not vote for Abbott against Rudd – I base this simply on a gut feel that if they wouldn’t vote for Hewson against Keating in 1993, they are unlikely to vote for a nutter like Abbott against Rudd. Abbott is a Latham-like character and this is going to come out during the campaign enough for people to stick with Rudd. There are enough seats that Labor lost last election that should swing back to give Labor the numbers. It is going to be very close.

    However, I’m wondering whether perhaps a narrow ALP loss would not be the worst result provided Labor and Greens hold the senate. Abbott would immediately become the most detested newly elected PM ever – the embarrassment of him and his team of clowns actually trying to run a nation might even be entertaining and will certainly see their popularity plummet from a bare 50-50 at the election to 40/45:60/55 pretty quickly. Rudd could be kicked out of the Labor party for being the rat he is. Abbott will preside over (and contribute to with PS sackings) the highest unemployment in 2 decades. He will be unable to dismantle the carbon price and would not dare go to a DD over it as he’d probably not win the senate and could lose the election. Similarly, he will not able able to do anything to drastic without labor or greens support in the senate. Provided Labor kept the blood-letting to a minimum, they’d have a good shot in 2016 unless the libs saw sense and gave Turnbull another shot. Best not to risk it though.

    It is good that murdoch media bias is a talking point on day one of the campaign – labor and the greens now need to get stuck into abbott re: where his funds are coming from and what payback he owes for their support. A campaign about Abbott saying ‘a big fat yes’ to the IPAs list of neo-con wet dreams could be good – particularly if they pick on some hapless ministers (e.g Andrews, Hockey, Joyce) and candidates (I like that Diaz chap in Greenaway – what’s the bet he is not let near the media ever again (but then again, they let Sophie back, so they probably thought he did very well_?) and ask them – which IPA items has Tony Abbott said ‘yes’ to. Questions about funding from the tobacco lobby, mining lobby, fossil fuel companies, private health insurance industry, etc need to be asked. Labor should set up a royal commission into media bias and ownership and the potential for perversion of justice and damaging of informed democracy.

  17. if we were taxing at the rate of the Howard Government we would already be in surplus…

    Contrary to what Liberals say they’re about, Howard ran a high tax high spend government. With receipts from income tax and company tax rolling in, the Howard Government ran a sort of triennial lottery. Each year, the average taxpayer paid an additional $1,000 to $1,500 above what was needed to pay for Commonwealth expenditure. Also, Howard and Co. sold off public assets, usually at fire sale prices, often to their business allies.

    Then come election time, if you belonged to a demographic that Howard and Costello judged susceptible to election bribes, or if you were an ideological ally, you get to collect. You couldn’t go outside without Howard and Costello leaping out from the bushes and stuffing money into your pockets. Income tax cuts, capital gains tax discount, health insurance rebate, handouts to elite schools, private health insurance rebate, baby bonus, absurd and unsustainable support to wealth superannuants. The list goes on. Of course if you were unemployed, disabled or going to university, different rules applied.

    Then he bought into the US invasion of Iraq and committed Australian troops to the thoroughly botched operation in Afghanistan.

    For wasteful spending and worse, Howard and Costello take the cake. It will take decades to unwind the Howard largesse to his supporters and until we do, the budget remains in structural deficit.

  18. [Gareth: “Everyone’s a captain in hindsight. What if Clarke declared and the rain stayed away? England would have won the Test and Clarke would have been a laughing stock. He captained well with the facts he had.” I don’t think anyone would rile Clarke if Australia lost with a generous declaration. They have to win the keep the series alive, it doesn’t really matter if they lose.]
    Perzactly!

  19. The Ashes slipped away in the first two tests. In England the odds are one test will be cut short and any touring team relying on winning the last three tests after losing the first two was looking for one of those miracles to happen.

  20. [In England the odds are one test will be cut short]
    Would that be “the odds are that a deciding test will be cut short”?

    Did you watch today’s play? Australia needed another 3 or 4 hours and were bowling brilliantly.

  21. I thought PBers would like to know I walked past a restaurant in the trendy part of Edinburgh today called Bilbos and the special today was Haggis Balls deep fried 😀

  22. … on a responsive pitch.

    Siddle was swinging the ball both ways. Lyon was getting away drift and lots of bite from the pitch although a bit slow, as you would expect.

  24. Manchester has on average 12 days in August with 1 mm or more of rain. This means that in a 5 day test, expect two to be rain affected. That’s about the same as Sydney in Summer. And from what I’ve seen of Cricket, play stops if someone knocks over a glass of water within 100 km of the venue. It would probably make more sense to schedule cricket matches to include an extra day which would only be used in the event of rain delays. I find it difficult to get too excited about a game that is stopped by a few light showers. How on Earth did the English actually invent a game that requires five consecutive days of fine weather?

  27. Steve777,

    Cricket in England was, a century or two ago, a one-day outing with all the accoutrements of a decent lunch and a sumptuous four o’clock tea.

  29. There is photshopping and then there is photoshopping.

    There is no longer any reason to believe what you see in hard copy, on TV (which we have known for aeons) or on the web.

    I think, William, you may have obtained and dis-obtained a few with that one.

  32. crikey whitey,

    Most of us probably do. I vote for policies.

    Personally, if I walked along a street and saw Tony Abbott or Kevin Rudd coming towards me then I would have a choice: cross the street or be charged with assault.

  33. You eally have to give Cranky and baby Sean their due been filling PB with stupid comments for how many hours now? I wnet out they were going had been for quite a while just come back 7 hours later and still going, amazing :gtin:
    Was wondering does Menzies House cover employees with RSI

  34. Before I go. Might get an overnight on this, posted earlier. May keep you slightly entertained.

    No googling, and if you know the answer having read it, no spoilers.

    Just for a bit of gobsmacking fun. I read this whilst visiting the hospital.

    I will donate a prize of $10 to the Labor campaign headquarters of your choice for correctly naming the author of the following article.

    ‘Like I am sure may Spectator Australia readers, I have (OK, make that frequent) grumble about the ABC. I was singularly unsurprised by the recent survey of ABC staff which showed that if there were an ABC polling booth, the Greens would win it. This preference shows up both in the choices that are made about which stories to report and how they are reported.

    Now don’t get me wrong; there are of course first class, straight down the line journalists like Sales, Uhlmann, Simkin and Curtis who report in the finest traditions of Aunty. But they swim against the tide in an institutional embrace of Australia’s most left wing parliamentary party’’

  38. The 2nd part of the debt answer is probably “no responsible government should ever prioritise modest debt which can be comfortably repaid over jobs, as we have seen to the detriment of the economies in Europe and Queensland”.

  39. [singularly unsurprised]
    [Now don’t get me wrong]
    That is an interesting contrast: not too many would use “singularly” and someone with learning would put a comma after “Now”.

    Knows the use of the subjunctive.

    Fawns on the ABC detritus.

    From the whole spiel, it is someone with a superiority thingy.

    Could be Bob Carr but he is not so prolix in that particular context.

    I would guess, someone who appears regularly on The Contrarions.

    Chris Kenny.

  44. Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Monday, August 5, 2013 at 11:35 pm | PERMALINK
    But just checking it cant have been ether. Something they dripped on a gauze on your face

    =============

    It could still have been ether. Mask over the face, like a strainer, then dripped onto it. I remember it well. My father was an anaesthetist and used to carry it round in the boot of the car and we would all get carsick. Really horrible stuff.when you went under it felt like falling backwards, and when toy woke up you felt like crap, even if you didn’t throw up.

  45. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch.html

    Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Five Weeks To Go (August 6)

    2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 30 July): 50.8 TO COALITION (+0.7 since last week)
    Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 65 seats (no net change, Reid and Forde become tossups)
    Seat Total Market: Labor 67 seats (-1)

    In this issue:
    * Bad weekend of polling for the Government
    * Rudd just not that popular
    * Strange views of Green voters on asylum seeker issues
    * Seat poll of Melbourne is suspicious
    * A small 2PP shift can mean a lot

  46. There is no hope for Australians if they are so stupid enough to vote Murdoch and his followers, the LNP, in to power.

    They show writ large how far they will go to make sure we have a “Guided Democracy” by sacking any whistle blower who tries in vain to get the message out of sheer incompetent destruction of any public facility.

    This says it all when a leading Neuro Surgeon is just cast on to the dung heap of the unemployed by fucking beligerant incalcitrant posers of the LNP.

    The LNP are a fucking disgrace and Tony Abbott should be let known in no uncertain terms that their vicious rule mentality is not required in Australia.

    Even though there has been a change of management at the Courier Mail there are still a few there who are prepared to expose these economic vandals for what they are.

    I hope my fellow Queenslanders will see the error of their way and not give Abbott the same chance to destroy our society.

    [A BALI bombings surgeon has been sacked as director of surgery at Gold Coast Hospital after leading a doctor revolt over allegations including a “dangerous” bed shortage and workplace bullying and intimidation.

    Neurosurgeon Dr Teresa Withers and fellow senior doctors have hired high-powered lawyers to fight hospital management after she was dumped from the post she had held for 12 years.

    Dr Withers, whom former premier Peter Beattie flew to Darwin to treat victims after the 2005 Bali bombings, had been raising allegations of mismanagement at the Gold Coast Hospital which she and other doctors claim is endangering patient safety.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/gold-coast-hospital-sacks-neurosurgeon-dr-teresa-withers-following-doctor-revolt-over-patient-safety-fears/story-fnihsrf2-1226691621657

    Save Australia from these uncompromising vandals

    Vote for the Whitehead not the Dickhead

  47. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Here we go.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/rolf-harris-rearrested-on-new-sex-abuse-allegations-20130806-2ral4.html
    Mentally disturbed – in many respects.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/new-assault-allegations-made-against-prayer-leader-during-visit-20130805-2ra66.html
    I really don’t like this Seppo.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/poll-could-kill-car-industry-20130805-2ra91.html
    Hartcher on Ken Henry’s correct observations on revenue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/both-parties-peddle-a-fiscal-fairytale-20130805-2ra2l.html
    And dirty money will win again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/news-ltd-apologises-to-barbara-ramjan-over-tony-abbott-punch-story-20130805-2r8si.html
    Oakey’s not the only one!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rob-oakeshott-regrets-failure-to-make-deal-on-debates-20130805-2r9tg.html
    David Pope conflates the announcement of the new Dr Who with Ruddstoration.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe with horrible imagery of Abbott and Hockey at the meat works.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Ron Tandberg nails the hypocrisy of Hockey on smoking.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  48. HaHaHa LNPfilth

    Makes Peter Slipper look like an amatuer

    [A STATE MP has been exposed as a serial sexter, sending images to his secret mistress including a picture of his penis plonked in a glass of red wine.

    In addition, Ethics Committee chairman and Redlands LNP MP Peter Dowling has confirmed he accepted more than $20,000 in free upgraded flights although he was not required by parliamentary rules to declare them.

    He is also accused of taking advantage of parliamentary travel trips to meet his mistress in locations including Perth and New Zealand. The allegations are made in a letter from Mr Dowling’s former lover to Speaker Fiona Simpson.

    The Courier-Mail has seen several explicit text messages sent from Mr Dowling’s mobile phone to the woman, including a picture of his penis in a glass of red wine, a self-shot image of his crotch while wearing boxer shorts and a full frontal picture of his genitalia.

    “He wanted a Red Wine …,” Mr Dowling said in the text message sent with the image of his penis in the glass. Another image shows a grinning Mr Dowling holding the wine glass in a cheers salute.

    It is believed some of the pictures were taken in his parliamentary annex office.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sexting-mp-peter-dowling-sent-explicit-images-to-secret-mistress/story-fnihsrf2-1226691713991

  50. Morning all

    Early start today, shame about the rain killing of our chances last night. we will have to win back the Ashes this summer

    The $1.8 billion FBT “rort” is industry welfare by stealth and fully supported by Abbott

    What does Rupert want for his support of Abbott???

    Bring on day 2, have a great day all

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