Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll’s second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan’s weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. I’ll take that after the last few polls. No shift.

    Lets see what impact the debate and marriage equality might have.

    But the big one has to be the economy.

  2. Confessions.

    BK is Adelaide Hills. BOM not forecasting rough stuff, as far as I can tell.

    I thought I heard a little thunder here (coastal, south of city) neighbouring dogs barked but quiet again.

  4. [ I’ll take that after the last few polls. No shift.

    Lets see what impact the debate and marriage equality might have. ]

    I can confidently predict this one already … no shift.

    How much longer till the ALP realizes it is going nowhere fast (except perhaps to the opposition benches)?

  10. Probably till the evening of Setp 7 Player One – its too close to do otherwise.

    Its close. The myth that Abbott is running with this is one being run by Murdoch – polls arent supporting it.

    Yes, the LNP are ahead: but they arent bolting. Gimme this over mid-June any day. Galaxy came in at 51-49 last night.

    Anyone giving up at this point is just being silly.

  11. I have a smile every time anyone mentions Abbott and the former Treasurer Costello.

    What a comedy team…the original Abbott and Costello that is.

    What a disaster A & C will be for Australia

  16. We seem to a polling consensus on 52/48. A uniform 2% swing would cost Labor eight seats. I think most Labor people would think that not too bad a result after the events of the past year.

    My gossip today is that Labor is moderately optimistic about NSW and Qld: expecting to lose one or two in NSW (one being Dobell) and gain one or two (presumably Brisbane and Forde) in Qld. But they expect to lose two or three in Vic, and maybe one in SA. They are still worried about Lingiari. They now expect no change in WA, or in Tas – which contradicts Kevin B’s views, but that’s what I’m being told. That would make a net loss of five, a little better than the uniform 2% would produce, but broadly consistent.

  20. [ Anyone giving up at this point is just being silly. ]

    I’m not giving up. But we’re well into the race already, and some of the crowd are beginning to wonder just when Rudd is going to get off the starting blocks.

    Perhaps another week? Or two? Does Rudd want Abbott to get up a good head start first, just to make his victory look even more remarkable?

  23. Why doesn’t anyone bother with the Nationals vote.

    They are major players in the Coalition – major partners for the Libs in the 2pp.

    So ignored….yet so needed by the Liberals.

  25. Seems little doubt the PV has suffered a hit since the start of the campaign. Hard to see why, what was so good about last week for Abbott?

  29. Sean Tisme

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Campbell Newman continuing as the most popular Premier Australia has ever had.
    ———————————————————

    And Pol Pot was a misunderstood social worker

  31. [I think most Labor people would think that not too bad a result after the events of the past year. ]

    Yep. Not to mention the Senate, which is no longer in peril.

    This will matter very much, should Abbott win.

  32. Psephos

    Do you have any idea of whom the seats may be lost to. With Greens PUP and KAP that does not necessarily mean a LNP gain.

    I can see an inner city seat going Green for example. Maybe Dobell could go to Thomson and not Labor.

  33. William…

    There has been a lot of Newman bashing by some here and in the media with claims that Federal Labor can use Newmans gross unpopularity to try and nail Abbott.

    If you want to look for rubbish start there, clearly that line doesn’t match the reality of the polls.

    As to whether he is the most popular Premier in Australian history, I’m not too sure of any other Premier coming from outside of Parliament and reducing the opposition to a Maxi Taxi worth.

  34. [ Seems little doubt the PV has suffered a hit since the start of the campaign. Hard to see why, what was so good about last week for Abbott? ]

    Paradoxically, Abbott is such a poor a performer that every week he merely survives without the ALP landing a glove on him is actually a very good result for him.

    Oh god, I’m beginning to sound like Rosemour! 🙁

  35. [PPM: Rudd 46(-1), Abbott 37(+4)

    Who will win: Labor: 26, Coalition 54]

    Are people shifting their perception of Abbott the more likely a coalition win seems maybe?

  36. [Psephos, is two Qld seats a downgrading of previous expectations?]

    No I don’t think so. The initial Rudd surge in Qld was expected but so was its disappearance. After Brisbane and Forde, I’m told that Bonner and Flynn are regarded as the next best prospects.

  38. Psephos

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    We seem to a polling consensus on 52/48. A uniform 2% swing would cost Labor eight seats. I think most Labor people would think that not too bad a result after the events of the past year.

    =========================================================

    I would have expected more of a pick up in Qld as I was sure that the big swing against Labor at the last election was a lot to do with a favourite son of Qld being “sacked” as PM.

    With his return to the “big chair” I would have thought a large number would have come back to the fold

  40. [Do you have any idea of whom the seats may be lost to. With Greens PUP and KAP that does not necessarily mean a LNP gain. I can see an inner city seat going Green for example. Maybe Dobell could go to Thomson and not Labor.]

    My view: The Greens vote will fall, and Katter and Palmer will bomb. Since the Libs are preferencing Labor in Melbourne (in exchange for Labor prefs in Mallee), Bandt is in serious danger. Thomson will poll 10% if he’s lucky.

  41. My theory has always been that, ceteris paribus, PPM ought to approach 2PP (or at least PV) as an election closes.

    I mean – the more firm you are on voting for a party – presumably the more likely you are to approve of the leader.

    Again, dont know if stats bear this out: and it wont surprise me to find Abbott is a special case even if they do (PPM well below PV)

    Greens primary is 11 (+2) – as I suspected. Id expect that to tick down one or two after tonight. Marriage equality will give those who waver between ALP and GRN something to chew over.

  42. The way things are going KAP and PUP will have a very limited impact on the election result. Looks like being ALP/GRN v LNP.

  43. I guess it could be said that Rudd is the most popular Prime Minister has ever had (Kevin Kardashian) and yet he’s about to lose the election.

  45. [I would have expected more of a pick up in Qld as I was sure that the big swing against Labor at the last election was a lot to do with a favourite son of Qld being “sacked” as PM. With his return to the “big chair” I would have thought a large number would have come back to the fold.]

    Rudd’s polling in 2010 was as toxic in Qld as anywhere else. Despite that, there was some element of Ruddist backlash in the 2010 results. But I think the view that Rudd is especially popular in Qld is incorrect.

  47. davidwh

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    The way things are going KAP and PUP will have a very limited impact on the election result. Looks like being ALP/GRN v LNP.
    =====================================================

    ALP/GRN v Libs/LNP/Nationals plus Katter/Palmer

  48. [There has been a lot of Newman bashing by some here and in the media with claims that Federal Labor can use Newmans gross unpopularity to try and nail Abbott.

    If you want to look for rubbish start there, clearly that line doesn’t match the reality of the polls.

    As to whether he is the most popular Premier in Australian history, I’m not too sure of any other Premier coming from outside of Parliament and reducing the opposition to a Maxi Taxi worth.]

    None of that has to do with the fact that you’re completely making shit up when you say Newman is the most popular Premier in Australian history. He is currently outpolled by O’Farrell in regards to net satisfaction and straight 2PP voting. Also, I believe there are several former premiers who have rated higher at some point in their career.

    You’re resorting to spin and straw man arguments. You’re WRONG.

  49. I’m using my phone to post as my pc is having a personal moment. England now three down and 19 in front. Game on.

    I can’t seem to copy and paste from the last thread — poor timing — and can’t be bothered retyping it all.

    Go back and look if you’re interested.

  50. [ Rudd’s polling in 2010 was as toxic in Qld as anywhere else. Despite that, there was some element of Ruddist backlash in the 2010 results. But I think the view that Rudd is especially popular in Qld is incorrect. ]

    And Rudd has finally realized this as well. Hence dredging Peter Beattie out of retirement.

    “A New Way”. Yeah, right!

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