Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll’s second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan’s weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 42 of 43
1 … 41 42 43

  1. Dio
    [The evidence is Treasury being out by $106 B in four years.

    They are either incompetent or are putting out fiction to delay the shit hitting the fan.]

    Or these is too much uncertainty to get it anywhere near right.

  3. blackburnpseph@2039

    I think all such statements are just nonsense and betray the ignorance of the person making them.


    Bemused, I work a lot with forecasts, we are always given a range and there is always the discretion to use the pessimistic, optimistic or mid range forecasts. Methinks, that the government has veered toward the most optimistic in most cases until the last economic statement.

    Oh I see. So what you ‘think’ carries greater weight than what Treasury have said about providing a single value?

    An ‘accurate estimate’ is an oxymoron. If it was accurate, it wouldn’t be an estimate. So any estimate or forecast has to be taken as having a margin for error although it may still be given as a value representing the central point.

    So if you want any bias to be toward stimulus, why would you adjust a forecast so that you cut spending?

    I think the Govt has most likely just accepted the estimates given rather than adjust for any ideological bias.

    I should also point out that when forecasts are made, assumptions are made and should be explicitly stated. This is where forecasts can be influenced and the underlying assumptions are subject to challenge.

  5. blackburnpseph

    The Head of Treasury Dept has stated publicly that they don’t do ranges, never have, never will.

    There is a good reason for this.

  6. Diogenes, I’d almost always lay the blame at the feet of the relevant minister rather than the public servants. The public servants are just doing their jobs – which is providing advice requested by the Government to the Government. The way the Government asks for advice and what they do with that advice is completely up to them. That being said, the APS should be able to justify its advice, if asked to do so.

  7. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/fact-checker/is-kevin-rudd-right-that-gst-could-be-changed-without-the-states-20130813-2rthd.htmlgovernment could go ahead anyway.

    Finding

    A PolitiFact rating of “true” applies where a statement is accurate and there is nothing significant missing.

    PolitiFact rates Kevin Rudd’s claim about the GST “true”.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/fact-checker/is-kevin-rudd-right-that-gst-could-be-changed-without-the-states-20130813-2rthd.html#ixzz2bolACTCX

  10. BankIt ‏@OpenHousz 24m

    @RobOakeshott1 Rob, LNP will march into office without any costings and by blaming treasury.
    Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott

  11. “@Lauren__Wilson: Lib candidate for Greenway Jaymes Diaz bolts from the bus launch, still can’t name the 6 points to stop the boats #auscampaignHQ”

  14. triton@2049

    Dio

    The evidence is Treasury being out by $106 B in four years.

    They are either incompetent or are putting out fiction to delay the shit hitting the fan.


    Or these is too much uncertainty to get it anywhere near right.

    Yes. Old paradigms no longer hold.

  16. Diogenes@2000

    bemused

    It shows that Treasury estimates are not to be trusted. Seriously $106B out in four years. That’s just pathetic.

    And everyone said the estimates were extremely optimistic at the time so its not like it was a surprise.

    Dio, you can do whatever sums you like with numbers, that doesn’t make the results meaningful. What does adding all the figures together to get $106B correspond to in the real world?

  19. Just heard an astonishing comment on the 24 interview with the two grump old mean talking to Lyndal. John Flannery (why he’s being intervied who knows) opinioned that it’s best to break key policy promises in the first year of the Governments term as the voters will have forgotten by the time the next election rolls around.

    Memo to John, tell that to Julia RE the carbon tax.

  21. Demetriou should at least give some idea of when something will be announced. The whole AFL world has been hanging out since 9 am, but not a word and no word when there’ll be a word.

  24. Treasury has to project things like iron ore prices and the exchange rate and a host of other unknowables. Anyone who knows how to get those right would make a fortune on the markets, so it’s not surprising that Treasury can’t.

  27. 19th century British constitutional lawyer AV Dicey put it: “Parliament has the right to make or unmake any law whatever”.

    That includes the GST legislation

  28. Yes, what is wrong with Hockey these days? Is he on testosterone, or steroids? He always looks like such an aggressive wanker nowadays.

    Whatever he’s on,its not performance-enhancing.

  31. ltep

    I agree. I’m sure the Minister strongly encourages the public servants to review the numbers they don’t like and happily accept the numbers they do like.

  32. I was just reading some of the comments on the NBN debate. I’d like to send out a big “congratulations” to Malcolm Turnbull, whose constant lying about technology and large-scale infrastructure projects has managed to make people stupider and more ignorant than they previously were.

    Bravo.

  35. LTEP – there’s a special repository in the trousers for … y’know. Their fundamental positions or something like that.

  36. [Laura Tingle

    There are two possible explanations for how an opposition presenting itself as an alternative government could end up with an $11 billion hole in the cost of its election commitments.

    One is that they are liars, the other is that they are clunkheads. Actually, there is a third explanation: they are liars and clunkheads.

    But whatever the combination, they are not fit to govern.]

    Nothing changes.

  37. lefty

    [what is wrong with Hockey these days]

    He used to pretend to be genial with the Press and the general public.

    A dose of Opposition seems to have changes this.

  38. yove gotta love a scare campaign on the GST. must be hitting a raw nerve with Abbott. getting a bit testy on that I see. just a great big new tax on everything one would think. hilarious rolling in the aisles stuff I reckon.

  40. Rudd’s net approval has taken a big hit, now 45+ (-5), 43 – (+8)

    Abbott’s a smaller hit 37+ (-2), 51 – (0).

    Prefferd PM Rudd 47 (-3) – 35 (0).

  42. The Coalition do NOT need to release their costings.

    Labor has a $30 Billion Dollar black hole and the Australian people trust the Coalition to bring the budget back to surplus

  44. Diogenes

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

    ltep

    I agree. I’m sure the Minister strongly encourages the public servants to review the numbers they don’t like and happily accept the numbers they do like.
    ——————————————————-

    Number I don’t like = I’ve never liked the number 4, 3 is close, but 9 oh what a terrible number

    I like 2, 8, and 10. There are others but I could go about them for infinity

  48. Abbott/Hockey all the hangers on have stated they will release their costings.

    To not do so would just be another arrogant betrayal of the people

  49. Diogenes@2079

    ltep

    I agree. I’m sure the Minister strongly encourages the public servants to review the numbers they don’t like and happily accept the numbers they do like.

    So basically you’re assuming whatever suits you.

  50. [Laura Tingle

    There are two possible explanations for how an opposition presenting itself as an alternative government could end up with an $11 billion hole in the cost of its election commitments.

    One is that they are liars, the other is that they are clunkheads. Actually, there is a third explanation: they are liars and clunkheads.

    But whatever the combination, they are not fit to govern.]

    So, Laura is not really one for pulling her punches then?

Comments Page 42 of 43
1 … 41 42 43

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *