Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

From a glass-half-full Labor perspective, this week’s Newspoll shows an encouraging three-point lift on the primary vote. But it still corroborates the result of the most recent Nielsen survey in suggesting a solid win for the Coalition.

This week’s Newspoll finds Labor making a minor gain on two-party preferred, from 54-46 to 53-47. It comes despite a three-point improvement on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 47% and 9%, and the balance coming off others. The disparity is down to a set of numbers last time which suggested the rounding to two-party preferred had favoured Labor. The personal ratings are the first in a while where Kevin Rudd’s position hasn’t deteriorated, although this may be due to a bad sample for Labor last week. His approval rating is up one to 36% and his disapproval down two to 52%, while Tony Abbott continues improving steadily with approval up one to 42% and disapproval down two to 49%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased slightly, from 43-41 to 44-40. The sample is back to its normal size of a little over 1100, after being bumped up to over 1600 last week to allow for fortnightly aggregated state-level results from decent sample sizes.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated, up half a point on both measures. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 34.5%, the Coalition is up half a point to 45% and the Greens are up 1.5% to 11%. Full details including state breakdowns here. Here too the poll is back to a normal sample size, of 3419, after blowing out to 4515 for some reason last week.

The addition of Newspoll and Morgan to BludgerTrack finds two-party preferred moving 0.2% in the Coalition’s direction, but Labor gaining one on the seat projection. This is down to the confounding pattern of strong numbers for Labor in state breakdowns for Queensland, the latest examples being a 37% primary vote from last week’s Newspoll aggregate, 39% from Saturday’s Nielsen and 36% from today’s Morgan, compared with 33.6% at the 2010 election. This is flatly contradicted by all seat-level polling, most notably Saturday’s large-sample Newspoll of the eight most marginal Liberal National Party seats, which had the Labor primary vote down 4.5% from 2010. Due to the probability that seats selected for such polling will not be representative of the state at large, the model can only use the statewide results. So while the BludgerTrack vote and seat numbers look broadly in line with expectations in the other states, I suggest the projection of a three-seat gain in Queensland be treated with considerable caution.

Finally, Adelaide’s Sunday Mail brought us a Galaxy poll of 586 respondents in Hindmarsh, Labor’s most marginal seat in South Australia, which had the result at 50-50, a swing to the Liberals of 6%. I’m not sure if this was a live interview poll like Galaxy normally does, or an automated one such as they did last week for the first time with marginal seat polling in Sydney and Victoria. UPDATE: The poll was automated. The primary votes were 41% for Labor (44.7% at the 2010 election), 44% for the Liberals (38.6%) and 10% for the Greens (12.2%).

UPDATE: Essential Research is still at 50-50, but Labor is down two on the primary vote to 38% with the Greens surging three points to 11%, and the Coalition down one to 43%. The poll also finds 60% of Coalition supporters saying they will “definitely not change my mind” against only 46% for Labor, while 17% of respondents rating it “quite possible I will change my mind” against 11% of Coalition. Since I started paying attention a few years ago, I have never seen the Coalition fail to do better than Labor on this measure. I’m not sure whether this is a Coalition/Labor thing, or if it’s to do with the fact that every election I’ve been observing has been a bad one for Labor. Kevin Rudd’s net approval has moved into negative territory since a fortnight ago, his approval down four to 41% and disapproval up two to 45%. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 37% and up one on disapproval to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 43-34. Two points of encouragement for Labor: their parental leave scheme is favoured over the Coalition’s by 35% to 24%, and respondents were slightly more inclined to believe Labor rather than the Coalition would be able to pay for its commitments without spending cuts (41% thinking it very unlikely the Coalition could do so against 35% for Labor).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,645 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 29 of 33
1 … 28 29 30 … 33

  1. [Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 3m
    If the ALP really wants to slaughter the Libs on PPL, they need a “wow” child care policy. #qanda]

    Absolutely!

  7. [but you happily accept all the conditions they won for workers]

    Yes and I accept all the things the Romans gave us… I don’t need to praise them or listen to them today though

  9. Rubbish unions still ensure fair working conditions for people. Anybody who has sick leave,holiday pay,carer’s leave or superannuation owe it to a union. Not to mention minimum wage.

    If you or anybody in your family have any of these or have ever had them, you owe it to a union.

  13. A bit of a reality check for the ALP drones.

    The public service gets paid at full pay for 16 weeks and there are plenty of public servants earning over $100K and plenty $150K+ (and note that their PPL isn’t capped at $150K) plus the $100M that allows them to double dip in different layers of government.

    Less than 1% of women would be eligible for $75K based on ATO statistics (so in reality the proportion of PPL payouts of that level would be miniscule), whereas 90%+ will be the majority of women on low and median income levels. Thats the question that Shorten couldn’t bare to answer because he knows that the majority of the women WILL get more with the coalition PPL plan.

    As Eva Cox said

    “Feminist Eva Cox said Labor had been acting “hysterical” about the policy. “They are thinking how dare Abbott come up with a better scheme than us,” she said.”

    or Unionist in NSW

    “The architect of the Unions NSW scheme, Sydney Alliance director Amanda Tattersall described the opposition’s scheme as “world class”. “This policy is a great demonstration that Tony Abbott is far more in touch with the needs of working mums than Peter Reith,” Ms Tattersall said.”

  19. Re leadership change – Bill should just say “I did what I thought was best for Australia and I’ll live with the consequences”.

  24. zoidlord @ 1351

    Abbot’s PPL scheme costs $5.5 billion per year.

    Gross $5.5B in 2015-16

    About net $4.5B when you subtract additional personal tax collected; reduced family benefit payments & lower current Federal employee PPL costs & transfers of money from the states covering their reduced PPL costs.

    Current Labor PPL est. in 2015- 16 $2B

    So the additional cost is abt. $2.5b per year in 2015-16 funded by a 1.5% Profit Tax Levy on large businesses.

    Affordable

  29. Shorten getting skewered on his roll in ROLLING 2 sitting PMs.

    Exellent Q&A tonight. Made the ALP look like a bunch of trolls and Shorten a pathetic lying lowlife.

  30. Ok so $622.10 per week.

    So if you earn, what, less than about $60K you’re better off under Labor’s PPL, at least in per week terms?

  32. 1412

    There are of course the exceptions for those under 21 (which should be scrapped) and apprentices (which are in the process of going up significantly).

  35. cud chewer

    Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    So what is the minimum wage exactly?
    ———————————————————-

    that can vary as there is a state minimum wage and a federal minimum wage.

    so it depends on which state you are in and what their min wage is
    or
    whether or not you are covered by a Federal Award, if you are you get the Federal Minimum wage

  37. @morpheus/1413

    Because it’s way more than those who need money in the first place.

    $75,000 to have a kid (no future support after 6 months), when most of that money could be train someone who wants to work permanent job somewhere with all the equipment and training skills paid for.

    This is why $75,000 for six months is a waste of funding.

  38. Look Public servants get PPL paid by the government because the government is their employer, and they presumably had a great union which negotiated that wonderful condition for them.

    PPL should be paid by employers. However, when employers refuse to pay it, or if there is no union in the industry to negotiate it, then the government steps in at minimum wage.

    Abbott’s PPL is not a safety net, it’s a replacement for what should be paid by employers..at least that’s the way I understand it.And the government should be pressuring employers to fund PPL not have us paying it for them.

  39. yes morpheus ppl is a great scheme for lawyers earning 150k a year because their babys are worth more than the babys of nurses or factory workers. we will decide which babys are worth the most and how much they are worth.

  40. Unions had a place in Australia in the 60′s and 70′s

    Unions have a place today. Look at the USA for a place where unions are weak, with its armies of working poor. Have unions and unionists always been saints? No, nor have business.

  41. cud

    PMKR will be there. Its just will Abbott?

    Is he that stupid on high rating debate format of QandA to give PMKR a free kick. We saw how well that worked for Pyne.

  42. Tom the first and best

    Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    1412

    There are of course the exceptions for those under 21 (which should be scrapped) and apprentices (which are in the process of going up significantly).
    ======================================================

    Junior apprentices have been given a pay rise for the first time in 40 years.

    But the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWU) says the increase is “short sighted” as it does not apply to those already in a training program or apprenticeship.

    The AMWU applied to the Fair Work Commission for the first-year pay rate for apprentices to be increased from 42 per cent to 60 per cent of the adult rate.

    The Fair Work Commission has decided on Thursday it should be increased to 55 per cent of the adult wage from next year.

    It will see the pay of first-year apprentices who have completed Year 12 increase to $398.50 per week.

    The pay of second-year apprentices, who have also completed Year 12, will rise to 65 per cent of the adult wage.

  43. I would love to see Rudd on Q+A every night. The more people get to see him and get to see him talking about hard facts and sensible policies the more they like it.

  44. Public servants used to get 12 weeks maternity leave (not parental leave). When did it become 16 weeks for both men and women?

  46. 1369
    confessions
    [Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 17s
    The funniest thing is for all its toadying to the ‘free market’ think tanks, the ABC is going to get its guts ripped out by Abbott #qanda ]

    It’s pathetic, isn’t it. They seem to think that if they go easy on him he will return the favour. Damn fools. Just do your job, you cowards, he will sack you however you perform. At least go out with some integrity intact.

  48. Well under the Libs scheme they would legislate that the Public Servant’s baby would definitely be worth more than a janitor’s…

  49. cud chewer @1430

    No, on 60K the weekly wage is around $1200/week before tax (+ super) . On minimum wage its $622 before tax.

Comments Page 29 of 33
1 … 28 29 30 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *