Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

Galaxy has an on-trend national poll result plus more of its electorate-level automated polls, including the first such polling for the campaign from Western Australia.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:

• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.

• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.

• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).

• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.

• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.

UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)”

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  1. Murdoch doesn’t so long as he gets what he was after. Abbott’s arse was for sale ….. the whole party gave the arses to Newscorpse….now time for payment.

  2. Steve777

    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    The Franking credit impact is about $20 per $1,000 of income from one if the big companies affected by the levy for PPL. For a retiree whose income derives about 50% from medium to large Australian companies, this would amount to about 1% of their income – coincidentally about the same as that for the carbon tax, but without compensation.
    —————————————————-

    how about we add 1% to the top tax rate.

    Bet there would be some whinging then

  3. “A New Way” was focus group tested and performed well because it tied in with Rudd’s promise to ‘raise the standard’.

    The problem is, it doesn’t work in Government. They sounded like an Opposition from day one.

    I have it on good authority that Labor had already positively tested “Strength Through Jobs” as the slogan for a Gillard election. Far better.

  4. A friend has been telling me Herbert’s in the bag for Labor. The poll above tells a different story. Maybe Katter’s preferences will complicate matters.

  5. [I have it on good authority that Labor had already positively tested “Strength Through Jobs” as the slogan for a Gillard election. Far better.]

    And ties together the focus of the past two terms.

  6. So how is the MSM going to report this poll. Shift back to Labor? Labor Bounce?

    They have been so busy saying how dire the polling was over the last 24 hours.

  7. [Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 41m
    Seems voters have decided to hold their noses & back a party living on its reputation as a rational, moderate force when it is anything but.]

    It will come unstuck for them at some point. Question is how much damage the coalition can do to the country in the meantime.

  8. Its going to be interesting on Monday. News will come up with a distraction so no one has to report on PMKR at Qanda.

    Interesting to see what it is that is.

  9. [ “A New Way” was focus group tested and performed well because it tied in with Rudd’s promise to ‘raise the standard’.

    The problem is, it doesn’t work in Government. They sounded like an Opposition from day one. ]

    Absolutely. I’ve said exactly the same thing before. Rudd never either sounded or acted like a PM. He sounded like an opposition leader trying to make a (largely unconvincing) case for becoming PM.

    This had the unfortunate consequence of making Abbott look more plausible as PM than the actual PM. Once Rudd was back on centre stage, Abbott had to do nothing except remain on the sidelines while Rudd faffed about and stuffed up – day after day, brain fart after brain fart.

    Returning to Rudd has been an unmitigated disaster, and only those blinded by hatred and an insane desire for some kind of divine retribution could have ever believed it was going to be a good idea. It has most likely cost Labor not only this election, but a few more after this one besides.

    Is the ALP really so full of such strategic morons? They could – and should – have won this election easily. That they look likely to be defeated by an evangelical fruitloop backed by a pack of superannuated has-beens, with no credible policies and no vision for Australia just defies reason.

    I don’t think anyone but Rudd could have managed it.

  10. Alannah is very effective and will be a good rep for Perth. I’m just pissed Smith snatched his rent so we didn’t get the opportunity to vote him out. He owes Rudd big time.

  11. Player One – CRAP, this poll has the ALP losing 53-47, the same margin Howard lost by in 2007. Gillard was behind 57-43 when she was ousted

  12. I find Burqas offensive in the same way I find Bikie Colours offensive. They are a statement that they are different from society and that they reject our society.

  13. Simon Baker@66

    Player One – CRAP, this poll has the ALP losing 53-47, the same margin Howard lost by in 2007. Gillard was behind 57-43 when she was ousted

    Player One is, as you will come to realise, a concern troll and is totally consumed by hatred of Rudd to the point where it blinds her to reality.

    Quite a sad case. She needs help.

  14. Glory and Fess
    Are you having a lend of us?
    Strength through jobs is only 1 letter away from Strength through Joy (kraft durch freud) the Nazi compulsory leisure and social organisation.

    Perhaps they should rethink it and have something catchy like “work makes us free”

  15. Display Name – I’m not going to educate you on why Bikies have a 1% patch on their colours – it’s not as if they are positive contributors to our society.

  16. Crank

    These woman do no harm to you. When you prove they are dealing in drugs and gun running like bikie gangs then a case can be made for banning

  17. Player One 61# Gillard had a primary vote of 29%. And you telling that going back to Rudd is a unmitigated disaster? It would of been a disaster not going back to Rudd. Truth is they went back to Rudd too late. Gillard’s polling had been terrible for three years- the excuses of the “polling will pick up” and “it’s Rudd fault because of the white anting” got pretty tiresome by the end of Gillard’s Prime Minstership. Rudd was only given two months to turn this around- was always a long shot between the three point line and halfway. Anyone who seriously believe Gillard could of done better when we were on track to lose 40 seats with her is deluded. Also a third candidate would of just screamed out “NSW Labor”- Labor sacking a first term was the unmitigated disaster. Lets not ever speak of it again.

  18. Bemused/61
    I think the point is that Labour would have lost with Gillard, but the narrative would still be intact. Valiantly implementing Labor policies against the odds ..
    Now with he Rudd/Gillard/Rudd scenario, what will the narrative be for the next 10 years..only a record of dysfunction.

  19. [ Player One is, as you will come to realise, a concern troll and is totally consumed by hatred of Rudd to the point where it blinds her to reality. ]

    As usual, bemused. You are wrong on all counts.

    Do you even know what a “concern troll” is?

    And why do you keep referring to me as “her”?

  20. guytaur @75

    Where did I say they should be banned?

    And as for not doing any harm – I suggest you look at the wives of all the Islamic Terrorists who have recently been found guilty in Australia.

  21. that should be Bemused /69
    Also people forget that 29% was Gillard’s lowest point. It was 32% just before that and early this year it was 48% 2PP, but started deteriorating just before Rudd’s March shenanigans, which accelerated it.

  22. David and Player One

    Its not September 8 yet. Online polls like Essential are saying 50/50 as the leaders have said their internal polling is saying.

    A fact borne out by Abbott saying do not assume we have it won and vote local instead of national

  23. Bemused Indeed. Zoidlord, indeed the final Newspoll in 2010 under Rudd had it 52-48 to the ALP, the election result under Gillard was 50-50

  24. Woah I’m not saying Gillard would have done better than Rudd. I’m saying A New Way is a disaster of a slogan and said so at the time, and a slogan involving Jobs would have been a better option.

    Anyone suggesting Gillard would have got close to a 36/37 PV is kidding themselves.

  25. [ Also people forget that 29% was Gillard’s lowest point. It was 32% just before that and early this year it was 48% 2PP, but started deteriorating just before Rudd’s March shenanigans, which accelerated it. ]

    Please don’t undermine bemused’s narrative with facts!

  26. Crank

    Then why talk about the burka. Instead just say for security reasons faces have to be uncovered in certain areas like banks.

    As appalling as I find it when all is said and done its clothing. No more no less.

    The reasons why woman wear it can be addressed by education etc.

  27. [ Now with he Rudd/Gillard/Rudd scenario, what will the narrative be for the next 10 years..only a record of dysfunction.]

    And an inability to stand for anything except populism.

  28. Tomorrow’s SUNDAY TELEGRAPH front page takes hagiography to a whole new level.
    TONY ABBOTT THE MESSIAH is here to save Australia.
    Goodness knows what he has promised Rupert in exchange for the fawning media coverage.

  29. glory

    Yes Abbott and Rudd are saying it. What is more Rudd is campaigning in NT to get one seat that may make the difference.

    Remember Essential was closest last election. The other polls will come back towards it as the narrative polls fall away.

  30. [ Its not September 8 yet. Online polls like Essential are saying 50/50 as the leaders have said their internal polling is saying.

    A fact borne out by Abbott saying do not assume we have it won and vote local instead of national ]

    Of course. And I’m on record as saying I will preference Rudd over Abbott.

    And I still think Rudd has a (slight) chance of winning … unlike some here, who have already given up and are concerned only with “saving the furniture”

    But that doesn’t mean I have to like Rudd. I don’t. In fact, I despise him only slightly less than I despise Abbott. And judging by the polls, I’m not Robinson Crusoe in this.

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