GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:
• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.
• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.
• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).
• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.
• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.
UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.
There is a fake Ghost account William.
No, it’s not right.
ah crap
Dammit! Fakers.
@bluepill/1647
Yeah our electricity bills went up under liberal states govs.
That was way way too good to be true…
GhostWhoVote*D* is a fake twitter account.
William.. I guess no newspoll due tonight?
[1601
confessions
briefly:
Maybe it just feels like a dry winter.]
I think the warmth makes a difference. I was quite surprised by the rainfall. It has been drier than usual inland, but close to average along the South Coast for the last three months. The BOM is hours of fun 🙂
Quite possible for the ALP to gain that on the TPP, but I would be surprised if Rudd’s personal numbers improved that much!
There is a Newspoll, and it isn’t good
Sorry for not checking better before posting but it was on the Newspoll twitter hash.
There will be – but obviously not nice for ALP supporters.
[GhostWhoVote*D* is a fake twitter account.]
Has anyone seen Meguire Bob lately? 🙂
Newspoll is never before 10pm except that time Fairfax reported it early
Yes it’s a fake, but a clever one. The Voted is off the side of the screen so it’s not immediately obvious it’s not the real Ghost if you follow #Newspoll rather than @GhostWhoVotes. It contradicts the indicative results already released by Sky.
you know youre screwed when a fake poll is the only one that brings good news
bemused
Sky News is a disgrace. Their panel discussions are mainly dominated by right-wing rednecks. There is no suggestion of even an attempt to be fair.
I only have it as I love sport and international affairs, and you get a great coverage there.
Why did Sky not reveal the results, they usually do.
Paul Murray @PMOnAir 27m
Breaking @chriskkenny reports #Newspoll will show Abbott is now preferred PM, Rudd dissatisfaction is up & ALP’s 2PP has fallen.
Apparenty this is Wow and interesting
As usual – Sky is acting a cat with an injured bird, they know it’s good for them.
briefly:
Have you tried Met Eye? Pretty cool.
Good Labor launch. It would seem the US deputy sheriff is into baddies vs baddies. Wonder if Obama will be keen to deputise the moron?
Thats not “interesting”, Sky.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans 6m
And this from PB
#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 38 (-4) Disapprove 52 (+3)
#Newspoll Rudd: Approve 42 (+5) Disapprove 43 (-9)
[Christ you are a sour bunch.]
Actually, quite the opposite. I love life, I am grateful for everything I have and try to make the best of things.
You, on the other hand, are a bitter, envious loser. You spend all day, every day on here whinging about scary boat people, your hard dodged taxes going to making the country better and those bitchy feminazi women always throwing their weight around.
My guess from your posting behaviour is you do not get out much. Yes, you make trips to the grocery store and Centrelink appointments but that’s it. You probably don’t have any friends and absolutely no love life (no that checkout girl who smiles at you when you go shopping isn’t into you.)
This bitterness could be solved if you got out and enjoyed the world for what it is, instead of being resentful about everything. You might even start being a pleasant person to be around.
[The prediction of course is mine, all mine.]
It must be wrong then. Stick to script.
[Aussies aren’t going to put up with Labors shit for another 3 years]
Probably. But it’s all swings and roundabouts. Your lot will be in charge – which means you’ll have to actually identify solutions, rather than just highlight problems. Good luck with it. No amount of copy and paste and bumper stickers can substitute quality governing.
[Newspoll will show Abbott is now preferred PM, Rudd dissatisfaction is up & ALP’s 2PP has fallen.]
Sadness that the country is having a collective attack of the stupids. :monkey: preferred PM??
William and Kevin Bonham
Now this may seem an idiotic question.
But is it? So tricky is this stuff.
Nick X is allocating his preferences to the Nats then the Liberals then DLP. Then.. Unless I have got this totally wrong.
His associate, Stirling Griff, is allocating his preferences to Labor. Then assorted no ones.
Does it make a difference to preference flows if one were to nominate Griff as 1 and Nick as 2? Is this some weird confidence trick?
If that makes any sense at all. Seeing as the whole bizarre thing is incredibly difficult to fathom.
My guesses
TPP – 54-46
PPM – Abbott by 5
Hawke and Beattie in Forde
http://nofibs.com.au/2013/09/01/bob-n-beattie-bbq-stephaniedale22-reports/
Everyone in voterland knows Abbott is the next PM. The undecideds will break for him mostly. What we are seeing now in the approvals and PPM is an acceptance from average Joe that Abbott is going to be PM. He’s getting the little boost that all new PMs get. Just early
Imperial Madness
______________
A US writer in Counterpunch wonders if the “chemical warfare” story may not be similar to the “weapons of mass destruction” story we heard in 2003 and many were taken in by… the stories of Blair and Bush…remember 2003 ?
The US wants to remove Assad who is an ally of Iran.the real target ..just it wants to remove the regime in Tehran which controls vast reserves of oil and gas…all vital to the US economy
Is this new war cry against Syria just as falacious as the “MMD” scare of Bush/Blair in 2003 ??
….what is undoubted is the willingness of the Imperial US war machine to devestate Damascus and other Syrian cities as they have devestated Iraq and Libya
A great article fropm Counterpunch illustrates the similarities between 2003 and 2013
crikey whitey@1677
Nick’s associate is not allocating preferences anywhere. Rather Nick’s ticket has lodged two preference tickets so that half his votes go one way and half go the other. Half go Nats then Libs and half go to ALP. A vote for Nick X above the line is a vote for your preference to effectively split between the majors.
If you vote below the line you can vote for either of them 1 and direct your preferences however you like.
If it was me and I was a Nick X supporter I’d be sneaky and vote 1 below the line for Griff so that if Nick got a surplus on the first ballot my vote would continue on at full value. 🙂
CW, I gather you’re a bit confused about Nick Xenophon having two preference tickets. This does not mean one for him and one for his running mate – it means that above-the-line votes for the Nick Xenophon Group will go two ways when preferences are distributed, with half the vote following the first ticket and the other half following the second.
Both will go firstly to the Nationals, but that’s unlikely to matter because they’ll get knocked out early in the count. So half will go Liberal and half will go Labor. If the sixth seat is a contest between a major party and a minor, his preferences will go to the major party. But if it’s between any kind of right-wing party and any kind of left-wing party, they will equally divide either way.
Goodies and Baddies – This from Liberals that lied to you about WMD and Iraq
Watch QandA tomorrow night to get an appreciation of Abbott’s courage and policy depth.
[Sadness that the country is having a collective attack of the stupids. ]
To be fair, Australia has always had more than its fair share of those who in some combination are intellectually marginalised, indolent, venal, ignorant, irrationally fearful, xenophobic or anomic — which for the sake of brevity one may call “stupid”.
Tony Abbott’s insight was that he could, with the help of the Murdochracy, exploit his authentic stupidity to reach out to a disproportionate share of this critical demographic. The ALP saw the danger too late,and failed to try reducing the size of the demographic in 2007 — instead, trading on it with a leader who simply didn’t look stupid enough.
That was a classic blunder.
Carey
Good onya!
Look, will I be disappointed if Rabbott wins the election?
Bloody oath, but gee, it’s politics!
It’s turns and roundabouts.
No government stays forever but the biggest disappointment will be the feeling that ‘Murdoch’ won the election.
Here we go – abuse the electorate – always works.
I think I need to rephrase this:
[ If the sixth seat is a contest between a major party and a minor, his preferences will go to the major party. But if it’s between any kind of right-wing party and any kind of left-wing party, they will equally divide either way.]
Read this as:
[if it’s between any kind of right-wing party and any kind of left-wing party, they will equally divide either way, unless it’s One Nation, who he has put last. If it’s between Labor and the Greens, they will all go to Labor. If it’s between Liberal and, say, Family First, they will divide equally.]
@CC/1688
No, that’s what Abbott is doing by cutting payments, and punishing low income workers.
US propaganda… is 2013 just like 2003 ????
Is Assad getting the same treatment as that used against Saddam prior to the Iraq War ?
see article from Counterpunch
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/08/30/the-banality-of-empire/
Iran is an evil country who sponsors terrorism worldwide- look at the links between them and north korea.
Attacking syria is senseless.
The US no longer needs iran’s oil
And u are an anti-semetic bigot.
Been enjoying the chocolate at Max Brenner’s
Why would we need Abbott when things are so good now?
William Bowe@1683
http://www.aec.gov.au/election/sa/gvt.htm#g says Ticket 2 is Labor 3-4-5. Only Ticket 1 goes first to Nationals. http://www.aec.gov.au/election/sa/files/sa-gvt.pdf same.
zoidy @1690 – I suppose you think there is a $70 billion black hole in the costings too. I’m over your unfounded crap.
[1671
confessions
briefly:
Have you tried Met Eye? Pretty cool.]
No, but I will !!
@CC/1695
IF there wasn’t they would have revealed their costings already.
Only three days, two hours and 45 minutes until blissful election silence.
FFS it’s “rogue” not “rouge” you morons..
The only thing red around here should be your faces..
Okay, I was mis-remembering that about the Nationals. So just ignore the Nationals then (in SA at least).