ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 40
1 2 3 … 40

  1. [quote]44.The Reachtel primaries are:

    ALP: 35.3
    LNP: 44.2
    Green: 9.7
    PUP: 4.4
    KAP: 0.9

    So the primary figure reported by 7 is not 45 for LNP but 44.

    Will be interesting to see the state breakdowns later William.
    [/quote]

    Ignore my last post, it seems William may have reported the primary vote wrong.

    According to Yahoo, the Coalitions primary is down to 41.3%. PUP cannibilising Libs primary?

  3. Remember in NH 2008 when Hillary was behind Obama until she had a highly emotional interview and won the primary against all poll predictions, could Rudd’s ABC interview do the same?

  6. Morning all

    The Rabbott is well and truly giving me the shits. We have experienced the warmest winter on record here in Melbourne and he is carrying in about the carbon tax. What a fraud. Poor fellow my country.

  8. [Benji
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:47 am | PERMALINK
    The Reachtel primaries are:

    ALP: 35.3
    LNP: 44.2
    Green: 9.7
    PUP: 4.4
    KAP: 0.9

    So the primary figure reported by 7 is not 45 for LNP but 44.

    Will be interesting to see the state breakdowns later William.]

    The Lib primary is reported as 41.3% with a Nat primary of 2.9%

    You are right that the LNP vote should therefore be 44.2% rather than 45%. However, the Coalition TPP% from these primaries based on 2010 election preference distribution would actually be 53% to 47% by my calculations!

  9. [David Donovan

    The final draft of the last #Ashbygate story before the election has been received. It is a doozy. It will be up this morning.]

  10. Corbet also said that Fairfax has not engaged in a 6-8 month campaign against the government going as far as to disrespect the office of PM by publishing pictures of the PM in a funny suit.

    He was wishy washy on this point but it was clear what he was alluding to and Alberici did not push him on this point and he lacked the guts to just come out and name Murdoch.

  11. Morning all.

    Vote Liberal, crash consumer confidence.

    [Colin Barnett’s hardline State Budget has hit WA voters and shoppers with consumer confidence sliding in its wake.

    The WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry-Curtin University measure of consumer sentiment, to be released today, found almost one in every two shoppers believes the political environment is now weighing on them.

    While there has been continuing concern about how the Federal election would play out on consumers, the chamber’s survey is the first to show an impact from the State political landscape.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/18775038/wa-voters-lose-faith-in-political-process/

  16. [Meguire Bob said he was leaving due to all the right wing trolls complaints about his positivity.]

    There’s positivity and there’s something else.

  18. [grace pettigrew ‏@broomstick33 1h
    #abcrn According to FKelly we cannot wait for the political ad blackout at midnight tonight. Journalists are BORED with this election]

    [Andrew Elder ‏@awelder Protected account 51s
    @broomstick33 So that’s why they suck at reporting it ]

  20. socrates

    yes it is censorship but yes it is bad ad. it would have been banned anyway. i think getup should be cleverer under current climate …

  21. [David Donovan

    The final draft of the last #Ashbygate story before the election has been received. It is a doozy. It will be up this morning.]

    He keeps on saying this.

  22. Apparently TA believes that because he spent half his PC speech on “Carbon Tax”, that automatically gives him a mandate to call a DD if majority don’t support him.

    But what if no one was listening 😀

  23. [Abbott indicated he would stick to his proposed climate budget even if it appeared insufficient to enable Australia to meet its 2020 emissions reduction target. Was it lack of discipline, was it cockiness, or was it an act of brazen honesty?

    His blunt adherence to fiscal austerity ahead of Australia’s international climate treaty obligations may just yet bring the issue of climate change to life in the dying days of this election. It deepens the gulf between the Coalition, and Labor and the Greens, by promising a return to the climate renegadism and climate scepticism of the Howard era.]

    https://theconversation.com/soft-targets-no-caps-hot-world-abbott-clarifies-his-position-on-climate-policy-17761

    No, it is worse than that. Abbott’s policy throws truckloads of public money (much, much more than Australia spent on the fiscal stimulus during the GFC for eg) at trying to reach a 5% emissions reductions target.

    If Abbott is now saying he would spend the money anyway, even if the targets won’t be met, that is an appalling waste of public funds.

    But alas Labor has chosen not to attack Abbott for reckless fiscal profligacy, and so he can admit these things and there won’t be any blowback on him. *Sigh*

  24. lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:34 am | PERMALINK
    geoffrey

    Listening overnight to TA’s determination to use all constitutional means to destroy the “Carbon Tax”, I am seeing the same man who tried to bring down the Labor govt because he didn’t agree with the outcome of negotiations, which would have been respected in other jurisdictions.

    If he continues in this line, he will wreck all the conventions of parliament, just as he tried to wreck the Gillard govt with his continuous SSO stunts.

    ——— agree 100%. abbott is unspeakable. i do not wish him office at all …. but would not be very comfortable if supporting him put it that way. he is all we think plus more. embarrassment, uneducated, moralising, wrecker

  26. [Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:15 am | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob said he was leaving due to all the right wing trolls complaints about his positivity.]

    I really enjoyed his positivity.

  27. Dee

    As per usual Abbott talks out of both sides of his mouth. Dtiching Direct Action on one hand, but on the other only setting aside a fixed amount and when that runs out. Whatever……

  28. Probably throwing money away but I’ve dipped back in and had another bet on Labor on Betfair – took all the $27 and got the rest at $26. There is still plenty there on the lay side at $1.04 though

    The bets will either make for a even sadder night on Saturday or a even happier one 🙂

  30. meguire bob is truly bit of coward if left at last minute.

    others have maintained optimism without his theatre.
    ellis has bet each way today as well- after all his melodrama.

  32. yes kev uses free press argument too much … hope he is not simplistic on tat and does want reform – assume it is to not create more bad press, but he could do better

  34. Hows the Labor brains trust GST Scare idea coming along??

    According to the ALP Brains trust here it was a brilliant strategy to take despite Coalition supporters here pointing out it looked desperate and pathetic.

    Haven’t heard much about the GST Scare campaign for over a few weeks now so just wondering what happened to your brilliant Brains Trust strategy???

  36. Well look at that the NT News daily Abbott campaign spread called news. Negative story Rudd with story how Abbott delivers on job promises.

    Maybe the NT News has joined a nationwide contest of Murdoch papers to see who can be most corrupt.

    First prize for the lucky editor is to give Rupert a daily sponge bath. And you know they will just love it, having already discarded any sense of honesty decency to sell themselves in the hope getting a cuddle from Rupert and the hope of an octogenarian tongue bath.

    NT News as low trashy and dishonest as any Murdoch dog poo wrapper.

  38. Lol, swing is on to ALP??
    Gee you lefties get overly excited when the polls move a tad your way!
    Aren’t all the polls biased according to yourselves, but amazingly true when it favors you?
    “This is game on”! “We are going to win this”!, really?
    Deluding yourselves!

  39. Have had two lovely days with my sister in the city, what a wonderful city Sydney is walked around the Harbour took great photos to send to overseas friends who want to come over and visit

    Notice baby Sean on scrolling through last night comments wasn’t posting but one of his alter egos was flat out, with LNP lies on NBN

    Finally I have persuaded my sister to vote ALP in upper house plus 2 friends, they are frightened of TA getting control of both houses. First time for any of them, they live in a very safe LNP seat so don’t worry about the Reps, 😀

  40. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 3m
    G’day @ReachTEL, may I ask a qstion: do u include PUP & KAP in initial “which of these parties” qstn? If so, for how long have you been?]

  46. 16 degrees in Melbourne overnight.

    I wonder whether any of the 66% of Liberal supporters might just have had a glimmering of a sneaky thought that maybe, just maybe, Abbott was wrong when he opined that climate change is crap?

    There is one good thing about AGW. It will bite the Liberals in the bum.

    I do hope the firies have done the responsible thing and done their fuel reduction burns in time.

  48. Given the total loss of pretence of honesty and truth in much of the media, and the blanket carpet bombing of positive Abbott negative labor stories, it is a wonder Labor registers at all.

    Murdoch in his old age has not only decided to not give a toss but to give up any pretence. And it seems he has found enough vomit eating dogs in Australia to run his papers.

Comments Page 2 of 40
1 2 3 … 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *