The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
It’s my initial and birthday 😛
I’m not saying they can win lol – good lord no, I am saying that the polls are making assumptions which could prove unfounded, because we’ve not seen a vote this strong away from the majors in a long, long time.
these exit polls, and tonight’s results, will show this isn’t a vote for Abbott but rather a vote against Labor – looking like the LNP primary vote will go backwards on 2010
407
Kevin Bonham
[Just ran the final version of my experimental model and it improved one seat for Labor to 95-52-3.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/friday-federal-election-projection-model.html ]
Appreciate your work, Mr B.
[And a 2.5% TPP swing to the Libs]
That would be right on my PB punt if so ModLib.
Diogenes@764
How long before we see a Hitler in the Bunker spoof with rudd seeing the downfall coming?
[It’s my initial and birthday]
That was my guess when I first saw your screen name!
J341983 – did you vote in Old Parliament House?
i think the original intention was to demolish it when the new one got built – glad they didn’t.
Suggested listening for today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SIXpRVOQ9E
stupid freo.
This day just keeps getting worse.
AJM
At this stage even with those 52/48 exit polls it is looking like Tone will win although the mood seems to indicate that the voters are not breaking down the booth doors which suggests no real love or affection for Tone and Co.
lefty e
If Morgan’s exit poll 2PP is biased the same amount as last time (0.9% to ALP) then Labor gets 52.9% – which for me works out as 60 seats. Your “bet” with Mick might go down to the wire.
Yep: Both ALP & LNP primary vote going backwards on 2010 a/c to exit polls – anti-ALP rather than pro-LNP ,with minors raking the dividends. The margin depends on lot on where those minor prefs go.
But Im calling it already: this is NOT a landslide.
Newspapers, media, pollsters: pack a pair of 2nd undies, because you and your narrative are about to look pretty bloody stupid.
Come on, Antony, forget waiting until voting closes – just call it already, and put me out of my smurfing misery!
Of course, its too early for me to conclude the above : but I enjoyed doing it anyway, and surely thats the main thing 🙂
RR – yes, was very very busy but worth it
Dendrite – yep, could be tight on the bet with Mick.
And I KNOW he wasnt expecting that.
And now the footy on abc radio has disappeared.
Unreal.
Was that an ex-refugee in a Vote Liberal T-shirt I just saw on ABC9to5?
ALP primary has gone backwards 6% nationally
Lib primary 1-2%
Green vote dropped about 2%
Hmmmmm
Just got back from doing handing-out-HTV duty – yes, I know, I resigned from said duty in a hissy fit the other night, but I recanted – and, as usual, had a pretty good time.
It’s really the only time I can bear being within an inch of Coalition folk, and vice versa for them. It’s all very jolly bonhomie, hail fellow, well met, good cheer kind of stuff.
The bloke from the DLP (I’m pretty sure it was Frank McManus) had us all on our toes. Poor fellow had set up at the wrong hall and didn’t catch on till about 10am that the booth was 50 metres up the road. (None of us told him).
Anyway, his HTV stuff was of the slippery variety. And, it was quite windy. So, of course, every time he shuffled up to a voter to hand out a card, the rest would blow out of his hands. Which, because we were all being very nice, we’d chase after for him. Crafty bugger.
There was no gaiety from the voters. All rather sombre. Rusted-ons from both of the majors loudly proclaiming their rejections, and surprisingly quite a few Greens. And a lot of donkey voters too by the looks. And quite a few who hadn’t made up their mind. Have to say I slipped those voters a Labor HTV and said well, why not stick with the party with the best policies. And they thanked me, and said they would. But who knows.
But the HTV-hander-outerers had a lot of fun. Lots of laughter during the rare breaks. And some serious discussion from the Libs about Malcolm Turnbull. They reckon there’s a bit of rumbling below the surface. Well, I’ll take that with a grain of salt.
Some vehement anti-Rudd stuff. Some saying they’d have voted Labor if Gillard was still leader.
All in all, I’d say the booth was probably 60-40 Lib. No Nationals candidate. And included in the 40, the Greens voters, who were mostly disaffected Labor.
Only one sore spot. Every town has its known intellectually disabled people. It was disconcerting to say the least to see the Libs actively ferrying these folk in to vote.
We all had a great laugh, though, when the Libs (two of them) spent a good 15 minutes helping one elderly lady on a scooter (no disabled access at this booth) in and out of the booth – while the rest of us furiously took advantage of this lull in Lib HTV-handing-out – to find, when they escorted back that she hadn’t voted at all because there was no Sex Party candidate. 😆
The looks on the Libs was bloody priceless. The Lib bloke said to me, wtte never in all his born days . . . Shock and awe that such ignominy had backfired.
So, to recap. There were 2 Labor, 2 Libs, 1 DLP, 2 Greens, 1 Independent, and 1 PUP (who was mortified to learn that PUP had preferenced Libs and she was intending to vote Labor/Greens; she did it for the money!).
PS. Lucky I got out of there before the rain started. Sore kidneys from the stiff wind. But, at the bottle shop on the way home, managed to squeeze two extra votes for Labor when I reminded them to vote Labor to save their penalty rates. 🙂
ML – the Libs were paying Big Issue sellers in Canberra to wear Liberal t-shirts
[But Im calling it already: this is NOT a landslide.]
I’m happy for you.
I am not a footy fan any more, I used to be a crows fan but got sick of the AFL. AFL is a farce with the Essendon drug cheating scandal. But hopefully the ABC radio coverage is restored for those of you who are fans and want to listen.
“@scottdools: No thanks, Liberal volunteer, I don’t need a “how to vote” card I have this copy of the Daily Telegraph.”
I’ll be covering the election tonight for themercury.com.au . This is a paid gig so they will have my complete attention and alas you will not see me here until very late at night if at all (I’d say probably not).
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/election-night-arrangements-and.html
Above link has my election night arrangements and also my advice on election-watching hints and cautions.
I appreciate the interest of many here and also the great work done by those whose work I’ve used in my own stuff through this year, especially William (I’ve also used a lot from Mumble and Mark the Ballot).
I voted at South Hobart about 11. There were only HTVers for Liberal, Labor, Green, Wilkie and NTEU (NTEU advocating Wilkie in the House, Greens in Sentate).
Liberal HTV cards in Tassie are quite ideologically consistent (to a point) and have complete faith in their voters being able to copy a set of numbers.
Labor HTV cards in Tassie think their voters are sheep and make the card as donkey-vote-like as they like, including preffing the Liberals 2 in Lyons so their voters can donkey. Oh except in Denison where they went out of their way to break out of reverse-donkey order in order to preference the Liberals ahead of Wilkie.
lefty e and dendrite
Thanks for yr interest Dendrite but lefty and me will be meeting ‘up on this corner at around 7.30pm if youse wanna hang round and watch but it won’t be pretty! Labor won’t get even near lefty’s 61 seats or 47.3% 2PP.
Edi_Mahin
it’s back now.
[Was that an ex-refugee in a Vote Liberal T-shirt I just saw on ABC9to5]
How on earth would you know?
Wal – my overall point is where did those votes go? And where will they flow back to?
That to me is the biggest unknown – it doesn’t change the result (I think) but equally I think the results tonight could be surprising
mexicanbeemer@810
It was the arrogant smugness that got me – no qualification or even “extremely likely”s just “this is what’s going to happen”. The best part of a Labor win for me wouldn’t be the return of the government – it’d be all these idiots getting egg all over their faces.
People who predict the imminent collapse of the Green vote once the voters “wake up to them” are indulging in wishful thinking as the Green vote in Western democracies is generally at 10% or above. The Greens are not going to go away in the West anytime soon. In any case the Green vote in Australia is unlikely to decline significantly so long as the major parties in Australia continue to substantially ignore environmental issues.
pithicus
Freo are right in it. Geelong will keep getting frees when they drop their heads from ridiculously favourable umpires at home though.
kezza2 – Thanks. And your “diary” has given me my third laugh at work. I always thank all the people handing out the HTVs – and think of their counterparts in elections in places like Afghanistan.
J
[Wal – my overall point is where did those votes go? And where will they flow back to?]
Those votes have gone to vote heaven.
haha.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 17s
AEC staffer telling journalists to fuck off because this is democracy. 5 Stars
I’d say that too if I was AEC staffer.
Diogenes
I think freo are extremely well coached.
I have just been handing out Liberal HTVs at Telopea in the seat of Parramatta. It was interesting to note that 90% of Labor’s helpers were foreign backpackers who were being paid by the hour.
The voters came early in huge numbers. They obviously can’t wait to get rid of Labor and its useless leader
kezza:
😆
Sounds like you had a good day.
Oh dear, my comment is awaiting moderation, prob because swear word in twitter post.
J- i think south australia is a massive unknown.
Qld other voter will probably go to the lnp. I don’t think thats a suprise
Victoria not so clear cut either- 33% pv
I think Palmer is the protest vote and is pinching it of the ALP LNP and GRN.
Palmer could be a liberal plant (rafflesia)
AJM
I agree there is some smugness on Sky today, Peter Reith basically claimed that the people had spoken, when the journo suggested the result wasn’t known yet he was like yeah
If Rudd did win the first person i want on the T.V is Paul Murray, is there a bigger Tone fan
Chris Kenny calls it, Liberal Booths are swinging to the Liberals, he better hope this is not the norm.
Kevin Bonham. I hope your Mercury gig goes well and you get many more if you wish to have many more such gigs. Your blog is excellent, well done.
That’s the thing ‘probably’ is logical – but this election is not logical in many ways…
@ruawake/842
Are they not calling it too soon?
Kenny obviously wants liberals in sooner.
Slightly off topic. I have noticed nobody seems to get sin binned here anymore. Frank C used to manage it almost weekly.
“@AusElectoralCom: @mumbletwits @ChipRolley I can give you stat. 1.8m of the 3.2m early votes were cast at pre-polls in own division & into tonight’s count”
Ru
Well if seats like Nth Sydney and Higgins don’t swing then something is wrong.
Rocket Rocket @ 833
You’re welcome.
And, yes indeed, we are very lucky to be able to vote. I treasure it.
You must try doing the HTV for your party. It really is good fun.
I’m a bit wind burnt though, despite the cold. Reminds me of 1996, unfortunately. But that’s another story.
Frank Calamari was a real oyster.
I think he choked on one of his vegemite sandwhiches