Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

As the laying of charges against Liberal-turned-independent MP Geoff Shaw makes the Napthine government’s hold on power look a little shakier, Newspoll finds Victorian Labor moving into the lead.

Newspoll brings us a well-timed result of Victorian state voting intention, this being the usual bi-monthly result for July-August with a sample of 1144 respondents. It has Labor moving into the lead with 51-49 on two-party preferred, reversing the result of the last poll, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Personal ratings find Denis Napthine losing some honeymoon gloss, up five on disapproval to 31% and steady on approval at 53%. Daniel Andrews meanwhile is up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 32%, although Napthine’s lead as preferred premier is essentially unchanged at 47-25, compared with 49-26 last time. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Here’s how the full gamut of this term’s polling – 12 Newspolls and five ReachTELs – looks after being run through the BludgerTrack meat-grinder:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

Comments Page 4 of 43
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  1. Leone
    Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 9:54 am | PERMALINK
    The deluded world of a National MP.

    My very deluded MP Pruneface and his equally deluded voters, thank heavens not me. I put it on Twitter Leone and to my surprise quite a few retweets and agreement 😀

  2. WeWantPaul

    Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    So the boats stop tomorrow and

    My power bill goes down 10% from tomorrow.

    No excuses no surprises

    Abbott is a liar and a coward – no doubt day 1 will be delayed until P sits while he goes on a bike ride.
    —————————————————–

    got to keep claiming all those travel allowances.

    Taxpayers pay for every kilometre he rides for charity…the Abbott Family Foundation

  3. [David Morris ‏@dm_aus 12m
    @abcnews24 PM Abbott returns to old oath of allegiance to Queen. This is backward looking when shld have 100% undivided loyalty to Australia]

  8. Abbott is a liar and a coward – no doubt day 1 will be delayed until P sits while he goes on a bike ride.

    HoR was scheduled to sit first week in October. Apparently Abbott is pushing that back to Novmber.

    So much for being ready and prepared to run the country.

    No excuse no surprises

    Flag at half mast

  11. zoomster

    So Sophie loses in Local as well as Federal Gov.
    Let’s hope she doesn’t decide to go local – big frog in little pond, and all that!
    The staff on stress leave in Wangaratta are a disaster.

  12. [Sophie Mirabella says responsibility for defeat in Indi lies with her alone and she will not seek a recount. Congratulates McGowan.]

    Sounds like the experience has taught her some humility. Even the worst people can be improved by a bad experience.

  13. Oh how I sympathise with this statement.

    [David Horton ‏@watermelon_man 16m
    The swearing-in is like hearing the prison doors slam shut behind you.]

    Hasten to add I’ve never been in prison myself.

  14. For you Aussie Achmed
    Put your quote on twitter
    loved this tweet back amongst others

    Mari R ‏@randlight 3m
    So the boats stop tomorrow and My power bill goes down 10% from tomorrow. Wooppee
    Expand
    Angelo Ris ‏@AngeloRistevski 2m
    @randlight Oh, and if you work for the PS, you won’t have a job TOMORROW
    Hide conversation Reply

  15. Hoots of laughter from this house!

    [grace pettigrew ‏@broomstick33 21m
    #abcnews24 Swearing in Body Language? GG Bryce swerves aside as Abbott looks like he’s moving in for a kiss.]

  16. my say@102: look, I don’t have very much to say in favour of Shorten. The best that can be said about him is that he comes across pretty well in front of the TV cameras: far better than Albo. And I guess, being a disillusioned Liberal voter-cum-born again (“small g”) greenie, I’m more attuned to the Labor Right view of the world than Albo’s old-fashioned big government-big unions sort of agenda.

    And I don’t think Albo’s confrontational style – much as it is loved by loyal Labor supporters such as yourself – is a winner with the broader public.

    And, finally, I would like to know that everything has already come out that we are ever going to hear about support given by Albo to Ian Macdonald (basically, that Albo fought hard to stop IM being stripped of his preselection in 2006 before any firm evidence emerged of Macdonald’s dodgy dealings and that that was the end of it).

    Because, if there is anything more to come out re Albo and Macdonald that we haven’t heard yet – no matter how trivial and irrelevant it might be – this will be the major crusade of the Daily Telegraph and possibly other papers for the next three years.

  17. Uh oh. Looks like we might have a loon heading to the Senate:
    [Stan Steam2 ‏@StanSteam2 41s
    WTF!!! Liberal Democratic Party Senator-elect David Leyonhjelm says we should arm ‘good guys’ to stop ‘bad guy’ mass shootings….. #auspol ]

  21. mari

    Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    For you Aussie Achmed
    Put your quote on twitter
    loved this tweet back amongst others

    Mari R ‏@randlight 3m
    So the boats stop tomorrow and My power bill goes down 10% from tomorrow. Wooppee
    Expand
    Angelo Ris ‏@AngeloRistevski 2m
    @randlight Oh, and if you work for the PS, you won’t have a job TOMORROW
    Hide conversation Reply
    ——————————————–

    yep, saw that….cheers

  24. Oh another one. Think this most tweets at once I have seen Mr Rudd do.

    @KRuddMP: China, US & UK catching up with family, friends & recharging batteries. Also continuing commitment to nuclear disarmament with CTBTO. KRudd

  26. AFL dropping charges against Dr Reid in Essendon case. Looks like it will be ASADA and Wada and Medical Board to deal with that.

    “@GerardWhateley: AFL Statement: “The AFL accepts Dr (Bruce) Reid’s position and withdraws all charges against him, without penalty.””

  31. Whatever one thinks of Ms Mirabella, her concession statement was thoroughly gracious, and reflects well on her, especially when contrasted with the bombastic rubbish we have been having to put up with from Mr Palmer.

  33. [Whatever one thinks of Ms Mirabella, her concession statement was thoroughly gracious, and reflects well on her, especially when contrasted with the bombastic rubbish we have been having to put up with from Mr Palmer.]

    Doubtless it was written for her by head office. She is probably under sedation somewhere.

  35. So Nationals in charge like with Howard on Regional and Infrastructure means more neglect as most infrastructure is needed where people are in the cities.

    LNP have learnt nothing

  37. Abbott has conceded that the government will no longer seek to reach even the minimum 5 per cent emission reduction target if its reduced budget of $3 billion falls short of requirements.

    Good one!! Hope he explains to his kids why he wants to condemn future generations to a “hell on earth”.

  39. “@danielhurstbne: “It’s deteriorated” – Governor-General Quentin Bryce on incoming Attorney-General George Brandis’s signature #auspol #generalbanter”

  40. Abbott still campaigning apparently, even after the swearing in. Trying to convert the GG?

    [Whit Goughlam ‏@leftocentre 5m
    Fuck me!
    Stop the boats, carbon tax and economy at a swearing in.
    This doofus will be let loose overseas.]

  44. Apologies if this posted before.

    [George Megalogenis ‏@GMegalogenis 16 Sep
    Australian women:
    80% of @TonyAbbottMHR ‘s household
    53.3% of all professional jobs
    35.1% of managers
    5.3% of federal cabinet
    #boysclub]

  45. [153
    lizzie

    David Morris ‏@dm_aus 12m
    @abcnews24 PM Abbott returns to old oath of allegiance to Queen.]

    Through the looking glass with Mr Abbott.

  46. “@watermelon_man: So Tony I didn’t vote for you, I’d like you to represent me by keeping carbon price, CEFC, NBN and marine sanctuaries. For a start.”

  47. AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 11:20 am | PERMALINK
    Abbott has conceded that the government will no longer seek to reach even the minimum 5 per cent emission reduction target if its reduced budget of $3 billion falls short of requirements.

    Good one!! Hope he explains to his kids why he wants to condemn future generations to a “hell on earth”.

    ———-this is big reversal even before in office … it is weak logic, reduce budget so target cannot work. thanks for it … missed in media. profound lack of sincerity judgment …. may his days be hot, dizzy and short

  48. briefly

    I remember when we saw TA meeting the Queen at Buck.Palace, she had to guide him out of the room to stop him rabboting on.

    Ten years of upward progress on so much has been dumped.
    I’m really depressed today.

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