Bordered to the north by the Murray River, the electorate of Indi covers an area of northern Victoria including Wangaratta, Benalla and the border town of Wodonga. It produced one of the biggest boilovers of the 2013 election with the defeat of cabinet minister-in-waiting Sophie Mirabella at the hands of conservative independent Cathy McGowan, whose win marked the first time since 1931 that the seat was not in the hands of one of the main coalition parties. Indi has existed without interruption since federation and only ever won by Labor in 1910, 1914, 1928 (when Labor’s Paul Jones was elected unopposed after Country Party incumbent Robert Cook forgot to nominate) and 1929, from which time it shifted decisively to the conservatives. It was thereafter fought over between the Country Party and the Liberal Party (together with its predecessor the United Australia Party), the member from 1937 to 1949 being Country Party titan John “Black Jack” McEwen, who moved to the new seat of Murray with the expansion of parliament in 1949. The Nationals last held the seat in 1977, when their incumbent Mac Holten was defeated by Liberal candidate Ewen Cameron on Labor preferences. The Nationals contested in 2001 when Cameron’s successor Lou Lieberman retired, but managed only 12.3%.
The new Liberal member in 2001 was Sophie Panopoulos, a barrister and Australians for Constititutional Monarchy activist. Panopoulos married in 2006 and assumed her husband’s surname of Mirabella. Mirabella became noted for her aggressive parliamentary style, and was promoted to shadow cabinet in the innovation, industry, science and research portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009. McGowan’s challenge to Mirabella arose out of a local activist group called Voice for Indi, which initially declared itself set on “improving the political process in the electorate” rather than mounting an electoral challenge. The group says it resolved to field a candidate after Mirabella gave their concerns short shrift, informing them that the real concerns of her constituents aligned with her party leader’s oft-repeated soundbites.
The candidate nominated by Voice for Indi was Cathy McGowan, a rural affairs consultant and former regional councillor for the Victorian Farmers Federation who had once worked for Liberal member Ewen Cameron. With McGowan to rally behind, the organisation proved adept at fund-raising and use of social media, and it soon became apparent that it was succeeding in tapping into a perception that Mirabella was a Melburnian careerist with an insufficient connection to the local area. McGowan’s profile was further lifted when retiring New England independent Tony Windsor told the ABC’s Insiders program that the “nasty” Mirabella was the person he would least miss in politics, and that McGowan was an “excellent independent” whose campaign he might lend support.
Also lending McGowan support was Ken Jasper, who served Wangaratta and surrounding areas in state parliament for 34 years, retiring as member for Murray Valley at the 2010 election. McGowan appeared to benefit from friction between the coalition parties spilling over from the contest for Mallee, which the Liberals were seeking to win upon the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. Reports indicated that local Nationals had been quietly told they would not face disciplinary action if they lent support to McGowan.
McGowan went on to prevail after polling 31.2% to Mirabella’s 44.7%, which was down from 51.8% in 2010. This left McGowan well clear of the Labor candidate on 11.6%, down from 28.2%, and she was narrowly able to close the primary vote gap after picking up 79% of Labor and minor party preferences.
NB: Hat tip to Ben Raue at The Tally Room, whose Google Earth maps I’m using for the electoral boundaries displayed in the map above. Raue does tremendous work on his blog and deserves donations. Note also that you can get a slightly bigger image of the above map by clicking on it.
leftye @ 1187
Yep, leadershit, starting from Jan 2010 is the reason Labor are in opposition.
[Thank you for that post to Centre. I am not eloquent enough.]
Thanks Lizzie. I do my best and I’m glad you liked it.
Oooh did lizzie say something?
I’ll check 😈
mari
It is a lovely day, Tony is still Prime Minister and will be for the next 6 years at least, the birds are signing, the sky is more blue, Global warming is crap, they even had to changed its name, the Liars and backstabber has left politics or are on the back bench, 2 of the mainreason that Tony is PM are now trying to be leader of the ALP. Who has got it better then us
Opinion polls 3 years out from an election is always fun. Just wait for when the ALP try to block changes to Carbon tax, Asylum seeker etc and watch the polls then
Regarding the honeymoon period, first Abbott isn’t the type to get much of a honeymoon period being a reluctant choice I expect and second it’s Essential. Essential was the least accurate of the polls overall taking a long-term view of the polling. They mysteriously got closer to the real situation very late in the picture.
But generally I think the election was more about eliminating the old government rather than any real confidence in the new one. Abbott will sink or swim depending on what happens over the next two years and is in real danger of being a one-termer. But then he may surprise and pull off a miracle.
[What is occurring now is the juvenile delinquents now in office have made their own suppression of the facts at least as big a story as the boats themselves. ]
You leftists don’t need to know how, when or where Abbott is stopping the boats, the only thing you need to know is that the boats are stopped.
Abbott and Morrison are free to turn back boats without informing the enemy(people smugglers and seemingly Indonesia). If the left don’t like that… TOUGH.
The only thing Australians will care about is he get results and at the end of the day thats all that matters.
So what do the people smugglers think of Secret Squirrel Morrison’s boat cone of silence ? A five star 😆 .
[People smuggler ridicules Scott Morrison’s silence on boat arrivals
The smuggler, Dawood Amiri, told Fairfax Media that the policy “won’t change anything” from the syndicates’ point of view.
“When the boat is being rescued and the passengers on board see the Australian authorities, they call the Hawaladar from their satellite phone. Then the smuggler gets the money,” Amiri said.
“This new policy can work only if the Abbott minister buys all the satellite phones in Indonesia (like they want to buy the scrap boats),” Amiri said.
“That’s a stupid policy. The politicians are wasting their time.” ]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/people-smuggler-ridicules-scott-morrisons-silence-on-boat-arrivals-20130924-2ub2z.html#ixzz2flthDHrZ
Lizzie you are a norty girl.
I never said that the Greens are the only ones interested in the environment.
There are many sane people also interested in the environment.
People such as who agreed to the CPRS like Rudd/Wong/Turnbull/McFarlane.
You see, after Abbott won the no action on climate change leadership challenge over Turnbull by 1 vote, Rudd could have had the ammunition to call a DD – but only if the Loons had supported it, otherwise it would’ve presented a risk.
Imagine, a DD on the CPRS supported by Labor + 50% Coalition + Greens v Abbott and sceptics 😎
Now the Greens get nothing!
Actually, they get the bestest friend the environment ever had –
Beautiful 🙂
They deserve it!
Jackol:
[The Greens are here to stay. The ALP probably is as well. They have to work out how to be rivals while still being able to share common goals and work towards good policy outcomes, and for any such cooperation to not lead to public distaste for Labor-Greens cooperation.]
I agree, though you leave unstated what the two parties should do if there is a clash between achieving the shared goals and avoidance of ostensible “public distaste for Labor-Greens cooperation”.
It seems to me that good policy goals are a sine qua non and provided that discussion is substantive and civil and contested work orderly rather than fratricidal then one ought to leave perceptions about what the public makes of it to others.
Being ousted from government is not per se {note spelling democracy@work} a catastrophe nor even a disaster. What is important is to ensure that the discussion of public policy and the channels wthrough which it is realised is based on sound evidence and orderly process rather than populist whim or pandering to the folks screeching from the front page of the Daily Self-Interest.
If that is what becomes normative, then there never will be another Abbott-style wrecker and your party and its policy and leaderhip team will never again be at the mercy of some domestic or foreign thug’s agenda. The community itself will not permit it.
That’s where we need to get, IMO.
You lefties are hilarious, what did you think people smugglers would say?
If they turn around the boats, noone will want to employ our service of ferrying them from Indonesia to Indonesia, my piggy bank set up by the ALP would be ruined, I will be out of a job. I will have to sell my fleet of fishing boat at a great loss, and go look for a job in the ALP?
dovif
The birds are signing what? Flannery’s Climate Council petition. 😀
The Greens are here to stay – but Labor only get a PROBABLY as well.
Fair dinkum are they the full moon or what 😆
[So what do the people smugglers think of Secret Squirrel Morrison’s boat cone of silence ? ]
Oh because that’s a valid source.
We are at war with people smugglers and they will lie and deceive leftists to try and keep their multimillion dollar business going but Abbott and Morrison have the resolve to shut down their business that flourished under the Labor Government.
Sit back, relax, shut up and let the Coalition fix Labors mess.
Labor have learnt their lesson.
Keep away from the Greens, they’re bad news.
They’re (the Greens) now irrelevant anyway.
*gets something to eat – stay loony 🙂
mari Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 11:44 am @ 1190
Maybe something happened after the dinner.
And Liberal friendly Bernard Keane on Crikey is at it again.
Essential shows a 2% gain to Labor in the 2PP and the government a 2% drop – 51%-49%
How does Keane treat this?
Guess? Just one short, short paragraph on the real truth of “Death Of a Honeymoon” in less than three weeks.
On the other hand acres of words about “Preferred PM” crap, which as we know, means diddly squat at election time.
And I don’t buy the line “Oh, Abbott should not expect much of a honeymoon as the voter decided to get rid of Labor not vote him in.”
Those who 3-4 in 100 who essentially shifted their vote from Labor elsewhere, not totally to the two conservative parties, knew what they thought they were both voting for and against.
If the conservatives can continue to crow over ‘lowest vote since the War’ (PV now back to 37% incidentally) then “Death of a Honeymoon” or perhaps “Still Born New Government” is equally applicable.
People Smugglers clearly support the ALP position.
It’s been a real money earner for them… 50,000 illegals at $10,000 a pop, you do the maths.
Labor are the best friends the people smugglers have ever had.
dovif
For years we have known that satellite phones are used on the boats. For years we have heard how they ring numbers in Australia to call for help, speak to family members and even at times media outlets.
Morriscum’s cone of silence at the very most will only can only keep Australians in the dark. Everybody else would already know.
Turn back the boats .Brilliant idea, the smugglers will never think of sabotaging the boat……….oh wait.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 10m #Essential Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 (+2) L/NP 51 (-2) #auspol]
Got rid of RUdd, now to get rid of Abbott.
@Jackol 1196
[The existence of the Greens causes some in the ALP to view destruction of the Greens as a political imperative, sidelining policy discussion and formulation in order to ‘bash the Greens’.
But the same also appears true of some in the Greens – in vying with the ALP for voter support it appears there is a significant portion of the Greens who want to inflict wounds on the ALP ahead of achieving better policy outcomes.
I don’t agree with Boerwar’s assessment that the Greens’ existence is a fundamental impediment to a future progressive-ish government that has the stability to really tackle AGW and preservation of species, but I do see a lot of the political positioning of the Greens in the last 2 parliaments as unhelpful. As is the preoccupation with the destruction of the Greens from the Centres of the world.
The Greens are here to stay. The ALP probably is as well. They have to work out how to be rivals while still being able to share common goals and work towards good policy outcomes, and for any such cooperation to not lead to public distaste for Labor-Greens cooperation.]
I agree completely.
I’m a Greens voter who has always wholeheartedly supported Labor over the Coalition, and it truly frustrates me to see both progressive parties continually bickering when they should be putting the fight to the real enemy.
Fair enough, they’re two separate parties, with some substantial ideological differences, and are often in competition for the same voter base. There are always going to be points of contention and reasons for enmity between them. It would be a terrible idea for the Greens to just bend over and take it from their major party masters like the pathetic Nationals do, and Labor is justified in many of their criticisms of the Greens. That’s politics.
But a bit of pragmatism goes a long way. As a Greens supporter, I was continually dismayed when they would contribute to the endless onslaught of negativity during Gillard’s PMship. And likewise, the sheer hatred many Labor types hold towards the Greens, often seemingly just because they’re “stealing all these votes that are rightfully OURS!!”, both baffle and infuriate me.
Focus on the real enemy. His name is Tony, and he’s presently the Prime Minister.
[ We are at war with people smugglers and they will lie and deceive leftists to try and keep their multimillion dollar business going but Abbott and Morrison have the resolve to shut down their business that flourished under the Labor Government.]
Stop the boasts!
Seriously though… The notion that putting a ‘cone of silence’ over the entirety of asylum-seeker operations will somehow confuse or deter the people smugglers is total horsesh*t.
In other news, Centre still clearly has no idea how Double Dissolutions work.
poroti
That is why the labor govt did advertising on Melbourne radio. Those on the boats were calling their contacts in Melbourne to inform them of the rescue taking place etc.
[ And I don’t buy the line “Oh, Abbott should not expect much of a honeymoon as the voter decided to get rid of Labor not vote him in.”]
No, sounds about right to me.
Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 12:02 pm | Permalink
What is occurring now is the juvenile delinquents now in office have made their own suppression of the facts at least as big a story as the boats themselves.
You leftists don’t need to know how, when or where Abbott is stopping the boats, the only thing you need to know is that the boats are stopped.
==========================================================
And that’s why they are expanding Nauru and Manus. Because with the boats stopped they will need that extra accommodation for….mmm hang on…
Can’t have it both ways.
If the polls were bad, bad, for Labor for some time before the election and a change came about, then a 2% drop in 2PP just days after the “landslide” against Labor, is equally bad, bad news for Abbott.
Peak Abbott gone within three weeks. Peak coalition vote, gone within three weeks.
All down h8ill from here conservatives both in the poll front and every other which way.
One Trick One Term Tony in the making!
[Turn back the boats .Brilliant idea, the smugglers will never think of sabotaging the boat……….oh wait.]
Smugglers aren’t on the boats ningnong,
They are back in Indonesia doing the book keeping and collecting all those hundreds of millions of dollars under their roaring business under Labor.
The Indonesian crew meanwhile, may, or may not, want to turn back the boat when forced. If they turn back they get the bonus of not getting 10 years in jail.
Of course boats will be sunk, but we know that not all of them will… just as Howard turned back at least 4 boats which is an undeniable fact.
Sean
What is undeniable is that you are a firat class f wit
Poroti
the smugglers will never think of sabotaging the boat……….oh wait.
The question is whether they will end up in Indonesia after sabotaging the boats.
The Indonesians hated the ALP for the Cattle. It himiliated them. The boats increase significantly agter the Cattle fiasco. If Tony can negotiate, he can stop the boats again
[And that’s why they are expanding Nauru and Manus. Because with the boats stopped they will need that extra accommodation for….mmm hang on…]
Your brain fails you.
Nauru and Manus need to be expanded to deal with Labors mess… it’s going to take a while to stop Labors boats and the best way is by making sure every single person goes to offshore detention. EVERYONE GOES. This is in stark contrast to Labors lottery system where 1 in 100 went offshore.
Since when did our trolls become so dull? Were they always this way? Surely they can do better than repeat the same thing as each other hour after hour, day after day?
I demand a better quality of troll. We deserve a better quality of troll.
Do you have any skills through which you could help the Climate Council?
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1nqhDf-Yj_2xoqf2wYSiG0Koz5OfGpVRsk7rb2e68sXg/viewform?edit_requested=true
[If Tony can negotiate]
Ha!
The silence/information control is for domestic purposes.
Tism
What a wanker.
So too the fools who encourage his crap.
Free speech on PB or anywhere else should not allow or be based on outright lies.
In the real world Tism would be broke, since he would never have access to the major defence in defamation cases, that is that what he said was actually true.
DisplayName
I’d prefer trolls that write good English, too.
[Wayne Swan
I’ll tell you what’s next. Hiding the books: facebook.com/Wayne.Swan.MP?…]
SeanTisme:
[ Of course boats will be sunk, but we know that not all of them will… ]
Well, I’ll certainly sleep better knowing that. As long as only a few thousand people drown, all is right in the world.
FFS, what a twat.
Talk later……
Roger Miller
🙂
It’s simple, if Tonka Boy really was stopping the boats, then he would be shouting it from the rooftops.
That he has chosen to stop talking about the boats proves that he can’t stop shyte.
Tonka Boy Tony, fraud and one-term wonder.
Dovif
Live in your fool’s paradise you are well suited to it, your day of reckoning will come soon enough
I consider calling out so-called trolls bad form but I’ve been incredibly underwhelmed and disappointed by them recently. It’s like they’re not even trying :(.
Did the Coalition getting into power take all the joy out of trolling or something?
Roger
Dang me!
DN I will have to work harder on my Troll-skills.
You’d better find a rope and hang me.
Dovif 1229
Himiliated???? new word for you only problem is what does it mean? Poor fellow is excited with birds singing etc calm down and enjoy while you can,won’t last long :devil:
DWH, you’re a terrible troll. Sane, reasonably polite and friendly, the spelling and grammar abilities of a regular adult, an appalling lack of crass stupidities and inaccuracies in your posts.
Far more effort is required on your part.
I’ve just finished watching my recording of #QANDA …
Overall, I give Suzuki a 6/10 for this performance. He was a bit all over the place with the GMO issue and for me, unconvincing. IMO, the most significant problems with GMO lie not with the technology itself, but with the licencing and usage rights and the rather exaggerated claims here and there of the benefits it will bring. Some GMOs may pass feasibility tests with flying colours while others may be little better than scams. GMOs ought to be treated case by case — as are new drugs on the market.
I was also a little disappointed at his responses to the warming hiatus furphy. The reality is that every 30-year time series since about 1975 has shown both a warming planet and one that is warming at an increasing rate notwithstanding that not every year’s surface temperatures are individually warmer than those of the preceding year, or some other year plucked arbitrarily from the past. That’s the point here.
Moreover, the confidence intervals are a consideration. When Phil Jones was famously trolled a few years back on “no significant warming since 1995” the word “significant” was not appraised in the popular press. “Significant” here meant sigma-5 — 95% confidence levels — which by convention was the standard. If the confidence level had been 90% then the warming would have been seen as significant. Indeed, IIRC, the data they had would have been significant at 92.7%. Interestingly, if you started the time series a year either side you’d have got sigma-5 significance.
The really troubling question was why such a small sample — 15 years — was so close even in these cherry-picked years to being significant. I don’t know why this wasn’t at the front of his mind.
I also wasn’t all that keen on his line of argument about gaoling politicians for willful blindness — and he seemed a little shamefaced about his rhetorical overreach, backpedalling somewhat. In practice, gaoling someone like Tony Abbott when he is in his 80s because 30 years earlier he was a reckless fool on climate policy (and much else) sounds impracticable. I certainly agree that it might be useful to force them to account publicly for their willful blindness in some tribunal and to make it possible to for public interest groups to sue those recklessly spreading disinformation (or suppressing information) on climate change (and other important public policies). Suzuki spoke of climate scientists in Canada forbidden from speaking up, and that may well have been what he was thinking of.
That all said he did seem to engage very well with the audience and made some useful points about the kinds of framework needed to ground good policy. Given his audience was stacked with deniers and TJ barracking as well, he has done pretty well.
Asha darn and I have been trying so hard too 😉
DN and I like to play games. We are much alike I think even though DN fell on the wrong side of the fence 🙂