BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 52
1 2 3 4 … 52

  5. lizzie@103


    It’s the medicine part that really angers me.

    ‏@bencubby 9h
    Leaked draft of ‘free trade’ deal shows Australians could pay more for medicine, movies, music & software. http://bit.ly/1a4dZdL #wikileaks

    It just boggles the mind that the tories would even consider agreeing to this.

    Haven’t seen a Labor position but Gillard gave a definite NO to something along the same lines in the past.

    Anyone know if it requires a vote in the Parliament ?

  7. BK@104


    lizzie
    I can see Australia being walked right over with this FTA.

    Which is part of the reason China is asking for stuff Australia can never say yes to.

    Precedent set with the original US FTA.

  8. Surprise, surprise. Not!

    [THE Abbott government has flagged new rules that would prevent Labor interrupting the proceedings of the House by seeking to suspend standing orders, as the Coalition did more than 80 times in the last parliament.

    Under the proposed change, only a minister would be able to move, without notice, a suspension to standing orders.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/christopher-pyne-flags-clampdown-on-parliament-tactic/story-fn59niix-1226759538570

  10. [margo kingston
    In my day there was a convention that new govts did not inquire into previous govt mistakes. All new rules for Abbott. He’s a killer.]

  12. confessions@108

    [ THE Abbott government has flagged new rules that would prevent Labor interrupting the proceedings of the House by seeking to suspend standing orders, as the Coalition did more than 80 times in the last parliament.

    Under the proposed change, only a minister would be able to move, without notice, a suspension to standing orders. ]

    The clampdown continues across the board, the opposite of what he promised –

    [ You want a grown-up government like the ones that John Howard used to run.

    …My ministers will not need to learn how to be a good government because they have been one before.

    I am offering what should be normal: careful, collegial, consultative, straightforward government that says what it means and does what it says. ]

    abbott’s version of normal – close the normal open nature of our democracy – across the board.

  15. I wonder what they are cooking up for us.

    [Australia’s richest woman, Gina Rinehart, invited a small group of Coalition friends for drinks in her private hotel suite, after planning a secret flight to Canberra to visit the Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce.

    Some of Mrs Rinehart’s closest political friends, the Speaker Bronwyn Bishop and Liberal Party senators Cory Bernardi and Michaelia Cash, were invited to join the billionaire for the intimate gathering on Wednesday night.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gina-rinehart-meets-coalition-mps-in-secret-trip-to-canberra-20131113-2xh77.html#ixzz2kZQ9cS1Q

  20. [Jennifer ‏@conceravota 1m
    Noticed last night TA 730 used self-hypnosis trick of holding a coin(?) between thumb/forefinger to stay on message. Gift fr Peta?]

    I find this hilarious. Robot Tony?

  21. Hi all

    You could do a lot better things with $25m. The pink batts Royal Inquisition is just another look over there for the media whilst the Coalition get on with some really nasty stuff.

    BTW – Abbott’s speech last night RE Rudd’s resignation was voted 100% pathetic in our house.

  30. Morning Bludgers Glorious day here on MNC and better still cos I’ve just found out I don’t have to have an op. Hate that anaesthetic and pain 🙂

    Looks as tho PMTone has stopped putting product in his hair.

  31. guytaur

    If the victorian speaker has the support of the house, he had better get his arse back to the chamber and test it. This is embarrassing for the coalition

  35. Many of the lefties here think it’s wonderful that low-lifes like Assange and Snowden betray their democratic countries with exposure of confidential and potential security-sensitive info which could cost lives. So why the horror at Rudd’s hidden corre with Garrett et al being exposed at a Royal Commission, particularly when Aussies possibly died as a result of Rudd’s stupidity or perhaps criminal negligence?

  37. lizzie@110


    margo kingston
    In my day there was a convention that new govts did not inquire into previous govt mistakes. All new rules for Abbott. He’s a killer.

    Having politicised the ADF its now the judiciary’s turn.

    He is dreaming if he thinks he and the tories won’t be involved in matters which will invite enquiry.

    He is also dreaming if he thinks Labor will not return the favour.

    Bend over voters – this is what your votes delivered and its just getting started.

    If you think its not going to bite you, think again.

  46. “@senatormilne: Greens will stand up to Abbott on climate change and will vote down his repeal of climate bills. No time for equivocation and doubt. #auspol”

    Thats how you do it Labor. Stand strong without tearing down you ally in the Senate

  48. After 7 or 8 enquiries into the home insulation thing which demonstrated fairly clearly that ignorant/under-trained/careless/young people risk life and limb while climbing in and out of roofs where there if old/new electrical wiring, calls into question the purpose of yet another enquiry – other than politics.

    The fact that the Coalition of the day were implying that Rudd/Garrett were personally responsible for the (very few) deaths, shows that there is no cess pit too deep for some conservatives to get into.

    Of course, what is sauce for the goose must be sauce for the gander so I guess any program concocted by the conservatives which leads to the death of individuals can be sheeted home to Abbott – personally?

    One thing is for certain over the years, the conservatives have taken us into more useless wars than any other group, and that is why the Liberals copped it at the time of the Vietnam war – not to mention Iraq more recently, when, it must be remembered not one of Murdoch’s editors spoke against that colonial war.

    I suppose by the standards of the conservatives Murdoch and his editors, and the LNP – should be in line for having blood on their hands?

    A continual and daily feed of hypocrisy from our red neck mouthpieces here.

  49. Astrobleme @ 100

    Good link. Over at the denialists they were rabbiting on about SSTs and turning a blind eye to deeper heat.

    The new normal is more energy in the ocean and higher base sea levels. Haiyan was, in terms of physics, an expression of these two new normals.

    IMHO, there is very little doubt that the denialists have blood on their hands with respect to Haiyan, and that Typhoon Tony, handmaiden to King Coal, has earned his name.

Comments Page 3 of 52
1 2 3 4 … 52

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *