BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  2. Bushfire Bill @3295
    Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 5:49 am | Permalink
    ‘
    ‘
    ‘
    ‘
    He (Abbott) also broke all the conventions an talking down the national interest in economics and foreign affairs for personal political gain. And now he isn’t even being paid the same back by Labor. Shorten is obeying the very conventions in the national interest that Abbott and Bishop deliberately ignored for partisan political gain. He is reaping Karma. It is very very well deserved, and more.

    It is a shame the Country has to pay for his traitorous disgusting immoral and stupid behaviour. But then a lot of people in our country were stupid enough to vote for him, and they deserve any pain headed their way.

    —————————————————————-

    It strikes me that Bill’s mob are seriously in danger of being the real ‘adults’ in the house.

  3. Morning all. Looks like Tony Abbott, the statesman in speedos, has guaranteed the Indonesians will not help him deliver his asylum seeker policy.
    [“How can we do all this if we are not sure that there is no tapping of our military, which is working for the interests of the two countries?” Dr Yudhoyono said.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesia-halts-all-military-cooperation-20131120-2xw20.html#ixzz2lDW9JYfD

    Even the Murdoch press wil have trouble spinning this.

  7. Socrates
    Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 6:51 am | Permalink
    Morning all. Looks like Tony Abbott, the statesman in speedos, has guaranteed the Indonesians will not help him deliver his asylum seeker policy
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Even the Murdoch press wil have trouble spinning this.

    ——————————————————

    Mate, the Murdoch Press is the most obnoxious, dishonest, despicable organization on the planet, only matched by the government they own/control.

    They will either spin it in the sock-puppet’s favour or ignore it completely.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    It’s wall to wall “spy scandal” this morning. The basic story is that “Abbott has not made the right noises”. That’s being polite.
    Yes, the relationship is going well.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesia-halts-all-military-cooperation-20131120-2xw20.html
    And the classy Mark Textor really helps things along.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abusive-tweets-from-top-liberal-party-pollster-20131120-2xvwb.html
    Abbott said it was easy to pick up the phone to speak to the President of tinpot Nauru but in the case of a real international player . . . ?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/pm-try-the-telephone-forget-the-megaphone-20131120-2xvyb.html
    This is something the Opposition can factually and continually hammer Turnbull with. For instance, what has been factored into Fraudband costing for maintenance of the copper network over what period of time and to what minimum performance standard?
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/telstras-copper-is-nearly-beyond-repair-and-an-absolute-disgrace-union-20131120-hv3mp.html
    And here’s something else.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/carbon-price-achieves-emissions-well-ahead-of-target-20131120-2xvup.html
    Hey George, is crawling to Andrew Bolt worth all this?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indigenous-ethnic-groups-unite-against-law-changes-20131120-2xvwe.html
    We should be quaking in our boots. Mesma and the US FTA.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-ministger-julie-bishop-talks-on-tpp-us-military-pivot-to-asia-20131120-2xvwc.html
    You got sprung, George.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/plans-for-second-george-brandis-library-shelved-20131120-2xuao.html

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Barney Zwartz has a good article on how the abuses and cover up fallout will land at the feet of ordinary Catholics.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/catholic-church-at-critical-juncture-20131120-2xvf3.html
    David Pope’s Ja’mie Abbott again, just because it was so good.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    A good indication of Abbott’s dilemma by Ron Tandberg.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    MUST SEE!! David Rowe with Abbott’s First Test.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  13. “@LisaMillar: Last question from ABC’s Jane Cowan to @JulieBishopMP – ‘we do not discuss intelligence matters, certainly not allegations””

  15. sprocket machine translation of opening sentence from your link:

    [Amid rising tension between australia and indonesia, issues related to tapping a politician australia from the liberal party will make comments can memperkeruh atmosphere.]

    The machine didn’t do ‘memperkeruh’. I imagine that Abbott would tell us that it means ‘improve significantly’.

  16. Brandis should be congratulated. His proposed changes to the racial discrimination laws has almost brought about world peace…

    Look at the list of communities who are against his stupidity.- That’s rather amazing….

    Australia’s indigenous, Jewish, Arab, Chinese, Greek, Armenian, Lebanese and Muslim populations

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indigenous-ethnic-groups-unite-against-law-changes-20131120-2xvwe.html#ixzz2lDd96iYB

  17. BK

    Rowe is a genius. It is the little touches. The ‘NO’ shaved into the chest hair is standard by now.

    But the tiny little detail of the stump cam!

  18. liyana
    The Textor stuff, the hanging around with the Joneses the Burka bashing MPs pretty well delineates a critical element of the Coalition: it is largely an anglobubble.

    They just don’t get Indonesia. They don’t get the lived discriminatory experiences of non-anglo minorities.

  21. And from the Land of the Free –

    Some pre-Thanksgiving cartoons.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/20/cartoons-of-the-day-pre-thanksgiving/
    The Repugs are losing much ground on their ObamaCare obstruction and lie mongering.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/19/whaddya-know-obamacare-enrollment-surging-in-many-states/
    They are bloody hopeless!
    http://crooksandliars.com/juanita-jean/yeah-no-under-god-because-he-was-born
    http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/scotus-refuses-block-texas-abortion
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/20/1257065/-Oprah-talks-about-race-Fox-News-freaks-nbsp-out
    Stephen Colbert gets stuck into Michelle Bachman (and others). Note her claim about carbon dioxide.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/colbert-skewers-bachmann-calling-herself
    George Zimmerman is not looking in good shape leading up to his trial.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/prosecutor-zimmerman-bail-hearing-says-he
    A Seattle chorus – “Every Sperm is Sacred”.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017159785

  22. mari
    The Fairfax cartoons for today aren’t up yet for some reason.

    Boerwar

    Also Abbott’s box was another little detail. Mesma in the “crowd”.

  23. “@702sydney: ‘The Australian government has really not stepped up at all’ says @Greenpeace as Oz man now the only activist still detained in Russia”

  24. Morning bludgers

    David Rowe comes up with another beauty today.

    OH brought home the hard copy of the Herald Sun. Flicked through the paper and saw a full page by the Dolt. Headline

    Hatred of PM is driving betrayal

    And side headline

    Abbott must take on the ABC

  25. FFS I could only digest the first sentence, but it appears that the ABC is at fault for the mess Abbott is in with Indonesia.
    Andrew Bolt is a bona fide disgrace

  27. Thanks BK, the Rowe cartoon is priceless. I agree on all the details, but I love the look on Abbott’s face most.

    He also could have drawn him walking back to the pavilion, dismissed for a duck, with SBY the umpire.

  28. I think the LOTO is thinking wisely and/or is getting good advice.

    For the first time in years there is an event happening which is “favourable” to Labor and they are letting it run without doing something to change the headlines and remove the oxygen from the issue at hand.

    Shorten has carefully allowed Abbott to remain the headline and today it’s on pretty well every masthead. And Abbott and his team and supporters continue to prosecute their own stupidity with aplomb.

    Hope I haven’t spoken too soon.

  31. Where is Bolt comdemning Mark Textor for his highly offensive tweets. For goodness sake, they have made it to the Indonesian media. If Abbott was in the doghouse before, Textor has only made matters 100 times worse

  33. Boerwar

    the Indonesian/Malay root word is “keruh”, which means dark, feculence, feculent, turbid, muddy, clouded – notably how water can sometimes appear.

    the “memper-” construct at the front of a root word often will denote a contextual or allegorical meaning derived from the root word.

    so they are saying that Mark Textor’s contribution has somehow made the atmosphere between the two nations a bit more “dark, feculence, feculent, turbid, muddy, clouded”

  34. On previous thread and reposted by BB as it was a great post. Agreed therefore reposting it on this thread.

    [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 5:49 am | PERMALINK
    WeWantPaul, your #3246 was a seriously magnificent comment. Worth repeating:

    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, November 20, 2013 at 10:53 pm | PERMALINK

    This place has gone seriously crazy. If I didn’t know better I may have thought I had stumbled into an Indonesian blog

    .

    A spat with Indonesia would usually be largely irrelevant in Australia, but Abbott, is he the stupidest PM the world has ever seen, raised to issues, that if looked at in a reasonable way are both almost irrelevant to super important.

    Firstly the naughty cow slaughter and suspension of trade, was made a failure of the labor government of monumental proportions. And the Indonesian relationship given more importance than it really does have on an objective basis.

    Then you take Abbott’s stupidity with unauthorised boat arrivals many of whom are going to claim to be refugees and most of whom are actually refugees under current rules. He made this a really really big deal for personal gain. He insulted the Indonesians for the same personal gain. He made the boat people the ‘greatest humanitarian’ crisis in the history of universe and then mishandled the Snowden leak crisis in a way so bad most primary school kids could have done better.

    He also broke all the conventions an talking down the national interest in economics and foreign affairs for personal political gain. And now he isn’t even being paid the same back by Labor. Shorten is obeying the very conventions in the national interest that Abbott and Bishop deliberately ignored for partisan political gain. He is reaping Karma. It is very very well deserved, and more.

    It is a shame the Country has to pay for his traitorous disgusting immoral and stupid behaviour. But then a lot of people in our country were stupid enough to vote for him, and they deserve any pain headed their way.]

  35. Given Julie Bishop has said exactly the same thing and Textor’s tweets shines a light on the thinking of those close to government.

    How worse will it get before it gets better? The $64 000 question.

  36. Victoria
    [I seriously could not get passed the first sentence]
    That reflects well on you 🙂

    At this point they should rename it Operation Brain Dead Sovereign or
    Operation Borderline Insane. I am not referring to SBY.

  39. For the past few days the resident Abbott team here have argued that no apology is needed and none should be given.

    The self confessed self endorser Psephos has confidently concurred.

    Yesterday 2 ex Indonesia ambassadors McArthy and Flood, both Howard appointees poo-pooed the idea of apology.

    But last night Proff Huw White, arguably the epitome of strategic advisors in the country, and today Proff Damian Kingsbury have strongly and articulately argued the opposite.

    Both see the original issue as a lowish grade matter which should have been easily massaged through.

    Both state that Abbott has been hopeless and has turned the matter into a significant crisis of growing importance as each hour of his incompetence ticks by.

    Both state that a few well chosen words by Abbott to SBY would have nipped it in the bud.

    Clearly this is a self wedge by our fool of PM.

    As to the ultimate national cost, if SBY was to be the long term leader, things might not look too dire assuming Abbott finally does the right thing.

    But here is the greatest risk to our country. What if Indonesia elects a new leader of the same quality as we regrettably did.

  40. Morning all.

    [On the front page of Indonesian leading newspaper, Kompas, is Mark Textor and his “Pilipino Porn Star” jibe

    http://www.kompas.com/ ]

    Like I said, thank heavens the adults are back in charge. Imagine how bad things would be if our govt and its advisors were a bunch of belligerent yobs.

  41. guytaur

    if Abbott gave a public apology and reassurance that phone tapping will not occur in future, the indonesian govt would still have a very strained relationship with Him and his govt. JBishop, SMorrison together with Abbott have carried on day in day out about turning the boats back to indonesia and during the election of buying their citizens’ fishing boats. Until the coalition are out of power, i cant see it being sorted. Or course and unless Abbott gives ground to the indonesians on something they may be coveting.

  42. victoria

    Yes that is the sticking point for the right wing. All election campaign and up to now has been boats, buy turn or tow.

    This is why to repair the relationship Abbott has to at minimum apologise. Better would be to stop putting the “burden” on Indonesia and change his boat policy. That policy has now wedged him.

  44. psyclaw 28

    I am not sure what you mean in first paragraph Abbott acting wisely?

    BTW I have had some Indonesian people follow me to ask what is happening with our PM and why won’t he say sorry,in very good English

  45. psyclaw

    The indonesian heirarchy was making it very obvious weeks ago that they did not appreciate the boat policy rhetoric coming from the coalition. Abbott compounded the matter by going to Indonesia and conducting his faux apology tour. How condescending must that have been for the Indonesians to digest. SBY’s body language gave it away, he was not impressed. Of course we have the likes of Mark kenny, Paul Kelly and others claiming that Abbott was the consummate statesman, and it was a triumphant success. Again how bloody condescending.

  46. A point well made by Proff Kingsbury on 24 this morning, indonesia has long been Australia’s “champion” as we have made our entre into the East Asian community of nations.

    So any ultimate cost might be wider than the detriments to the Australia-Indonesia relationship only.

    Shitting on Indonesia is shitting on our relationship with many other nations.

    So why are the business, export, and agricultural peak bodies remaining silent. When will the top end beef exporters who were so vocal against Joe Ludwig find their tongues against Abbott.

  47. [The Piping Shrike ‏@Piping_Shrike 53m
    Guff about Indonesian hurt and upset over the spying avoids that this is really about the Indonesians sticking the boot in. Hard.]

    Yep, what we’ve been saying all along.

    Megaphone diplomacy in opposition coming back to bite Abbott et al in govt.

  50. Confessions

    In opposition and then in govt. Operation sovereign Borders is at the heart of the fallout with Indonesia. It is as simple as that. Of course, you wont hear that from our commentariat

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