The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the others vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.
Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their multi-mode polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.
There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).
In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through a re-count of the ballot papers. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.
UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.
Good Morning
@lenoretaylor: Editorial: Controlling the RI-Oz spat | The Jakarta Post http://t.co/KLT55DyVZm via @jakpost
Bushfire Bill @3295
Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 5:49 am | Permalink
‘
‘
‘
‘
He (Abbott) also broke all the conventions an talking down the national interest in economics and foreign affairs for personal political gain. And now he isn’t even being paid the same back by Labor. Shorten is obeying the very conventions in the national interest that Abbott and Bishop deliberately ignored for partisan political gain. He is reaping Karma. It is very very well deserved, and more.
It is a shame the Country has to pay for his traitorous disgusting immoral and stupid behaviour. But then a lot of people in our country were stupid enough to vote for him, and they deserve any pain headed their way.
—————————————————————-
It strikes me that Bill’s mob are seriously in danger of being the real ‘adults’ in the house.
Morning all. Looks like Tony Abbott, the statesman in speedos, has guaranteed the Indonesians will not help him deliver his asylum seeker policy.
[“How can we do all this if we are not sure that there is no tapping of our military, which is working for the interests of the two countries?” Dr Yudhoyono said.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesia-halts-all-military-cooperation-20131120-2xw20.html#ixzz2lDW9JYfD
Even the Murdoch press wil have trouble spinning this.
On the front page of Indonesian leading newspaper, Kompas, is Mark Textor and his “Pilipino Porn Star” jibe
http://www.kompas.com/
What a debacle. And for some strange reason, the Textor story is absent from the local Murdoch press.
Sprocket
Of course, how silly of me! The Murdoch press will not report the embarrassing bits at all.
BB seen the Mark Kenny Fairfax piece ….? Perhaps better u dont read it….
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-and-shorten-must-unite-on-indonesia-20131120-2xvpn.html
Socrates
Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 6:51 am | Permalink
Morning all. Looks like Tony Abbott, the statesman in speedos, has guaranteed the Indonesians will not help him deliver his asylum seeker policy
.
.
.
.
Even the Murdoch press wil have trouble spinning this.
——————————————————
Mate, the Murdoch Press is the most obnoxious, dishonest, despicable organization on the planet, only matched by the government they own/control.
They will either spin it in the sock-puppet’s favour or ignore it completely.
Mark Kenny on Textor impact in Indonesia.
Bishop live on spy gate 24
Link for Kenny article
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abusive-tweets-from-top-liberal-party-pollster-20131120-2xvwb.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
It’s wall to wall “spy scandal” this morning. The basic story is that “Abbott has not made the right noises”. That’s being polite.
Yes, the relationship is going well.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesia-halts-all-military-cooperation-20131120-2xw20.html
And the classy Mark Textor really helps things along.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abusive-tweets-from-top-liberal-party-pollster-20131120-2xvwb.html
Abbott said it was easy to pick up the phone to speak to the President of tinpot Nauru but in the case of a real international player . . . ?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/pm-try-the-telephone-forget-the-megaphone-20131120-2xvyb.html
This is something the Opposition can factually and continually hammer Turnbull with. For instance, what has been factored into Fraudband costing for maintenance of the copper network over what period of time and to what minimum performance standard?
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/telstras-copper-is-nearly-beyond-repair-and-an-absolute-disgrace-union-20131120-hv3mp.html
And here’s something else.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/carbon-price-achieves-emissions-well-ahead-of-target-20131120-2xvup.html
Hey George, is crawling to Andrew Bolt worth all this?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indigenous-ethnic-groups-unite-against-law-changes-20131120-2xvwe.html
We should be quaking in our boots. Mesma and the US FTA.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-ministger-julie-bishop-talks-on-tpp-us-military-pivot-to-asia-20131120-2xvwc.html
You got sprung, George.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/plans-for-second-george-brandis-library-shelved-20131120-2xuao.html
Bishop said exactly same as before no change
Section 2 . . .
Barney Zwartz has a good article on how the abuses and cover up fallout will land at the feet of ordinary Catholics.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/catholic-church-at-critical-juncture-20131120-2xvf3.html
David Pope’s Ja’mie Abbott again, just because it was so good.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
A good indication of Abbott’s dilemma by Ron Tandberg.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
MUST SEE!! David Rowe with Abbott’s First Test.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
“@LisaMillar: Last question from ABC’s Jane Cowan to @JulieBishopMP – ‘we do not discuss intelligence matters, certainly not allegations””
@firstdogonmoon: RT @ABCNews23: AUSTRALIA IN CARETAKER MODE as police search for missing adults. #auspol http://t.co/b6YTDapPI0
sprocket machine translation of opening sentence from your link:
[Amid rising tension between australia and indonesia, issues related to tapping a politician australia from the liberal party will make comments can memperkeruh atmosphere.]
The machine didn’t do ‘memperkeruh’. I imagine that Abbott would tell us that it means ‘improve significantly’.
Brandis should be congratulated. His proposed changes to the racial discrimination laws has almost brought about world peace…
Look at the list of communities who are against his stupidity.- That’s rather amazing….
Australia’s indigenous, Jewish, Arab, Chinese, Greek, Armenian, Lebanese and Muslim populations
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indigenous-ethnic-groups-unite-against-law-changes-20131120-2xvwe.html#ixzz2lDd96iYB
BK
Rowe is a genius. It is the little touches. The ‘NO’ shaved into the chest hair is standard by now.
But the tiny little detail of the stump cam!
liyana
The Textor stuff, the hanging around with the Joneses the Burka bashing MPs pretty well delineates a critical element of the Coalition: it is largely an anglobubble.
They just don’t get Indonesia. They don’t get the lived discriminatory experiences of non-anglo minorities.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.htmla quick cartoon cartoons appear a bit short today Guess BK is out on a call
Glad you are here BK
And from the Land of the Free –
Some pre-Thanksgiving cartoons.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/20/cartoons-of-the-day-pre-thanksgiving/
The Repugs are losing much ground on their ObamaCare obstruction and lie mongering.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/19/whaddya-know-obamacare-enrollment-surging-in-many-states/
They are bloody hopeless!
http://crooksandliars.com/juanita-jean/yeah-no-under-god-because-he-was-born
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/scotus-refuses-block-texas-abortion
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/20/1257065/-Oprah-talks-about-race-Fox-News-freaks-nbsp-out
Stephen Colbert gets stuck into Michelle Bachman (and others). Note her claim about carbon dioxide.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/colbert-skewers-bachmann-calling-herself
George Zimmerman is not looking in good shape leading up to his trial.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/prosecutor-zimmerman-bail-hearing-says-he
A Seattle chorus – “Every Sperm is Sacred”.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017159785
mari
The Fairfax cartoons for today aren’t up yet for some reason.
Boerwar
Also Abbott’s box was another little detail. Mesma in the “crowd”.
“@702sydney: ‘The Australian government has really not stepped up at all’ says @Greenpeace as Oz man now the only activist still detained in Russia”
Morning bludgers
David Rowe comes up with another beauty today.
OH brought home the hard copy of the Herald Sun. Flicked through the paper and saw a full page by the Dolt. Headline
Hatred of PM is driving betrayal
And side headline
Abbott must take on the ABC
FFS I could only digest the first sentence, but it appears that the ABC is at fault for the mess Abbott is in with Indonesia.
Andrew Bolt is a bona fide disgrace
I should add fhat Mark kenny is not far behind Bolt. His report today is puerile garbage
Thanks BK, the Rowe cartoon is priceless. I agree on all the details, but I love the look on Abbott’s face most.
He also could have drawn him walking back to the pavilion, dismissed for a duck, with SBY the umpire.
I think the LOTO is thinking wisely and/or is getting good advice.
For the first time in years there is an event happening which is “favourable” to Labor and they are letting it run without doing something to change the headlines and remove the oxygen from the issue at hand.
Shorten has carefully allowed Abbott to remain the headline and today it’s on pretty well every masthead. And Abbott and his team and supporters continue to prosecute their own stupidity with aplomb.
Hope I haven’t spoken too soon.
Doors Plibersek now
Do not read Bolt. Indigestion at breakfast is bad.
Where is Bolt comdemning Mark Textor for his highly offensive tweets. For goodness sake, they have made it to the Indonesian media. If Abbott was in the doghouse before, Textor has only made matters 100 times worse
Socrates
I seriously could not get passed the first sentence
Boerwar
the Indonesian/Malay root word is “keruh”, which means dark, feculence, feculent, turbid, muddy, clouded – notably how water can sometimes appear.
the “memper-” construct at the front of a root word often will denote a contextual or allegorical meaning derived from the root word.
so they are saying that Mark Textor’s contribution has somehow made the atmosphere between the two nations a bit more “dark, feculence, feculent, turbid, muddy, clouded”
On previous thread and reposted by BB as it was a great post. Agreed therefore reposting it on this thread.
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 5:49 am | PERMALINK
WeWantPaul, your #3246 was a seriously magnificent comment. Worth repeating:
WeWantPaul
Posted Wednesday, November 20, 2013 at 10:53 pm | PERMALINK
This place has gone seriously crazy. If I didn’t know better I may have thought I had stumbled into an Indonesian blog
.
A spat with Indonesia would usually be largely irrelevant in Australia, but Abbott, is he the stupidest PM the world has ever seen, raised to issues, that if looked at in a reasonable way are both almost irrelevant to super important.
Firstly the naughty cow slaughter and suspension of trade, was made a failure of the labor government of monumental proportions. And the Indonesian relationship given more importance than it really does have on an objective basis.
Then you take Abbott’s stupidity with unauthorised boat arrivals many of whom are going to claim to be refugees and most of whom are actually refugees under current rules. He made this a really really big deal for personal gain. He insulted the Indonesians for the same personal gain. He made the boat people the ‘greatest humanitarian’ crisis in the history of universe and then mishandled the Snowden leak crisis in a way so bad most primary school kids could have done better.
He also broke all the conventions an talking down the national interest in economics and foreign affairs for personal political gain. And now he isn’t even being paid the same back by Labor. Shorten is obeying the very conventions in the national interest that Abbott and Bishop deliberately ignored for partisan political gain. He is reaping Karma. It is very very well deserved, and more.
It is a shame the Country has to pay for his traitorous disgusting immoral and stupid behaviour. But then a lot of people in our country were stupid enough to vote for him, and they deserve any pain headed their way.]
Given Julie Bishop has said exactly the same thing and Textor’s tweets shines a light on the thinking of those close to government.
How worse will it get before it gets better? The $64 000 question.
Victoria
[I seriously could not get passed the first sentence]
That reflects well on you 🙂
At this point they should rename it Operation Brain Dead Sovereign or
Operation Borderline Insane. I am not referring to SBY.
@latikambourke: Obama had to promise Merkel they would not tap her phone in future. Will Abbott have to promise Indonesia the same? http://t.co/rrxNo6muF3
Saw this on twitter. The conservative columnist being none other than the Dolt
[The office of the Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, ordered a copy of a highly classified intelligence report just days before it was leaked to a conservative columnist, says the former Office of National Assessments analyst Andrew Wilkie.]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Anti-Terror-Watch/Downers-office-asked-for-copy-of-leaked-report/2004/06/18/1087245110202.html
For the past few days the resident Abbott team here have argued that no apology is needed and none should be given.
The self confessed self endorser Psephos has confidently concurred.
Yesterday 2 ex Indonesia ambassadors McArthy and Flood, both Howard appointees poo-pooed the idea of apology.
But last night Proff Huw White, arguably the epitome of strategic advisors in the country, and today Proff Damian Kingsbury have strongly and articulately argued the opposite.
Both see the original issue as a lowish grade matter which should have been easily massaged through.
Both state that Abbott has been hopeless and has turned the matter into a significant crisis of growing importance as each hour of his incompetence ticks by.
Both state that a few well chosen words by Abbott to SBY would have nipped it in the bud.
Clearly this is a self wedge by our fool of PM.
As to the ultimate national cost, if SBY was to be the long term leader, things might not look too dire assuming Abbott finally does the right thing.
But here is the greatest risk to our country. What if Indonesia elects a new leader of the same quality as we regrettably did.
Morning all.
[On the front page of Indonesian leading newspaper, Kompas, is Mark Textor and his “Pilipino Porn Star” jibe
http://www.kompas.com/ ]
Like I said, thank heavens the adults are back in charge. Imagine how bad things would be if our govt and its advisors were a bunch of belligerent yobs.
guytaur
if Abbott gave a public apology and reassurance that phone tapping will not occur in future, the indonesian govt would still have a very strained relationship with Him and his govt. JBishop, SMorrison together with Abbott have carried on day in day out about turning the boats back to indonesia and during the election of buying their citizens’ fishing boats. Until the coalition are out of power, i cant see it being sorted. Or course and unless Abbott gives ground to the indonesians on something they may be coveting.
victoria
Yes that is the sticking point for the right wing. All election campaign and up to now has been boats, buy turn or tow.
This is why to repair the relationship Abbott has to at minimum apologise. Better would be to stop putting the “burden” on Indonesia and change his boat policy. That policy has now wedged him.
[Pressure is mounting for a change to penalty rates, with State Minister for Small Business Joe Francis believing it is time to look at scrapping the higher hourly rates for up to 100,000 people.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19936818/axe-hangs-over-penalty-rates/
psyclaw 28
I am not sure what you mean in first paragraph Abbott acting wisely?
BTW I have had some Indonesian people follow me to ask what is happening with our PM and why won’t he say sorry,in very good English
psyclaw
The indonesian heirarchy was making it very obvious weeks ago that they did not appreciate the boat policy rhetoric coming from the coalition. Abbott compounded the matter by going to Indonesia and conducting his faux apology tour. How condescending must that have been for the Indonesians to digest. SBY’s body language gave it away, he was not impressed. Of course we have the likes of Mark kenny, Paul Kelly and others claiming that Abbott was the consummate statesman, and it was a triumphant success. Again how bloody condescending.
A point well made by Proff Kingsbury on 24 this morning, indonesia has long been Australia’s “champion” as we have made our entre into the East Asian community of nations.
So any ultimate cost might be wider than the detriments to the Australia-Indonesia relationship only.
Shitting on Indonesia is shitting on our relationship with many other nations.
So why are the business, export, and agricultural peak bodies remaining silent. When will the top end beef exporters who were so vocal against Joe Ludwig find their tongues against Abbott.
[The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike 53m
Guff about Indonesian hurt and upset over the spying avoids that this is really about the Indonesians sticking the boot in. Hard.]
Yep, what we’ve been saying all along.
Megaphone diplomacy in opposition coming back to bite Abbott et al in govt.
@ldquilts: “Talk To The Hand” — The Australian Government, To Everyone http://t.co/Bk58phcksb via @TheGlobalMail
victoria:
Remember when SBY addressed our Parliament, and Abbott used his reply speech to give him a lecture about boats?
Confessions
In opposition and then in govt. Operation sovereign Borders is at the heart of the fallout with Indonesia. It is as simple as that. Of course, you wont hear that from our commentariat