BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. [During his weekly briefing today on asylum seeker arrivals, Immigration Minister Scott Morrison said he was sure Indonesia would continue with strong border protection measures because it is in Jakarta’s “national interest”.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-22/barnaby-joyce-postpones-trip-to-indonesia/5112380

    and the threats from the libs just keep on coming.

    Do what we say you should do if you know whats good for you.

    How much more thick stupid offensive condescending imperialistic can these clowns get.

  5. William

    [The reason you are attempting to say as much now is that you are a rolled-gold, 24-carat, weapons grade fucking idiot.]

    At the risk of being called a pedant, I feel I must object to this mixing of metaphors.

    24-carat refers to gold at 99.9% purity.
    Rolled gold refers to gold rolled with another metal so it’s only about 60% purity.
    Weapons grade refers to uranium or plutonium which has been enriched to over 90% or so.

    So Tisme can’t be a 99.9% idiot as well as a 90% idiot and a 60% idiot at the same time.

    I trust this has been of value.

  6. [1753
    castle

    During his weekly briefing today on asylum seeker arrivals, Immigration Minister Scott Morrison said he was sure Indonesia would continue with strong border protection measures because it is in Jakarta’s “national interest”.]

    When are they going to learn to stop putting words in the mouths of the Indonesian Government?

  9. [Minister Scott Morrison said he was sure Indonesia would continue with strong border protection measures because it is in Jakarta’s “national interest”.]
    Whose “border protection measures”?

    I’m sure Indonesia would like as many refugees as possible to leave its shores. That is quite apart from putting The Idiot to as much discomfort as possible.

  11. [Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce has postponed a planned trip to Indonesia in light of the ongoing spying scandal.]

    Thank God for that.

    We’d be at war by the end of the week with Barnaby over there giving the Indonesians the benefits of his home-spun wisdom.

  12. I disagree that “fuckwit idiot” should not have words of clarification attached. In this particular case I can see that clarity was merited and necessary.

  16. 1724

    Describing the people currently resident in Australia as “terra nullius residents” not only denies Aboriginal ownership of Australian land at settlement but also current Australian land ownership.

  17. guytaur @ 1754: Has Mr Abbott given any indication in public that he personally was offended by the content of Mr Textor’s tweets? As far as I know, all he has done is call them “tacky”, which is very low on the scale of criticism: I see plenty of comments here on PB which are tacky but basically inoffensive. If Mr Abbott really regarded the Indonesian President as a respected counterpart, he would be deeply offended by the tweets. The lack of public comment to that effect suggests either that he isn’t offended, or hasn’t got the guts to say in public that he is. Either way, it reflects very poorly on him. This is the issue that Mr Shorten should have pursued yesterday.

  18. TLBD briefly

    the phrasing is similar to what is used by most bullies

    to say it at a press conference where it is widely reported and will be picked up on and interpreted for what it is,a veiled threat, invites escalated responses.

  23. pedant

    [Either way, it reflects very poorly on him. This is the issue that Mr Shorten should have pursued yesterday.]

    Agree completely. As it is, Shorten is being congratulated on his Beasley-like response to the fiasco by people like Bolt.

  24. Yesiree Bob @ 1767: In a way it’s a hypothetical, because the Textors of this world are basically a product of our ugly age, but had a Liberal Party associate behaved in the way that Mr Textor did, Mr Menzies would have had him ejected so fast he wouldn’t have known what had hit him. And he would have done it not for reasons of political advantage, but because he had an innate sense of decency (not to mention hygiene).

  28. Polling results from this weekend will be very illuminating.

    Very interested to see what new current affairs questions are asked.

  29. 1770
    castle

    You’re quite right. It’s tantamount to Morrison saying “If you know what’s good for you, you’ll do what suits me….”

    The LNP have to show they at least have the ability to listen to Djakarta…at a bare minimum.

  30. So, Bill Shorten should divert attention from The Idiot to himself?

    If your enemy is committing suicide there is no need to murder him.

  31. [1780
    Compact Crank

    Polling results from this weekend will be very illuminating.

    Very interested to see what new current affairs questions are asked.]

    Yes, it would be good if the pollsters asked the question on everyone’s lips…Do you think Tony Abbott is a complete moron or only a common or garden variety idiot?

  34. TLBD @ 1782: It’s not just a matter of friends and enemies. Bill Shorten should be prepared to stick up for decency in public life.

  38. [So, Bill Shorten should divert attention from The Idiot to himself?

    If your enemy is committing suicide there is no need to murder him.]

    He has wounded himself but not committed suicide.

    They should be laying the slipper into him to keep him down. Textor should have been pursued vigorously and Abbott made to toss him.

  40. briefly

    [Do you think Tony Abbott is a complete moron or only a common or garden variety idiot?]

    If it is the latter, we garden variety idiots will sue. Tony Abbott is a long way more idiotic and dangerous than us.

  42. [1782
    This little black duck

    So, Bill Shorten should divert attention from The Idiot to himself?

    If your enemy is committing suicide there is no need to murder him.]

    Abbott has had the stage to himself and has succeeded in demonstrating for all the world to see that he does not know what to do. He is completely out of his element. His ineptitude is hanging out like the proverbial.

  48. pedant and Diog,

    ALL the attention atm is on Tony Abbott and his failure to cope (unless you are a Mark Kenny).

    Tony Abbott is pouring petrol on the flames. Why on Earth would Bill want to create a distraction!

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