Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates”

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  1. I hope you all caught up with this incredibly important news. Clive says about Xenophon
    [”I understand Nick Xenophon does not have the balance of power … he’s belting his head right now against the bathroom door and he’s looking at how it’s affecting his hair.

    ”I forgive Nick Xenophon for his Brylcreem and his hair dryer.

    ”He’s got the blackest hair, you’d think he’s an Asian,” Mr Palmer said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-says-he-has-nothing-to-hide-on-deal-with-motoring-enthusiasts-attacks-senator-nick-xenophon-20131230-3024t.html

  3. The major reform buzz phrase is Activity Based Funding and the NHS experiment in this was fascinating with inefficient public institutions being driven out of business and efficient public institutions flourishing. Unfortunately the next stage was a disaster – the successful public institutions were allowed to accumulate and invest funds, something for which they had no skill. The result has been a health system running out of money and massive new and underused hospitals.

    The Rudd/Gillard reform has produced a Clayton’s ABF – they did not have the courage to fully implement it.

  4. Ctar1
    We also charge overseas visitors in Australia. A significant drain on hospital budgets are non Medicare eligible patients who disappear on discharge.

  5. OC – I had an experience in the UK prior to the reciprocal agreement when I broke a finger and went to A&E.

    I explained to them that I had Travel Insurance.

    Nurses response WTTE ‘You already pay Tax at home and it’s all too hard to bill your insurance company’.

    She gave me a roll of bandage for the splint, some pills for a couple of days, and told me to come back any day after three if I thought there was a problem.

  6. Royal Commission NOW Abbott.

    [A young worker has died, and another man been injured, in an industrial accident at Fortescue’s Christmas Creek mine.

    It is the second time in four months that a worker has been killed in incidents at the mine in north-west Western Australia’s Pilbara region, owned by Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group.]

  8. On the topic of the Health budget there is an unspoken issue.

    The expectation by Treasury that you have too spend your full budget or you lose it.

    This needs to be addressed, if a Hospital is able to live within its budget it should be rewarded not punished.

    Not sure if things have changed but when Kennett was Premier the way the budget was managed was in effect designed to force a Hospital to spend their full budget.

    There were situations where a large hospital might have one department with spare monies and another department which had run short.

    Yet if the department with the surplus assisted the department which had run short department.

    The government would cut the budget of the department which had the surplus and required the department which had run short to make cuts.

  9. kevin

    [Final scheduled spam run for:]

    You’ll restrain your self for a couple of days?

    😆

    And anyway it’s not spam by any means.

  10. I have just had an interesting conversation about the co-payment from someone in Canberra who works in the area.

    The medicare payment to doctors used to rise by 70c a year. Until 2013 when Wayne Swan and cabinet decided to freeze the payment to doctors for 4 years. The equates to around $660 million dollars “saved”.

    Now Tony has the Doctor’s groups demanding he reinstate the yearly increase, but he needs to find $660 million to pay for it.

    It just happens that $5-6 per visit up to 12 will raise, you guessed it, $660 million.

  11. Sent to me by a friend – The Archdruid Report: A Christmas Speculation

    Basically it postulates that many in the Republican Party right are actually devil worshippers because they advocate policies that are diametrically opposed to the teachings of Christ. It then suggests that they use Ayn Rand as “a covert way … to identify themselves to one another in the supposedly Christian (and just as supposedly conservative) GOP of today”.

    An interesting idea, although I doubt it’s correct. However, it does raise the question, what of those people in Australian politics who proclaim themselves Christian but actually advocate policies that are totally the opposite of their faith? Are they secret devil worshippers? Could Cory or Scott be motivated by Lucifer’s teachings?

    By the way, I’m not religious and it all sounds a bit crack pot to me.

  12. It’s hardly spoken of, but many hospitals and nursing homes in Victoria were very badly hit by the GFC.

    Many of them either held money in bond for nursing home patients or had acquired ‘surpluses’ which they’d invested in non-banking institutions.

    So many of them lost millions when the crash came.

    On the other hand, I know of big regional hospitals that have never not run at a loss (going back thirty years). There doesn’t seem to be much action taken by the Health Department to try and fix the situation.

    One of the problems apparently (for regions) is that health service awards for workers are budgetted for using Melbourne workforces as a template. As the workforce in rural and regional hospitals are generally older and more established than those in the city, their workforce costs are higher, but their budgets don’t assume that. When the awards change, the impact of these changes are thus far greater for regional hospitals, without a corresponding adjustment in budgets.

  14. Just had a call from our local GP checking up on a problem my mother had before Christmas. That’s really “old-fashioned” service.

  15. Just on a bit of a tangent. Whenever there is an outbreak of cold weather or people are caught out by the cold (e.g that ship stuck in the ice off Antarctica), the Miranda Devines and Piers Akermans of the world proclaim that global warming a fraud.

    Well maybe this ‘proves’ global warming:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=meandecile&period=12month&area=nat

    An entire continent has a warm year, mostly very much above average and large areas were the warmest on record. It doesn’t ‘prove’ global warming but it certainly supports the hypothesis that something is happening. If nothing was happening, some areas would be warmer, some cooler and some average. ‘Hot’ and ‘cold’ records are still occuring, but worldwide in recent decades the former outnumber the latter by at least 3 to 1.

  16. [So that’s the basis for Dutton’s “it’s Labor’s fault”.]

    Maybe in the peanut he uses as a brain. It is a funny coincidence that the submission to the Audit Con-ition just happened to find the exact amount of money Abbott needs to pay to keep the medical lobby off his back.

  17. ruawake

    I have never heard Dutton speak a whole sentence that doesn’t include Labor-bashing. “Peanut-brain” is complimentary. He doesn’t think, he just regurgitates.

  18. Greg Hunt – the anti-Environment Minister
    Christopher Pyne – the anti-Education Minister
    Peter Dutton – the anti-Health Minister
    Julie Bishop – Minister for pissing off our neighbours

  20. rossmcg

    I wasn’t really comparing you to Tisme. Nobody here deserves that, well maybe one or two 😆

    Actually you raised a good point. Maybe the Libs, like Pyne with Gonski, may push for it then withdraw.

  21. Rua

    Do the boneheads in the Coalition know that the numbering system allows for infinite number of numerals to the decimal place?

    Why not increase the Medicare levy from the 1.5% to raise a further $660m?

    We will see what transpires!

    As it stands it is a NEW TAX and an Attack on Medicare.

  23. [As it stands it is a NEW TAX and an Attack on Medicare.]

    Plus it is being reported as such, the cartoonists are having a ball. I guess nobody is authorised to kill the story until Tony is off piste?

  27. Fairfax is reporting that Sydney petrol prices have hit a high around 166c a litre today due to falling dollar and high oil,price. And the prediction is more rises.
    How will the Tories spin that? Labor’s mess?

  29. I was actually referring to Tripodi. The ABC has done a piece on his dealings with the Calabria Club.
    Peter Jones has accused him of double dealing.
    Students of the Terrigals will find that amusing

  31. rossmcg

    [Fairfax is reporting that Sydney petrol prices have hit a high around 166c a litre today]

    Just when my silver thing has decided it needs 80 litres of 95 Octane.

    I’ll close my eyes …

  33. The great unwashed will only have one person to blame for the price of petrol, the piste Abbott.

    Maybe he will consult with the Premier of WA over fuel watch…. hah ha. 😆

  34. Steve and CTar1
    I sympathise.
    Another benefit of having recently left the workforce is that is I am saving a packet on running my car.

  36. rosscmg

    I’ve done same for the second time.

    Not driving as much, less need for new shirts and ties, no two coffees and a muffin and no take away lunch.

    Life becomes so much less expensive.

  37. [I filled up my tank today @1.62 per litre. It cost $102.]

    Holy crap! I filled up my car today and paid 152c/L, $80. But I live in country WA!!

  43. When it comes to petrol prices it all comes down to who pays for it. While working in Darwin I had my first $100+ tank fill. Work was paying ,so my reaction ? “Wow my first $100 fill. Amazing ” . Something to tell everyone. A few months later back in Perth I was almost in tears as it went up to $96 . Did I mention I was paying for that one ? 🙂

  46. ruawake@1192

    Funny how every single petrol station on the lower Nth Shore, Sydney is charging $1.64.9 every single one.

    Just as well we have the ACCCs assurance there is no collusion between oil companies.

    Otherwise I would think there was. 😛

  47. Paaptsef

    I had my crisis nearly 10 years ago and got the bike the next year. I used to ride the bike to work but now that is struggling to get a workout too.

  48. [Funny how every single petrol station on the lower Nth Shore, Sydney is charging $1.64.9 every single one.]

    That’s incredible. Even in a relatively closed shop like here, which is just begging for collusion between the operators, the prices can vary between the three petrol stations.

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