BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The Track is back – but with only two new poll results to go on, and no sign so far of any change since before the break.

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 41
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  1. My mother has just turned on her heater because she’s feeling cold. This is why you really do have to check the elderly on a hot (or a cold) day.

  2. “@mpesce: Almost all food crops of any sort will die after 7 continuous days of 40C. How many years from that is South Australia? Victoria? WA?”

  3. Bill Shorten’s latest email indicates that the Medicare ‘Co Payment’ will be an issue Laor will campaign on in the Griffith by-election: Even more important is this: despite promising that Medicare was safe before the election, Tony Abbott’s government plans to charge Australians to see a bulk billing GP. Local Liberal candidate for Griffith – former AMA head, Bill Glasson – supports

    Good. That should be a winning point. No one wants Medicare wound back apart from vested interests in private health. Calling it a ‘tax’ – way to go, even if not accurate. Accuracy never troubled Labor’s opponents in politics or the media.

    This is what Labor should be giving strongest emphasis to: “If we do nothing, we could soon see the foundations of our health system undermined. The most vulnerable Australians will be forced to pay to see a GP.

    If that happens, it would be the beginning of the end of Medicare as we know it. So we have to demonstrate that any threat to Medicare will cost the Abbott Government too much politically.

  4. poroti

    The event for Shorten as advertised in the West is February 14.

    He is addressing a breakfast at a local hotel under the banner “Leadership Matters” and the event is sponsored by the West, Woodside and Murdoch Uni.

    If you have a spare $98 you could buy yourself a very expensive breakfast or if you can get 9 other ‘corporate’ friends you can have a whole table to 10 to yourself. No discount I notice.

    The interesting thing is that just a few weeks into his leadership he is actually taking this kind of stuff on and part of the blurb says….”Join the man who wants to become Australia’s next prime minister for breakfast as he talks about leadership and his plans to return Labor to power.”

    For his critics here, this action seems pretty proactive to me.

    I am not a Shorten fan as such, but perhaps the days of the celebrity leader/messiah are over for Labor?

  12. Trolled by the BulletTrainParty

    it was an endorsement by rudd impersonator Anthony Ackroyd. Mind you, a bullet train on the East Coast would be a very good idea imho.

  16. [Mark Pesce ‏
    Almost all food crops of any sort will die after 7 continuous days of 40C. How many years from that is South Australia? Victoria? WA?]

  17. Re earlier discssion.

    I found it curious fhat on the same day, Truss was out and about as acting PM, and Abbott was at the PMXI game doing the coin toss. Weird

  19. Oh dear…

    [Stephen Smiley ‏@StephenSmiley 3 mins ABC understands @LaraGiddings has sacked Greens Ministers @NickMcKim and @CassyOConnorMP from cabinet. Premier speaking at 2 pm #politas]

  20. Life is one long holiday for Abbott. After three years of being in our faces pretty much 24/7 he rarely appears in public these days. When he dopes it’s for trivia like having a surf or hanging out at the cricket. The serious stuff is left for others to handle. He’s the Claytons PM, kept only for show, trotted out for the odd video message just so we’ll know he’s still alive – somewhere.

    So, the big question – will our alleged PM appear on Australia Day? Will he attend a citizenship ceremony in Canberra or maybe in his own electorate? Or will he just make another video wishing us all a happy day and including a few anecdotes about his own ten quid pom origins and, of course, his days as a rugby player? I’m going with the video.

  21. sprocket

    [Mind you, a bullet train on the East Coast would be a very good idea imho.]

    If the UK can’t get HS2 up we’ve got bugger all chance.

  22. [For his critics here, this action seems pretty proactive to me.

    I am not a Shorten fan as such, but perhaps the days of the celebrity leader/messiah are over for Labor?]

    We live in hope.

  23. Remember this?

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Children_Overboard

    [“A number of children have been thrown overboard, again with the intention of putting us under duress” Ruddock told a media conference on October 7, 2001.[1]

    Australian Prime Minister John Howard said on talkback radio “I can’t comprehend how genuine refugees would throw their children overboard”. [2]

    The military tried to correct the record but the federal government refused to hear ..

    …the claims that children were thrown overboard were disproved…

    .. the Government directed that key staff not appear before the committee to give evidence.]

  24. cf the Portuguese ‘cangaru’, I would not hang someone on the ‘evidence’:

    (a) The illustration might be of a kangaroo. But then again, it might not.

    (b) Even if it were a kangaroo, there are macropods in New Guinea. The Portuguese explored it in the 16th Century.

    BTW, Indonesians who refer to Australia as ‘kangaroo land’ obviously don’t know that Indonesia also has kangaroos.

  25. It’s very hard to see a High Speed Rail getting up for Eastern Australia. The ‘corridor’ that it would serve, even if defined at its greatest extent to include SE Qld, Newcastle-Sydney-Wollongong, Canberra and Melbourne-Geelong would have a population of about 14 to 15 million in an area comparable to that of France (population 66 million) and larger than that of Japan (127 million). It would certainly be great once it was up and running but who would lay out the tens of billions to build it? Not Governments any more and given the high risks and multi-decade investment and payback, it’s hard to see private money building it.

  27. Lizzie, once a regular customer of mine got me to isolate her gas cooker as she was scared her dementia suffering mother would leave it on and either gas herself or blow up the house! Fran, Brett Lee had Alan Jones as his ‘mentor’

  30. outside left

    Very understandable precaution. My mother’s section of the house only has electricity and the safety switch has had a workout several times!!

  32. The Labor government may have been all over the place w.r.t. to asylum seekers but that’s an apple to the orange of the Coalition’s cynical manipulation of the issue over the past two decades.

  33. Dio

    [Most people would pay good money never to visit Birmingham.]

    It and Leeds are not the ideal getting off place.

    HS2 should go all the way to Waverly/Edinburgh or even Aberdeen.

  34. If you saw it through the technical difficulties good presser by Shorten on the campaign trail in Griffith.

    Lots of mention of the tax on GP visits

  36. Oh well done Tony and Joe!
    [Dismal Australian employment figures, full time job losses a worry

    The Australian employment change for December came at -22.6K vs 10K expected and 21K last, with the jobless rate at 5.8% vs 5.8% expected and 5.8% last. In terms of full time employment change, December saw -31.6K vs +15.5K last, with part-timers +9K vs +5.5K last. The participation rate came at 64.6% vs 64.8% exp and 64.8% last.

    The data is a big blow for the Australian economy, which continues to see large numbers of full-time jobs being lost. The 30+K deviation between what was expected and the actual data was only balanced out by an increase in part-time jobs over the summer period. The participation rate saw also a decrease of 0.2%, which is discouraging]

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=16df8a92-7a93-4ddf-a22f-d00cc1edb49e

    The Aussie dollar is, dare I say it, plummeting as a result of those figures, now down to 88.25 and still falling.

    I’m so glad the adults are in charge now and are going to fix the economy and create a zillion new jobs. What would things be like if they weren’t there?

  37. Dio

    [Surely Glasgow and Edinburgh should have been the destinations.]

    Yep, the politicians understand but lack the gonads at the moment.

    Lots of borrowing required.

  39. leone

    A little while back we had a discussion about Labor pushing on the Liberal’s promise to create jobs and whether it was good timing. I thought (and still think) that it may be premature. However if opposition are sure that the negative predictions are accurate, then getting the government to recommit to that promise may be a good tactic.

    We have the prior example of Labor doing itself over with repeated promises of a surplus.

  44. BTW, Indonesians who refer to Australia as ‘kangaroo land’ obviously don’t know that Indonesia also has kangaroos

    just the tree ones I think….which are a tad possumish

  45. CTar1

    As long as the power supply is not disrupted, we will get through the next few days, but have to say it has been a shocker so far.
    Had to take youngest to work in local shopping centre. It was packed to the rafters. Daresay people think going to the shops is a good pastime on a stinking hot day

  48. vic

    [As long as the power supply is not disrupted]

    Last time I can recall it in Canberra was 1985.

    I’m still capable of sleeping on the floor.

    Keep cool!

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