BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

ReachTEL plus Essential plus Morgan equals no change at all in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.

ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,468 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. According to a twitter report I read earlier, it is alleged that a Navy person actually piloted the boat to the beach where the ASs disembarked.

    This would mean the story perpetrated by the Government that any breach of Indonesia’s borders was completely inadvertant is a lie.

    While Psephos view that the successful turnback is all that matters to the voters may be true, if this report is true, then the Government will have bought themselves a whole lot more trouble with our Indonesian neighbours.

  2. Personally, why anyone pays any attention to asylum seekers is beyond my wildest imagination.

    I could not care less about them. I do not say this in selfish terms, I am just saying that this is a global phenomenen and we simply cop a small slice of the hail. No big deal in how it affects our lifestlye.

    I care about stuff such as making Australia a republic, Econonomy, Education, scrapping the states, HSR and the like

  3. Psephos@2396

    Anything that stops boat arrivals will be a win for Morrison and Abbott.

    Until those boats start getting into the hands of people smugglers and used for the trip to CI. 👿

    Morrison’s win will be short lived.

  4. US – Victoria has fixed 4 year terms & a hung Parliament with
    a rogue speaker – Smith who has ejected Labor politicians for 5 weeks to so as not to lose votes

    Geoff Shaw – a happy clapper with questionable expense accounts especially use of his government car – who expressed his lack of confidence in the speaker – represents Frankston

    The Liberals are on the nose

  6. Bemused – the broken manhole cover was unlabelled so the council wasn’t interested.

    Tripping over said manhole cover would have meant falling into oncoming traffic travelling at 70kmh which might have excited Vicroads lawyers

  7. [The ABC has reacted to sustained criticism of its asylum seeker coverage with an edict to staff that they should not ”embellish” or add ”any flourish” to claims of mistreatment by Australian border protection forces.
    Head of ABC news content Gaven Morris sent the directive to the organisation’s top brass on Friday morning after a week of constant pressure on the national broadcaster, including an extraordinary attack by Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who suggested the ABC was being unpatriotic in its reports of asylum seekers’ allegations against Australian defence and border protection personnel.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-boss-gaven-morris-responds-to-news-criticism-with-edict-to-staff-20140201-31u5b.html#ixzz2s4kjs1ga

  8. [That is an extremely callous remark.]

    Yes it is, but it’s true and someone needs to say it.

    [If it is true, and I don’t know that it is, then they were put in the position of being lost by the actions of the Australian govt. ]

    If it’s true, they died because (a) they tried to come to Australia by boat without authorisation, knowing full well that they were not authorised to do so, and knowing full well the dangers involved ;(b) scuttled their boat at sea in an effort to force the RAN to rescue them and bring them to Australia; and (c) having been given a safe means of returning to Indonesia, they walked off into the jungle rather than staying with their boat, which had food and water on board, where they would have been quickly found.

  9. Psephos, if as seems likely, the boats do stop, their traction as a vote winner will quickly dissipate. I really cant see, 2.5 years hence, that getting any significant kudos for the LNP. Even more so if the occasional boat does get thru. I think the public have had a gut full of boats and are more concerned about other issues. There again, if one of those orange lifeboats turns up on the high seas with a dozen or so dead bodies on board I suspect we would be in a very different ball game

  13. Greensborough Growler@2401

    According to a twitter report I read earlier, it is alleged that a Navy person actually piloted the boat to the beach where the ASs disembarked.

    This would mean the story perpetrated by the Government that any breach of Indonesia’s borders was completely inadvertant is a lie.

    While Psephos view that the successful turnback is all that matters to the voters may be true, if this report is true, then the Government will have bought themselves a whole lot more trouble with our Indonesian neighbours.

    That is not what I read.

    How is the Navy person supposed to have got back to their ship?

  17. [2281
    don

    I don’t know if it is apocryphal, but I’ve heard that tourism in the NT surges every time a croc takes a tourist.]

    I genuinely don’t know, but it would not surprise me.

  18. [Also we could be breaking International Law:]

    Ho-hum. This has been a staple of boatist propaganda for 20 years now. Nothing has ever happened. As I’ve said many times, the Refugee Convention does not require Australia to admit any person to its territory or accept any person’s claims to be a refugee. The Law of the Sea Convention requires us to rescue people at sea, which we always do.

  19. billie@2406

    Bemused – the broken manhole cover was unlabelled so the council wasn’t interested.

    Tripping over said manhole cover would have meant falling into oncoming traffic travelling at 70kmh which might have excited Vicroads lawyers

    I would have thought if it was unlabelled the council would have been even more interested!
    I can’t say I take a particular interest in manhole covers, but a great number are labelled.
    Whose was it in the end?

  20. Just Me @2415

    It is a shame Phil Cleary even won Wills.

    If Bob Hawke had not been such a stuck up self-absorbed egomaniac in his last term, the transition to Keating would have been seamless and Labor would have held it. Hawke left a good a 6 months later than he should have.

    No one would even have known of Phil Cleary’s existence.

    It would have made a referendum success so much easier.

  21. @Psephos/2418

    Now your being completely silly.

    Rescuing people at Sea is one thing, dumping them back into the Sea is entirely different matter.

    I see you gone so far to the right of AS Policy.

  23. GG at 2401 wrote……According to a twitter report I read earlier, it is alleged that a Navy person actually piloted the boat to the beach where the ASs disembarked.

    The twitter report is 100% wrong or at least there is no evidence to support it and reports that contradict it. And it seems ridiculous.

  25. Oh did you forget that Malaysia deal got to the high court?

    Or did you completely forget that in your rant… Psephos?

    Nothing happening in 20 years my butt…

  26. Don’t know, Graeme and don’t care but the local sate members office had the right list of phone numbers even though the Liberal database of electors shows me as a Labor voter

  29. [Yes it is, but it’s true and someone needs to say it.]

    Its not true, cos whatever part they played in their own fate they were also dumped in the middle of nowhere as a result of Australian Govt policy.

    [boatist]

    Wow … Andrew Bolt could have said that.

  31. As per report

    [The Indonesian crew who had captained the scuttled boat was ordered to pilot the lifeboat back to Indonesia. They travelled through international waters under escort by Border Protection Command until they arrived close to Indonesian territory.]

  34. victoria @2433

    Its hardly dominating the headlines, is it?

    Labor’s margin after Saturday will still be in double digits most likely. Julie Bishop’s gaffe today all but confirmed it.

  37. [Out of interest, if the boat load was Jewish people fleeing Iran or Russia, would you still have the same view.]

    It must be getting late, now it’s silly hypotheticals time. We’ve been over this a dozen times. If there is an organised smuggling racket bringing thousands of people here to game our immigration system, it should be opposed, no matter who they are or where they come from.

    (This is a poor choice of hypothetical, by the way, because Jews who want to leave their country of residence have automatic right of entry to Israel.)

  39. I reckon the ReachTel ABC bias poll is pretty correct, give or take a few points, but the Twitter report our navy landed on Indonesian soil is probably rubbish.

  40. On the Republic referendum debacle.

    I hold Malcolm Turnbull personally responsible.

    If we ever get to the point of another referendum & Turnbull opens his mouth I’ll personally hit him over the head with the armchair he’s supposed to be sitting in.

  44. @Psephos/2437

    And I’m telling you it won’t be stopped, simple fact is as long as there is war, poverty, and other important that is not actually important issues to people like yourself it seems, there will always be boats, small numbers, large numbers you name it…

    Next you be you actually agree with Sean.

  45. deblonay @2442

    I’m sorry, what scare campaign? Tony has been lying, screaming, throwing tantrums and degrading all of us for so many years now. They had a policy until recently of perhaps charging $6 to go to the doctor, but axed it as they hoped to shore up support in Griffith by doing it, they will revisit it after next week – of that I am sure. I doubt people in Griffith will buy it.

  46. Turnbull led the republican faction & made sure his model got up even though most Australians wanted the direct election proposal.

    How anyone could judge a model where the president needed 2/3 vote of parliament to be elected but could be removed by a simple majority ( ie sacked by the PM of the day before the PM could be sacked by the president) as superior has rocks in their head. Guaranteed constitutional crisis somewhere down the line.

  48. The referendum failed because of

    1. Direct election eff-wits, and

    2. Howard deviously insisting that it be a single referendum on one particular model, instead of having a vote first on the general question of becoming a republic, then some time later a second round of voting on which model to move to. Howard knew full well that the one-off take-it-or-leave-it approach would be the best chance of it failing, as it did. This is one failure you can’t pin on Turnbull. I still respect him as far as they way he conducted himself in that debate.

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