Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 4:30 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mari/469

    Here is one from Possum:

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 26s

    Nah mate, Sir Prancealot RT @richardtuffin: Dame Christine of Pynedom… #GameOfTones

    Yeah saw it, Poss and I follow each other, so clever

  2. O dear apparently Tone is re-introducing Knights and Dames therefore from now on i should be known as

    Sir Dame the Hon Mexi-de-Beemer, the Duke/Duchess of Victoria Lord/Lady of Melbourne and proud owner of dragons and Lions.

    And an occasional talker of crap

  3. [Any chance that Quentin Bryce, an avowed Republican, will refuse a Dameship?
    ]

    I hope so — would be good if Cosgrove did too but I half expect him to don powdered wigs.

  8. @guytaur/504

    Nah, that’s George Brandis job.

    Possum new name,

    Sir Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 3m

    Wonder if we can attach some mutual obligation to this Knighthood racket

  10. it is no joke. the Prime Minister’s statement

    [On my recommendation, Her Majesty the Queen has amended the Letters Patent constituting the Order of Australia. Knights and Dames in the Order of Australia will be approved by Her Majesty on the recommendation of the Prime Minister. There may be up to four Knights or Dames created in any year. This special recognition may be extended to Australians of “extraordinary and pre-eminent achievement and merit” in their service to Australia or to humanity at large. Henceforth, the serving Governor-General will be the principal Knight or Dame in the Order of Australia. The first new Dame will be the outgoing Governor-General. The first new Knight will be the incoming Governor-General. It is fitting that the Queen’s representative be so honoured. Invariably, Governors-General have been extraordinary and pre-eminent servants of the Australian people. My intention is that this new award will go to those who have accepted public office rather than sought it; and who can never, by virtue of the office they have held, entirely return to private life. The Chairman of the Order of Australia Council will be consulted on any such recommendation. This change will not affect existing Companions, Officers or Members of the Order of Australia. I congratulate Her Excellency the Honourable Dame Quentin Bryce AD CVO and the Governor-General Designate, General Peter Cosgrove AC MC, on this acknowledgement of their service to our country]

  11. It looks like Thomson done wrong but lets get it in perspective – his ‘fraud’ amounted to about a pack of fags a day. Abbott on the other hand tried to ‘extort’ nearly $10,000 over two months promoting his book ‘Battlelines’.

    His penalty? nothing nil nix nada – a big fat zero

  12. Very disappointed in Bryce. Perhaps she was persisting in being gracious and avoiding involving herself in a political bunfight as she leaves, but still…

    Disappointed.

  13. Am I delusionally or is this a flat-out monstrously dumb decision. This govt has done nothing since the election except whine and now re-introduce honours. Surely even the lib focus groups didn’t sign off on this one.

  14. And I thought Cosgrove was unfortunate enough as GG, but being “Sir Peter” for the next 5+ years is … ick ick ick.

  15. [This special recognition may be extended to Australians of “extraordinary and pre-eminent achievement and merit” in their service to Australia or to humanity at large. ]

    ex-NSW Liberal Premier Robin Askin found this criteria was met by paper bags full of loot (allegedly)

  18. Any chance that Quentin Bryce, an avowed Republican, will refuse a Dameship?

    I expect that she and Peter Cosgrove will have been consulted beforehand so I don’t think so. A bit disappointed that Ms Bryce has probably accepted but be that as it may I thank her for her graceful and dignified service and wish her a happy retirement.

  19. [My intention is that this new award will go to those who have accepted public office rather than sought it; and who can never, by virtue of the office they have held, entirely return to private life.]

    That cuts out pollies, but leaves all the billionaires who contribute to the Liberal Party.

  21. Sir Johannes “Joh” Bjelke-Petersen

    Sir William McMahon

    Sir Henry Bolte

    Sir Robert Askin

    Sir John Winston Howard

    Sir Arthur Sinodinos

  22. In defense of Bryce being made such an offer from her maj would be pretty hard to reject, sure turning Tone down is one thing but if anything she would see it as an offer from her boss.

  23. lizzie @519

    The report in The Australia however says this.

    [He did not rule out politicians becoming a knight or dame, saying he didn’t want to pre-empt who may be considered worthy of the honour.]

  24. “The existing companions, officers and members of the Order of Australia continue as they should but this will be a higher honour.”

    “Continue as they should” but everyone who has received an AO or other award should now feel one rank more inferior than they did earlier today.

  25. Yes, Bryce accepting is really disappointing altho I’ll try to think of her accepting graciously for the sake of future women GGs.

    There goes a Republic in my lifetime, damn it.

  26. Considering how knights conducted themselves then maybe someone like Merit Andrews would be fit for such an honor.

  28. [He did not rule out politicians becoming a knight or dame, saying he didn’t want to pre-empt who may be considered worthy of the honour.]

    Of course he couldn’t. We all know he’s got Howard in mind. The others are window dressing.

  31. [Bill Shorten ‏@billshortenmp 6m
    Good to see the Government has a plan for Knights and Dames – where’s the plan for jobs, health & education? #TwistedPriorities]

    Will be hard for him fronting up for Ma in Law’s ceremony

  32. BH

    [Of course he couldn’t. We all know he’s got Howard in mind. The others are window dressing.]

    Yep. Little Caesar will become royalty after all.

  34. lizzie

    [Bugger. Actually, bugger the whole thing. It’s so artificial and nauseating by Abbott.]

    My thoughts exactly. Especially the nausea.

  37. Jackol, what about abolishing NG on investment properties and CGT discounts, just to take the steam out of the market?

  38. [ Surely this facetious crap will be the last insult this cretin can inflict on the Australian people? ]

    No, no no no no no no…… Bishop the Eldest will get one for services to Parliament, Old Persons, and the Distilled Fuels Industry.

  40. Tweet of the day

    “@ClrLindaScott: Racism is back & knights are on the horizon. No wonder there are bulls running down King St Newtown today! #nswpol #auspol”

  45. I really should stop thinking about this as it’s just making me angry and sick.

    But what about Australian of the Year? Since Knighthoods are now a “higher honour” will the potentially 4 knights that year be a step up from Australian of the Year awards? Where does the significance and symbolism lie?

    I’m not a huge fan of these kinds of awards although in their agnostic Australian sense they seem ok, but just pushing the applecart over because Abbott wants to make his mark (a la pissing on the tree) and salute Mother England. Give me a farking break.

  46. At least there are only a maximum of four dames and sirs a year.

    And why anyone is remotely surprised Quentin Bryce accepted is beyond me.

  49. [Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 3m
    Abbott’s unwinding the ALP’s achievements of 40 years. He’s just done Whitlam. It’s now 1969, it’s raining & Graham Kennedy is on the radio.]

  50. I’m a bit of a hypocrite. My ancestry is full of inherited titles altho 1 lesser being who sailed in Lord Nelson’s fleet and was responsible for first sighting the Dutch off the UK coast deserved his slap on the shoulder with a sword.

    Such inbreeding tho – glad my line came out here

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